Seasonal predictability of Mediterranean weather regimes in the Copernicus C3S systems

Climate Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s00382-021-05681-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ignazio Giuntoli ◽

Federico Fabiano ◽

Susanna Corti

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Region ◽

Climate Models ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Seasonal Predictability ◽

Economic Implications ◽

Weather Regimes ◽

Weather Patterns ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Good Agreement

AbstractSeasonal predictions in the Mediterranean region have relevant socio-economic implications, especially in the context of a changing climate. To date, sources of predictability have not been sufficiently investigated at the seasonal scale in this region. To fill this gap, we explore sources of predictability using a weather regimes (WRs) framework. The role of WRs in influencing regional weather patterns in the climate state has generated interest in assessing the ability of climate models to reproduce them. We identify four Mediterranean WRs for the winter (DJF) season and explore their sources of predictability looking at teleconnections with sea surface temperature (SST). In particular, we assess how SST anomalies affect the WRs frequencies during winter focussing on the two WRs that are associated with the teleconnections in which the signal is more intense: the Meridional and the Anticyclonic regimes. These sources of predictability are sought in five state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems included in the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) suite finding a weaker signal but an overall good agreement with reanalysis data. Finally, we assess the ability of the C3S models in reproducing the reanalysis data WRs frequencies finding that their moderate skill increases during ENSO intense years, indicating that this teleconnection is well reproduced by the models and yields improved predictability in the Mediterranean region.

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Seasonal predictability of Mediterranean Weather Regimes in the Copernicus C3S Systems

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15185 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ignazio Giuntoli ◽

Federico Fabiano ◽

Susanna Corti

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Region ◽

Climate Models ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Seasonal Predictability ◽

Economic Implications ◽

Weather Regimes ◽

Weather Patterns ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Good Agreement

Seasonal predictions in the Mediterranean region have relevant socio-economic implications, especially in the context of a changing climate. To date, sources of predictability have not been sufficiently investigated at the seasonal scale in this region. To fill this gap, we explore sources of predictability using a weather regimes (WRs) framework. The role of WRs in influencing regional weather patterns in the climate state has generated interest in assessing the ability of climate models to reproduce them.We identify four Mediterranean WRs for the winter (DJF) season and explore their sources of predictability looking at teleconnections with sea surface temperature (SST). In particular, we assess how SST anomalies affect the WRs frequencies during winter focussing on the two WRs that are associated with the teleconnections in which the signal is more intense: the Meridional and the Anticyclonic regimes . These sources of predictability are sought in five state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems included in the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) suite finding a weaker signal but an overall good agreement with reanalysis data. Finally, we assess the ability of the C3S models in reproducing the reanalysis data WRs frequencies finding that their moderate skill improves during ENSO intense years, indicating that this teleconnection is well reproduced by the models and yields improved predictability in the Mediterranean region.

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Mediterranean Heathland as a Key Habitat for Fire Adaptations: Evidence from an Experimental Approach

Forests ◽

10.3390/f11070748 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 748

Author(s):

Susana Gómez-González ◽

Maria Paniw ◽

Mario Durán ◽

Sergio Picó ◽

Irene Martín-Rodríguez ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heat Shock ◽

Seed Size ◽

Mediterranean Basin ◽

Fire Ecology ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Plant Evolution ◽

