Decision Premises, Learning and Organizational Resilience Addressing Novel Adversities

Organizational resilience is traditionally associated with the ability to understand and to respond to the ongoing situation, even under unusual conditions. The capability to detect novel and unexpected situations plays a fundamental role in this process. Following (Simon‚ 1991), we believe that decision premises affect the problem representation and, ultimately, the possibility to detect, interpret and respond to novel situations, thus enhancing resilience. From this perspective, the ability to expand the perceptual limits of observation and to conceive a novel representation of the problem requires revising the initial decision premises. This theory of how organizations learn how to solve novel problems provides the foundation to introduce a role designed to legitimately challenge the decision premises and, ultimately, the spectrum of alternatives that are taken into consideration as possible solutions. To illustrate our proposal to increase organizational resilience, we introduce an exemplary real case stemming from the practice of the emergency management organizations under scrutiny of our research team; this case is reconstructed as a conversational narrative of the two key participants.

Beyond the tracked line of sight - Evaluation of the peripheral usable field of view in a simulator setting

Combining advanced gaze tracking systems with the latest vehicle environment sensors opens up new fields of applications for driver assistance. Gaze tracking enables researchers to determine the location of a fixation, and under consideration of the visual saliency of the scene, to predict visual perception of objects. The perceptual limits, for stimulus identification, found in literature have mostly been determined in laboratory conditions using isolated stimuli, with a fixed gaze point, on a single screen with limited coverage of the field of view. The found limits are usually reported as hard limits. Such commonly used limits are therefore not applicable to settings with a wide field of view, natural viewing behavior and multi-stimuli. As handling of sudden, potentially critical driving maneuvers heavily relies on peripheral vision, the peripheral limits for feature perception need to be included in the determined perceptual limits. To analyze the human visual perception of different, simultaneously occurring, object changes (shape, color, movement) we conducted a study with 50 participants, in a driving simulator and we propose a novel way to determine perceptual limits, which is more applicable to driving scenarios.

Empirical Insights from a Study on Outlier Preserving Value Generalization in Animated Choropleth Maps

Time series animation of choropleth maps easily exceeds our perceptual limits. In this empirical research, we investigate the effect of local outlier preserving value generalization of animated choropleth maps on the ability to detect general trends and local deviations thereof. Comparing generalization in space, in time, and in a combination of both dimensions, value smoothing based on a first order spatial neighborhood facilitated the detection of local outliers best, followed by the spatiotemporal and temporal generalization variants. We did not find any evidence that value generalization helps in detecting global trends.

Evolution of heterogeneous perceptual limits and indifference in competitive foraging

The collective behaviour of animal and human groups emerges from the individual decisions and actions of their constituent members. Recent research has revealed many ways in which the behaviour of groups can be influenced by differences amongst their constituent individuals. The existence of individual differences that have implications for collective behaviour raises important questions. How are these differences generated and maintained? Are individual differences driven by exogenous factors, or are they a response to the social dilemmas these groups face? Here I consider the classic case of patch selection by foraging agents under conditions of social competition. I introduce a multilevel model wherein the perceptual sensitivities of agents evolve in response to their foraging success or failure over repeated patch selections. This model reveals a bifurcation in the population, creating a class of agents with no perceptual sensitivity. These agents exploit the social environment to avoid the costs of accurate perception, relying on other agents to make fitness rewards insensitive to the choice of foraging patch. This provides a individual-based evolutionary basis for models incorporating perceptual limits that have been proposed to explain observed deviations from the Ideal Free Distribution (IFD) in empirical studies, while showing that the common assumption in such models that agents share identical sensory limits is likely false. Further analysis of the model shows how agents develop perceptual strategic niches in response to environmental variability. The emergence of agents insensitive to reward differences also has implications for societal resource allocation problems, including the use of financial and prediction markets as mechanisms for aggregating collective wisdom.

A Step to VAR: The Vision Science of Offside Calls by Video Assistant Referees

The Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system has had a major impact on decision-making in professional association football. However, offside decisions remain a major area of dispute and debate, with over 34 goals ruled out in the first season of VAR in the Premier League. Evidence in vision science points toward two problems with the application of the offside law in VAR, due to their use of a live TV video feed in reviews. First, due to physical and perceptual limits on spatial resolution, there is a significant probability that the spatial positions of the ball and players as judged by VAR will be several centimetres to one side of their true positions. Second, the 50 Hz TV update rate means that judgements of the time-of-contact between player and ball will on average be 10 ms too late, which translates into an increased likelihood of offside calls in fast-moving play. Suggestions are made for how to compensate for these problems during decision-making.

Perceptual timing precision with vibrotactile, auditory, and multisensory stimuli

It is important to understand the perceptual limits on vibrotactile information-processing because of the increasing use of vibrotactile signals in common technologies like cell phones. To advance such an understanding, we examined vibrotactile temporal acuity and compared it to auditory and bimodal (synchronous vibrotactile and auditory) temporal acuity. In a pair of experiments, subjects experienced a series of empty intervals, demarcated by stimulus pulses from one of the three modalities. One trial contained up to 5 intervals, where the first intervals were isochronous at 400 ms, and the last interval varied from 400 by ±1-80 ms. If the final interval was < 400 ms, the last pulse seemed “early”, and if the final interval was > 400 ms, the last pulse seemed “late”. In Experiment One, each trial contained four intervals, where the first three were isochronous. Subjects judged the timing of the last interval by describing the final pulse as either “early” or “late”. In Experiment Two, the number of isochronous intervals in a trial varied from one to four. Psychometric modeling revealed that vibrotactile temporal processing was less acute than auditory or bimodal temporal processing, and that auditory inputs dominated bimodal perception. Additionally, varying the number of isochronous intervals did not affect temporal sensitivity in either modality, suggesting the formation of memory traces. Overall, these results suggest that vibrotactile temporal processing is worse than auditory or bimodal temporal processing, which are similar. Also, subjects need no more than one isochronous reminder per trial for optimal performance.

Image Forensics

From mainstream media outlets to social media and everything in between, doctored photographs are appearing with growing frequency and sophistication. The resulting lack of trust is impacting law enforcement, national security, the media, e-commerce, and more. While some types of manipulations can be detected with a careful visual examination, our visual system seems unable to reliably detect other types of manipulations. The field of image forensics has emerged to help return some trust in photography. I describe the perceptual limits of detecting manipulated images, as well as representative examples of computational techniques for authenticating images.