Development of a global seismic risk model

Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These efforts led to the development of a repository of probabilistic seismic hazard models, a global exposure dataset comprising structural and occupancy information regarding the residential, commercial and industrial buildings, and a comprehensive set of fragility and vulnerability functions for the most common building classes. These components were used to estimate probabilistic earthquake risk globally using the OpenQuake-engine, an open-source software for seismic hazard and risk analysis. This model allows estimating a number of risk metrics such as annualized average losses or aggregated losses for particular return periods, which are fundamental to the development and implementation of earthquake risk mitigation measures.

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Probabilistic seismic risk assessment of India

Earthquake Spectra ◽

10.1177/8755293020957374 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (1_suppl) ◽

pp. 345-371

Author(s):

Anirudh Rao ◽

Debashish Dutta ◽

Pratim Kalita ◽

Nick Ackerley ◽

Vitor Silva ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Seismic Risk ◽

Risk Model ◽

Building Design ◽

Design Guidelines ◽

Exposure Model ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Exceedance Probability ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Earthquake Insurance

This study presents a comprehensive open probabilistic seismic risk model for India. The proposed model comprises a nationwide residential and non-residential building exposure model, a selection of analytical seismic vulnerability functions tailored for Indian building classes, and the open implementation of an existing probabilistic seismic hazard model for India. The vulnerability of the building exposure is combined with the seismic hazard using the stochastic (Monte Carlo) event-based calculator of the OpenQuake engine to estimate probabilistic seismic risk metrics such as average annual economic losses and the exceedance probability curves at the national, state, district, and subdistrict levels. The risk model and the underlying datasets, along with the risk metrics calculated at different scales, are intended to be used as tools to quantitatively assess the earthquake risk across India and also compare with other countries to develop risk-informed building design guidelines, for more careful land-use planning, to optimize earthquake insurance pricing, and to enhance general earthquake risk awareness and preparedness.

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Resource Allocation Model Toward Seismic Water Pipeline Risk Mitigation Measures

Volume 8: Seismic Engineering ◽

10.1115/pvp2019-93057 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

Elnaz Peyghaleh ◽

Tarek Alkhrdaji

Keyword(s):

Resource Allocation ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Seismic Hazard ◽

Seismic Risk ◽

Distribution Systems ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Seismic Risk Analysis ◽

Allocation Model ◽

Proposed Model

Abstract History of earthquake’s damages have illustrated the high vulnerability and risks associated with failure of water transfer and distribution systems. Adequate mitigation plans to reduce such seismic risks are required for sustainable development. The first step in developing a mitigation plan is prioritizing the limited available budget to address the most critical mitigation measures. This paper presents an optimization model that can be utilized for financial resource allocation towards earthquake risk mitigation measures for water pipelines. It presents a framework that can be used by decision-makers (authorities, stockholders, owners and contractors) to structure budget allocation strategy for seismic risk mitigation measures such as repair, retrofit, and/or replacement of steel and concrete pipelines. A stochastic model is presented to establish optimal mitigation measures based on minimizing repair and retrofit costs, post-earthquake replacement costs, and especially earthquake-induced large losses. To consider the earthquake induced loss on pipelines, the indirect loss due to water shortage and business interruption in the industries which needs water is also considered. The model is applied to a pilot area to demonstrate the practical application aspects of the proposed model. Pipeline exposure database, built environment occupancy type, pipeline vulnerability functions, and regional seismic hazard characteristics are used to calculate a probabilistic seismic risk for the pilot area. The Global Earthquake Model’s (GEM) OpenQuake software is used to run various seismic risk analysis. Event-based seismic hazard and risk analyses are used to develop the hazard curves and maps in terms of peak ground velocity (PGV) for the study area. The results of this study show the variation of seismic losses and mitigation costs for pipelines located within the study area based on their location and the types of repair. Performing seismic risk analysis analyses using the proposed model provides a valuable tool for determining the risk associated with a network of pipelines in a region, and the costs of repair based on acceptable risk level. It can be used for decision making and to establish type and budgets for most critical repairs for a specific region.

