scholarly journals Mobility-based real-time economic monitoring amid the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Spelta ◽  
Paolo Pagnottoni
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Substitution Effect ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The Real

AbstractMobility restrictions have been identified as key non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit the spread of the SARS-COV-2 epidemics. However, these interventions present significant drawbacks to the social fabric and negative outcomes for the real economy. In this paper we propose a real-time monitoring framework for tracking the economic consequences of various forms of mobility reductions involving European countries. We adopt a granular representation of mobility patterns during both the first and second waves of SARS-COV-2 in Italy, Germany, France and Spain to provide an analytical characterization of the rate of losses of industrial production by means of a nowcasting methodology. Our approach exploits the information encoded in massive datasets of human mobility provided by Facebook and Google, which are published at higher frequencies than the target economic variables, in order to obtain an early estimate before the official data becomes available. Our results show, in first place, the ability of mobility-related policies to induce a contraction of mobility patterns across jurisdictions. Besides this contraction, we observe a substitution effect which increases mobility within jurisdictions. Secondly, we show how industrial production strictly follows the dynamics of population commuting patterns and of human mobility trends, which thus provide information on the day-by-day variations in countries’ economic activities. Our work, besides shedding light on how policy interventions targeted to induce a mobility contraction impact the real economy, constitutes a practical toolbox for helping governments to design appropriate and balanced policy actions aimed at containing the SARS-COV-2 spread, while mitigating the detrimental effect on the economy. Our study reveals how complex mobility patterns can have unequal consequences to economic losses across countries and call for a more tailored implementation of restrictions to balance the containment of contagion with the need to sustain economic activities.

Methodological approaches to assessing the digitalization scale in types of economic activity in the region and the potential of digital technologies for the real economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 1519-1541
Author(s):  
Vitalii V. PECHATKIN ◽  
Liliya M. VIL'DANOVA
Keyword(s):  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Digital Transformation ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The Real ◽  
Industrial Enterprises ◽  
Methodological Approaches

Subject. As digital technologies spread across all industries, active processes of digital transformation need to be managed both nationally and regionally. Assessing the extent of digitalization across types of economic activities is the key issue for setting up the socio-economic development strategy of the region and evaluating its efficiency. Objectives. The study is aimed to formulate and test methodological approaches to assessing the digitalization in types of economic activities and the potential of digital technologies for the real economy. Methods. The study relies upon the dialectical method, systems approach, questionnaires, expert approach, interpretation of empirical facts through tables, etc. Results. We devised a methodological approaches to assessing the extent of digitalization in types of economic activities across regions. The approach combines the quantification and evaluation of the process and helps determine the extent of local digital transformation at the regional level. We devised and tested the methodological approach to rating digital technologies, which have the high potential for raising the competitiveness and resilience to competition of the industrial sector in the Russian regions. As opposed to the existing approaches, the approach accounts for the current scale of digital technologies in the national economy, the potential for growth in the demand and supply in the domestic and foreign markets, and the potential for import substitution with respect to foreign technologies and products. Conclusions and Relevance. What makes the proposed methodological approaches more preferable is that they help assess not only the extent of digitalization in types of economic activities and the predominance of certain types in industrial enterprises, but also determine their potential for import substitution in terms of digital security.

scholarly journals Genetic Diversity of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus and Evaluation of Three One-Step Real-Time RT-PCR Assays in Korea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Go-Eun Shin ◽  
Ji-Young Park ◽  
Kyoung-Ki Lee ◽  
Mi-Kyeong Ko ◽  
Bok-Kyung Ku ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Amino Acid ◽  
Sequence Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Respiratory Syndrome Virus ◽  
Nucleotide Sequence Analysis ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
The Real ◽  
One Step ◽  
Pcr Assays

