Research on the Measurement of Subject Credit Risk of Chinese Port Enterprises by Constrained Logistic Regression

This paper studies the subject credit risk of Chinese port enterprises. Since the impact of cash flow ability on credit risk measurement will be increased under extreme case, ordinary logistic regression methods may lack explanatory power for port enterprise default under extreme cases. Considering the characteristics of cash flow in port industry, we introduce the constrained logistic regression method to establish a default probability model which can describe the credit risk level of the industry with higher accuracy in the extreme case where an enterprise’s quick ratio is lower than a cutoff point, For empirical study, we leverage the data of more than 900 companies in port and transportation industry in 2016–2018. The constrained logistic regression splits the data into two subspaces based on quick ratios with the cutoff of 1.8. Then logistic regression is built on the two subspaces, respectively. The recall ratios show that the constrained logistic regression method performs better than the ordinary logistic regression on the study of corporate default probability in port and transportation industry.

EFFECT OF NON-AUDIT SERVICES ON AUDITOR’S INDEPENDENCE: EVIDENCE FROM ACCOUNTING PRACTITIONERS IN ABIA STATE

This study investigates the effect of the provision on non-audit services on Auditor’s independence: evidence from accounting practitioners and consequent effect on the auditor’s objectivity and professional skepticism in the financial statement audited. The study used the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Nigeria (ICAN) and Association of National Accountants of Nigeria (ANAN) domiciled in Abia State. The data for the study were generated from primary source: questionnaires were the major instrument for data collection. The instrument was subject to both content and faces validity by experts. Three questions were structured in Likert scale form and the formulated hypotheses were tested with ordinary Logistic regression using SPSS package. The study found that non-audit services have no effect on auditor’s independence, the auditor’s objectivity and professional skepticism. The study therefore recommends that the audit committee should have full oversight of the auditor’s independence, including the nature and extent of the work they do and their fees. The audit committee should make its charter public. The charter should give investor information about how the audit committee chooses its auditors and how it decides the type of service they can provide.

Sputum smear grading and associated factors among bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary drug-resistant tuberculosis patients in Ethiopia

Background The sputum smear bacilliary load is a fundamental indicator of the level of infectiousness in DR-TB patients. However, evidence on DR-TB sputum smear grading and its factors in the study setting is limited. This study was aimed to determine the level of sputum smear grading and associated factors among DR-TB patients in Ethiopia. Methods This was an institution based cross-sectional study on 520 bacteriological confirmed pulmonary DR-TB patients from September 2010 to December 2017 in the northwest Ethiopia. Epidata 4.2.00 and SPSS 20 were used for data entry and management, respectively. Ordinary logistic regression was fitted. A cut of p-value less than 0.05 in the multivariable ordinary logistic regression was considered to declare statistically significant variables. Results Of all 520 bacteriological confirmed pulmonary DR-TB patients; 34.42% had 3+, 15.77% had 2+, 18.27% had 1+, 15.19% had scanty, and 16.35% had negative sputum smear grading results. The odds of having higher sputum smear grades were significantly associated with the patient’s educational status of secondary (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 0.43, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.21, 0.89), body mass index of 16 to 18.49 kg/m2 (AOR = 1.81, 95%CI: 1.16, 2.84), and TB treatment history of two and more times (AOR = 1.78, 95%CI: 1.24, 2.55). Conclusions More than a third of the bacteriological confirmed pulmonary DR-TB patients in the study setting was highly infectious with the highest bacillary load. The odds of having a high bacillary load were significantly associated with the patient’s TB treatment history, nutritional, and educational status.

Combined effect of water activity and pH on the growth of food-related ascospore-forming molds