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Regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and risk in the Pamir (Tajikistan) with GRASS GIS

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/nhessd-1-1689-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 1 (2) ◽

pp. 1689-1747

Author(s):

F. E. Gruber ◽

M. Mergili

Keyword(s):

Risk Mitigation ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

High Mountain ◽

Scale Analysis ◽

Model Framework ◽

Rock Face ◽

Grass Gis ◽

Hazard And Risk

Abstract. We present a model framework for the regional-scale analysis of high-mountain multi-hazard and -risk, implemented with the Open Source software package GRASS GIS. This framework is applied to a 98 300 km2 study area centred in the Pamir (Tajikistan). It includes (i) rock slides, (ii) ice avalanches, (iii) periglacial debris flows, and (iv) lake outburst floods. First, a hazard indication score is assigned to each relevant object (steep rock face, glacier or periglacial slope, lake). This score depends on the susceptibility and on the expected event magnitude. Second, the possible travel distances, impact areas and, consequently, impact hazard indication scores for all types of processes are computed using empirical relationships. These scores are finally superimposed with an exposure score derived from the type of land use, resulting in a raster map of risk indication scores finally discretized at the community level. The analysis results are presented and discussed at different spatial scales. The major outcome of the study, a set of comprehensive regional-scale hazard and risk indication maps, shall represent an objective basis for the prioritization of target communities for further research and risk mitigation measures.

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Key elements to assess proposals for rockfall risk mitigation in the context of a technical and economic feasibility project – the experience of two alpine italian regions

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5753 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Claudia Strada ◽

Davide Bertolo ◽

Volkmar Mair ◽

Marco Paganone

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Project Managers ◽

Residual Risk ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Risk Level ◽

Acceptable Risk ◽

Italian Regions ◽

Geological Conditions ◽

Hazard And Risk

The Valle d'Aosta&#160;Region and the Autonomous Province of Bolzano&#160;territories include&#160;the highest mountain areas of Italy,&#160;where most of the communication&#160;infrastructures or strategic activities are&#160;totally or in part partially&#160;exposed&#160;to the&#160;rockfall&#160;hazards.&#160;&#160;For this&#160;reason,&#160;the two administrations&#160;have&#160;established&#160;an operational&#160;cooperation in order&#160;to&#160;compare their procedures and to define&#160;the&#160;criteria&#160;and best practices to prioritize and project the&#160;mitigation the rockfall mitigation measures.&#160;The result achieved by the work group have inspired a new incoming version of the Italian technical standard UNI 11211 &#8220;Rockfall protective measures&#8221;.&#160;&#160;&#160;As&#160;a&#160;part of the&#160;rockfall risk&#160;assessment&#160;of the&#160;designing&#160;the&#160;mitigation measures, it is necessary to&#160;assess the actual&#160;effectiveness&#160;of the alternative&#160;mitigation options which have been identified.&#8239;&#160;The choice whether to mitigate the event intensity or the expected damage, with either&#160;structural or non-structural measures,&#160;will usually achieve a risk mitigation level, associated to a complimentary residual risk.&#160;Therefore, the project management has to evaluate the degree of hazard and risk mitigation for any given solution. The acceptability of the residual risk and its possible mitigation through organizational measures are to be evaluated as well. A long-term cost/benefit analysis has to be performed, taking also into account the tolerability over time of the handling costs.&#160;The first milestone in the decisional process the definition of the acceptable risk level. As a matter of fact, which is the key criterion supporting the decision to undertake cost-effective investments in mitigation works. For that reason, a preliminary analysis of the&#160;in-situ&#160;geological conditions should be as complete and detailed as possible. Project managers have to be aware that the zero-option has to be taken in to&#160;account as well, in the case the risk level would not be acceptable.&#160;Moreover, it has to be taken into account that the risk evaluation&#160;is&#160;always site-specific, because&#160;the rockfall&#160;mitigation projects have to be based on a detailed geological reference model. Local changes in geological, hydrogeological, morphological and structural conditions, vegetation, vulnerability and exposure of the objects at risk&#160;may lead to different hazard and risk conditions even&#160;at a local scale. Therefore, a risk assessment analysis is consistent to a single project and can&#8217;t be directly upscaled to implement, for instance,&#160;a municipal land management plan.&#160;&#160;&#160;Another key point in the decision-making process&#160;is the expected damage assessment, which has to include not only the direct damages (e.g.: loss of human lives) but also the indirect damages and their economic and social impacts. As a consequence, in assessing the acceptable risk&#160;both the probability of direct and indirect damage and the economic and social benefits derived from its acceptance have to be weighted.&#160;The final result has led to guidelines based on QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment) method and defining three risk levels:&#160;Acceptable, ALARP (As Low&#160;As&#160;Reasonably Practicable) and Unacceptable, providing to the project managers a rational&#160;and objective framework to manage rockfall hazards in Italy.&#160;

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FEASIBILITY AND PROBLEMS OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER REDUCTION MEASURES BASED ON ACTIVE FAULT DATA

Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami ◽

10.1142/s1793431111001091 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 05 (01) ◽

pp. 19-29

Author(s):