Abstract Background Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) has caused huge economic losses in the global swine industry. Frequent genetic variations in this virus cause difficulties in controlling and accurately diagnosing PRRSV. Methods In this study, we investigated the genetic characteristics of PRRSV-1 and PRRSV-2 circulating in Korea from January 2018 to September 2021 and evaluated three one-step real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) assays. Results A total of 129 lung samples were collected, consisting of 47 samples for PRRSV-1, 62 samples for PRRSV-2, and 20 PRRSV-negative samples. Nucleotide sequence analysis of open reading frames (ORFs) 5, ORF6, and ORF7 genes from PRRSV samples showed that PRRSV-1 belonged to subgroup A (43/47, 91.49%) and subgroup C (4/47, 8.51%), whereas PRRSV-2 was classified as lineage 1 (25/62, 40.32%), Korean lineage (Kor) C (13/62, 20.97%), Kor B (10/62, 16.13%), lineage 5 (9/62, 14.52%), and Kor A (5/62, 8.06%). Amino acid sequence analysis showed that the neutralizing epitope and T cell epitope of PRRSV-1, and the decoy epitope region and hypervariable regions of PRRSV-2 had evolved under positive selection pressure. In particular, the key amino acid substitutions were found at positions 102 and 104 of glycoprotein 5 (GP5) in some PRRSV-2, and at positions 10 and 70 of membrane protein (M) in most PRRSV-2. In addition, one-step real-time RT-PCR assays, comprising two commercial tests and one test recommended by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), were evaluated. Conclusion The results revealed that two of the real-time RT-PCR assays had high sensitivities and specificities, whereas the real-time RT-PCR assay of the OIE had low sensitivity due to mismatches between nucleotides of Korean PRRSVs and forward primers. In this study, we genetically characterized recent PRRSV occurrences and evaluated three one-step real-time RT-PCR assays used in Korea.

scholarly journals The "Great Lockdown": Inactive Workers and Mortality by Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola Borri ◽  
Francesco Drago ◽  
Chiara Santantonio ◽  
Francesco Sobbrio
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Point Reduction ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Difference

In response to the Covid-19 outbreak, among other previous ``non-pharmaceutical interventions'', on March 22, 2020 the Italian Government imposed an economic lockdown and ordered the closing of all non-essential economic activities. This paper estimates the causal effect of this measure on mortality by Covid-19 and on mobility patterns. The identification of the causal effect exploits the variation in the number of active workers across municipalities induced by the economic lockdown. The difference-in-difference empirical design compares outcomes in municipalities above and below the median variation in the share of active population before and after the lockdown within a province, also controlling for municipality-specific dynamics, daily-shocks at the provincial level and municipal unobserved characteristics. Our results show that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated to a statistically significant reduction in mortality by Covid-19 and, in particular, for age groups between 40-64 and older. Back of the envelope calculations indicate that 4,793 deaths were avoided, in the 26 days between April 5 to April 30, in the 3,518 municipalities which experienced a more intense lockdown. Assuming linearity, a 1 percentage point reduction in the share of active population caused a 1.32 percentage points reduction in mortality by Covid-19. We also find that the economic lockdown, as expected, led to a reduction in human mobility. Several robustness checks corroborate our empirical findings.

scholarly journals The effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy on the real economy: FAVAR-approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (6) ◽  
pp. 2899-2924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli-Matti Juhani Laine
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The Real ◽  
European Central ◽  
Monetary Policy Effectiveness ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

AbstractThis study applies factor-augmented vector autoregressive models to investigate the effect of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) conventional monetary policy on the real economy. More specifically, the study examines how unanticipated changes in the ECB’s policy rate have affected unemployment rate and industrial production. The effect of monetary policy on unemployment rate and industrial production is estimated to be strong and statistically significant using the data from January 1999 to July 2017 or from the pre-crisis period. However, after the beginning of the crisis the responses weaken drastically and become sometimes statistically insignificant, indicating that the effect of the ECB’s conventional monetary policy became weaker after the financial crisis. This finding is extremely interesting because one could presume either weaker or stronger effect based on economic theory. Additionally, the previous studies that have analysed the possible changes in the monetary policy effectiveness in the euro area have not found any changes (e.g. Bagzibagli in Empir Econ 47(3):781–823, 2014; Von Borstel et al. in Int J Money Finance 68:386–402, 2016).

scholarly journals Simultaneous Detection and Differentiation of Highly Virulent and Classical Chinese-Type Isolation of PRRSV by Real-Time RT-PCR

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuqi Xiao ◽  
Yaosheng Chen ◽  
Liangliang Wang ◽  
Jintao Gao ◽  
Delin Mo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Simultaneous Detection ◽  
Sybr Green ◽  
Taqman Probe ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
The Real ◽  
Prrs Virus ◽  
North American Type

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a leading disease in pig industry worldwide and can result in serious economic losses each year. The PRRS epidemic situation in China has been very complicated since the unprecedented large-scale highly pathogenic PRRS (HP-PRRS) outbreaks in 2006. And now the HP-PRRS virus (HP-PRRSV) and classical North American type PRRSV strains have coexisted in China. Rapid differential detection of the two strains of PRRSV is very important for effective PRRS control. The real-time RT-PCR for simultaneous detection and differentiation of HP-PRRSV and PRRSV by using both SYBR Green and TaqMan probes was developed and validated. Both assays can be used for rapid detection and strain-specific identification of HP-PRRSV and PRRSV. However, the TaqMan probe method had the highest detection rate whereas the conventional RT-PCR was the lowest. The real-time RT-PCR developed based on SYBR Green and TaqMan probe could be used for simultaneous detection and differentiation of HP-PRRSV and PRRSV in China, which will benefit much the PRRS control and research.

