Fuzzy Climate Scenarios for Temperature Indicate that Things Could Be Worse Than Previously Thought

According to global climate projections, a substantial global climate change will occur during the next decades, under the assumption of continuous anthropogenic climate forcing. Global models, although fundamental in simulating the response of the climate system to anthropogenic forcing are typically geographically too coarse to well represent many regional or local features. In the Nordic region, climate studies are conducted in each of the Nordic countries to prepare regional climate projections with more detail than in global ones. Results so far indicate larger temperature changes in the Nordic region than in the global mean, regional increases and decreases in net precipitation, longer growing season, shorter snow season etc. These in turn affect runoff, snowpack, groundwater, soil frost and moisture, and thus hydropower production potential, flooding risks etc. Regional climate models do not yet fully incorporate hydrology. Water resources studies are carried out off-line using hydrological models. This requires archived meteorological output from climate models. This paper discusses Nordic regional climate scenarios for use in regional water resources studies. Potential end-users of water resources scenarios are the hydropower industry, dam safety instances and planners of other lasting infrastructure exposed to precipitation, river flows and flooding.

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Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

10.2172/1170412 ◽

2015 ◽

Author(s):

Nathaniel Brunsell ◽

David Mechem ◽

Chunsheng Ma

Keyword(s):

Regional Scale ◽

Extreme Value ◽

Extreme Value Statistics ◽

Climate Scenarios

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Building a Resilient Tomorrow

10.1093/oso/9780190909345.001.0001 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Alice C. Hill ◽

Leonardo Martinez-Diaz

Keyword(s):

Global Climate Change ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Related Disease ◽

Climate Resilience ◽

Personal Experiences ◽

Financial Disincentives ◽

Biological Solutions

Even under the most optimistic scenarios, significant global climate change is now inevitable. Although we cannot tell with certainty how much average global temperatures will rise, we do know that the warming we have experienced to date has already caused significant losses, and that the failure to prepare for the consequences of further warming may prove to be staggering. This book does not dwell on overhyped descriptions of apocalyptic climate scenarios, nor does it travel down well-trodden paths surrounding the politics of reducing carbon emissions. Instead, it starts with two central facts: there will be future climate impacts, and we can make changes now to buffer their effects. While squarely confronting the scale of the risks we face, this pragmatic guide focuses on solutions—some gradual and some more revolutionary—currently being deployed around the globe. Each chapter presents a thematic lesson for decision-makers and engaged citizens to consider, outlining replicable successes and identifying provocative recommendations to strengthen climate resilience. Between discussions of ideas as wide-ranging as managed retreat from coastal hot zones to biological solutions for resurgent climate-related disease threats, the authors draw on their personal experiences to tell behind-the-scenes stories of what it really takes to advance progress on these issues. The narrative is dotted with stories of on-the-ground citizenry, from small-town mayors and bankers to generals and engineers, who are chipping away at financial disincentives and bureaucratic hurdles to prepare for life on a warmer planet.

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Corrigendum to “How climate scenarios alter future predictions of field-scale water and nitrogen dynamics and crop yields” [J. Environ. Manag. 252 (2019) 109623]

Journal of Environmental Management ◽

10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109776 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 255 ◽

pp. 109776

Author(s):

Hanseok Jeong ◽

Rabin Bhattarai ◽

Syewoon Hwang

Keyword(s):

Crop Yields ◽

Nitrogen Dynamics ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Field Scale

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Fertilization and Shading Trials to Promote Pinus nigra Seedlings’ Nursery Growth under the Climate Change Demands

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13063563 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (6) ◽

pp. 3563

Author(s):

Marianthi Tsakaldimi ◽

Panagiota Giannaki ◽

Vladan Ivetić ◽

Nikoleta Kapsali ◽

Petros Ganatsas

Keyword(s):

Tree Species ◽

Block Design ◽

Pinus Nigra ◽

Fertilization Rate ◽

Early Growth ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Northern Greece ◽

Randomized Block Design ◽

Below Ground ◽

High Fertilization

Pinus nigra is one of the most widely used tree species for reforestation within its geographical distribution, as well as being a potential substitute for other tree species in Central Europe under future climate scenarios. P. nigra is transplanted into the field as two-year or three-year old seedlings because of its relatively low growth rate in the nursery. This study investigated the effects of fertilization programs and shading on P. nigra seedlings, aiming to accelerate early growth, and thus to reduce the nursery rearing time. The experiment (a completely randomized block design) was conducted in an open-air nursery by sowing seeds from Grevena, Northern Greece, in Quick pots filled with peat and perlite in a 2:1 ratio. The seedlings were subjected to two levels of fertilization—5 and 10 g L−1 NPK (30-10-10)—and two shading levels: 50% and 70%. At the ends of the first and second nursery growing season, we recorded the seedlings’ above- and below-ground morphology and biomass data. The results show that the application of all of the treatments produced seedlings which met the targeted quality standards for outplanting. However, the combination of a high fertilization rate and low shading level resulted in seedlings of a higher morphological quality, which is often considered to be an indicator for a successful seedling establishment in the field.

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Predicted shifts of groundfish distribution in the Eastern Bering Sea under climate change, with implications for fish populations and fisheries management

ICES Journal of Marine Science ◽

10.1093/icesjms/fsaa215 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Christopher N Rooper ◽

Ivonne Ortiz ◽

Albert J Hermann ◽

Ned Laman ◽

Wei Cheng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Bering Sea ◽

Marine Species ◽

Species Distribution Modelling ◽

Fish Populations ◽

Trawl Survey ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Important Species ◽

Eastern Bering Sea ◽

Northern Latitudes ◽

Distribution Shifts

Abstract Climate-related distribution shifts for marine species are, in general, amplified in northern latitudes. The objective of this study was to predict future distributions of commercially important species in the eastern Bering Sea under six climate scenarios, by incorporating predictions of future oceanographic conditions. We used species distribution modelling to determine potential distribution changes in four time periods (2013–2017, 2030–2039, 2060–2069, and 2090-2099) relative to 1982–2012 for 16 marine fish and invertebrates. Most species were predicted to have significant shifts in the centre of gravity of the predicted abundance, the area occupied, and the proportion of the predicted abundance found in the standard bottom trawl survey area. On average the shifts were modest, averaging 35.2 km (ranging from 1 to 202 km). There were significant differences in the predicted trend for distribution metrics among climate scenarios, with the most extensive changes in distribution resulting from Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate scenarios. The variability in distributional shifts among years and climate scenarios was high, although the magnitudes were low. This study provides a basis for understanding where fish populations might expand or contract in future years. This will provide managers’ information that can help guide appropriate actions under warming conditions.

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