Demographic futures

This chapter examines debates about future demographic patterns. It shows that the case for immediate cutbacks in spending and for the restructuring of pensions, health, and social care to defuse a presumed ‘demographic time-bomb’ is not compelling. The chapter then considers alternative demographic scenarios and sets out some guidelines for policies for coping with future demographic change, recognising the contributions that older citizens can make to society.

Citizenship in a diverse and multicultural society

This chapter examines the political and cultural challenges posed by the growth of the non-white population in Europe. It reviews the chief current policy responses – assimilation, integration, and multiculturalism – in the context of claims by politicians in Germany, France, and the UK that ‘multiculturalism is dead’. The chapter distinguishes between two multicultural approaches: a valuing of diversity that accords full recognition to differences between cultural groups within a liberal democratic framework; and a multiculturalism that values cultural interaction and social mixing but withholds institutional recognition from groups, especially religious ones. The first approach may unintentionally strengthen barriers between groups and foster segregation, whilst the second may marginalise certain cultural orientations and communities. The chapter concludes by analysing the emerging ethnic fault lines across Europe and stresses the significance of a shift from colour to religion as the foundation of group identity, with major implications for the relationship between religion and politics.

The ‘Big Society’ and concentrated neighbourhood problems

This chapter examines the notion of the ‘Big Society’, introduced by David Cameron in 2009, which empowers citizens to deal with local issues that are not high on the political agenda. It traces the origins of community politics in the co-operative institutions that people set up to manage the pressures and problems of eighteenth- and nineteenth-century industrialisation. The chapter argues that the Big Society is not an alternative to government but that, to be effective, the two must operate within a framework of mutual support.

Building a new politics?

This chapter first examines the evidence that political alienation and disengagement is not evenly spread among all sections of British society, and indeed appears to be concentrating among some of the most disadvantaged in society. It then addresses the following question: Does it matter that some citizens are alienated from politics? The final section considers the issue of how to design solutions, and contrasts the approach of political engineers with that of democratic designers. It asks what further work social scientists might contribute to understanding and exploring the challenge of building a new politics.

Climate change and public policy futures

This chapter addresses some issues posed by climate change for thinking about public policy futures. It begins by summarising the scientific consensus and the case of climate change sceptics; the chapter also considers public opinion and the interests behind the ‘denial industry’. It then develops a framework for thinking about the policy impacts of climate change risks, and briefly summarises direct and indirect impacts. The rest of the chapter concentrates on the impact of climate change mitigation policies on public policy futures. It is argued that adequate and practicable responses cannot be generated within current policy frameworks. Current policies place too great an emphasis on economic incentives and fail to exploit the additional opportunities to reduce emissions through direct regulation or stronger leadership in cultural change.

Squaring the public policy circle

This chapter examines the strategies that have been developed to manage the dilemma between maintaining services and constraint. These include shifting responsibility in various areas towards the market and the individual or voluntary sector, target-setting, manifold attempts to manage and restrain public provision, and attempts to change people's behaviour to cut demand. It argues that none of these approaches is entirely acceptable to public opinion and none has been markedly successful in solving the problem. This suggests that the dilemma of spending versus cutting will continue to underlie policy-making, that future policies must combine a range of approaches, and that greater attention to fostering a more informed and genuinely democratic debate is necessary so that new policy directions will be able to gain public support.

Economic Futures

This chapter analyses the future of the British economy. It argues that a political economy perspective is necessary to understand the debates surrounding economic growth, and reviews the way in which commentators have analysed the challenges facing public policy. The chapter then examines debates about the financial crash and the deficit, the role and size of the state, and the appropriate growth model. The major alternative approaches to growth currently under discussion lie between a return to the liberal financial model – dominant since the 1980s and sometimes termed ‘privatised Keynesianism’ – and greater government intervention to restore the role of the manufacturing sector, possibly involving a shift to a more European-style corporatism. The chapter concludes by considering three scenarios: a return to growth; a shift in the international environment that renders austerity permanent; and the imposition of radical changes to curb expansion and cut back carbon emissions to sustainable levels.

Introduction: public policy at a crossroads

This chapter sets out the book's purpose, which is to examine the basic questions that confront twenty-first century policy-making: finding a way forward for the British economy; the dilemma of coping with rising demand in the context of limited resources; how to respond to climate change; managing ethnic diversity as multiculturalism appears to have lost its way; whether demographic change equates with a growing burden of dependency; under what circumstances localism helps resolve concentrated neighbourhood problems; and how to overcome public disaffection with politics. An overview of the subsequent chapters is also presented.

How social science can contribute to public policy

This chapter returns to the question of how social scientists can contribute to public policy. First, it is desirable to open up the range of approaches and orientations available to policy-making by ensuring that those involved are recruited from a wide range of communities, by analysing how policy objectives are selected and defined, and by promoting greater interplay at different career stages between government and academic life. Second, social science must develop, alongside the academic research that is at its heart, a ‘design arm’ directed at practical issues and concerned with the application of research findings in improving policy outcomes.