Challenges Performing Risk Assessment in the Arctic

2011 ◽  
pp. 521-536 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gro Harlaug Olsen ◽  
JoLynn Carroll ◽  
Salve Dahle ◽  
Lars-Henrik Larsen ◽  
Lionel Camus
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
The Arctic

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

Áhrif loftlagsbreytinga á vatnsveitur og vatnsgæði á Íslandi – áhættuþættir og aðgerðir

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 5-19
Author(s):  
María J. Gunnarsdóttir ◽  
Sigurður Magnús Garðarsson ◽  
Hrund Ólöf Andradóttir ◽  
Alfreð Schiöth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Surveillance Area ◽  
The Arctic Region

Climate change is expected to have impact on water supply and drinking water quality in Iceland. Foremost there are three influential weather-related factors; increase in temperature; rise in sea level; and seasonal and regional change in precipitation in both quantity and intensity. In this study international and local reports and articles were analyzed for expected impact on the water resource with emphasis on the northern and the arctic region. Water quality risk factors were analyzed based on surveillance data of the water supplies from the Local Competent Authorities. Preliminary risk assessment of landslides and flooding was performed in one surveillance area in northern Iceland.

scholarly journals A Behavioral Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework for Managing Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployments

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 1689-1703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Brito ◽  
Gwyn Griffiths ◽  
James Ferguson ◽  
David Hopkin ◽  
Richard Mills ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Operational Risk ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Underwater Vehicle ◽  
Behavioral Approach ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Deep Diving

Abstract The deployment of a deep-diving long-range autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is a complex operation that requires the use of a risk-informed decision-making process. Operational risk assessment is heavily dependent on expert subjective judgment. Expert judgments can be elicited either mathematically or behaviorally. During mathematical elicitation experts are kept separate and provide their assessment individually. These are then mathematically combined to create a judgment that represents the group view. The limitation with this approach is that experts do not have the opportunity to discuss different views and thus remove bias from their assessment. In this paper, a Bayesian behavioral approach to estimate and manage AUV operational risk is proposed. At an initial workshop, behavioral aggregation, that is, reaching agreement on the distributions of risks for faults or incidents, is followed by an agreed upon initial estimate of the likelihood of success of the proposed risk mitigation methods. Postexpedition, a second workshop assesses the new data and compares observed to predicted risk, thus updating the prior estimate using Bayes’ rule. This feedback further educates the experts and assesses the actual effectiveness of the mitigation measures. Applying this approach to an AUV campaign in ice-covered waters in the Arctic showed that the maximum error between the predicted and the actual risk was 9% and that the experts’ assessments of the effectiveness of risk mitigation led to a maximum of 24% in risk reduction.

A fisheries risk-assessment framework to evaluate trade-offs among management options in the presence of time-varying productivity

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy S. Collie ◽  
Randall M. Peterman ◽  
Brett M. Zuehlke
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Oncorhynchus Keta ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Commercial Catch ◽  
Trade Offs

Empirically based simulation models can help fisheries managers make difficult decisions involving trade-offs between harvests and maintaining spawner abundance, especially when data contain uncertainties. We developed such a general risk-assessment framework and applied it to chum salmon ( Oncorhynchus keta ) stocks in the Arctic–Yukon–Kuskokwim region of Alaska, USA. These stocks experienced low abundance in the 1990s, which led to declarations of economic disaster and calls for changes in harvest strategies. Our stochastic model provides decision makers with quantitative information about trade-offs among commercial harvest, subsistence harvest, and spawner abundance. The model included outcome uncertainty (the difference between target and realized spawner abundances) in the subsistence and commercial catch modules. We also used closed-loop simulations to investigate the utility of time-varying management policies in which target spawner abundance changed in response to changes in the Ricker productivity parameter (a), as estimated with a Kalman filter. Time-varying policies resulted in higher escapements and catches and reduced risk across a range of harvest rates. The resulting generic risk-assessment framework can be used to evaluate harvest guidelines for most salmon stocks.

scholarly journals Arctic shipping insurance: towards a harmonisation of practices and costs?

Polar Record ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélie Sarrabezoles ◽  
Frédéric Lasserre ◽  
Zebret Hagouagn’rin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Shipping Company ◽  
Risk Assessment Process ◽  
Insurance Premiums ◽  
Insurance Policies ◽  
Arctic Shipping ◽  
Insurance Firms ◽  
The Cost

ABSTRACTInsurance is an important component of shipping costs, albeit minor when compared to capital, crew or fuel. If the literature of Arctic shipping agrees that insurance premiums are likely to be higher for Arctic shipping, no study so far has tried to assess the cost of Arctic shipping insurance premiums, nor what specific demands insurance firms might formulate before agreeing to give coverage to a shipping company, thus presenting obstacles to entry in the Arctic shipping market. We first present insurance policies and costs as they are discussed in the literature on Arctic shipping. We also sketch out how their risk-assessment process was influenced by the IMO (International Maritime Organization) and classification societies. Then we outline the results of a survey conducted between 2012 and 2013 with insurance firms on their Arctic shipping policies.

scholarly journals Do Vessels Remain Within Their Operational Limitations in Ice? Analyzing the Risks of Vessels Operating in the Kara Sea Region Using POLARIS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabil Panchi ◽  
Ekaterina Kim ◽  
Sheng Xu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Code ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Antarctic Research Institute ◽  
Indexing System ◽  
Antarctic Research

Abstract This study investigates whether the vessels remain within their operational limitations in ice using the risk index calculated based on the Polar Operational Limitations Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) — an acceptable methodology for the assessment of operational limitations in ice infested waters, referenced in the Polar Code of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The speeds and positions of the vessels in the Kara Sea region were analyzed from January through April for 2017–2019 using the navigational data provided by the Northern Sea Route Administration. For each vessel, except for the icebreakers, the risk index based on POLARIS was calculated using the open-access ice information that was provided by the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute in Russia. The variation of risk index was analyzed with respect to various parameters such as the ice-class of the vessel, the reported operating speed of the vessel, and the built year of the vessel. Furthermore, we explored the limitations of the risk assessment system as well as the limitations of the available ice information and its implications on the risk assessment system. This paper reports preliminary results from the analysis.

scholarly journals Quantification and Risk Assessment of Hydrocarbon Resources Development Projects in the Arctic Region

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 168-195
Author(s):  
Mikhail N. Dudin ◽  
◽  
Nikolai V. Lyasnikov ◽  
Oleg D. Protsenko ◽  
Valery A. Tsvetkov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
The Arctic Region ◽  
Resources Development
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