Vrancea Earthquakes: Tectonics, Hazard and Risk Mitigation

During the past decades, risk assessment experienced increasing interest in social science but also natural science and other disciplines. At the same time, risk reduction and mitigation gained in interest from local to global level due to the shift from reactive to proactive management. Hazard and risk assessment have been approached on different levels, nonetheless, they are lacking elements such as cross-border assessment or the integration of an ecological risk assessment. One of the objectives of the H2020 Operandum project is to provide an automated science-based assessment of risk for the social-ecological system and further of the applicability and performance of Nature-based Solutions (NBS) for risk mitigation of hydro-meteorological hazards.Within this project, an interactive webGIS analytical engine and an NBS catalogue are being developed as part of the Geospatial Information Knowledge Platform (GeoIKP). The analytical engine will encompass open Europe-wide hazard maps and link them with local high-resolution information from public and innovative data sources (e.g. Facebook). These two geo-tools are combined into a recommendation engine - NBS toolkit - trained on existing NBS. Using a holistic approach, the NBS toolkit aims at providing risk assessment and advanced recommendations on NBS usage for mitigation. For this approach, the NBS toolkit incorporates hazard and risk assessment in space and time, cost-benefit analysis, and additionally main drivers and constraints for NBS implementations as well as their geographical transferability, replicability and performance/effectiveness.&#160;This contribution will offer an insight into the concept and development of the NBS toolkit. Primarily, it will focus on the added value of the NBS toolkit for future nature-based implementation, risk mitigation management and decision-making at all levels. Challenges and current limitations of real-time risk assessment will also be discussed, with a focus on their implications on NBS monitoring and effectiveness.

Download Full-text

Development of a global seismic risk model

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1177/8755293019899953 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽

pp. 372-394 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Vitor Silva ◽

Desmond Amo-Oduro ◽

Alejandro Calderon ◽

Catarina Costa ◽

Jamal Dabbeek ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Risk Model ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Industrial Buildings ◽

Earthquake Model ◽

Hazard And Risk ◽

Vulnerability Functions ◽

Regional Programs

Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures.

Download Full-text

Regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and risk in the Pamir (Tajikistan) with GRASS GIS

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-1-1689-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 1689-1747

Author(s):

F. E. Gruber ◽

M. Mergili

Keyword(s):

Risk Mitigation ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

High Mountain ◽

Scale Analysis ◽

Model Framework ◽

Rock Face ◽

Grass Gis ◽

Hazard And Risk

Abstract. We present a model framework for the regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and -risk, implemented with the Open Source software package GRASS GIS. This framework is applied to a 98 300 km2 study area centred in the Pamir (Tajikistan). It includes (i) rock slides, (ii) ice avalanches, (iii) periglacial debris flows, and (iv) lake outburst floods. First, a hazard indication score is assigned to each relevant object (steep rock face, glacier or periglacial slope, lake). This score depends on the susceptibility and on the expected event magnitude. Second, the possible travel distances, impact areas and, consequently, impact hazard indication scores for all types of processes are computed using empirical relationships. These scores are finally superimposed with an exposure score derived from the type of land use, resulting in a raster map of risk indication scores finally discretized at the community level. The analysis results are presented and discussed at different spatial scales. The major outcome of the study, a set of comprehensive regional-scale hazard and risk indication maps, shall represent an objective basis for the prioritization of target communities for further research and risk mitigation measures.

Download Full-text

Key elements to assess proposals for rockfall risk mitigation in the context of a technical and economic feasibility project – the experience of two alpine italian regions

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5753 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Claudia Strada ◽