Fire Adaptations ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

The Mediterranean Basin

Some fire ecology studies that have focused on garrigue-like vegetation suggest a weak selective pressure of fire in the Mediterranean Basin compared to other Mediterranean-type regions. However, fire-prone Mediterranean heathland from the western end of the Mediterranean Basin has been frequently ignored in the fire ecology literature despite its high proportion of pyrogenic species. Here, we explore the evolutionary ecology of seed traits in the generalist rockrose Cistus salviifolius L. (Cistaceae) aiming to ascertain the role of the Mediterranean heathland for fire adaptations in the Mediterranean Region. We performed a germination experiment to compare the relationship of seed size to (i) heat-stimulated germination, (ii) dormancy strength, and (iii) heat survival in plants from ‘high-fire’ heathland vs. ‘low-fire’ coastal shrubland. Germination after heat-shock treatment was higher in large seeds of both ‘high-fire’ and ‘low-fire’ habitats. However, dormancy was weaker in small seeds from ‘low-fire’ habitats. Finally, seed survival to heat shock was positively related to seed size. Our results support that seed size is an adaptive trait to fire in C. salviifolius, since larger seeds had stronger dormancy, higher heat-stimulated germination and were more resistant to heat shock. This seed size–fire relationship was tighter in ‘high-fire’ Mediterranean heathland than ‘low-fire’ coastal shrubland, indicating the existence of differential fire pressures and evolutionary trends at the landscape scale. These findings highlight the Mediterranean heathland as a relevant habitat for fire-driven evolution, thus contributing to better understand the role of fire in plant evolution within the Mediterranean region.

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Predictability of precipitation extremes over the Mediterranean

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-17020 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ignazio Giuntoli ◽

Federico Fabiano ◽

Susanna Corti

Keyword(s):

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Winter Season ◽

Seasonal Prediction ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

Economic Activities ◽

Weather Regimes ◽

Extreme Precipitation Events ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Prediction Systems ◽

Precipitation Events

Intense precipitations events are associated with impacts like damages to infrastructures, economic activities, agricultural crops, power production and society in general. The ability to predict extreme precipitation events months in advance is therefore of great value in densely populated areas like the Mediterranean and may be achieved using seasonal prediction systems like the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) suite of models. Using weather regimes (WRs) from 500 hPa geopotential heights over the Mediterranean the two main objectives of this study are: first to identify how these regimes are linked to extreme precipitation events over the region using reanalysis data; and second to assess the ability of the C3S models in reproducing/predicting these extreme events. We identify four weather regimes for the winter season (DJF) describing the atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean using the 1993-2016 period as reference, i.e. maximum availability of C3S hindcasts. We thus provide an assessment of the models&#8217;s ability in predicting extreme precipitation over the Mediterranean having quantified how daily precipitation anomalies are associated to each WR.

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Two case studies of severe storms in the Mediterranean using AMSU

Advances in Geosciences ◽

10.5194/adgeo-12-19-2007 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 12 ◽

pp. 19-26 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

B. M. Funatsu ◽

C. Claud ◽

J.-P. Chaboureau

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Region ◽

Detection Method ◽

Precipitation Data ◽

Severe Storms ◽

Rainfall Events ◽

Microwave Sounding Unit ◽

Microwave Sounding ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Upper Level ◽

Good Agreement

Abstract. Mediterranean storms and their associated upper level features are diagnosed here using Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations. AMSU-A channel 8 is used to identify upper-level intrusions of stratospheric air, which are often present upstream of heavy precipitating areas, while a combination of AMSU-B channels 3 and 5 is chosen to discriminate moderate to heavily precipitating areas. This precipitation detection method provides results that are in good agreement with TRMM rainfall product and independent ground-based precipitation data. These tools allow us to follow the concomitant evolution of two severe rainfall events in the Mediterranean region and associated upper-level features.

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A peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch.) in Ancient and Early Byzantine Medicine According to Selected Sources (1st – 7th c. AD.)

Symbolae Philologorum Posnaniensium Graecae et Latinae ◽

10.14746/sppgl.2018.xxviii.2.2 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 28 (2) ◽

pp. 27-41

Author(s):

Krzysztof Jagusiak ◽

Maciej Kokoszko

Keyword(s):

