scholarly journals Impact of North Atlantic SST and Tibetan Plateau forcing on seasonal transition of springtime South Asian monsoon circulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yu ◽  
Yimin Liu ◽  
Xiu-Qun Yang ◽  
Guoxiong Wu ◽  
Bian He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Dipole Mode ◽  
Seasonal Transition ◽  
Anticyclonic Circulation ◽  
Negative Surface ◽  
Surface Sensible Heating

Abstract The South Asian circulation and precipitation in spring shows a clear seasonal transition and interannual variation. We investigate how the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and Tibetan Plateau (TP) forcing affect this seasonal transition over South Asia on interannual timescale. Our results suggest that North Atlantic SST can affect the seasonal transition of South Asian monsoon via TP forcing in spring. The positive tripole pattern of North Atlantic SST anomaly during winter–spring can trigger a steady downstream Rossby wave train with cyclonic circulation over the southwestern TP. This forms a spring dipole mode of surface sensible heating and 10 m winds over the plateau, with a westerly (easterly) flow and positive (negative) surface sensible heating over its southern (northern) regions. A distinct land–air coupling configuration in May is then generated on the southwestern TP via such a positive TP dipole mode, which consists of anomalous positive precipitation, negative surface sensible heating and a baroclinic circulation structure with cyclonic circulation in the mid- to upper troposphere and a shallow anticyclonic circulation in the lower layer. The anticyclonic circulation is opposite to the summertime monsoon circulation. It weakens the cross-equatorial flow and water vapor transport to the South Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, resulting in in-situ precipitation reduction. Consequently, the seasonal transition in circulation over South Asia from winter to summer is delayed.

Recent dust variability over South Asia controlled by North Atlantic SST anomalies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Priyanka Banerjee ◽  
Sreedharan Krishnakumari Satheesh ◽  
Krishnaswamy Krishna Moorthy
Keyword(s):  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The North ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
High Dust

<p>Several studies have associated high dust years over South Asia to warming of the central or eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (El Nino conditions) and the resulting weakening of the summer monsoon. Using satellite aerosol data for 2001-2018, we show that there has been a departure from this relation since the second decade of the 21st century with the North Atlantic Ocean emerging as a major driver of interannual variability of dust over South Asia. This change in relation coincides with the end of the global warming hiatus and a shift towards persistent positive phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Positive phase of the NAO induces cold phase of the spring/summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) tripole pattern. We show here that high dust activity during 2011-2018 is associated with positive SST anomaly over the mid-latitude North Atlantic and negative SST anomaly over the sub-tropical North Atlantic: the two southern arms of the SST tripole pattern. Interestingly, the relation between NAO and these two southern arms of the SST tripole has undergone changes in recent years, which has impacted the South Asian monsoon. The result is general drying over South Asia and an increase in the strength of the dust-carrying northwesterlies. Simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) shows that SST tripole-like anomalies recorded during 2011-2018 over the North Atlantic can generate mid-latitude wave train that weakens the South Asian monsoon circulation, leads to surface high pressure anomalies and increase in dust emission and transport over northwest India and Pakistan. Most of the increase in the dust load can be attributed to enhanced transport at 800 hPa pressure level during May-June, which can lead to ~40-50% increase in dust concentrations at this level.</p>

Combined effects of anthropogenic aerosols and global warming on the South Asian Monsoon

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayantika Dey Choudhury ◽  
Krishnan Raghavan ◽  
Manmeet Singh ◽  
Swapna Panickal ◽  
Sandeep Narayansetti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
The South ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Aerosol Forcing