TERUMOTO KIYOMINE ◽

NAKABAYASHI ITSUKI

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Risk Reduction ◽

Land Use Planning ◽

Questionnaire Survey ◽

Active Fault ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Disaster Reduction ◽

Risk Reduction Measures

Active fault data have been more widely and closely investigated and extensive data have also been collected. However, there are only a few examples related to land use planning for disaster reduction measures based on active fault data. The purpose of this study is (1) to categorize the disaster reduction measures, and (2) to examine problems and important factors for promoting disaster reduction measures based on a questionnaire survey. The cases of the measures that are able to be distinguished included building restriction, nonconstruction restriction, and risk communication. The questionnaire survey was conducted with the residents of Yokosuka city. The results of analyses showed that disaster reduction measures based on active fault data tended to be approximately accepted. Other results indicated that as the public's understanding related to earthquake risk and risk mitigation measures increases, the awareness of risk reduction measures based on active fault data is promoted, and the objectives of disaster reduction measures would be realized.

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STAKEHOLDERS' PRACTICES: A CHALLENGE TO EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION DECISIONS

International Journal of Strategic Property Management ◽

10.3846/1648715x.2015.1101029 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 19 (4) ◽

pp. 395-408 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Temitope EGBELAKIN ◽

Suzanne WILKINSON ◽

Regan POTANGAROA ◽

James ROTIMI

Keyword(s):

Quantitative Methods ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Active Regions ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Property Market ◽

Earthquake Insurance ◽

Property Owners ◽

Risk Preparedness ◽

Earthquake Risk Mitigation

Enhancing building owners’ earthquake risk preparedness has been a major challenge in many seismically active regions. Many property owners are found unwilling to adopt adequate risk mitigation measures in their earthquake-prone buildings, despite the availability of various technical design solutions and the enactment of intervening legislative frameworks necessary to facilitate successful earthquake risk preparedness. This paper examined the rationale behind building owners’ unwillingness to adopt adequate mitigation measures with a view to improve current stakeholders’ practices in earthquake risk mitigation. Using a mixed-method approach, comprising both qualitative and quantitative methods, an examination of the decision-making process and different stakeholders involved in earthquake risk mitigation and the property market, provided insights into the causal agents and stakeholder practices that pose challenges to property owners’ mitigation decisions. Stake-holder practices acting as impediments revealed are property valuation assessment of retrofitted and non-retrofitted EPBs, lack of demand for improved performance in older buildings, high earthquake insurance policy premiums and deductibles, and lack of a risk assessment information system. An in-depth understanding of these challenges highlights the need for a holistic approach that should incorporate market-based incentives necessary for successful earthquake preparedness by building owners, and for designing effective strategies for improving earthquake risk mitigation.

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Economic impediments to successful seismic retrofitting decisions

Structural Survey ◽

10.1108/ss-01-2014-0002 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 32 (5) ◽

pp. 449-466 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

Temitope Egbelakin ◽

Suzanne Wilkinson ◽

Jason Ingham

Keyword(s):

Financial Incentives ◽

Local Governments ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Seismic Retrofitting ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Property Market ◽

Content Type ◽

Property Owners ◽

Earthquake Risk Mitigation

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine why building owners are often reluctant to adopt adequate mitigation measures despite the vulnerability of their buildings to earthquake disasters, by exploring the economic-related barriers to earthquake mitigation decisions. Design/methodology/approach – A case study research method was adopted and interviews chosen as the method of data collection. Findings – Critical economic-related impediments that inhibited seismic retrofitting of earthquake-prone buildings were revealed in this study. Economic-related barriers identified include perception about financial involvement in retrofitting, property market conditions, high insurance premiums and deductibles, and the high cost of retrofitting. The availability of financial incentives such as low interest loans, tax deductibles, the implementation of a risk-based insurance premium scale and promoting increased knowledge and awareness of seismic risks and mitigation measures in the property market place are likely to address the economic-related challenges faced by property owners when undertaking seismic retrofitting projects. The provision of financial incentives specifically for seismic retrofitting should be introduced in policy-implementation programme tailored to local governments’ level of risks exposure and available resources. Practical implications – The recommendations provided in this study suggest strategies and answers to questions aimed at understanding the types of incentives that city councils and environmental hazard managers should focus on in their attempt to ensure that property owners actively participate in earthquake risk mitigation. Originality/value – This paper adopts a holistic perspective for investigating earthquake risk mitigation by examining the opinions of the different stakeholders involved in seismic retrofit decisions.

