Plan Needed to Prevent Infectious Disease Spread via Air Travel

JAMA ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 315 (6) ◽  
pp. 549
Author(s):  
Rita Rubin
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Disease Spread

scholarly journals Successive Approximation, Variational Iteration, and Multistage-Analytical Methods for a SEIR Model of Infectious Disease Involving Vaccination Strategy

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-126
Author(s):  
Sudi Mungkasi
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Successive Approximation ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Analytical Method ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Approximate Solutions ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Variational Iteration ◽  
Iteration Methods

We consider a SEIR model for the spread (transmission) of an infectious disease. The model has played an important role due to world pandemic disease spread cases. Our contributions in this paper are three folds. Our first contribution is to provide successive approximation and variational iteration methods to obtain analytical approximate solutions to the SEIR model. Our second contribution is to prove that for solving the SEIR model, the variational iteration and successive approximation methods are identical when we have some particular values of Lagrange multipliers in the variational iteration formulation. Third, we propose a new multistage-analytical method for solving the SEIR model. Computational experiments show that the successive approximation and variational iteration methods are accurate for small size of time domain. In contrast, our proposed multistage-analytical method is successful to solve the SEIR model very accurately for large size of time domain. Furthermore, the order of accuracy of the multistage-analytical method can be made higher simply by taking more number of successive iterations in the multistage evolution.

Employing Agent-based Modeling to Mitigate Infectious Disease Spread

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 390-394
Author(s):  
Michael Schwartz ◽  
Paul Oppold ◽  
Boniface Noyongoyo ◽  
Peter Hancock
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Agent Based Modeling ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Effective Measure ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Personal Learning ◽  
Business Operations ◽  
Interpersonal Factors ◽  
Reduce Risk

The current pandemic has tested systems in place as to how to fight infectious diseases in many countries. COVID-19 spreads quickly and is deadly. However, it can be controlled through different measures such as physical distancing. The current project examines through simulation model of the UCF Global building the potential spread of an infectious disease via AnyLogic Personal Learning Edition (PLE) 8.7.0 on a laptop running Windows 10. The goal is to determine the environmental and interpersonal factors that could be modified to reduce risk of illness while maintaining typical business operations. Multiple experiments were ran to see when there is a potential change in infection and spread rate. Results show that increases occur with density between 400 and 500. To curtail the spread it is therefore important to limit contact through physical distancing for it has been proven an effective measure for reducing the spread of viral infections.

scholarly journals Household members do not contact each other at random: implications for infectious disease modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 285 (1893) ◽  
pp. 20182201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nele Goeyvaerts ◽  
Eva Santermans ◽  
Gail Potter ◽  
Andrea Torneri ◽  
Kim Van Kerckhove ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Household Contact ◽  
Epidemic Models ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Density ◽  
Contact Networks ◽  
Household Transmission ◽  
Household Members ◽  
Contact Survey

Airborne infectious diseases such as influenza are primarily transmitted from human to human by means of social contacts, and thus easily spread within households. Epidemic models, used to gain insight into infectious disease spread and control, typically rely on the assumption of random mixing within households. Until now, there has been no direct empirical evidence to support this assumption. Here, we present the first social contact survey specifically designed to study contact networks within households. The survey was conducted in Belgium (Flanders and Brussels) from 2010 to 2011. We analysed data from 318 households totalling 1266 individuals with household sizes ranging from two to seven members. Exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) were fitted to the within-household contact networks to reveal the processes driving contact between household members, both on weekdays and weekends. The ERGMs showed a high degree of clustering and, specifically on weekdays, decreasing connectedness with increasing household size. Furthermore, we found that the odds of a contact between older siblings and between father and child are smaller than for any other pair. The epidemic simulation results suggest that within-household contact density is the main driver of differences in epidemic spread between complete and empirical-based household contact networks. The homogeneous mixing assumption may therefore be an adequate characterization of the within-household contact structure for the purpose of epidemic simulations. However, ignoring the contact density when inferring based on an epidemic model will result in biased estimates of within-household transmission rates. Further research regarding the implementation of within-household contact networks in epidemic models is necessary.

