Public Debt, Inflation and the Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies

Author(s):  
Anne Lavigne ◽  
Philippe Waechter
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (36) ◽  
pp. 59-72
Author(s):  
Jumah Ahmad Alzyadat

This study aimed to analyze the effects of fiscal and monetary policies interactions on public debt in Jordan during (1970 – 2019). Using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) derived from VAR (Vector Auto regression), and examine dynamic interactions between economic variables over time, by Appling Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decomposition. The results indicated that the fiscal policy instruments affect public debt in two different directions, the expansion of government expenditure positively affect public debt, while tax revenues reduce indebtedness. The monetary policy instruments affect public debt in the same directions, as the results indicated that the central bank in controlling money supply and managing interest rate helps the fiscal authority in reducing the public debt in Jordan. The results confirm the strongest impact of government expenditure on public debt in Jordan. The study recommends the necessity of rationalizing government expenditures and combating tax evasion. In addition, more coordination between fiscal and monetary policies.


2021 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Alexis Drach

The ambition of this book is to explore the various dimensions of the transition from a state-led to a market-led financial system from the 1970s onwards. In the late 1970s and 1980s, the phrase ‘deregulation’ became a particularly popular term in regulatory spheres, but what kind of change exactly deregulation was? The nine chapters of the book show that if some rules were indeed revoked, particularly in certain countries, other regulations were introduced, particularly in the field of prudential supervision. The combination of an increased surveillance and of more liberal rules marked the end of the twentieth century and differentiated this period from the late- nineteenth-century laissez-faire approach. Rising public debt, new monetary policies, globalization, and weak economic growth were often the main factors underlying the deregulatory moves in the financial sector.


2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 137-151
Author(s):  
Allan Potofsky

It has been famously argued that Tom Paine was not much of an economic thinker. Indeed, in his published work, we see relatively scarce systematic commentary on the subject. But, as befitting his origins in a mercantile family, Paine as a young man had prepared for a career as an excise officer. He later fully participated in a broader Enlightenment conversation about the new world of credit, trade, commercial and monetary policies, among other fiscal issues of early globalization. In particular, Paine formulated a systematic critique of public debt as a compelling way to discuss political sovereignty, the social contract, and the true wealth of nations – among other issues. In 1796, in France, Paine published a critique of wartime funding of the British economy with the publication of The Decline and Fall of the English System of Finance inspired by the title of Gibbon’s The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (1776). Paine’s denunciation of the economic self-mutilation caused by British wartime expansionism focused on a reform by the Prime Minister, William Pitt the Younger, who partially privatized the public debt of Britain. The British pound sterling was henceforth sustained by mysterious private loans whose very terms were obscured from public opinion. This article argues that the pamphlet had many parallels to David Hume’s 1752 essay Of Public Debt which Hume revised after the Seven Years War with a radical critique of public debt. The Humean origins of many of Paine’s arguments are manifest in the corrupting nature of public debt tied to military expenditure. To Hume and Paine, gimmicky forms of state borrowing in times of war lead to the bankruptcy of expansionist absolutism and to the eventual “decline and fall” of belligerent empires.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 14-30
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo

Abstract The study seeks to empirically test the hypothesis that public debt has a significant influence on inflation in Zimbabwe, covering the period 1980-2020. The study was motivated by recent trends in public debt and domestic inflation in Zimbabwe, and the need to guide debt-inflation related policy. These latest trends have started to ring alarming bells, which raises questions on the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in bringing macroeconomic stability in the country. Applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure to cointegration and an error correction mechanism (ECM), expanded by incorporating structural breaks, the study finds evidence in support of positive and significant impact of public debt on inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe, particularly in the long run. Based on the findings, public debt dynamics matter for inflation process in Zimbabwe. That is, fiscal policy can be considered to be an important determinant of the effectiveness of monetary policy in Zimbabwe. Therefore, the government should be mindful of increases in public debt as this was found to be inflationary.


Federalism ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 169-187
Author(s):  
I. S. Bukina

The pandemic of a new coronavirus infection for the Russian economy was a double shock: against the background of the spread of COVID-19, oil prices fell sharply. This was a serious shock for the economy and budget revenues. However, it was the budget expenditures that played a major role in supporting output. In addition, monetary policy was expansionary. Thus, in the first half of 2020, a combination of stimulating fiscal and expansionary monetary policies was observed. This combination increased the demand for government bonds. During the periods of the next decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank, an increase in the yield of OFZ was observed. Despite the fact that the level of Russia’s debt burden is low, there are specific risks that limit the possibilities for increasing debt. These include possible sanctions, a weakening of the ruble, falling incomes of the households and a high probability of an increase in bankruptcies of those organizations that will not be able to survive the consequences of the introduction of restrictive measures. Given these risks, it is necessary to consider mechanisms to support the economy using debt instruments and quantitative easing policies.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-24
Author(s):  
Akingbade U. Aimola ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo

AbstractResearch background: Public debt arises mainly from debt-financed deficits. More and more countries are resorting to additional public indebtedness to raise additional financial resources to meet government funding needs, which are unattainable by the usual tax means. As a result, increasingly, government spending is rising faster than revenue is received, and the excess is financed mainly through domestic and external borrowings. Expensive borrowings by a government (in an environment of increasing interest rates) may be harmful to inflation and the macroeconomic stabilisation process. This trend is raising concerns among policymakers as it undermines macroeconomic stability, especially in developing economies with relatively weak and dependent monetary authorities in the formulation and implementation of monetary policies. Hence, the association between public debt and inflation is of importance in the inflationary process of an economy.Purpose: In this paper, theoretical and empirical literature on the link between public debt and inflation has been surveyed in detail. The focus of the paper was centred on the review of literature on the link between total public debt, external public debt, domestic public debt and inflation.Research methodology: This paper presents an extensive review of scholarly studies on the link between public debt and inflation based on their results. The paper analysed, synthesised, and critically evaluated previous studies on the relationship between public debt and inflation on both the theoretical and empirical fronts.Results: The literature reviewed revealed the association between public debt and inflation. The surveyed literature shows that the relationship between public debt and inflation varies from country to country, with either a positive or negative relationship. However, in the majority of the literature, the link between public debt and inflation tilts towards a positive relationship. This finding is more prominent in indebted countries with higher levels of public debt and a less-developed financial market. Although there is no consensus on the positive or negative relationship between public debt and inflation, the study found that a positive relationship between public debt and inflation tends to predominate among the studies reviewed.Novelty: The study provides an insight into the relationship between public debt and inflation based on a detailed review of literature on the subject in both developed and developing economies.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wellington Charles Lacerda Nobrega ◽  
Cássio da Nóbrega Besarria ◽  
Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano Aragón

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the existing relations between the management of public bonds on the dynamics of debt, term structure of interest rates and economic cycle, through a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE), which was estimated through Bayesian inference techniques using data from Brazil.Design/methodology/approachThe model developed was used to investigate the effects of the public debt average maturity management when the economy faces a monetary policy shock. For this, three management scenarios are evaluated, including Brazilian securities average term.FindingsContrary to what might be inferred from DSGE models that limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing only one-period bonds, a contractionary monetary policy shock does not necessarily cause public debt to increase significantly. Debt term structure plays a crucial role in this result since the government does not need to roll the debt over at higher costs when the debt term profile is longer, reducing the debt service costs and then the impact on the overall debt.Originality/valueDespite the relevance of this theme and its implications for the dynamics of the economy, there is still a gap to be filled in the literature when using DSGE models, since most part of the work that used this methodology limited the analysis of the debt term by imposing that government issues only one-period bonds. This paper differs from the others insofar as it promotes an investigation focused on the role played by debt maturity management on the performance of the contractionary monetary policy. This approach can generate a better understanding of debt management policy and its interaction with fiscal and monetary policies.


Author(s):  
Dr. Rajib Kumar Sanyal

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19’s) impact has gone far beyond its direct effect on morbidity and mortality. In addition to adversely impacting non-COVID health care utilization, the pandemic has resulted in a deep global economic contraction due to lockdown policies and declining demand and supply of goods and services. As a result, most countries are experiencing lower levels of gross domestic product (GDP), rising unemployment, higher levels of impoverishment, and increasing income inequality. Some countries are more vulnerable to the economic contagion resulting from COVID-19, including those implementing more stringent lockdowns and those that are more globally integrated due to their dependence on trade, tourism, and remittances. In addition, countries with pre-existing conditions of fiscal weakness due to higher dependence on external grant financing, low tax revenues, and large pre-crisis debt levels are struggling to implement countercyclical mitigative fiscal and monetary policies. In addition to declining economic activity, government revenues have declined, government borrowing is increasing, and public debt levels are projected to skyrocket globally.


2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 763-778
Author(s):  
Attiya Y. Javid ◽  
Umaima Arif ◽  
Abdul Sattar

There are two competing views of the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy and their effects on price stability for policy-maker’s point of view. In the classical view, in Ricardian regimes it is the demand for liquidity and its evolution over time that determines prices. In such a regime fiscal policy is passive, which implies that government bonds are not net wealth [Barro (1974)], and monetary policy works through the interest rate or another instrument to determine prices. In the opposite view which is more recent, a non-Ricardian regime will prevail whenever fiscal policy becomes active1 and does not accommodate or adjust primary surpluses to guarantee fiscal solvency. As a result, the Ricardian equivalence do not hold, and the increase in nominal public debt to finance persistent budget deficits is perceived by private agents as an increase in nominal wealth. In fiscal dominant regime the government’s fiscal policy becomes sustainable through debt deflation that is an increase in prices that wash away the real value of public debt and in turn the real value of financial wealth until demand equals supply and a new equilibrium is reached. In this regime prices are determined by fiscal policy, and inflation becomes a fiscal phenomenon. If, on the other hand, primary surpluses follow an arbitrary process, then the equilibrium path of prices is determined by the requirement known as fiscal solvency; that is, the price level has to jump to satisfy a present value budget constraint called non-Ricardian regime. The basic distinction between the two regimes is that in non-Ricardian regime fiscal policy plays the role where as in Ricardian regime monetary policy provides stability in prices. In FTPL, the results of fiscal and monetary policies depend on which policy has dominant characteristics. The consequences of policies differ depending on the active and passive characteristics of the policy and depending on the characteristics of the following policy. If the policy mix is such that monetary policy is active and fiscal policy is passive, fiscal policy accommodates monetary policies; these policies are called dominant monetary policy by Sargent and Wallace (1981) and Ricardian regime by Woodford (1994, 1995).


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