Purpose The contamination of raw materials, packaging, or processing environments by fungal ascospores is a real concern for food industries, where variable rates of spoilage can be reached in pasteurized acidic products such as fruit juices, fruit jams, or soft drinks. The aim of this work was to assess the combined effect of aw and pH on the growth of six isolates from three genera of ascospore-forming molds that may occur in raw materials and in food industrial environments, in order to determine the environmental conditions that prevent the spoilage of pasteurized foods and beverages. Methods Growth tests were carried out on 60-day-old ascospores from Aspergillus hiratsukae (≡Neosartorya hiratsukae), Aspergillus thermomutatus (≡Neosartorya pseudofischeri), Chaetomium flavoviride, Chaetomium globosum, Talaromyces bacillisporus, and Talaromyces trachyspermus. The tests were performed up to 90 days at 25 °C, using sucrose solutions at different aw (0.85, 0.88, 0.92, 0.95) and pH (3.20, 3.50, 3.80, 4.20, 4.60) values. Growth was characterized by fitting an ordinary logistic regression model to the collected growth data. Results The explained percentage of the growth/no growth models ranged between 81.0 and 99.3%: aw exerted the largest influence on the growth of all tested species, while pH was significant only for Chaetomium isolates. The minimum conditions for germination and growth were aw 0.92 and pH 3.50 or 3.80, respectively, for C. flavoviride (46 days) and C. globosum (39 days), aw 0.92 and pH 3.20 for T. trachyspermus (13 days), aw 0.88 and pH 3.20 for T. bacillisporus (39 days), and aw 0.88 and pH 3.20 for the two aspergilli (33 and 27 days, respectively, for A. hiratsukae and A. thermomutatus). Conclusions Most of the spoiling mycetes tested were well-adapted to the formulations considered; therefore, foods strategies aiming to inhibit their growth should explore also the hurdle effect exerted by other factors (e.g., antioxidants, organic acids, oxygen levels).

Level of Infectiousness and Associated Factors Among Bacteriologically Confirmed Pulmonary Drug-resistant Tuberculosis Patients Registered for Treatment in Ethiopia: A Seven-year Data

Background: The infectiousness of DR-TB is mainly determined by the sputum tuberculosis bacilliary load of the patient. However, evidence on DR-TB sputum smear grading and its factors in the study setting is limited. This study was aimed to assess the sputum smear grading and associated factors among DR-TB patients in Amhara regional state, Ethiopia.Methods: This was an institution based cross-sectional study on 520 bacteriological confirmed pulmonary DR-TB patients from September 2010 to December 2017 in the Amhara region Ethiopia. Epidata 4.2.00 and SPSS 20 were used for data entry and management, respectively. Ordinary logistic regression was fitted. A cut of p-value less than 0.05 in the multivariable ordinary logistic regression was considered to declare statistically significant variables.Results: Of all 520 bacteriological confirmed pulmonary DR-TB patients; 34.42% had 3+, 15.77% had 2+, 18.27% had 1+, 15.19% had scanty, and 16.35% had negative sputum smear grading results. The odds of having higher sputum smear grades were significantly associated with the patient's educational status of secondary (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=0.43, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.21, 0.89), body mass index of 16 to 18.49 kg/m2 (AOR=1.81, 95%CI: 1.16, 2.84), and TB treatment history of two and more times (AOR=1.78, 95%CI: 1.24, 2.55).Conclusions: More than a third of the bacteriological confirmed pulmonary DR-TB patients in the study setting was highly infectious with the highest bacillary load. The odds of having a high bacillary load were significantly associated with the patient's TB treatment history, nutritional, and educational status.

Incorporating spatial autocorrelation and settlement type segregation to improve the performance of an urban growth model

As rapid urbanization and population growth have become global issues, urban growth modeling has become an essential tool for decision-makers to understand how urban growth works in overall dense environments and to assess the sustainability of current urban forms. However, in urban growth models (particularly when incorporating quantitative approaches to include driving factors of urban growth), spatial autocorrelation may influence the overall model performance. In this paper, an empirical study was conducted in the region of Munich, and an integrated urban growth model was tested to explain current urban growth. The modeling contributes to advances in the state of the art by combining a range of driving factors using autologistic regression with a transition probability matrix from the Markov chain method in a cellular automata model simulation. The autologistic regression employed here addresses the impact of spatial autocorrelation compared to ordinary logistic regression. Furthermore, this study compared modeling of overall settlement growth with modeling high- and low-density settlement types separately. Incorporating spatial dependency into the model through application of autologistic regression showed improvements when compared to the ordinary logistic regression model. The Kappa indexes were higher when separately modeling the two types of settlement density compared to modeling overall settlement growth since the driving factors of settlement growth of different densities might be different. From an urban planning perspective, this novel autologistic regression-Markov chain-based cellular automata model is a powerful tool that offers an opportunity for planners and government authorities to gain a more precise understanding of the different urban growth processes that might occur in an urban region similar to the one tested here. It should allow for a better assessment of the potential costs, benefits, and risks of corresponding planning strategies.

