Modeling the Transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in a Partially Vaccinated Population

In a population with ongoing vaccination, the trajectory of a pandemic is determined by how the virus spreads in unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals that exhibit distinct transmission dynamics based on different levels of natural and vaccine-induced immunity. We developed a mathematical model that considers both subpopulations and immunity parameters, including vaccination rates, vaccine effectiveness, and a gradual loss of protection. The model forecasted the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in the US under varied transmission and vaccination rates. We further obtained the control reproduction number and conducted sensitivity analyses to determine how each parameter may affect virus transmission. Although our model has several limitations, the number of infected individuals was shown to be a magnitude greater (~10×) in the unvaccinated subpopulation compared to the vaccinated subpopulation. Our results show that a combination of strengthening vaccine-induced immunity and preventative behavioral measures like face mask-wearing and contact tracing will likely be required to deaccelerate the spread of infectious SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Covid-19 disease dynamics with vaccination: The effect of uncertainty

Rate parameters are critical in estimating the covid burden using mathematical models. In the Covid-19 mathematical models, these parameters are assumed to be constant. However, uncertainties in these rate parameters are almost inevitable. In this paper, we study a stochastic epidemic model of the SARS-CoV-2 virus infection in the presence of vaccination in which some parameters fluctuate around its average value. Our analysis shows that if the stochastic basic reproduction number (SBRN) of the system is greater than unity, then there is a stationary distribution, implying the long-time disease persistence. A sufficient condition for disease eradication is also prescribed for which the exposed class goes extinct, followed by the infected class. The disease eradication criterion may not hold if the rate of vaccine-induced immunity loss increases or/and the force of infection increases. Using the Indian Covid-19 data, we estimated the model parameters and showed the future disease progression in the presence of vaccination. The disease extinction time is estimated under various conditions. It is revealed that the mean extinction time is an increasing function of both the force of infection and immunity loss rate and shows the lognormal distribution. We point out that disease eradication might not be possible even at a higher vaccination rate if the vaccine-induced immunity loss rate is high. Our observation thus indicates the endemicity of the disease for the existing vaccine efficacy. The disease eradication is possible only with a higher vaccine efficacy or a reduced infection rate.

Comparison of Natural and BNT162b2 Vaccine-induced Immunity, with and without an Enhancer or Booster Dose, on the Risk of COVID-19-Related Hospitalization in Israel

Introduction: With the COVID-19 pandemic ongoing, accurate assessment of population immunity and the effectiveness of booster and enhancer vaccines is critical. Methods We compare COVID-19-related hospitalization incidence rate ratios, adjusted for potential demographic, clinical and health-seeking-behavior confounders, in 2,412,755 individuals (235,552,274 person-days), across four exposures: 2 BNT162b2 doses, 5 or more months prior ("non-recent vaccine immunity"); 3 BNT162b2 doses (“boosted vaccine immunity”); previous COVID-19, with or without a subsequent BNT162b2 dose (“natural immunity” and “enhanced natural immunity” respectively). Results Compared with non-recent vaccine immunity, COVID-19-related hospitalization incidence rate ratios are 11% (9%-13%) for boosted vaccine immunity, 34% (23%-50%) for natural immunity and 25% (17%-39%) for enhanced natural immunity. Conclusion We demonstrate that natural immunity (enhanced or not) provides better protection against COVID-19-related hospitalization than non-recent vaccine immunity, but less protection than that attained from booster vaccination. Additionally, our results suggest that vaccinating individuals with natural immunity further enhances their protection.

Durability and cross-reactivity of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine in adolescent children

