scholarly journals The relationship among probabilistic, deterministic and potential skills in predicting the ENSO for the past 161 years

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (11) ◽  
pp. 6947-6960
Author(s):  
Ting Liu ◽  
Youmin Tang ◽  
Dejian Yang ◽  
Yanjie Cheng ◽  
Xunshu Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Perspective ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Probabilistic Prediction ◽  
Model Assumption ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
The Past ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Theoretical Analyses

Abstract Here, we explored in depth the relationship among the deterministic prediction skill, the probabilistic prediction skill and the potential predictability. This was achieved by theoretical analyses and, in particular, by an analysis of long-term ensemble ENSO hindcast over 161 years from 1856 to 2016. First, a nonlinear monotonic relationship between the deterministic prediction skill and the probabilistic prediction skill, derived by theoretical analysis, was examined and validated using the ensemble hindcast. Further, the co-variability between the potential predictability and the deterministic prediction skill was explored in both perfect model assumption and actual model scenario. On these bases, we investigated the relationship between the potential predictability and probabilistic prediction skill from both the practice of ENSO forecast and theoretical perspective. The results of the study indicate that there are nonlinear monotonic relationships among these three kinds of measures. The potential predictability is considered to be a good indicator for the actual prediction skill in terms of both the deterministic measures and the probabilistic framework. The relationships identified here exhibit considerable significant practical sense to conduct predictability researches, which provide an inexpensive and moderate approach for inquiring prediction uncertainties without the requirement of costly ensemble experiments.

scholarly journals V. Bryusov’s Letters to His Fiancée

Literary Fact ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 8-30
Author(s):  
Monika V. Orlova
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Terminally Ill ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
State Of Mind ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Village ◽  
The Relationship

The publication includes V.Ya. Bryusov’s letters to his fiancée I.M. Runt (1876 –1965) from June 9 to September 9, 1897. 11 correspondences, including the final telegram sent from Kursk, were written and sent from Aachen (Germany), Moscow and several Ukrainian localities. The letter 10 is accompanied by the full text of I.M. Runt’s only surviving letter to Bryusov, sent from Moscow to the village of Bolshye Sorochintsy and received by the poet a few months later at home. The relationship between the young people before the wedding were complicated. While the poet was preparing for the wedding in Moscow, he summed up the past contacts with “mes amantes”, and his state of mind was painful. Shortly before meeting his future wife, Bryusov broke up with the former governess of his family E.I. Pavlovskaya, who was terminally ill. A few days before the wedding he decided to go to say goodbye to Pavlovskaya to her homeland, Ukraine. In his letters to the future wife the poet tried to smooth out the tension of the situation, perhaps anticipating that he would be bounded with I.M. Runt 30 Литературный факт. 2021. № 2 (20) by a long-term relationship, where life and literature are closely interconnected. The letters are published for the first time.

scholarly journals Phillips Curve: The Greek Case

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Liargovas ◽  
Marios Psychalis
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Economic Adjustment ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Past ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
Classical Economic ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship

One of the most important problems facing Greece is the long-term and high-level unemployment rate. The Economic Adjustment Programmes (EAPs) focused on the supply side of the economy, aiming at the adjustment of prices and wages, draw on the classical economic model, as it is widely accepted that internal devaluation policies keep inflation low. This article attempts to examine whether the Keynesian theory and the Phillips Curve, which shows the relationship between unemployment and inflation, apply in the case of the Greek economy. We use descriptive statistics, ordinary least squares (OLS) and VAR Analysis to examine the relationship between the variables. According to the results, there is a negative correlation between unemployment and inflation in Greece, thus confirming the Phillips Curve hypothesis. Finally, results show that unemployment is less dependent on inflation compared with the past, and there are numerous other decisive factors affecting unemployment.

scholarly journals Mnemonic Populism: The Polish Holocaust Law and its Afterlife

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kornelia Kończal
Keyword(s):  
Significant Other ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cultural Foundations ◽  
The Holocaust ◽  
Heated Debate ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Relationship

In early 2018, the Polish parliament adopted controversial legislation criminalising assertions regarding the complicity of the ‘Polish Nation’ and the ‘Polish State’ in the Holocaust. The so-called Polish Holocaust Law provoked not only a heated debate in Poland, but also serious international tensions. As a result, it was amended only five months after its adoption. The reason why it is worth taking a closer look at the socio-cultural foundations and political functions of the short-lived legislation is twofold. Empirically, the short history of the Law reveals a great deal about the long-term role of Jews in the Polish collective memory as an unmatched Significant Other. Conceptually, the short life of the Law, along with its afterlife, helps capture poll-driven, manifestly moralistic and anti-pluralist imaginings of the past, which I refer to as ‘mnemonic populism’. By exploring the relationship between popular and political images of the past in contemporary Poland, this article argues for joining memory and populism studies in order to better understand what can happen to history in illiberal surroundings.

