Climate Change as a Threat to Brazil’s Amazon Forest

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip M. Fearnside
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Woody Vegetation ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Current Century ◽  
Climate Convention ◽  
Definition Of

Climate changes predicted for Brazilian Amazonia place much of the forest in danger of dieoff from the combined effect of drought and heat within the current century, and much sooner for some areas. Increases are expected in the frequency and magnitude of droughts from both the El Niño phenomenon and from the Atlantic dipole. These changes imply increased frequency of forest fires. Forest death from drought, fires or both would be followed by a transformation either to a savanna or to some type of low-biomass woody vegetation, in either case with greatly reduced biodiversity. This risk provides justification for Brazil to change its negotiating positions under the Climate Convention to accept a binding target now for national emissions and to support a low atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (400 ppmv or less) as the definition of “dangerous” interference with the climate system.

Climate-forced changes of bio-productivity of Belorussian terrestrial ecosystems

2019 ◽  
pp. 77-88
Author(s):  
S. A. Lysenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Climatic Trend ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Current Century ◽  
The Impact

The spatial and temporal particularities of Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) changes over territory of Belarus in the current century and their relationship with climate change were investigated. The rise of NDVI is observed at approximately 84% of the Belarus area. The statistically significant growth of NDVI has exhibited at nearly 35% of the studied area (t-test at 95% confidence interval), which are mainly forests and undeveloped areas. Croplands vegetation index is largely descending. The main factor of croplands bio-productivity interannual variability is precipitation amount in vegetation period. This factor determines more than 60% of the croplands NDVI dispersion. The long-term changes of NDVI could be explained by combination of two factors: photosynthesis intensifying action of carbon dioxide and vegetation growth suppressing action of air warming with almost unchanged precipitation amount. If the observed climatic trend continues the croplands bio-productivity in many Belarus regions could be decreased at more than 20% in comparison with 2000 year. The impact of climate change on the bio-productivity of undeveloped lands is only slightly noticed on the background of its growth in conditions of rising level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Global warming in Amazonia: impacts and Mitigation

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 1003-1011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Martin Fearnside
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Carbon Accounting ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Temperature Oscillations

Global warming has potentially catastrophic impacts in Amazonia, while at the same time maintenance of the Amazon forest offers one of the most valuable and cost-effective options for mitigating climate change. We know that the El Niño phenomenon, caused by temperature oscillations of surface water in the Pacific, has serious impacts in Amazonia, causing droughts and forest fires (as in 1997-1998). Temperature oscillations in the Atlantic also provoke severe droughts (as in 2005). We also know that Amazonian trees die both from fires and from water stress under hot, dry conditions. In addition, water recycled through the forest provides rainfall that maintains climatic conditions appropriate for tropical forest, especially in the dry season. What we need to know quickly, through intensified research, includes progress in representing El Niño and the Atlantic oscillations in climatic models, representation of biotic feedbacks in models used for decision-making about global warming, and narrowing the range of estimating climate sensitivity to reduce uncertainty about the probability of very severe impacts. Items that need to be negotiated include the definition of "dangerous" climate change, with the corresponding maximum levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation of global warming must include maintaining the Amazon forest, which has benefits for combating global warming from two separate roles: cutting the flow the emissions of carbon each year from the rapid pace of deforestation, and avoiding emission of the stock of carbon in the remaining forest that can be released by various ways, including climate change itself. Barriers to rewarding forest maintenance include the need for financial rewards for both of these roles. Other needs are for continued reduction of uncertainty regarding emissions and deforestation processes, as well as agreement on the basis of carbon accounting. As one of the countries most subject to impacts of climate change, Brazil must assume the leadership in fighting global warming.