The Power of Inclusion

2021 ◽  
pp. 421-438
Author(s):  
Erasmos Charamba
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Electronic Mail ◽  
World Wide ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Science Students ◽  
Wide Spread ◽  
The World ◽  
E Learning

The year 2019 saw the emergence of COVID-19, an infectious disease spread through human-to-human transmission. This resulted in the immediate worldwide suspension of contact classes as countries tried to contain the wide spread of the pandemic. Consequently, educational institutions were thus left with only one option: e-learning. E-learning is the delivery of learning experiences through the use of electronic mail, the internet, the world wide web, and it can either be synchronous or asynchronous. Through the translanguaging lens, this chapter reports on a qualitative study that sought to explore the crucial role language plays in the e-learning of multilingual science students at a secondary school in South Africa. The e-learning lessons were in the form of videos, multilingual glossaries, and narrated slides in English and isiZulu languages. Data was collected through lesson observations and interviews held via Microsoft Teams. This chapter suggests numerous cognitive and socio-cultural benefits of multilingual e-learning pedagogy and recommends its use in education.

scholarly journals Flying ticks: anciently evolved associations that constitute a risk of infectious disease spread

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
José de la Fuente ◽  
Agustín Estrada-Peña ◽  
Alejandro Cabezas-Cruz ◽  
Ricardo Brey
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Spread

Multi-locus sequence typing confirms the clonality ofTrichomonas gallinaeisolates circulating in European finches

Parasitology ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 141 (5) ◽  
pp. 652-661 ◽  
Author(s):  
PETRA GANAS ◽  
BARBARA JASKULSKA ◽  
BECKI LAWSON ◽  
MARKO ZADRAVEC ◽  
MICHAEL HESS ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
18S Rrna ◽  
Multi Locus Sequence Typing ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Passerine Birds ◽  
Sequence Analyses ◽  
Trichomonas Gallinae ◽  
Fringilla Coelebs ◽  
Clonal Strain ◽  
The Uk

SUMMARYIn recent years,Trichomonas gallinaeemerged as the causative agent of an infectious disease of passerine birds in Europe leading to epidemic mortality of especially greenfinchesChloris chlorisand chaffinchesFringilla coelebs. After the appearance of finch trichomonosis in the UK and Fennoscandia, the disease spread to Central Europe. Finch trichomonosis first reached Austria and Slovenia in 2012. In the present study the genetic heterogeneity ofT. gallinaeisolates from incidents in Austria and Slovenia were investigated and compared with British isolates. For this purpose comparative sequence analyses of the four genomic loci ITS1-5.8S-ITS2, 18S rRNA,rpb1and Fe-hydrogenase were performed. The results corroborate that one clonalT. gallinaestrain caused the emerging infectious disease within passerine birds and that the disease is continuing to spread in Europe. The same clonal strain was also found in a columbid bird from Austria. Additionally, the present study demonstrates clearly the importance of multi-locus sequence typing for discrimination of circulatingT. gallinaestrains.

scholarly journals (A182) Model to Assess Geo-Temporal Spread of Disease by Air Travel from Major World Cities to the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (S1) ◽  
pp. s51-s51
Author(s):  
G.M. Hwang ◽  
T. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Infected Individual ◽  
Population Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
The Us ◽  
Control And Prevention

With increasing numbers of international flights and air travelers arriving in the US annually, the rapid spread of communicable diseases has grown. Epidemics of novel infectious diseases have emerged and rapidly spread globally in association with air travel, including the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003 and H1N1 in 2009. In order to anticipate and mitigate the consequences of future rapid disease spread, the MITRE Corporation, in collaboration with the (US) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, developed a risk assessment tool using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered model and detailed flight and population data. The emergence and spread of prototypic pandemic influenza was simulated based on a theoretical geographical point of origin and its communicability. More than 50 international metropolitan areas were analyzed as potential points of origin to simulate the rapidity of spread to the US. The basic reproduction number (Ro), defined as the average number of persons to whom one infected individual transmits disease in an immune naive population, was varied from 1.4 to 1.9. The starting numbers of infectious persons at each origin also were varied (100 or 500 persons, 5% infectious may travel). Waves were computed as aggregate across metropolitan areas modeled in the US. The visualization of the first pandemic wave was most apparent in simulations of Ro = 1.9, resulting from 500 infectious persons at each origin. More than 50% of origins indicated that aggregate waves peaked around Day 125, while 30% of origins peaked around Day 90. Additionally, the time, in days, from its origin in six continents into the US was compared, and a two-week delay was found from South America compared with other continents. This simulation tool better equips policy makers and public health officials to quickly assess risk and leverage resources efficiently via targeted and scalable border mitigation measures during a rapid global outbreak.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document