Davide Bertolo ◽

Volkmar Mair ◽

Marco Paganone

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Project Managers ◽

Residual Risk ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Risk Level ◽

Acceptable Risk ◽

Italian Regions ◽

Geological Conditions ◽

Hazard And Risk

The Valle d'Aosta&#160;Region and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano&#160;territories include&#160;the highest mountain areas of Italy,&#160;where most of the communication&#160;infrastructures or strategic activities are&#160;totally or in part partially&#160;exposed&#160;to the&#160;rockfall&#160;hazards.&#160;&#160;For this&#160;reason,&#160;the two administrations&#160;have&#160;established&#160;an operational&#160;cooperation in order&#160;to&#160;compare their procedures and to define&#160;the&#160;criteria&#160;and best practices to prioritize and project the&#160;mitigation the rockfall mitigation measures.&#160;The result achieved by the work group have inspired a new incoming version of the Italian technical standard UNI 11211 &#8220;Rockfall protective measures&#8221;.&#160;&#160;&#160;As&#160;a&#160;part of the&#160;rockfall risk&#160;assessment&#160;of the&#160;designing&#160;the&#160;mitigation measures, it is necessary to&#160;assess the actual&#160;effectiveness&#160;of the alternative&#160;mitigation options which have been identified.&#8239;&#160;The choice whether to mitigate the event intensity or the expected damage, with either&#160;structural or non-structural measures,&#160;will usually achieve a risk mitigation level, associated to a complimentary residual risk.&#160;Therefore, the project management has to evaluate the degree of hazard and risk mitigation for any given solution. The acceptability of the residual risk and its possible mitigation through organizational measures are to be evaluated as well. A long-term cost/benefit analysis has to be performed, taking also into account the tolerability over time of the handling costs.&#160;The first milestone in the decisional process the definition of the acceptable risk level. As a matter of fact, which is the key criterion supporting the decision to undertake cost-effective investments in mitigation works. For that reason, a preliminary analysis of the&#160;in-situ&#160;geological conditions should be as complete and detailed as possible. Project managers have to be aware that the zero-option has to be taken in to&#160;account as well, in the case the risk level would not be acceptable.&#160;Moreover, it has to be taken into account that the risk evaluation&#160;is&#160;always site-specific, because&#160;the rockfall&#160;mitigation projects have to be based on a detailed geological reference model. Local changes in geological, hydrogeological, morphological and structural conditions, vegetation, vulnerability and exposure of the objects at risk&#160;may lead to different hazard and risk conditions even&#160;at a local scale. Therefore, a risk assessment analysis is consistent to a single project and can&#8217;t be directly upscaled to implement, for instance,&#160;a municipal land management plan.&#160;&#160;&#160;Another key point in the decision-making process&#160;is the expected damage assessment, which has to include not only the direct damages (e.g.: loss of human lives) but also the indirect damages and their economic and social impacts. As a consequence, in assessing the acceptable risk&#160;both the probability of direct and indirect damage and the economic and social benefits derived from its acceptance have to be weighted.&#160;The final result has led to guidelines based on QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) method and defining three risk levels:&#160;Acceptable, ALARP (As Low&#160;As&#160;Reasonably Practicable) and Unacceptable, providing to the project managers a rational&#160;and objective framework to manage rockfall hazards in Italy.&#160;

Download Full-text

An Overview of GIS-Based Assessment and Mapping of Mining-Induced Subsidence

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app10217845 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (21) ◽

pp. 7845

Author(s):

Jangwon Suh

Keyword(s):

Engineering Geology ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Mining Subsidence ◽

Data Uncertainty ◽

Future Perspectives ◽

Predictive Mapping ◽

Mining Areas ◽

Analytic Methods ◽

Hazard And Risk

This article reviews numerous published studies on geographic information system (GIS)-based assessment and mapping of mining-induced subsidence. The various types of mine subsidence maps were first classified into susceptibility, hazard, and risk maps according to the various types of the engineering geology maps. Subsequently, the mapping studies were also reclassified into several groups according to the analytic methods used in the correlation derivation or elements of the risk of interest. Data uncertainty, analytic methods and techniques, and usability of the prediction map were considered in the discussion of the limitations and future perspectives of mining subsidence zonation studies. Because GIS can process geospatial data in relation to mining subsidence, the application and feasibility of exploiting GIS-assisted geospatial predictive mapping may be expanded further. GIS-based subsidence predictive maps are helpful for both engineers and for planners responsible for the design and implementation of risk mitigation and management strategies in mining areas.

Download Full-text

Earthquake hazard and risk mitigation

Contemporary Physics ◽

10.1080/00107518108231535 ◽

1981 ◽

Vol 22 (3) ◽

pp. 335-347 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

D. J. Blutndell

Keyword(s):

Risk Mitigation ◽

Earthquake Hazard ◽

Hazard And Risk

Download Full-text

Managing rockfall risk through baseline monitoring of precursors using a terrestrial laser scanner

Canadian Geotechnical Journal ◽

10.1139/cgj-2016-0178 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 54 (7) ◽

pp. 953-967 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Ryan Kromer ◽

Matt Lato ◽

D. Jean Hutchinson ◽

Dave Gauthier ◽

Tom Edwards

Keyword(s):

