The climatization of global politics: introduction to the special issue

Climate change now constitutes a major issue in world politics, intersecting with and shaping many other political domains, and wider patterns of social and economic life. Global climate governance is also no longer restricted to multilateral negotiations under the UN Climate Convention: it increasingly extends beyond the international climate regime to climatize other areas of global politics. This concept of climatization points to a powerful but uneven process of extension, translation, and social coordination, as climate change becomes the frame of reference through which other policy issues and forms of global activism are mediated and hierarchized. This special issue brings together contributions on both theoretical aspects and empirical cases of the climatization process. The introduction sets out a conceptual framework to systematize these observations and guide further research. First, we identify the preconditions for, and driving forces behind, climatization. We then sketch the contours of an emergent ‘climate logic’ that reshapes affected domains, and examine the wider implications of climatization for global politics. Beyond the climate case, we hope this will provide new ways to observe and understand contemporary transformations of global society and global governance.

Drainage of organic soils and GHG emissions: validation with country data

Drainage of large areas with organic soils was conducted over the past century to free up land for agriculture. A significant acceleration of such trends was observed in recent decades in Southeast Asia, largely driven by drainage of tropical peatlands, an important category of organic soils, for cultivation of oil palm. This work presents the methods and main results of a new methodology developed for FAOSTAT, whereby the overlay of dynamic maps of land cover and the use of information about histosols allows the production of a global annual dataset of drained area and emissions over a time series, covering the period 1990–2019. This is an improvement over the existing FAO approach, which had produced only a static map of drained organic soils for the year 2000. Results indicate that drained area and emissions increased by 13 % globally since 1990, reaching 24 million hectares in 2019 of drained organic soils, with world total emissions of 830 Mt of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent. Of these totals, the largest contribution was from the drainage of tropical peatlands in Southeast Asia, generating nearly half of global emissions. Results were validated against national data reported by countries to the UN Climate Convention and against the well-established literature. Overall, the validation yielded a good agreement with these sources. FAOSTAT estimates explained about 60 % of the variability in official country-reported data. The predicted emissions were virtually identical – with over 90 % of explained variability – to official data from Indonesia, currently the top emitting country by drained organic soils. Also, calculated emissions factors for oil palm plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia were in the same range and very close to emissions factors derived from detailed field measurements. This validation suggests that the FAO estimates may be a useful and sound reference in support of countries reporting needs. Data are made available through open access via the Zenodo portal (Tubiello and Conchedda, 2020) with the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3942370.

Estimates of greenhouse gases emissions reduction potential in Kazakhstan by 2030 in connection with its commitments in the Paris Climate Agreement

Prospects for achieving the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of Kazakhstan in the framework of the Paris climate convention was assessed through projections of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions of 31 large energy enterprises by 2030. The total CO2 emissions of these enterprises reach 86,9 million tons or 26,5 % of the country’s GHG emissions. For projection of the GHG emissions of the selected power plants three scenarios - “business as usual” (trend), “moderate modernization” and “full modernization” - were designed. “The unconditional target” would remain unachievable in the “business as usual” and even “moderate modernization” scenarios. However, the scenario of “full modernization” allows reaching “the unconditional target” with a good reserve. Moreover, this scenario allows reaching “the conditional target”. Our assessment of potential for reduction of the GHG emissions shows that Kazakhstan’s commitments in the Paris climate convention are very responsible. To meet these commitments technological modernization of the entire industrial sector of the country would be required. It could be achieved only by full mobilization of material and financial resources.

An attempt to assess the monetary value of carbon absorbed in the Polish forest sector

Forests and forest management play a vital role in capture and storage of carbon dioxide, which contributes to mitigation of climate change. Forests are not only a natural carbon sink. Proper forest management can enhance biomass production, providing wood to be converted into e.g. construction timber, paper and furniture as well as wood fuels and, as a result, considerably enlarge this carbon sink. Poland, being a party of the Climate Convention and Kyoto Protocol and a member of the EU is obliged to provide yearly reports on carbon emissions and sequestration, including the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, of which forestry is the leading constituent. Forests, with the sequestration rate at a level of 3.93 t CO2·ha−1 form practically the only important carbon sink in the LULUCF category. Unfortunately the LULUCF sector has not been yet included in the current climate policy framework. The purpose of the study was an attempt to estimate the hypothetical value of carbon stored in forestry, resulting from the reported quantities of the emitted and sequestered carbon. The calculations were based on figures included in the National Inventory Report for Poland, reported yearly to the Secretariat of the Climate Convention. Among the forestry carbon sources/sinks, reported annually, the sequestration resulting from forest management significantly exceeds the net sequestration from afforestation/deforestation activities. Average data from recent years show that forest management is a net CO2 sink, with 12 Mt CO2·y−1 (above the forest management reference level, FMRL), and when combined with the carbon pool change resulting from afforestation/deforestation activities, it can be regarded as a net carbon sink sequestering nearly 15 Mt CO2·y−1. That value, when multiplied by the price of carbon emission allowance (e.g. EUA), could be a source of over 80 mill Euros per year, if used as a commodity on the emissions market. Due to high price volatility of CO2 emission allowances, the calculated profits are hypothetical, and the EU Emissions Trading System does not include forestry. These potential gains can become realistic after the LULUCF sector has been included in the emissions trading system.

Air Emissions of Selected Substances from Particular Sectors Including Metallurgy in Poland

This article presents data on the anthropogenic air emissions of selected substances (CO2, SO2, total suspended particles (TSP), dioxins and furans (PCDD/F), Pb and Cd) subject to reporting under the Climate Convention (UNFCCC) or the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (UNECE CLRTAP). It also presents the national emissions of these substances in 2014 by the major source categories and defines the share of metal production in these emissions. Analysis is based on national emission inventory reports. Most important source of air emission in case of CO2 and SO2 is 1.A.1 Energy industries category. TSP and PCDD/F are emitted mainly from fuel combustion in small sources (i.a. households). Emission of heavy metals (Pb and Cd) is connected mostly with 1.A.2. Manufacturing industries and construction category. Metallurgy is significant source of emission only for lead and cadmium from among all considered substances. The shares of particular sectors in the national emissions of given pollutants are important, in view of the possible reduction measures and the determination in which industries they could bring about tangible results.

Paris, India, and China: Shaping the Global Agenda

The climate negotiations in Paris mark a geopolitical shift with China and India setting the global agenda as they have made climate change an integral part of their transformation. This shift opens up of possibilities for new forms of international cooperation that are not based on the 20-year old Climate Convention. The emerging global consensus is reflected in the movement away from the narrow focus on “environmental risk management” to “economic growth within ecological limits”. Incorporating in the new Agreement, elements of sharing prosperity, or innovative technology, and not only responsibility for emissions reduction will be the biggest leadership challenge.

Climate Change as a Threat to Brazil’s Amazon Forest

Climate changes predicted for Brazilian Amazonia place much of the forest in danger of dieoff from the combined effect of drought and heat within the current century, and much sooner for some areas. Increases are expected in the frequency and magnitude of droughts from both the El Niño phenomenon and from the Atlantic dipole. These changes imply increased frequency of forest fires. Forest death from drought, fires or both would be followed by a transformation either to a savanna or to some type of low-biomass woody vegetation, in either case with greatly reduced biodiversity. This risk provides justification for Brazil to change its negotiating positions under the Climate Convention to accept a binding target now for national emissions and to support a low atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (400 ppmv or less) as the definition of “dangerous” interference with the climate system.