Pemodelan Status Usaha (Pengusaha dan Pekerja/Karyawan) Menggunakan Regresi Logistik Multilevel

The level of a country's economy is directly proportional to the number of entrepreneurs in the country. According to the World Bank standard number of entrepreneurs, the ideal of a country is at least 4% of the total population. Based on data from the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association (HIPMI), the number of entrepreneurs in Indonesia is only about 1.5%. Of course not easy to achieve the ideal number of bank standards-based world that is 4%. This study aims to determine what factors are driving someone in determining a career as an entrepreneur or not (worker/employee). The data used is the Adult Population Survey (APS) in 2013 conducted by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). the survey conducted in 16 provinces, 51 districts/cities, and 176 subdistricts. Data generated hierarchical modeling that will be performed using multilevel logistic regression. The variables studied were the state variable effort (Y), variable knowent (X1), variable opport (X2), variable suskill (X3), variable fearfail (X4), the variable gender (X5) at level 1 and the variable sub-district at level 2. the analysis showed that the logistic regression model 2-level produce a better model than the ordinary logistic regression model. Based on modeling results we concluded that all predictor variables (knowent, opport, suskill, fearfail, gender, etc.) affect the status of one's business.

GENDER, TINGKAT PENDIDIKAN DAN LAMA USAHA SEBAGAI DETERMINAN PENGHASILAN UMKM KOTA SURABAYA

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh perbedaan gender, tingkat pendidikan dan lama usaha terhadap penghasilan pemilik UMKM kota Surabaya. Oleh karena itu, peneliti akan menganalisa pengaruh perbedaan gender, tingkat pendidikan dan lamanya usaha terhadap penghasilan UMKM di Surabaya. Ada sekitar 3.947 pemilik UMKM yang dikelola oleh pemerintah kota Surabaya, namun tidak semua produktif. Untuk menganalisis data, pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui survei dan wawancara semi-struktural kepada pemilik UKM di Surabaya. Peneliti menggunakan analisis regresi logistik pada program SPSS dengan jumlah sampel 170 pemilik UMKM. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perbedaan gender secara signifikan mempengaruhi pendapatan dari UKM. Tapi tingkat pendidikan dan usia bisnis tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pendapatan UKM.Kata kunci: perbedaan gender, tingkat pendidikan, usia bisnis, UKM di SurabayaAbstractThe purpose of this research is to test the influence gender differences, level of education and business age to income of Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Surabaya. This researcher will analyze the influence gender differences, the level of education and business agetowards the income of SMEs in Surabaya. There aremore than 3.947 SMEs managed by government of Surabaya, but they are not all productive. In order to analyze the data, the collection of data is done through survey and semi-structural interview to the owners of SMEs in Surabaya. The researcher utilizes ordinary logistic regression analysis SPSS program while the sample size is170 owners of SMEs. Results show that gender differencessignificantly influences the income of the SMEs.But level of education and business age not significantly influences the income of the SMEs.Key words: gender differences, level of education, business age, SMEs in Surabaya

Logistic regression for dichotomized counts

Sometimes there is interest in a dichotomized outcome indicating whether a count variable is positive or zero. Under this scenario, the application of ordinary logistic regression may result in efficiency loss, which is quantifiable under an assumed model for the counts. In such situations, a shared-parameter hurdle model is investigated for more efficient estimation of regression parameters relating to overall effects of covariates on the dichotomous outcome, while handling count data with many zeroes. One model part provides a logistic regression containing marginal log odds ratio effects of primary interest, while an ancillary model part describes the mean count of a Poisson or negative binomial process in terms of nuisance regression parameters. Asymptotic efficiency of the logistic model parameter estimators of the two-part models is evaluated with respect to ordinary logistic regression. Simulations are used to assess the properties of the models with respect to power and Type I error, the latter investigated under both misspecified and correctly specified models. The methods are applied to data from a randomized clinical trial of three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries in a large population of Scottish schoolchildren.