Risk Mitigation ◽

Laser Scanner ◽

Three Dimensions ◽

Terrestrial Laser Scanner ◽

Rockfall Hazard ◽

Transportation Corridor ◽

Transportation Corridors ◽

Hazard And Risk ◽

Potential Failure ◽

Mechanism Of Failure

Rockfalls represent significant risks to safe and efficient use of transportation corridors. In this paper, we address the management of rockfall risk through baseline remote monitoring of susceptible slopes (every 2–4 months) along a transportation corridor along the Fraser River valley in western Canada using a terrestrial laser scanner and supporting remote sensing technologies. This includes identifying potential rockfall source zones based on incipient signs of failure, tracking kinematics in three dimensions to better understand the mechanism of failure, estimating potential failure volumes based on bounding joint structure, and transmitting this information to the railway operator for an assessment of risk. We demonstrate our approach for one case along the line where we identified several potential failures ranging in volume from 48 to 4200 m3. Our projections of the location of failures were successful, in that volume projections were within 10%–55%, and the anticipated kinematics and failure mechanism were consistent with the assessment of post-failure rockfall scar geometries. Accurate volume and kinematics estimates are important for the assessment of hazard and risk as well as the planning of risk mitigation options. In general, this approach can be used to better manage risk from rockfall hazard in communities, transportation corridors, or other infrastructure.

Download Full-text

Debris flood hazard documentation and mitigation on the Tilcara alluvial fan (Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy province, North-West Argentina)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-12-1873-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1873-1882 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

G. Marcato ◽

G. Bossi ◽

F. Rivelli ◽

L. Borgatti

Keyword(s):

Risk Mitigation ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Rio Grande ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Alluvial Fan ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

North West ◽

Hazard And Risk ◽

Debris Flood

Abstract. For some decades, mass wasting processes such as landslides and debris floods have been threatening villages and transportation routes in the Rio Grande Valley, named Quebrada de Humauhuaca. One of the most significant examples is the urban area of Tilcara, built on a large alluvial fan. In recent years, debris flood phenomena have been triggered in the tributary valley of the Huasamayo Stream and reached the alluvial fan on a decadal basis. In view of proper development of the area, hazard and risk assessment together with risk mitigation strategies are of paramount importance. The need is urgent also because the Quebrada de Humahuaca was recently included in the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage. Therefore, the growing tourism industry may lead to uncontrolled exploitation and urbanization of the valley, with a consequent increase of the vulnerability of the elements exposed to risk. In this context, structural and non structural mitigation measures not only have to be based on the understanding of natural processes, but also have to consider environmental and sociological factors that could hinder the effectiveness of the countermeasure works. The hydrogeological processes are described with reference to present-day hazard and risk conditions. Considering the socio-economic context, some possible interventions are outlined, which encompass budget constraints and local practices. One viable solution would be to build a protecting dam upstream of the fan apex and an artificial channel, in order to divert the floodwaters in a gully that would then convey water and sediments into the Rio Grande, some kilometers downstream of Tilcara. The proposed remedial measures should employ easily available and relatively cheap technologies and local workers, incorporating low environmental and visual impacts issues, in order to ensure both the future conservation of the site and its safe exploitation for inhabitants and tourists.

Download Full-text

Towards Large-area Dynamic Modeling of Landslides Hazard and Risk with Spatiotemporal Point Processes

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16029 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Massimiliano Pittore ◽

Ugur Oezturk ◽

Stefan Steger

Keyword(s):

Point Processes ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Large Area ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Mountainous Regions ◽

Mitigation And Adaptation ◽

Geostatistical Approach ◽

Highly Sensitive ◽

Landslide Processes ◽

Hazard And Risk

Landslides are one of the most relevant natural threat in mountainous regions, resulting each year in billion of direct and indirect losses incurred worldwide. Furthermore, it is widely acknowledged that these processes are both strongly dependent on local geomorphological, geological and environmental features and highly sensitive to weather- and climate-related events such as intense precipitation or snowmelt. However, most regional landslides hazard and risk models to date struggle capturing this complex interplay of quasi-static and dynamic drivers and triggering factors, hence severely hampering their operational use for implementing timely risk mitigation and adaptation measures.We aim to introduce a sound and relatively straightforward geostatistical approach to landslides hazard and risk modelling based on heterogeneous spatiotemporal point processes, which has potential for the assimilation of empirical observations from different sources (including, e.g., remote sensing) for iterative calibration and free from thresholds of continuous monitoring parameters. Such approach could be efficiently used to obtain large-area, near-real time stochastic simulation of landslide processes as input to further risk analysis and management activities by civil protection authorities and policy planners. Perspectives and limitations of the proposed approach stemming from a preliminary exemplification in a case study in Central Asia will be outlined and discussed.

Download Full-text