<p>The South Asian monsoon (SAM) precipitation has been generally regarded to exhibit contrasting responses to greenhouse gas (GHG) and anthropogenic aerosol forcing, although it is not adequately clear as to how it might respond to the combined influence of GHG and aerosol forcing.  The present study examines the individual and combined effects of global warming and anthropogenic aerosols on the SAM based on a suite of numerical experiments conducted using the IITM Earth System Model version2 (IITM-ESMv2). Four sets of 50-year model integrations are performed using IITM-ESMv2 with different anthropogenic forcings 1) Pre-Industrial control, 2) anthropogenic aerosols of 2005 3) CO2 concentrations of 2005 4) anthropogenic aerosols and CO2 of 2005. In the experiment with the elevated CO2 level of 2005, an intensification of SAM precipitation and strengthening of large-scale monsoon cross-equatorial flow is noted relative to the PI-CTL run. In contrast, the experiment with elevated anthropogenic aerosols of 2005 shows a decrease of SAM precipitation and weakening of monsoon circulation relative to the PI-CTL run. A striking result emerging from this study is the strong suppression of SAM precipitation, pronounced weakening of the monsoon circulation and suppression of organized convection in response to the combined radiative effects of elevated CO2 and anthropogenic aerosols relative to the PI-CTL run. By diagnosing the model simulations it is noted that the radiative effects in the combined forcing experiment lead to a pronounced summer-time cooling of the NH as compared to the equatorial and southern oceans which are predominantly influenced by global warming, thereby creating a north-south differential radiative forcing over the Indian longitudes.  Additionally, the influence of absorbing aerosols over South and East Asia creates a surface radiation deficit over the region, stabilizes the lower troposphere, slows down the monsoon winds and reduces surface evaporation.  Although the anticyclones over the subtropical Indian Ocean intensify in the combined forcing experiment, the model simulation shows that much of the precipitation enhancement occurs to the south of the equator over the Indian Ocean whereas the moisture transport and convergence to the north of the equator is substantially reduced. Furthermore, the combined forcing experiment shows that anomalous large-scale descent over the subcontinent reinforces the suppression of organized convection giving rise to more intense breaks and weaker active spells in the southwest monsoon on sub-seasonal time-scales. This study hints that future decreases in NH aerosol emissions could potentially reverse the ongoing decreasing trend of the observed SAM precipitation since 1950s in a purely global warming environment.</p>

scholarly journals Dynamical Response of the South Asian Monsoon Trough to Latent Heating from Stratiform and Convective Precipitation

2011 ◽  
Vol 68 (6) ◽  
pp. 1347-1363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayantika Dey Choudhury ◽  
R. Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Trough ◽  
Cyclonic Circulation ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Dynamical Response ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
The South ◽  
Continental Scale

Abstract Simulation experiments using a simplified atmospheric GCM and supplementary diagnostic analyses of observations are performed to understand how the South Asian monsoon trough (MT) responds dynamically to latent heating from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Observations reveal that the MT during active monsoons is characterized by a deep cyclonic vorticity extending from the surface to 350 hPa and organized MCSs covering over 3500–4000 km along the Indo-Gangetic plains. The MCSs during active monsoons are composed of a relatively higher abundance of stratiform-type precipitation (mostly nimbostratus) as compared to the convective type. The results suggest that a stratiform-type heating profile is very effective in promoting upward development of continental-scale cyclonic circulation well above the midtroposphere over the MT region. The vertical development involves a dynamical uplift of the layer of cyclonic circulation and is induced by midlevel (600–500 hPa) convergence and vorticity stretching above 500 hPa. By varying the population of stratiform and convective rain types in the simulation, the horizontal scale of midlevel vorticity response is shown to increase significantly with stratiform population; in contrast, the midlevel response is more localized when the MCS is dominated by deep convective clouds. For large stratiform populations, the midlevel response is found to extend far westward up to the northern flanks of the African ITCZ, indicative of Rossby wave dispersion of PV anomalies that are generated near the level of maximum heating gradient. From the present findings, one can conclude that the vertical deepening of MT during active monsoons is not merely a localized phenomenon; instead it represents a large-scale dynamical response to organized MCSs that exert pivotal influence on the upward development of cyclonic circulation well above the midtroposphere.

scholarly journals The Mechanical Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the Seasonal Evolution of the South Asian Monsoon

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (7) ◽  
pp. 2394-2407 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyo-Seok Park ◽  
John C. H. Chiang ◽  
Simona Bordoni
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
South Asian ◽  
South China ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Onset ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Westerly Winds ◽  
Southern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract The impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian monsoon is examined using a hierarchy of atmospheric general circulation models. During the premonsoon season and monsoon onset (April–June), when westerly winds over the Southern Tibetan Plateau are still strong, the Tibetan Plateau triggers early monsoon rainfall downstream, particularly over the Bay of Bengal and South China. The downstream moist convection is accompanied by strong monsoonal low-level winds. In experiments where the Tibetan Plateau is removed, monsoon onset occurs about a month later, but the monsoon circulation becomes progressively stronger and reaches comparable strength during the mature phase. During the mature and decaying phase of monsoon (July–September), when westerly winds over the Southern Tibetan Plateau almost disappear, monsoon circulation strength is not much affected by the presence of the Tibetan Plateau. A dry dynamical core with east–west-oriented narrow mountains in the subtropics consistently simulates downstream convergence with background zonal westerlies over the mountain. In a moist atmosphere, the mechanically driven downstream convergence is expected to be associated with significant moisture convergence. The authors speculate that the mechanically driven downstream convergence in the presence of the Tibetan Plateau is responsible for zonally asymmetric monsoon onset, particularly over the Bay of Bengal and South China.

