From Event Reports to Protest Analysis

This chapter introduces the main elements of the research design for the empirical chapters in the book. Starting with the event reports provided by the Mass Mobilization in Autocracies Database, the chapter develops a research design that studies variation in local Internet penetration and anti-regime protest. The chapter motivates the choice of the sub-national unit of observation (cities), and temporal units of analysis (years, weeks). It introduces a new measure of Internet penetration derived from network measurements, developed in collaboration with computer scientists. The high level of spatial and temporal resolution allows for one of the most detailed analyses so far in the study of mass protest. The chapter also introduces the statistical models used for the analysis. The book relies on Bayesian multilevel models, a framework that takes into account the hierarchical structure of the data and has advantages in the analysis of data with skewed dependent variables.

Introduction

The introduction of the book starts out by distinguishing between two narratives about the effect of the Internet in autocratic systems: According to “liberation technology” proponents, Internet technology is likely to empower activists in autocracies by reducing autocratic governments ability to control the ow of information and communication, while the “repression technology” perspective emphasizes the sinister ways by which autocratic regimes can use the Internet for propaganda and surveillance. The chapter argues that in order to advance the scientific debate, research should move beyond this overly simple distinction, and needs to identify the conditions under which this technology helps protesters vs. when it benefits dictators. This requires a more nuanced conception of protest and its different stages, but also better, more fine-grained data of protest and Internet penetration.

Conclusion

The final chapter concludes the book with a summary of the key findings and a discussion of their academic and policy implications. The main insight is that increasing Internet penetration helps to keep the occurrence of protest low, but catalyzes ongoing dissent once it has started. This shows that the introduction and expansion of the Internet is a double-edged sword for autocratic governments. The book also shows, however, that violent repression against public protest continues to be an effective tactic employed by autocratic governments. At the same time, autocrats seem to be substituting these traditional forms of political control with digital ones, where the Internet can help reduce levels of popular mobilization when there are fewer institutional channels. This is an important insight for policy-makers, as it shows that seeming improvements in autocratic politics could simply be due to shifts in the ways by which political control is exerted.

Reinforcement or Substitution? Internet and Protest across Different Autocracies

Autocratic regimes differ in the extent of individual freedoms they grant their citizens. In particular, in some autocracies, citizens are allowed to form organizations, while in others, freedom of association is severely restricted. Does digital communication serve as an alternative means to mobilize, thereby bypassing traditional restrictions in autocracies? The book analyzes the effect of Internet penetration on protest across different national environments, to test if the effect varies across depending on existing strategies of autocratic rule. In particular, it distinguishes between two scenarios: reinforcement of traditional forms of authoritarian control, where the Internet is used to strengthen traditional repression, and substitution, where the Internet helps autocratic governments regain control they have given up by partly liberalizing the political arena. The chapter presents empirical evidence in support of the latter scenario, which suggests that the Internet helps autocrats maintain political control that they no longer have through institutional channels.

Coding Protest Events in Autocracies

This chapter addresses the need for fine-grained data on protest in autocracies. It discusses in detail the challenges arising when coding events from media reports: (i) the selection of news agencies and outlets, (ii) the selection of relevant news reports, (iii) the problem of information extraction, and (iv) the problem of aggregation, where multiple reports about a single event need to be aggregated into individual events. The chapter then introduces the Mass Mobilization in Autocracies Database (MMAD), which constitutes the core for the empirical analysis in this book. Based on media reports from global news sources, the authors created an event database of protest, where each event is coded with its precise day and location (city), as well as a number of event characteristics (number of protesters, level of violence, etc.). The main innovation of the MMAD is that it provides users with a final list of event reports, which can later be aggregated to individual events.

Internet Coverage and the Spatial Diffusion of Protest

The book also examines the impact of Internet technology on the diffusion of protest within countries. Building on similar informational arguments as in Chapter 7, the chapter elaborates on how Internet technology can transmit information from cities with protest to other cities in the same country, potentially inspiring further outbreaks of protest. The analysis in this chapter uses fine-grained data on protest and Internet connectivity to test the diffusion effect of Internet technology. The results of the analysis reveal that prior protest in a country indeed increases the likelihood of further outbreaks. This effect, however, seems to be driven by protest in cities with high connectivity, which quickly helps disseminate information to other places in the country. This effect is time-dependent, and it is strongest immediately after protest has happened. Unlike in the previous chapter, the authors find no evidence of repression preventing protest diffusion.

Internet Coverage and the Occurrence of Protest

This chapter presents an empirical first look at the relationship between Internet technology and protest occurrence at the level of cities. The authors argue that the expansion of Internet coverage should lower the incidence rate of anti-regime protest: governments enjoy a high level of control over Internet technology and content, which they can use to prevent protest. Building on the book’s research design introduced in Chapter 4, the chapter tests this theoretical expectation by presenting descriptive statistics and later by estimating multilevel regression models. In line with the authors’ argument, the analysis reveals a negative effect of Internet penetration on protest incidence. In other words, high Internet penetration in a given city reduces the likelihood of anti-regime protest incidence in autocracies. This effect is robust across a number of different model specifications and time periods.

Political Mobilization in Autocracies in the Digital Age

Chapter 2 first defines the main concepts of the book. It uses the well-known framework of explanations for political protest, consisting of individual motives, resource mobilization, and political opportunity. In comparison to conventional communication technologies such as newspapers, television, and phones, the advent of the Internet affects protest mobilization in different ways: it increases the speed and availability of the network, changes the nature of the transmitted information, and possesses a network structure that can be less susceptible to government interference. The chapter reviews the existing literature on the relationship between Internet technology and protest within the framework of motives, mobilization, and political opportunity. Even though this literature has recognized that the Internet is neither exclusively beneficial nor detrimental to protest mobilization, it still has failed to identify the conditions under which digital technology helps protesters or autocratic governments.

Internet Coverage and the Temporal Dynamics of Protest

The results Chapter 6 have shown that Internet technology suppresses the occurrence of protest, but how does the technology affect the persistence of protest once it has started? This chapter revisits theoretical arguments for how Internet technology can affect the continuation of protest by facilitating the spread of information about ongoing protest, but also about violent repression by the government. It presents empirical tests of how Internet connectivity relates to the persistence of anti-regime protest. The results show that while the technology lowers the chance that protest occurs in the first place, it makes the continuation of protest more likely once it has started. The chapter also uncovers important heterogeneity in the catalyzing effect of Internet technology: it fuels future protest only if the autocratic regime did not respond with violent repression to the previous instance of unrest. In other words, information about ongoing protest disseminated online can catalyze protest, but the government’s repressive response crucially mediates this effect.

Internet Technology and Political Protest

The chapter proposes a refined theoretical approach to distinguish the conditions under which digital technology fosters the emergence of protest, and under which it suppresses it. At the core of this theory is the observation that control of the Internet is asymmetrical, where governments decide when and where to introduce and expand this technology in their countries. Facing economic pressure to innovate, governments will try to minimize political risks using the Internet to improve governance, but also to censor content and improve surveillance. Hence, increasing Internet penetration should be related to reduced protest occurrence in the long run. Once protest has broken out, however, it is difficult to quickly contain the spread of ongoing dissent through online channels, which is why the Internet may foster the persistence and diffusion of protest. The chapter also highlights that the effect of digital communication on protest has to be considered in conjunction with traditional means of repression that continue to be available to autocratic governments.