Modeling the Effect of Exchange Rate Liberalization on China’s Macro Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 769-777
Author(s):  
Xiaowen Hu ◽  
◽  
Duanming Zhou ◽  
Chengchen Hu ◽  
Fei Ai
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
General Equilibrium Theory ◽  
Interest Rate Shocks ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Interest Rate

The empirical characteristics of domestic and foreign interest rate shocks are obtained by using VAR method: the domestic interest rate regulation is counter-cyclical, and the increase of foreign interest rate leads to the increase of domestic output and inflation. On this basis, we construct a small open dynamic stochastic general equilibrium theory framework which reflects the empirical characteristics, including exchange rate control, to analyze the macroeconomic effects of exchange rate liberalization reform. By volatility simulation, impulse response and social welfare loss function analysis, the empirical results show that: firstly, exchange rate reform would increase volatility of output and exchange rate, but reduce volatility of inflation and interest rate. Secondly, exchange rate reform enhances the impact of domestic interest rate shocks on output and inflation. Which means the reform would improve the control ability of interest rate as a monetary policy tool. Moreover, the reform increases loss of social welfare. The conclusion shows that the exchange rate liberalization should be implemented step by step. The government should accelerate the reform when the external macro economy is stable. Otherwise it will cause a larger economic volatility.

scholarly journals DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL DAN MONETER DALAM PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ada Tua Pardamean
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The trade-off between achieving price stability and economic growth, especially in the short term is the impact of a decision-making dilemma for the conduct of fiscal policy or monetary policy in the Indonesian economy. The problem is what lies behind this study and aimed to determine the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the Indonesian economy. The data used are secondary data sourced from Bank Indonesia and BPS variables namely GDP, Government Expenditure, Tax Revenue, Export, Exchange Rate, Money Supply, Interest Rates for time series from 2000 to 2012. Data analysis was performed using Two Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation with multiple linear regression models using Eviews 5.0 program assistance. The results of this study it can be concluded that the simultaneous equation model on IS to variable Interest Rate and a significant negative effect on GDP of Indonesia, while the Government Expenditure variable (G0), Export (X0) and Tax Revenue (Tx) and Exchange Rate (ER) effect positively and significantly to Indonesia's GDP, while the equation for the LM model of the Money Supply variables significantly and negatively related to Indonesia's GDP increased at a rate statistically a = 10% and for variable interest rate is not significantly to Indonesia's GDP.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy Response on Exchange Rate Dynamics: The Case of Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferry Syarifuddin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Domestic Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Interest

Bank Indonesia has been implementing Enhanced Inflation Targeting Framework (EITF) since few years ago. The main monetary instrument is short term policy interest rate. The policy interest rate, in this regard, may also have significant role in driving the exchange rate to its desired level. Setting appropriate the interest rate to drive the exchange rate is important to drive the actual inflation to its official target. In order to see the response of policy interest rate to exchange rate dynamics as well as the impact of exchange-rate dynamics to macroeconomic indicators, Structural Co-integrating Vector Auto Regression (SC-VAR) in an open economy model, is implemented. Its finding shows that exchange rate dynamic of USD/IDR has significantly positive relationship with domestic interest rate. The increase of the USD/IDR (depreciation) will then push domestic interest rate to increase.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effect of Interest Rate Uncertainty on Residents’ Consumption – Based on a DSGE Model Embedded Stochastic Volatility

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 846-852
Author(s):  
Xiaowen Hu ◽  
◽  
Chengchen Hu ◽  
Yiyu Yao
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Modeling the effect of uncertainty shock usually employs VAR method. The approach however often leads to the results unstable with different structural equations. Especially it is modeled without a microscopic basis which often implies wrong policy advice. A new method to model the effect of interest rate uncertainty is proposed in this paper that overcomes this limitation. A stochastic volatility model is embedded into a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework to study the influence of interest rate uncertainty on the residents’ consumption. Using the third-order perturbation method to identify the impact of interest rate uncertainty on consumption. It is found by simulation that with the interest rate uncertainty increased, the consumption of residents in the current period has obviously decreased due to the preventive saving mechanism. Variance analysis shows that interest rate uncertainty shocks can explain 8% share of consumption volatility. The empirical results are robust when changing the parameter values and the prior distribution of the parameters. The conclusion shows the government should strengthen to guide the public reasonable expectations, to avoid the negative impact of interest rate uncertainty.

Does the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic influence the FX? A note.