scholarly journals Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 569-582 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. S Ramarao ◽  
R. Krishnan ◽  
J. Sanjay ◽  
T. P. Sabin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Surface Response ◽  
Regional Land

Abstract. Recent studies have drawn attention to a significant weakening trend of the South Asian monsoon circulation and an associated decrease in regional rainfall during the last few decades. While surface temperatures over the region have steadily risen during this period, most of the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global climate models have difficulties in capturing the observed decrease of monsoon precipitation, thus limiting our understanding of the regional land surface response to monsoonal changes. This problem is investigated by performing two long-term simulation experiments, with and without anthropogenic forcing, using a variable resolution global climate model having high-resolution zooming over the South Asian region. The present results indicate that anthropogenic effects have considerably influenced the recent weakening of the monsoon circulation and decline of precipitation. It is seen that the simulated increase of surface temperature over the Indian region during the post-1950s is accompanied by a significant decrease of monsoon precipitation and soil moisture. Our analysis further reveals that the land surface response to decrease of soil moisture is associated with significant reduction in evapotranspiration over the Indian land region. A future projection, based on the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using the same high-resolution model indicates the possibility for detecting the summer-time soil drying signal over the Indian region during the 21st century in response to climate change. Given that these monsoon hydrological changes have profound socio-economic implications the present findings provide deeper insights and enhance our understanding of the regional land surface response to the changing South Asian monsoon. While this study is based on a single model realization, it is highly desirable to have multiple realizations to establish the robustness of the results.

scholarly journals Upper-Tropospheric Forcing on Late July Monsoon Transition in East Asia and the Western North Pacific

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 3929-3941 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Hua Wu ◽  
Ming-Dah Chou
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
The North

By investigating the large-scale circulation in the upper troposphere, it is demonstrated that the rapid late July summer monsoon transition in the East Asia and western North Pacific (EA-WNP) is associated with a weakened westerly at the exit of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS). Even in a normally stable atmosphere under the influence of the North Pacific (NP) high in late July, convection rapidly develops over the midoceanic region of the western NP (15°–25°N, 150°–170°E). Prior to the rapid transition, the EAJS weakens and shifts northward, which induces a series of changes in downstream regions; the northeastern stretch of the Asian high weakens, upper-tropospheric divergence in the region southwest of the mid-NP trough increases, and convection is enhanced. At the monsoon transition, upper-level high potential vorticity intrudes southward and westward, convection expand from the mid NP westward to cover the entire subtropical western NP, the lower-tropospheric monsoon trough deepens, surface southwesterly flow strengthens, and the western stretch of the NP high shifts northward ~10° latitude to the south of Japan. This series of changes indicates that the EA-WNP late July monsoon transition is initiated from changes in the upper-tropospheric circulation via the weakening of the EAJS south of ~45°N. The weakening of the EAJS south of ~45°N is related to a reduced gradient of the geopotential height on the northern flank of the Asian high, which is related to the massive inland heating and weakening of the South Asian monsoon circulation. The exact timing of the monsoon onset might be tied to the hypothesized “Silk Road pattern” and/or a strong weakening of the South Asian monsoon circulation.

scholarly journals Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction of the Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (11) ◽  
pp. 3708-3727 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingwen Jiang ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Yueqing Li ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Xiangwen Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Monsoon Indices