scholarly journals Comparison of Information-Based Measures of Forecast Uncertainty in Ensemble ENSO Prediction

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 230-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youmin Tang ◽  
Richard Kleeman ◽  
Andrew M. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Prediction Skill ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Potential Predictability ◽  
Model Skill ◽  
Enso Predictability ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Triangular Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract In this study, ensemble predictions of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were conducted for the period 1981–98 using two hybrid coupled models. Several recently proposed information-based measures of predictability, including relative entropy (R), predictive information (PI), predictive power (PP), and mutual information (MI), were explored in terms of their ability of estimating a priori the predictive skill of the ENSO ensemble predictions. The emphasis was put on examining the relationship between the measures of predictability that do not use observations, and the model prediction skills of correlation and root-mean-square error (RMSE) that make use of observations. The relationship identified here offers a practical means of estimating the potential predictability and the confidence level of an individual prediction. It was found that the MI is a good indicator of overall skill. When it is large, the prediction system has high prediction skill, whereas small MI often corresponds to a low prediction skill. This suggests that MI is a good indicator of the actual skill of the models. The R and PI have a nearly identical average (over all predictions) as should be the case in theory. Comparing the different information-based measures reveals that R is a better predictor of prediction skill than PI and PP, especially when correlation-based metrics are used to evaluate model skill. A “triangular relationship” emerges between R and the model skill, namely, that when R is large, the prediction is likely to be reliable, whereas when R is small the prediction skill is quite variable. A small R is often accompanied by relatively weak ENSO variability. The possible reasons why R is superior to PI and PP as a measure of ENSO predictability will also be discussed.

scholarly journals Psychedelic Experiences and Mindfulness are Associated with Improved Wellbeing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tianhong Tim Qiu ◽  
John Paul Minda
Keyword(s):  
Popular Culture ◽  
Mystical Experience ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Clinical Work ◽  
Mindfulness Practice ◽  
Psychological Wellbeing ◽  
Hierarchical Regression ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Relationship

Both psychedelics and mindfulness are a recently emerging topic of interest in academia and popular culture alike. Personal meditation practices and recreational psychedelic use have consistently increased in the past decade. While clinical work has shown both to improve long-term wellbeing, the data on naturalistic applications of psychedelics and mindfulness is rather lacking. The current study aims to examine the relationship between psychedelic use, mindfulness, and multi-faceted wellbeing as an outcome. Hierarchical regression was used to quantify these associations on a large sample of people (N = 1219), who engage in both meditation practices and psychedelic use. These results show that both mindfulness and mystical experiences each predict substantial increases in wellbeing. Psychedelics were found to be an important moderator of mystical experience to explain improvements in wellbeing. These data are among the first to establish a strong relationship between personal mindfulness practice, recreational psychedelic use, and overall psychological wellbeing in a naturalistic framework.

scholarly journals Policy preferences in a post-war environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 205316801877993
Author(s):  
Dino Hadzic
Keyword(s):  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Personal Safety ◽  
The Past ◽  
Large N ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Post War ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

Can reminders of violence committed in the past influence citizens’ policy preferences in the present? Prior work has found that under the threat of violence individuals prioritize safety and adopt policy views aimed at reducing the threat. Elites can then strategically employ concerns over personal safety and security to shape the public’s preferences. I contribute to this literature by conducting an exploratory study of whether invocations of violence committed in the past shape preferences in the long-term, years after the actual violence has ended. To do so, I fielded an experiment on a large ( N = 1125) and nationally representative sample of respondents in Bosnia, the site of a major ethnic civil war in 1992–1995. I did not find evidence that reminders of wartime violence in and of themselves affect policy preferences. Ultimately, this study represents a first cut at a neglected question in the literature and has implications that could motivate future research on the relationship between violent conflict and policy preferences.

Eruption Pattern and a Long-Term Magma Discharge Rate over the Past 100 Years at Kelud Volcano, Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fukashi Maeno ◽  
Setsuya Nakada ◽  
Mitsuhiro Yoshimoto ◽  
Taketo Shimano ◽  
Natsumi Hokanishi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Discharge Rate ◽  
Explosive Eruptions ◽  
Historical Documents ◽  
The Past ◽  
Discharge Rates ◽  
Cumulative Volume ◽  
Magma Discharge ◽  
Mass Discharge ◽  
The Relationship

Kelud Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in Indonesia, with repeated explosive eruptions throughout its history. Here, we reconstructed the relationship between the repose period and the cumulative volume of erupted material over the past 100 years and estimated the long-term magma discharge rate and future eruptive potential and hazards. Tephra data and eruption sequences described in historical documents were used to estimate the volume and mass discharge rate. The volumes of the 1901, 1919, 1951, 1966, 1990, and 2014 eruptions were estimated as 51–296 × 106m3. The mass discharge rates were estimated to be on the order of 107kg/s for the 1919, 1951, and 2014 eruptions and the order of 106kg/s for the 1966 and 1990 eruptions. Based on a linear relationship between the repose period and cumulative erupted mass, the long-term mass discharge rate was estimated as ∼ 1.5 × 1010kg/year, explaining the features of the larger eruptions (1919, 1951, and 2014) but not those of the smaller eruptions (1966 and 1990). This estimate is relatively high compared to other typical basaltic-andesitic subduction-zone volcanoes. This result provides important insights into the evolution of magmatic systems and prediction of future eruptions at Kelud Volcano.

