A statistical approach for reconstructing natural streamflow series based on streamflow variation identification

Natural streamflow reconstruction is highly significant to assess long-term trends, variability, and pattern of streamflow, and is critical for addressing implications of climate change for adaptive water resources management. This study proposed a simple statistical approach named NSR-SVI (natural streamflow reconstruction based on streamflow variation identification). As a hybrid model coupling Pettitt's test method with an iterative algorithm and iterative cumulative sum of squares algorithm, it can determine the reconstructed components and implement the recombination depending only on the information of change points in observed annual streamflow records. Results showed that NSR-SVI is suitable for reconstructing natural series and can provide the stable streamflow processes under different human influences to better serve the hydrologic design of water resource engineering. Also, the proposed approach combining the cumulative streamflow curve provides an innovative way to investigate the attributions of streamflow variation, and the performance has been verified by comparing with the relevant results in nearby basin.

Prime Numbers Distribution Line

During the analysis of the fractal-primorial periodicity of the natural series of numbers, presented in the form of an alternation (sequence) of prime numbers (1 smallest prime factor > 1 of any integer), the regularity of prime numbers distribution was revealed. That is, the theorem is proved that for any integer = N on the segment of the natural series of numbers from 1 to N + 2N: (1) prime numbers are arranged in groups, by exactly three consecutive prime numbers of the form: (Р1-Р2-Р3). In this case, the distance from the first to the third prime number of any group is less than 2N integers, that is, Р3–Р1 < 2N integers. (2) These same prime numbers are redistributed in a line in groups, by exactly two consecutive prime numbers, on all segments of the natural series of numbers shorter than 2Nintegers.

Money Supply, Inflation and Economic Growth: Co-Integration and Causality Analysis

The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between money supply, inflation rate, and economic growth in the context of Algeria, using various econometric procedures as co-integration without and with structural breaks in addition to three different ways of causality test for the period 1970-2018, the results confirm the long-run relationship between the variables with more than three structural breaks, but with the absence of the effects of money supply and inflation rate on economic growth both in short run and long run terms, on the other hand, the causality results confirmed the existence of hidden causalities among the variables running from the cumulative components not from the natural series, and all the results support the Monetarist view of inflation though the absence of any effect of money supply on economic growth.

Text-Description as “Zero Degree of a Story”

Narration and reasoning as varieties of speech and text are two parallel ways to deploy the pre-predicative content of internal speech. The am- biguity of these paths is due to the nature of their reference to the two attributes of substance: extension and thought, correspondingly. However, traditional sci- entific and applied classifications distinguish three types of speech and text: narrative, reasoning, and description. In this regard, the system position of the text-description remains unclear, although the importance of it is especially obvious when studying works of fiction. Literary typology usually opposes description to narrative by the criterion of statics or dynamics, correspondingly. The article proposes to consider the description as an eventless kind of speech, in this capacity opposing both eventual narrative and mentative. In addition, it is noted that the description is eidetic, as opposed to the logical narrative and the mentative. So the threefold opposition of speech and text varieties is asymmetric. In this approach, the description constitute itself as a “zero degree of the story”, as a “different”, relative to which other ways of constructing speech and text insist themselves. The recognition of eventlessness as the most important characteristic of a description makes it possible to distinguish it from ecphrasis, which always carries an element of eventuality. A pure description is a linguistic construct rather than an empirical datum. It occurs only in a very narrow thematic and syntactic range of statements. These are nominatives and similar structures that point to the phenomena of the natural series. Every description of an artifact tends to be ecphrastic, as evidenced by the multiplication of the revealed varie- ties of ecphrasis in recent studies. In addition, in practice, description is usually inseparable from narrative or reasoning. Therefore, the barthesian formula of “zero degree” corresponds to both abstract conditionality and theoretical prima- cy of the description as a simple substance of speech.

Vertical distribution of 137Cs and natural radioactivity in core sediments of Thermaikos Gulf, northwestern Aegean Sea

Sub-superficial sediments have been collected from the Thermaikos Gulf, located in the NW Aegean Sea, in order to determine sedimentation rates using vertical distributions of 137Cs and 210Pb. In addition measurements of the characteristic radionuclides of the 238U and 232Th natural series has also been performed to better understand the transport and the sedimentation process in a marine environment, which is strongly influenced by the main North Greece rivers. The sedimentation rates of the five selected cores using the two methods were consistent and varied from 0.20 ± 0.01 till 0.30 ± 0.02 cm y-1. The mean sedimentation rates derived with both methods are enhanced during the last ten years compared to previous values at the studied region by one order of magnitude, due to human implications. The activity concentration of the 238U decay products does not exhibit variation along the depth. The activities of 226Ra are enhanced (~30 %) compared to the activities of radon daughters (214Pb, 214Bi) especially at the surface layer. The results of the correlation between 232Th decay products and 40K indicate that there is positive correlation between their averaged activities. The good proportionality between 232Th and 40K concentrations may be attributed to the fact that thorium is a particularly insoluble element in water.