Climate Measurement and Modeling

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas V. Hoyt ◽  
Kenneth H. Shatten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Variations ◽  
Noise Sources ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Natural Climate

Having considered the sun and its variations, we now turn to Earth’s climate and climatic variations. We examine the definition of climate and the difficulties in measuring it. Awareness of these complexities is critical for an appreciation of how difficult it is to demonstrate changing climate. Separating trends from random variations is the first step in defining climate change. After reviewing the statistical properties of climate, we deal with theoretical climate models. This background is important for understanding how solar variations might affect climate. The following four chapters review specific sun/climate relationships, and the statistical and physical guidelines developed now will be used to select pertinent studies. As the heat source that drives Earth’s climate, the variable sun is important when studying climate change. With many, if not most, modern popular accounts focusing on how humanity is altering climate, it is important to realize that solar variations may play a significant role in the background natural variability. To understand anthropogenic (human-made) influences on climate change, we must be able to make distinctions among the contributions that arise from naturally occurring climate variability. Natural climate variations include a possible solar-irradiance component. Man-made climatic changes are not well known, and natural climate variations are uncertain too. For example, we do not know whether a man-made doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide provides a 1.5 or a 4.5 °C increase in mean global temperature. This uncertainty arises, in part, because natural climate variability acts as “noise” to confuse our measures of man-made influences. To obtain accurate results, we must understand and remove these background noise sources. Although these temperature changes seem small, they can have tremendous global impact on the survivability of species and on many different aspects of life. In addition, the uncertainty factor of 3 is highly important because it tells us that the risk in emitting a quantity of carbon dioxide is uncertain by this same factor.

Spatiotemporal Monitoring of CO2 and CH4 over Pakistan Using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)

2016 ◽  
Vol 58 ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
Irfan Mahmood ◽  
Muhammad Farooq Iqbal ◽  
Muhammad Imran Shahzad ◽  
Ahmed Waqas ◽  
Luqman Atique
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Considerable Increase ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Infrared Sounder ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Atmospheric Concentrations

Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) are two most potent greenhouse gases and are major source of climate change. Human activities particularly fossil fuels burning have caused considerable increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. CO2contributes 60% of anthropogenic greenhouse effect whereas CH4contributes 15%. Ice core records also show that the concentrations of Carbon dioxide and methane have increased substantially. The emission of these gases alters the Earth’s energy budget and are drivers of climate change. In the present study, atmospheric concentration of CO2and CH4over Pakistan is measured using Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Time series and time averaged maps are prepared to measure the concentrations of CO2and CH4. The results show considerable increase in concentration of Carbon dioxide and methane. The substantial increase in these concentrations can affect human health, earth radiative balance and can damage crops.

The Climate Convention: deciphering the Kyoto commitments

1998 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 187-194 ◽  
Author(s):  
ADIL NAJAM ◽  
THOMAS P. PAGE
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Base Period ◽  
Economies In Transition ◽  
The Third ◽  
Commitment Period ◽  
Anthropogenic Carbon ◽  
Specific Emissions ◽  
Climate Convention

The third meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP-3) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded with the signing of the Kyoto Protocol (UNFCCC 1997). After much political wrangling and an extended all night negotiation session, delegates agreed to a Protocol that mandates specific emissions limits for industrialized countries and economies in transition (collectively listed as Annex I countries). The Protocol mandates that the average anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emission of each Annex I country should be no more than its agreed allowance in the ‘first quantified emission limitation commitment period’ which is defined as the five years between the beginning of 2008 and the end of 2012 (UNFCCC 1997, Article 3.7). The base-period for most countries in Annex I is 1990. The exceptions, which were granted during COP-2 (UNFCCC 1996, decision 9/CP.2), are Bulgaria (1989), Hungary (1985-87), Poland (1988) and Romania (1989).

scholarly journals Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Le Page ◽  
Douglas Morton ◽  
Hartin Corinne ◽  
Bond-Lamberty Ben ◽  
José Miguel Cardoso Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Fire Activity

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, common under current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

scholarly journals Synergy between land use and climate change increases future fire risk in Amazon forests