The Spread and Persistence of Māturīdi Kalām and Underlying Dynamics

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 59-92
Author(s):  
Philipp Bruckmayr
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
19Th Century ◽  
Legal Tradition ◽  
The Past ◽  
Theological Schools ◽  
State Of Affairs ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The 19Th Century ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThe paper is concerned with a long-term perspective on the position of Māturīdi kalām within (mostly) Hanafi Muslim societies from Timurid times to the 19th century. Whereas outright conflict between legal and theological schools was mainly a thing of the past during the time in question with Ash'arism, already fully embraced also by Hanafi constituencies within the ahl al-sunna wa l-jamā'a, a preference for Māturīdi views on specific issues persisted among the majority of Hanafi kalām scholars from Bosnia to South Asia. This state of affairs will be highlighted through recourse to madrasa curricula and theological literature from the era and areas as diverse as Turkey and Southeast Asia. Additionally, it seeks to draw attention to the mechanisms behind the spread and long-term persistence of the school throughout large parts of a Muslim world seemingly dominated by Ash'arism in the sphere of scholastic theology. In this regard, the prevalence of Transoxanian legal tradition within Hanafism and its linkages to Māturīdism, as well as the relationship of Naqshbandi Sufism to the school will be discussed.

Culture and tourism: natural partners or reluctant bedfellows? A perspective paper

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 232-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
Greg Richards
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Tourism ◽  
Cultural Institutions ◽  
Major Work ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cultural Field ◽  
The Everyday ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to review the development of the relationship between culture and tourism over the past 75 years and outline some future developments over the coming 75 years. Design/methodology/approach This paper is based on a review of previous major work on cultural tourism. Findings Tourism and culture have been drawn inexorably closer over the years as culture has become one of the major content providers for tourism experiences, and tourism has become one of the most important income streams for cultural institutions. In the future, this is likely to change, as cultural institutions find it increasingly difficult to maintain their authority as the dominant producers of local, regional and national culture and as tourism becomes increasingly integrated into the everyday culture of the destination. Practical implications Cultural institutions will need to change their relationship with tourism as flows of tourists become more prevalent and fragmented. Social implications The authority of high cultural institutions will be eroded as tourists increasingly seek authenticity in the culture of everyday life and the ‘local’. Originality/value This study reviews the dynamics of the cultural field and sketches the long-term future development of the relationship between tourism and culture.

scholarly journals See with Your Eyes, Hear with Your Ears and Listen to Your Heart: Moving from Dyadic Teamwork Interaction towards a More Effective Team Cohesion and Collaboration in Long-Term Spaceflights under Stressful Conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Aggeliki Vlachostergiou ◽  
Andre Harisson ◽  
Peter Khooshabeh
Keyword(s):  
Well Being ◽  
Team Cohesion ◽  
Team Members ◽  
The Past ◽  
Interactional Context ◽  
One Step ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Amount Of Knowledge ◽  
The Relationship

The scientific study of teamwork in the context of long-term spaceflight has uncovered a considerable amount of knowledge over the past 20 years. Although much is known about the underlying factors and processes of teamwork, much is left to be discovered for teams who operate in extreme isolation conditions during spaceflights. Thus, special considerations must be made to enhance teamwork and team well-being for long-term missions during which the team will live and work together. Being affected by both mental and physical stress during interactional context conversations might have a direct or indirect impact on team members’ speech acoustics, facial expressions, lexical choices and their physiological responses. The purpose of this article is (a) to illustrate the relationship between the modalities of vocal-acoustic, language and physiological cues during stressful teammate conversations, (b) to delineate promising research paths to help further our insights into understanding the underlying mechanisms of high team cohesion during spaceflights, (c) to build upon our preliminary experimental results that were recently published, using a dyadic team corpus during the demanding operational task of “diffusing a bomb” and (d) to outline a list of parameters that should be considered and examined that would be useful in spaceflights for team-effectiveness research in similarly stressful conditions. Under this view, it is expected to take us one step towards building an extremely non-intrusive and relatively inexpensive set of measures deployed in ground analogs to assess complex and dynamic behavior of individuals.

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