STRATEGY OF DETERMINATION OF THE HYPOTHETIC DIRECTION OF INCREASING THE RISK OF INFLAMMATION OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE SAFETY

In this article, a mathematical apparatus for comparative analysis of the set of threats of state information resources (DIR) is proposed for consideration, which combines methods and approaches to assess their qualitative and quantitative indicators. The main feature of the study is that the proposed approach to solving the problem of choice does not require a complete restoration of the principle of optimality, but allows to limit only information that will be sufficient to select the "reference sample". The essence of the ranking procedure lies in the fact that the expert poses the threat of an IP in the order that, in his opinion, is the most rational. For each of them the expert assigns specific numbers from a natural series - ranks. In this case, the highest rank receives the threat that has the highest priority. The order scale to be obtained as a result of ranking should satisfy the condition of equality of the number of ranks of the number of ranked threats. In this case, the less complex value of the numerical value will correspond to the least dangerous threat. The essence of the method lies in the fact that the expert must put each threat considered in a certain place in accordance with the degree of availability of one or another property, or in accordance with the proposed by the same expert, the coefficient of significance. In this case, the larger value of a complex assessment corresponds to the least dangerous threat. The basic mathematical method for assessing the threat of threats from the "general population" of the IB classes of threats is the method of formation and research of generalized indicators (criteria), the results of complex combination of which determine the trends of qualitative growth of their significance. Methods of expert assessments are used to increase the reliability of the results of assessing the levels of potential hazards of each threat from the "general population" of IB threat classes. The application of the proposed method will reduce the time to assess the state of the security of information resources and will allow, firstly, to identify the most significant threats that could inflict the greatest damage to information security and, secondly, to direct them the necessary means and safeguards.

From chaos to order. Difference equations in one ecological problem

In this paper we consider properties of the difference equations (discrete mappings) obtained in the study of the population dynamics of lemmings. A bifurcation scenario is proposed for obtained equations. Certain stability zones appear under this scenario with periods varying in order of natural series and also zones with more complicated modes. The study of transitional zones (‘ordering of the chaos’) is performed with the use of analytic calculations and computational experiments. Numerical analysis of mappings uses the methods of approximation of implicitly specified sets allowing us to construct and visualize sets of ‘resonance’ parameters including the front of the so-called singularity of ‘blue sky’.

Rare sulfides enriched in K, Tl and Pb from the Noril'sk and Salmagorsky complexes, Russia: new data and implications

New results (compositional data and reflectance values) are reported for some rare sulfides enriched in K, Tl and Pb, which are related to djerfisherite, thalfenisite, bartonite, a “Cl-bearing bartonite”, or chlorbartonite, and also for shadlunite, from the Noril'sk and Salmagorsky complexes, Russia. Our observations and comparisons with relevant data in the literature imply that: (1) bartonite is probably a S-dominant (or Cl-free) analogue of djerfisherite; and a “Cl-bearing bartonite” and chlorbartonite are probably compositional variants of the djerfisherite–bartonite series. (2) The most probable formulae of bartonite and djerfisherite are (K,Me2+)6(Fe,Cu,Ni)25–xS26(S,Cl) and (K,Me2+)6(Fe,Cu,Ni)25–xS26(Cl,S), where 0 ≤ x ≤ 5, respectively. (3) Two independent substitution mechanisms probably operate in the natural series. A coupled substitution [Me2+ + S2– ↔ K+ + Cl–] is reflected by an observed deficit in K, accompanied by the incorporation of Me2+(Pb, Fe, or Ni) in the K site. Another mechanism is inferred to be [2Fe3+ + 〈 ↔ 3Fe2+], which assumes the existence of vacancy-type defects at the Me site. Thus, the second mechanism could possibly control the existing variations of Σ(Fe, Cu, Ni) in the range of ∼21 to 25 a.p.f.u., documented in djerfisherite- and bartonite-type minerals. The minerals analysed from Noril'sk, which are free of Cl and related to bartonite and to a Tl-dominant analogue of bartonite (unnamed species), probably crystallized from microvolumes of late fluid rich in K and Tl, under conditions of relatively low oxygen fugacity in the environment. Uniform contentss of Fe and Cu, observed in coexisting phases of normal (Cl-bearing) djerfisherite and bartonite (or Cl-free analogue of djerfisherite) at Salmagorsky imply that they reached equilibrium with regard to the distribution of these elements during crystallization. These phases probably formed as a result of fluctuations in the ratios of sulfur and chlorine fugacity in a fluid at a postmagmatic hydrothermal stage.

ABOUT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DIFFERENT METHODS FOR THE ESTIMATION OF THE MULTIFRACTAL SPECTRUM OF NATURAL SERIES

Complex natural systems present characteristics of scalar invariance. This behavior has been experimentally verified and a large related bibliography has been reported. Multifractal Formalism is a way to evaluate this kind of behavior. In the past years, different numerical methods to estimate the multifractal spectrum have been proposed. These methods could be classified into those that originated from the wavelet analysis and others from numerical approximations like the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA), proposed by Kantelhardt and Stanley. Recently, S. Jaffard and co-workers proposed the Wavelet Leaders (WL) method that exploits the potential of wavelet analysis and the efficiency of the Multiresolution Wavelet Schema. In a previous work, we checked that both methods are equivalent for estimating fractal properties in a series from singular measures. Now, we apply MFDFA and WL to natural signals with self-similar structures, but unknown multifractal spectrum. We observe that some differences appear in their respective estimations, particularly when the signals are corrupted with fractional Gaussian noise.