Importance: Emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants and waning humoral immunity in vaccinated individuals are causing increased infections and hospitalizations. Children are not spared from infection nor complications of COVID-19, and the recent recommendation for boosters in individuals ages 12 years or older calls for broader understanding of the adolescent immune profile after mRNA vaccination. Objective: We sought to test the durability and cross-reactivity of anti-SARS-CoV-2 serologic responses over a six-month time course in vaccinated adolescents against the wildtype and Omicron antigens. Design, Setting and Participants: Adolescents who received a full (two-dose) series of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA vaccination participated in this longitudinal cohort study from May 2021 to January 2022. Blood samples were collected in clinical settings from thirty-one adolescents, nineteen of whom provided samples at four timepoints (prior to vaccination, two to three weeks after first dose, two to four weeks after second dose and six months after complete series). Sera were analyzed for antibody responses against wildtype and Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2-specific proteins. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was to analyze vaccine-induced immune responses over time by ELISA, as well as their cross-reactivity between antibody responses against wildtype SARS-CoV-2 and the Omicron variant of concern. Results: Thirty-one adolescents provided a blood sample for at least one timepoint. The median age of the cohort was 13.9 years. Half of the cohort was male, and one quarter of the population was Hispanic. Anti-Spike and anti-RBD antibodies waned after six months, nearing pre-vaccination levels. After the second dose of the vaccine, adolescent children displayed equal sensitivity for the Omicron-RBD and wildtype SARS-CoV-2-RBD, as well as an upward trend of Omicron-reactive antibodies six months after vaccination. Waning mRNA vaccine-induced immunity in adolescents highlights a vulnerability in pediatric protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Conclusions and Relevance: Vaccine-induced immunity wanes in adolescents over time to near pre-vaccinated levels. Cross-reactivity of antibodies generated by adolescents display efficacy against Omicron. These findings highlight the need for SARS-CoV-2 boosters to protect adolescents from highly infectious variants, illness and post-COVID-19 complications.

Modelling COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Infections in Highly Vaccinated Israel - the effects of waning immunity and third vaccination dose

In August 2021, a major wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant erupted in the highly vaccinated population of Israel. The Delta variant has a transmission advantage over the Alpha variant, and thus replaced it in approximately two months. The outbreak led to an unexpectedly large proportion of breakthrough infections (BTI)-- a phenomenon that received worldwide attention. The BTI proportion amongst cases in the age group of 60+ years reached levels as high as ~85% in August 2021. Most of the Israeli population, especially those 60+ age, received their second dose of the vaccination, four months before the invasion of the Delta variant. Hence, either the vaccine induced immunity dropped significantly or the Delta variant possesses immunity escaping abilities. In this work, we analyzed and model age-structured cases, vaccination coverage, and vaccine BTI data obtained from the Israeli Ministry of Health, to help understand the epidemiological factors involved in the outbreak. We propose a mathematical model which captures a multitude of factors, including age structure, the time varying vaccine efficacy, time varying transmission rate, BTIs, reduced susceptibility and infectivity of vaccinated individuals, protection duration of the vaccine induced immunity, and the vaccine distribution. We fitted our model to the cases among vaccinated and unvaccinated, for <60 and 60+ age groups, to address the aforementioned factors. We found that the transmission rate was driven by multiple factors including the invasion of Delta variant and the mitigation measures. Through a model reconstruction of the reproductive number R0(t), it was found that the peak transmission rate of the Delta variant was 1.96 times larger than the previous Alpha variant. The model estimated that the vaccine efficacy dropped significantly from >90% to ~40% over 6 months, and that the immunity protection duration has a peaked Gamma distribution (rather than exponential). We further performed model simulations quantifying the important role of the third vaccination booster dose in reducing the levels of breakthrough infections. This allowed us to explore "what if" scenarios should the booster not have been rolled out. Application of this framework upon invasion of new pathogens, or variants of concern, can help elucidate important factors in the outbreak dynamics and highlight potential routes of action to mitigate their spread.

Waning Effectiveness of the BNT162b2 Vaccine Against Infection in Adolescents

Background: The short-term effectiveness of a two-dose regimen of the BioNTech/Pfizer mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine for adolescents has been demonstrated. However, little is known about the long-term effectiveness in this age group. It is known, though, that waning of vaccine-induced immunity against infection in adult populations is evident within a few months. Methods: Leveraging the centralized computerized database of Maccabi Healthcare Services (MHS), we conducted a matched case-control design for evaluating the association between time since vaccination and the incidence of infections, where two outcomes were evaluated separately: a documented SARS-CoV-2 infection (regardless of symptoms) and a symptomatic infection (COVID-19). Cases were defined as individuals aged 12 to 16 with a positive PCR test occurring between June 15 and December 8, 2021, when the Delta variant was dominant in Israel. Controls were adolescents who had not tested positive previously. Results: We estimated a peak vaccine effectiveness between 2 weeks and 3 months following receipt of the second dose, with 85% and 90% effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19, respectively. However, in line with previous findings for adults, waning of vaccine effectiveness was evident in adolescents as well. Long-term protection conferred by the vaccine was reduced to 75-78% against infection and symptomatic infection, respectively, 3 to 5 months after the second dose, and waned to 58% against infection and 65% against COVID-19 after 5 months. Conclusions: Like adults, vaccine-induced protection against both SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 wanes with time, starting three months after inoculation and continuing for more than five months.