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Debris flood hazard documentation and mitigation on the Tilcara alluvial fan (Quebrada de Humahuaca, Jujuy province, North-West Argentina)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-12-1873-2012 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1873-1882 ◽

Cited By ~ 8

Author(s):

G. Marcato ◽

G. Bossi ◽

F. Rivelli ◽

L. Borgatti

Keyword(s):

Risk Mitigation ◽

Flood Hazard ◽

Rio Grande ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Alluvial Fan ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

North West ◽

Hazard And Risk ◽

Debris Flood

Abstract. For some decades, mass wasting processes such as landslides and debris floods have been threatening villages and transportation routes in the Rio Grande Valley, named Quebrada de Humauhuaca. One of the most significant examples is the urban area of Tilcara, built on a large alluvial fan. In recent years, debris flood phenomena have been triggered in the tributary valley of the Huasamayo Stream and reached the alluvial fan on a decadal basis. In view of proper development of the area, hazard and risk assessment together with risk mitigation strategies are of paramount importance. The need is urgent also because the Quebrada de Humahuaca was recently included in the UNESCO World Cultural Heritage. Therefore, the growing tourism industry may lead to uncontrolled exploitation and urbanization of the valley, with a consequent increase of the vulnerability of the elements exposed to risk. In this context, structural and non structural mitigation measures not only have to be based on the understanding of natural processes, but also have to consider environmental and sociological factors that could hinder the effectiveness of the countermeasure works. The hydrogeological processes are described with reference to present-day hazard and risk conditions. Considering the socio-economic context, some possible interventions are outlined, which encompass budget constraints and local practices. One viable solution would be to build a protecting dam upstream of the fan apex and an artificial channel, in order to divert the floodwaters in a gully that would then convey water and sediments into the Rio Grande, some kilometers downstream of Tilcara. The proposed remedial measures should employ easily available and relatively cheap technologies and local workers, incorporating low environmental and visual impacts issues, in order to ensure both the future conservation of the site and its safe exploitation for inhabitants and tourists.

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Integrated framework for enhancing earthquake risk mitigationn decisions

International Journal of Construction Supply Chain Management ◽

10.14424/ijcscm502015-34-51 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 34-51

Author(s):

Temitope Egbelakin ◽

◽

Suzanne Wilkinson ◽

Jason Ingham ◽

◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Mitigation ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Cultural Economic ◽

Seismic Rehabilitation ◽

The Social ◽

Property Owners ◽

Protective Behaviours ◽

Seismic Mitigation

The increasing scale of losses from earthquake disasters has reinforced the need for property owners to become proactive in seismic risk reduction programs. However, despite advancement in seismic design methods and legislative frameworks, building owners are found unwilling or lack motivation to adopt adequate mitigation measures that will reduce their vulnerability to earthquake disasters. Various theories and empirical findings have been used to explain the adoption of protective behaviours including seismic mitigation decisions, but their application has been inadequate to enhance building owners’ protective decisions. A holistic framework that incorporates the motivational orientations of decision-making, coupled with the social, cultural, economic, regulatory, institutional and political realms of earthquake risk mitigation to enhance building owners’ decisions to voluntarily implement adequate mitigation measures, is proposed. This framework attempts to address any multi-disciplinary barriers that exist in earthquake disaster management, by ensuring that stakeholders involved in seismic mitigation decisions work together to foster seismic rehabilitation of EPBs, as well as illuminate strategies that will initiate, promote and sustain the adoption of long-term earthquake mitigation.

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When color theory meets seismology: Principled visualization design for seismic hazard maps

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8308 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Max Schneider ◽

Fabrice Cotton

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Earthquake Risk ◽

Hazard Maps ◽

Seismic Hazard Maps ◽

Communication Goals ◽

Map Design ◽

Hazard Estimate ◽

Seismic Hazard Map

Probabilistic seismic hazard estimates are a key ingredient of earthquake risk mitigation strategies and are usually communicated through seismic hazard maps. Though evidence exists that visual design properties are key for effective communication using such maps, few authors describe their approach in visualizing seismic hazard. Current maps use colors, legends and data classification schemes which are suboptimal, from the visualization perspective. As such, they have the danger of miscommunicating seismic hazard. We present a set of principles regarding color choice, legend design, and classification of the continuous hazard estimate for categorical mapping. These principles are based on (1) communication goals for the seismic hazard phenomenon, (2) empirically-validated recommendations from the visualization literature and (3) other best practices in map design. We discuss the process of redesigning the German seismic hazard map using these principles. A set of prototype maps adhering to these principles are presented. We also describe ongoing efforts to test the redesigned maps, as well as how to use them to further communicate the uncertainty around probabilistic hazard estimates.

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