Abstract The NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) is an important source of information for seasonal climate prediction in many Asian countries affected by monsoon climate. The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of the prediction of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) by the new CFS version 2 (CFSv2) using the hindcast for 1983–2010, focusing on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Many ASM features are well predicted by the CFSv2, including heavy monsoon rainfall centers, large-scale monsoon circulation patterns, and monsoon onset and retreat features. Several commonly used dynamical monsoon indices and their associated precipitation and circulation patterns can be predicted several months in advance. The CFSv2 has better skill in predicting the Southeast Asian monsoon than predicting the South Asian monsoon. Compared to CFS version 1 (CFSv1), the CFSv2 has increased skill in predicting large-scale monsoon circulation and precipitation features but decreased skill for the South Asian monsoon, although some biases in the CFSv1 still exist in the CFSv2, especially the weaker-than-observed western Pacific subtropical high and the exaggerated strong link of the ASM to ENSO. Comparison of CFSv2 hindcast with output from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) simulations indicates that exclusion of ocean–atmosphere coupling leads to a weaker ASM. Compared to AMIP, both hindcast and CMIP show a more realistic annual cycle of precipitation, and the interannual variability of the ASM is better in hindcast. However, CMIP does not show any advantage in depicting the processes associated with the interannual variability of major dynamical monsoon indices compared to AMIP.

scholarly journals Reexamining the barrier effect of Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian summer monsoon

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 5019-5036
Author(s):  
G.-S. Chen ◽  
Z. Liu ◽  
J. E. Kutzbach
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Monsoon System

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau has been conventionally treated as an elevated heat source driving the Asian monsoon system, especially for the South Asian monsoon. Numerous model simulations with general circulation models (GCMs) support this hypothesis with the finding that the Asian monsoon system is weak or absent with all elevated topographies removed. A recent model simulation shows that the South Asian summer monsoon circulation is little affected with only the Himalayas (no Tibetan Plateau) kept as a barrier, leading to a hypothesis of the barrier "blocking" mechanism of the Tibetan Plateau. In this paper, a new series of experiments are designed to reexamine this barrier effect. We find that with the barrier, the large-scale summer monsoon circulation over South Asia is simulated in general agreement with the full Tibetan Plateau, which is consistent with the previous finding. However there remains significant differences in both wind field and precipitation field elsewhere, suggesting a role of the full Tibetan Plateau as well. Moreover, the proposed barrier "blocking" mechanism is not found in our experiments. The energy of the low-level air and the convection is lower/weaker over the Indian subcontinent in the full Tibetan Plateau experiment than that in the no-Tibetan Plateau experiment or the barrier only experiment, which is opposite to the barrier "blocking" hypothesis. Instead, there is a similar candle-like latent heating in the middle troposphere along the south edge of the Tibetan Plateau in both the full Tibetan Plateau and the barrier experiments, whereas this "candle heating" disappears in the no-Tibetan Plateau experiment. We propose that this candle heating is the key to understand the mechanisms of the Tibetan Plateau on the South Asian monsoon. Future studies are needed to check the source of the "candle heating" and its effect on the Asian monsoon.

scholarly journals Understanding land surface response to changing South Asian monsoon in a warming climate

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 943-977 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. S. Ramarao ◽  
R. Krishnan ◽  
J. Sanjay ◽  
T. P. Sabin
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Precipitation ◽  
Surface Response ◽  
Regional Land

Abstract. Recent studies have drawn attention to a significant weakening trend of the South Asian monsoon circulation and an associated decrease in regional rainfall during the last few decades. While surface temperatures over the region have steadily risen during this period, most of the CMIP (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) global climate models have difficulties in capturing the observed decrease of monsoon precipitation, thus limiting our understanding of the regional land surface response to monsoonal changes. This problem is investigated by performing two long-term simulation experiments, with and without anthropogenic forcing, using a variable resolution global climate model having high-resolution zooming over the South Asian region. The present results indicate that anthropogenic effects have considerably influenced the recent weakening of the monsoon circulation and decline of precipitation. It is seen that the simulated increase of surface temperature over the Indian region during the post-1950s is accompanied by a significant decrease of monsoon precipitation and soil moisture. Our analysis further reveals that the land surface response to decrease of soil moisture is associated with significant reduction in evapotranspiration over the Indian land region. A future projection, based on the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario of the Intergovernmental panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using the same high-resolution model indicates the possibility for detecting the summer-time soil drying signal over the Indian region during the 21st century, in response to climate change. While these monsoon hydrological changes have profound socioeconomic implications, the robustness of the high-resolution simulations provides deeper insights and enhances our understanding of the regional land surface response to the changing South Asian monsoon.

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