A review of tree-based prognostic models

1995 ◽  
pp. 113-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael LeBlanc ◽  
John Crowley
Keyword(s):  
Prognostic Models

Development and validation of risk stratification models for adult spinal deformity surgery

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 587-599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ferran Pellisé ◽  
Miquel Serra-Burriel ◽  
Justin S. Smith ◽  
Sleiman Haddad ◽  
Michael P. Kelly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spinal Deformity ◽  
Adult Spinal Deformity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Adverse Outcomes ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Time To Event ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Event Risk ◽  
Risk Estimates

OBJECTIVEAdult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery has a high rate of major complications (MCs). Public information about adverse outcomes is currently limited to registry average estimates. The object of this study was to assess the incidence of adverse events after ASD surgery, and to develop and validate a prognostic tool for the time-to-event risk of MC, hospital readmission (RA), and unplanned reoperation (RO).METHODSTwo models per outcome, created with a random survival forest algorithm, were trained in an 80% random split and tested in the remaining 20%. Two independent prospective multicenter ASD databases, originating from the European continent and the United States, were queried, merged, and analyzed. ASD patients surgically treated by 57 surgeons at 23 sites in 5 countries in the period from 2008 to 2016 were included in the analysis.RESULTSThe final sample consisted of 1612 ASD patients: mean (standard deviation) age 56.7 (17.4) years, 76.6% women, 10.4 (4.3) fused vertebral levels, 55.1% of patients with pelvic fixation, 2047.9 observation-years. Kaplan-Meier estimates showed that 12.1% of patients had at least one MC at 10 days after surgery; 21.5%, at 90 days; and 36%, at 2 years. Discrimination, measured as the concordance statistic, was up to 71.7% (95% CI 68%–75%) in the development sample for the postoperative complications model. Surgical invasiveness, age, magnitude of deformity, and frailty were the strongest predictors of MCs. Individual cumulative risk estimates at 2 years ranged from 3.9% to 74.1% for MCs, from 3.17% to 44.2% for RAs, and from 2.67% to 51.9% for ROs.CONCLUSIONSThe creation of accurate prognostic models for the occurrence and timing of MCs, RAs, and ROs following ASD surgery is possible. The presented variability in patient risk profiles alongside the discrimination and calibration of the models highlights the potential benefits of obtaining time-to-event risk estimates for patients and clinicians.

Enhancement of Physics-of-Failure Prognostic Models with System Level Features

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory J. Kacprzynski ◽  
Michael J. Roemer ◽  
Girish Modgil ◽  
Andrea Palladino ◽  
Kenneth Maynard
Keyword(s):  
System Level ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Physics Of Failure

scholarly journals Predicting COVID-19 mortality with electronic medical records

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Estiri ◽  
Zachary H. Strasser ◽  
Jeffy G. Klann ◽  
Pourandokht Naseri ◽  
Kavishwar B. Wagholikar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Medical Information ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Smoking History ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Clinical Expertise ◽  
History Of

AbstractThis study aims to predict death after COVID-19 using only the past medical information routinely collected in electronic health records (EHRs) and to understand the differences in risk factors across age groups. Combining computational methods and clinical expertise, we curated clusters that represent 46 clinical conditions as potential risk factors for death after a COVID-19 infection. We trained age-stratified generalized linear models (GLMs) with component-wise gradient boosting to predict the probability of death based on what we know from the patients before they contracted the virus. Despite only relying on previously documented demographics and comorbidities, our models demonstrated similar performance to other prognostic models that require an assortment of symptoms, laboratory values, and images at the time of diagnosis or during the course of the illness. In general, we found age as the most important predictor of mortality in COVID-19 patients. A history of pneumonia, which is rarely asked in typical epidemiology studies, was one of the most important risk factors for predicting COVID-19 mortality. A history of diabetes with complications and cancer (breast and prostate) were notable risk factors for patients between the ages of 45 and 65 years. In patients aged 65–85 years, diseases that affect the pulmonary system, including interstitial lung disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and a smoking history, were important for predicting mortality. The ability to compute precise individual-level risk scores exclusively based on the EHR is crucial for effectively allocating and distributing resources, such as prioritizing vaccination among the general population.

Assessment of acute heart failure prognosis: the promising role of prognostic models and biomarkers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos P. E. Kadoglou ◽  
John Parissis ◽  
Apostolos Karavidas ◽  
Ioannis Kanonidis ◽  
Marialena Trivella
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Acute Heart Failure ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Failure Prognosis

scholarly journals Machine Learning Use for Prognostic Purposes in Multiple Sclerosis

Life ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Ruggiero Seccia ◽  
Silvia Romano ◽  
Marco Salvetti ◽  
Andrea Crisanti ◽  
Laura Palagi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Early Prediction ◽  
Disease Course ◽  
Slow Progression ◽  
Relapsing Remitting ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Effective Drugs

The course of multiple sclerosis begins with a relapsing-remitting phase, which evolves into a secondarily progressive form over an extremely variable period, depending on many factors, each with a subtle influence. To date, no prognostic factors or risk score have been validated to predict disease course in single individuals. This is increasingly frustrating, since several treatments can prevent relapses and slow progression, even for a long time, although the possible adverse effects are relevant, in particular for the more effective drugs. An early prediction of disease course would allow differentiation of the treatment based on the expected aggressiveness of the disease, reserving high-impact therapies for patients at greater risk. To increase prognostic capacity, approaches based on machine learning (ML) algorithms are being attempted, given the failure of other approaches. Here we review recent studies that have used clinical data, alone or with other types of data, to derive prognostic models. Several algorithms that have been used and compared are described. Although no study has proposed a clinically usable model, knowledge is building up and in the future strong tools are likely to emerge.

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