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Evangelos Vasileiou
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Domestic Currency ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

This note shows that the effective response of a country in its battle against COVID-19 influences the exchange rate of its currency. Particularly, we examine the GBPUSD, AUDUSD and AUDGBP pairs of currency during the COVID-19 outbreak and the results show that the domestic currency of the country which documents more COVID-19 cases in each pair is depreciated against the foreign one. Therefore, a country which cannot effectively mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and whose currency is depreciated may present further economic consequences in the future. Such consequences extend beyond economic recession and may include sovereign and interest rate risk. These findings may be useful for policy makers in order to estimate the cost of the pandemic.

Shrinking metropolitan area: Costly homeownership and slow spatial shrinkage

Urban Studies ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 1113-1128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masatomo Suzuki ◽  
Yasushi Asami
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Simple Model ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Long Life ◽  
New Residents ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

With a simple model of land use and market arbitrage, this paper investigates the impact of population decline – when existing homeowners compete to attract a small number of new residents – on homeownership and land use. We show that, if a strictly positive cost is required for ownership abandonment, selling used houses is impossible in the periphery, while leasing is possible. We also show that only long-life-quality houses, which require a larger initial investment and sustain greater utility for longer than conventional ones, attract new residents to the periphery. Social welfare may decrease, because the government has to maintain the slowly shrinking, less densely inhabited urban area.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Sectoral Indices in Indonesia

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bambang Sutrisno
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on sectoral indices in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The difference in sensitiveness among sectors is an interesting issue to investigate this relationship in an emerging market, such as Indonesia. This study employs ordinary least square (OLS) as an estimation method with monthly time-series data from January 2005 to December 2014. The results document that the interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on sectoral indices in Indonesia. The interest rate partially shows a significant negative influence on all sectors except basic industry and chemical, finance, infrastructure, utilities, and transportation, and miscellaneous industry sectors. The inflation rate partially has no significant effect on all sectors. The exchange rate partially has a significant negative impact on all industries.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v16i1.4323

The Effect of Macroeconomic Conditions on the Performance of Vietnamese Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 73-82
Author(s):  
Hien-Ly Pham ◽  
Ching-Chung Lin ◽  
Shih-Ju Chan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Global Supply Chain ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions ◽  
The Impact

Vietnam plays an important role in the global supply chain. As one of important emerging markets, many studies have focused on Vietnam-related issues. Vietnam established two stock markets in 2000s. The market performance becomes one of interesting issues to explore. This study is to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables, including inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, imports, exports, and gold price, on Ho Chi Minh stock market. The study period is from July 2000 to October 2014. Using the monthly data collected from Vietnam General Statistic Office, IMF International Financial Statistics, and Ho Chi Minh stock exchange, the empirical findings of our regression model show that there exists a positive relationship for imports and gold price, while the relationships for exchange rate and interest rate are negative. No significant relationship has been found for the variables of inflation rate and exports.

Measuring the Impact of Financial Crisis

2016 ◽  
pp. 274-283
Author(s):  
İsmail Yıldırım
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stress ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Destructive Effect ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Financial Stress Index ◽  
The Impact

Crisis in 2001 and global financial crisis in 2008 effect Turk economy in a lot of ways. Financial crisis creates destructive effect especially on increasing market economies. It is not so easy to watch occurring of this financial crisis and determining of its expanding. First of all determining of crisis terms are needed to predict of financial crisis. In this part, a financial stress index is composed by using TL interest rate and monthly data of global gross reserves belongs to $/TL exchange rate between 1997:01-2014:12 terms for Turkey. Months when financial stress index raised to top level for Turkey and financial crisis are observed on, are found as February(2001) and November (2008).

scholarly journals Sustainable and Optimal “Uniqueness” Contract in Public-Private Partnership Projects of Transportation Infrastructure

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Yingjun Zhu ◽  
Zhitong Gao ◽  
Ruihai Li
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Public Private Partnership ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Private Capital ◽  
Equilibrium Relation ◽  
Private Partnership ◽  
The Public ◽  
Welfare Losses ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

To control the “uniqueness” risk in Public-Private Partnership (PPP) projects of transportation infrastructure, we design a simplified “uniqueness” contract model by incorporating the impact of the initial investment which is based on the Bertrand model. The nonlinear programming method is adopted to derive the optimal “uniqueness” contracts for incumbent private capital, the public, and the social welfare, respectively. The simulation results show that the achievement of the optimal “uniqueness” contract is essentially the result of a compromise between the private capital, the public, and social welfare. The extent to which such a contract reduces the probability of “uniqueness” risk mainly depends on the equilibrium relation between the interests of private capital and the public. The initial investment is not related to the government default when the contract does not take into account the interests of the private capital. Furthermore, the “uniqueness” contracts between private capital and the government are mainly for anticompetitive purpose in the PPP market of transportation infrastructure. Unless the contract terms focus on the improvement of social welfare, entering a “uniqueness” contract will cause social welfare losses.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document