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 1237-1246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yannick Le Page ◽  
Douglas Morton ◽  
Corinne Hartin ◽  
Ben Bond-Lamberty ◽  
José Miguel Cardoso Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Amazon Basin ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Fire Activity

Abstract. Tropical forests have been a permanent feature of the Amazon basin for at least 55 million years, yet climate change and land use threaten the forest's future over the next century. Understory forest fires, which are common under the current climate in frontier forests, may accelerate Amazon forest losses from climate-driven dieback and deforestation. Far from land use frontiers, scarce fire ignitions and high moisture levels preclude significant burning, yet projected climate and land use changes may increase fire activity in these remote regions. Here, we used a fire model specifically parameterized for Amazon understory fires to examine the interactions between anthropogenic activities and climate under current and projected conditions. In a scenario of low mitigation efforts with substantial land use expansion and climate change – Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 – projected understory fires increase in frequency and duration, burning 4–28 times more forest in 2080–2100 than during 1990–2010. In contrast, active climate mitigation and land use contraction in RCP4.5 constrain the projected increase in fire activity to 0.9–5.4 times contemporary burned area. Importantly, if climate mitigation is not successful, land use contraction alone is very effective under low to moderate climate change, but does little to reduce fire activity under the most severe climate projections. These results underscore the potential for a fire-driven transformation of Amazon forests if recent regional policies for forest conservation are not paired with global efforts to mitigate climate change.

scholarly journals Global Warming: Chaotic Climate Changes with Chaotic Social Repercussions

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Jan-Erik Lane ◽  
Florent Dieterlen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Household Economy ◽  
Asian Continent ◽  
Island States ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Will Force ◽  
Numerous People

<p><em>Chaotic events and developments stemming from climate change now affect social systems and the household economy, globally. Thus, the growing deoxygenation will force people to move. See level rise will crush whole Island States in the Pacific and seize huge land portions elsewhere. Violent storms are conducive to mudslides that like extremely forceful forest fires kill numerous people. Entire cities may present a considerable health risk for ordinary citizens. The COP21 project of the UNFCCC starts its implementation of its decarbonisation goals I, II and III in 2020, but will countries like the economically successful nations on the Asian continent really comply. Or is continued economic growth still priority number One, as the enquiry into their plans indicates here? </em></p>

The Scientific Evidence for Climate Change

Heat Advisory ◽  
2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan H. Lockwood
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Industrial Age ◽  
Instrumental Record ◽  
To Come ◽  
Time Frames ◽  
Global Surface

The instrumental record shows steadily rising global surface temperatures as the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases increased during the industrial age. Numerous complementary scientific techniques have shown clearly that these increases are due to human activity, notably burning fossil fuels. The instrumental record is complemented by proxy measurements that reliably document the earth’s temperature and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide for hundreds of thousands, and in some cases, millions of years. Present conditions are unprecedented in those time frames. Without drastic reductions in the emission of carbon dioxide the worst is yet to come.

Reserved Areas Importance for Mitigation of Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Forest Degradation ◽  
Lung Damage ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The World ◽  
Scientific Technical ◽  
The Republic

Scientific-technical progress that we observe for last several decades in the world along with the sufficient benefits to our society brings many detrimental effects to environment, plant biodiversity and climate change. Increased levels of exhausted transport emissions into atmosphere poison ambient air in big cities and settlements causing allergies, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung damage. Great threats to climate change are: deforestation, forest degradation and overexploitation of bio-resources of the planet in many countries of the world like Brazil, Russia, the Republic of Indonesia. Forest fires, taking place every year in North America, Australia, Russia, are also big contributors to climate change. In this situation forests and reserved areas can play very important role in mitigation of threats by absorbing carbon dioxide. As more forests and reserved areas we have on the planet, as more carbon dioxide be absorbed and more oxygen omitted into atmosphere and vice versa. This goal can be achieved by enlargement of existed and creation of new reserved areas, preservation of all forests with joint efforts of governments, scientists and policy-makers from all countries of the world.

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