Isothermal Target and Probe Amplification Assay for the Real-Time Rapid Detection of Staphylococcus aureus

2015 ◽  
Vol 78 (4) ◽  
pp. 723-727 ◽  
Author(s):  
HYEWON SHIN ◽  
MINHWAN KIM ◽  
EUNJU YOON ◽  
GYOUNGWON KANG ◽  
SEUNGYU KIM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Staphylococcus Aureus ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Rapid Detection ◽  
Food Poisoning ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Fluorescence Detector ◽  
The Real ◽  
Robust Detection ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages

Staphylococcus aureus, the species most commonly associated with staphylococcal food poisoning, is one of the most prevalent causes of foodborne disease in Korea and other parts of the world, with much damage inflicted to the health of individuals and economic losses estimated at $120 million. To reduce food poisoning outbreaks by implementing prevention methods, rapid detection of S. aureus in foods is essential. Various types of detection methods for S. aureus are available. Although each method has advantages and disadvantages, high levels of sensitivity and specificity are key aspects of a robust detection method. Here, we describe a novel real-time isothermal target and probe amplification (iTPA) method that allows the rapid and simultaneous amplification of target DNA (the S. aureus nuc gene) and a fluorescence resonance energy transfer–based signal probe under isothermal conditions at 61°C or detection of S. aureus in real time. The assay was able to specifically detect all 91 S. aureus strains tested without nonspecific detection of 51 non–S. aureus strains. The real-time iTPA assay detected S. aureus at an initial level of 101 CFU in overnight cultures of preenriched food samples (kiwi dressing, soybean milk, and custard cream). The advantage of this detection system is that it does not require a thermal cycler, reducing the cost of the real-time PCR and its footprint. Combined with a miniaturized fluorescence detector, this system can be developed into a simplified quantitative hand-held real-time device, which is often required. The iTPA assay was highly reliable and therefore may be used as a rapid and sensitive means of identifying S. aureus in foods.

scholarly journals Recombinase polymerase amplification assay combined with a dipstick-readout for rapid detection of Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae infections

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0246573
Author(s):  
Sandeep K. Gupta ◽  
Qing Deng ◽  
Tanushree B. Gupta ◽  
Paul Maclean ◽  
Joerg Jores ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Dna Extraction ◽  
Real Time Pcr ◽  
Rapid Detection ◽  
Recombinase Polymerase Amplification ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
The Real ◽  
Positive Rate ◽  
Mycoplasma Ovipneumoniae

Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae infects both sheep and goats causing pneumonia resulting in considerable economic losses worldwide. Current diagnosis methods such as bacteriological culture, serology, and PCR are time consuming and require sophisticated laboratory setups. Here we report the development of two rapid, specific and sensitive assays; an isothermal DNA amplification using recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) and a real-time PCR for the detection of M. ovipneumoniae. The target for both assays is a specific region of gene WP_069098309.1, which encodes a hypothetical protein and is conserved in the genome sequences of ten publicly available M. ovipneumoniae strains. The RPA assay performed well at 39°C for 20 min and was combined with a lateral flow dipstick (RPA-LFD) for easy visualization of the amplicons. The detection limit of the RPA-LFD assay was nine genome copies of M. ovipneumoniae per reaction and was comparable to sensitivity of the real-time PCR assay. Both assays showed no cross-reaction with 38 other ovine and caprine pathogenic microorganisms and two parasites of ruminants, demonstrating a high degree of specificity. The assays were validated using bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and nasal swab samples collected from sheep. The positive rate of RPA-LFD (97.4%) was higher than the real-time PCR (95.8%) with DNA as a template purified from the clinical samples. The RPA assay was significantly better at detecting M. ovipneumoniae in clinical samples compared to the real-time PCR when DNA extraction was omitted (50% and 34.4% positive rate for RPA-LFD and real-time PCR respectively). The RPA-LFD developed here allows easy and rapid detection of M. ovipneumoniae infection without DNA extraction, suggesting its potential as a point-of-care test for field settings.

scholarly journals The effect of mobility restrictions on the SARS-CoV-2 diffusion: lessons from the first wave in Sweden, USA, France and Colombia.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Telle ◽  
Richard Paul ◽  
Samuel Benkimoun
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Real Time ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
The West ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Social Media Platforms ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