Ancestral SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells cross-recognize Omicron (B.1.1.529)

The emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 variant-of-concern Omicron (B.1.1.529) has destabilized global efforts to control the impact of COVID-19. Recent data have suggested that B.1.1.529 can readily infect people with naturally acquired or vaccine-induced immunity, facilitated in some cases by viral escape from antibodies that neutralize ancestral SARS-CoV-2. However, severe disease appears to be relatively uncommon in such individuals, highlighting a potential role for other components of the adaptive immune system. We report here that SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells induced by prior infection and, more extensively, by mRNA vaccination provide comprehensive heterologous immune reactivity against B.1.1.529. Pairwise comparisons across groups further revealed that SARS-CoV-2 spike-reactive CD4+ and CD8+ T cells exhibited similar functional attributes, memory distributions, and phenotypic traits in response to the ancestral strain or B.1.1.529. Our data indicate that established SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cell responses, especially after mRNA vaccination, remain largely intact against B.1.1.529.

Cross reactivity of spike glycoprotein induced antibody against delta and omicron variants before and after third SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dose

Variants of SARS-CoV-2 may evade natural and vaccine induced immunity and monoclonal antibody immunotherapeutics. There is an urgent need to know how well antibodies, induced by healthy and Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (CEV) patients, will bind and thus help reduce transmission and severity of infection from variants of concern (VOC). This study determines the cross-reactive binding of serum antibodies obtained prior to and 28 days after a third vaccination in three cohorts; a health care worker cohort who received three doses of Pfizer-BioNtech (PPP), a cohort of CEV patients received two doses of the AstraZeneca-ChAdOx1-nCoV-19 (AAP) vaccine, followed by a third PFZ vaccine and a haemodialysis cohort that had a mixture of two AZ or PFZ vaccines followed by a PFZ booster. Six months post second vaccine there was evidence of antibody waning with 58.9% of individuals in the HD cohort seropositive against Wuhan, 34.4% Delta and 62.2% Omicron strains. For the AAP cohort, equivalent figures were 62.5%, 45.8% and 91.7% and the PPP cohort 92.2%, 90% and 91.1%. Post third dose vaccination there were universal increases in seropositivity and median optical density. For the HD cohort, 98.8% were seropositive to the Wuhan strain, 97.6% against Delta and 100% against Omicron strains. For the PPP and AAP cohorts, 100% were seropositive against all 3 strains. Lastly, we examined the WHO NIBSC 20/136 standard and there was no loss of antibody binding to either VOC. Similarly, a dilution series of Sotrovimab (GSK) found this therapeutic monoclonal antibody bound similarly to all VOC.

Multisystem Inflammatory-like Syndrome in a Child Following COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination

A 12-year-old male was presented to the hospital with acute encephalopathy, headache, vomiting, diarrhea, and elevated troponin after recent COVID-19 vaccination. Two days prior to admission and before symptom onset, he received the second dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine. Symptoms developed within 24 h with worsening neurologic symptoms, necessitating admission to the pediatric intensive care unit. Brain magnetic resonance imaging within 16 h of admission revealed a cytotoxic splenial lesion of the corpus callosum (CLOCC). Nineteen days prior to admission, he developed erythema migrans, and completed an amoxicillin treatment course for clinical Lyme disease. However, Lyme antibody titers were negative on admission and nine days later, making active Lyme disease an unlikely explanation for his presentation to hospital. An extensive workup for other etiologies on cerebrospinal fluid and blood samples was negative, including infectious and autoimmune causes and known immune deficiencies. Three weeks after hospital discharge, all of his symptoms had dissipated, and he had a normal neurologic exam. Our report highlights a potential role of mRNA vaccine-induced immunity leading to MIS-C-like symptoms with cardiac involvement and a CLOCC in a recently vaccinated child and the complexity of establishing a causal association with vaccination. The child recovered without receipt of immune modulatory treatment.