Abstract The control of human mobility has quickly been targeted as a major leverage to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a great majority of countries worldwide. Using more than 151 million anonymized movements registered by one of the major social media platforms combined with spatial and temporal Covid-19 data, the objective of this research is to understand how mobility patterns and SARS-CoV-2 diffusion during the first wave are connected in four different countries: the west coast of the USA, Colombia, Sweden and France. In this research, we could demonstrate that introducing movement improved considerably the model. It underlines as well that mobility played an important role in the diffusion of SARS-CoV-2, even during the lockdown, suggesting a moderate impact of lockdown on virus diffusion. However, it suggests that government could better locate where disease mitigation would be the most effective by systematically analyzing real-time movements of population. Lockdown strategies and vaccination campaigns could, for example, be prioritized according to spatial vulnerability and connectivity to hotspots of viral circulation.

scholarly journals An UAV scheduling and planning method for post-disaster survey

2014 ◽  
Vol XL-2 ◽  
pp. 169-172 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Q. Li ◽  
X. G. Zhou ◽  
J. Yin ◽  
Q. Y. Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
High Efficiency ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Road ◽  
Scheduling Method ◽  
High Flexibility ◽  
Post Disaster

Annually, the extreme climate and special geological environments lead to frequent natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, floods, etc. The disasters often bring serious casualties and enormous economic losses. Post-disaster surveying is very important for disaster relief and assessment. As the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) remote sensing with the advantage of high efficiency, high precision, high flexibility, and low cost, it is widely used in emergency surveying in recent years. As the UAVs used in emergency surveying cannot stop and wait for the happening of the disaster, when the disaster happens the UAVs usually are working at everywhere. In order to improve the emergency surveying efficiency, it is needed to track the UAVs and assign the emergency surveying task for each selected UAV. Therefore, a UAV tracking and scheduling method for post-disaster survey is presented in this paper. In this method, Global Positioning System (GPS), and GSM network are used to track the UAVs; an emergency tracking UAV information database is built in advance by registration, the database at least includes the following information, e.g., the ID of the UAVs, the communication number of the UAVs; when catastrophe happens, the real time location of all UAVs in the database will be gotten using emergency tracking method at first, then the traffic cost time for all UAVs to the disaster region will be calculated based on the UAVs’ the real time location and the road network using the nearest services analysis algorithm; the disaster region is subdivided to several emergency surveying regions based on DEM, area, and the population distribution map; the emergency surveying regions are assigned to the appropriated UAV according to shortest cost time rule. The UAVs tracking and scheduling prototype is implemented using SQLServer2008, ArcEnginge 10.1 SDK, Visual Studio 2010 C#, Android, SMS Modem, and Google Maps API.

scholarly journals Rapid Detection of Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei Infection in Shrimp With a Real-Time Isothermal Recombinase Polymerase Amplification Assay

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Ma ◽  
Shihui Fan ◽  
Yu Wang ◽  
Haitao Yang ◽  
Yi Qiao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Gel Electrophoresis ◽  
Rapid Detection ◽  
Bacteriophage T4 ◽  
Recombinase Polymerase Amplification ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
The Real ◽  
Enterocytozoon Hepatopenaei ◽  
Detection Speed

Enterocytozoon hepatopenaei (EHP) infection has become a significant threat in shrimp farming industry in recent years, causing major economic losses in Asian countries. As there are a lack of effective therapeutics, prevention of the infection with rapid and reliable pathogen detection methods is fundamental. Molecular detection methods based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) have been developed, but improvements on detection speed and convenience are still in demand. The isothermal recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) assay derived from the recombination-dependent DNA replication (RDR) mechanism of bacteriophage T4 is promising, but the previously developed RPA assay for EHP detection read the signal by gel electrophoresis, which restricted this application to laboratory conditions and hampered the sensitivity. The present study combined fluorescence analysis with the RPA system and developed a real-time RPA assay for the detection of EHP. The detection procedure was completed in 3–7 min at 39°C and showed good specificity. The sensitivity of 13 gene copies per reaction was comparable to the current PCR- and LAMP-based methods, and was much improved than the RPA assay analyzed by gel electrophoresis. For real clinical samples, detection results of the real-time RPA assay were 100% consistent with the industrial standard nested PCR assay. Because of the rapid detection speed and the simple procedure, the real-time RPA assay developed in this study can be easily assembled as an efficient and reliable on-site detection tool to help control EHP infection in shrimp farms.

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