Mediterranean Region ◽

Prunus Persica ◽

Mediterranean Area ◽

Northwest China ◽

Persian Empire ◽

Pliny The Elder ◽

The Mediterranean ◽

Early Byzantine

The peach (Prunus persica [L.] Batsch) is a tree native to the region known today as Northwest China, where its fruits were known around 2000 BC. Inhabitants of the Mediterranean Area came into contact with the peach probably between the 6th and 4th century BC thanks to the contacts with Persian Empire. In the western part of the Mediterranean Region the peach appeared later (ca. 1st c. AD). In the period under study there were many varieties of the peach, and they were eaten in many different ways – e.g. raw, dried, boiled etc. They could be consumed without any other ingredients, or as an element of more complicated dishes. Ancient and early Byzantine authors, who wrote their treatises between the 1st and 7th c. AD, and dealt with medicine (Dioscorides, Pliny the Elder, Galen, Oribasius, Aetius of Amida, Paul of Aegina, Athimus and others), described dietetic properties of a peach with details. Moreover, they left some information about a medical use of this fruit. This aspect of their works is an element of a wider and well-known phenomenon, i.e. an important role of all groups of aliments in the ancient art of healing.

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Climate Change Impacts and the Role of Forestry: Insights from the Mediterranean Region

Climate Change Management - Climate Change in the Mediterranean and Middle Eastern Region ◽

10.1007/978-3-030-78566-6_5 ◽

2022 ◽

pp. 119-132

Author(s):

Veronika Andrea

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

The Mediterranean

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New method to detect and quantify weather persistence associated with hydro-climatic extremes

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8044 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Peter Hoffmann ◽

Jascha Lehmann ◽

Bijan Fallah ◽

Fred Hattermann

Keyword(s):

Climate Models ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Reanalysis Data ◽

New Method ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Weather Extremes ◽

Weather Patterns ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Height Fields

Changes in weather persistence are of particular concern in the context of climate change as periods of longer persistence can reinforce weather extremes. In our study we apply structural image recognition methods to global ERA5 reanalysis data to identify when, where and how long isolines of atmospheric geopotential height fields run in similar tracks. We identify regions and episodes around the world in which, retrospectively, unusually long-lasting weather patterns repeatedly occurred. Concerning the temperature and precipitation meteorological fields, we derive a connection between the occurrence of weather persistence and hydro-climatic extreme events.Based on our new method we find that weather persistence has been particularly increasing in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in summer confirming earlier studies. Here, highly populated regions like Central Europe have experienced long-term increases in persistent weather conditions of up to 4-5% between 1981 and 2019 amplifying the risk of prolonged heat waves and droughts. Further, we show that climate models tend to have difficulties in capturing the dynamics of weather persistence and thus may severely underestimate the frequency and magnitude of future extremes events in their climate projections.

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Observational analysis of Mediterranean decadal hydroclimate variability: role of Atlantic-Mediterranean sea surface temperatures

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-11884 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Roberto Suarez-Moreno ◽

Richard Seager ◽

Yochanan Kushnir

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Wet Season ◽

The North ◽

Hydroclimate Variability ◽

The North Atlantic ◽

The Mediterranean

The Mediterranean region is a semi-arid climate zone, subject to droughts, where water resources are scarce and observational data and climate models suggest a tendency towards greater aridification. Moreover, the Mediterranean region is an area of social and political instability and, in the Middle East, open warfare, which might be further stressed by climate change. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic sector, playing the leading role in driving Mediterranean hydroclimate variability from seasonal to multidecadal timescales, whereas the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remains unclear. Nevertheless, the mechanism underlying the NAO is still under debate, and the possibility for coupled ocean-atmosphere decadal interactions, for which several mechanisms have been proposed, would support the role of SST. Based on observations and reanalysis, we conduct a statistical-observational analysis to explore the decadal drivers of Mediterranean hydroclimate variability for the winter half-year (October-to-March) wet season. Our results put forward the uneven intraseasonal influence of the decadal NAO, being the leading driver during the winter peak season (December-to-March), while decadal Atlantic-Mediterranean SST variability exhibit a consistent link for the first months of the wet season (October-to-January). These results emphasize the need to further explore the ocean-atmosphere feedback mechanisms and their possible modulations under climate change. Understanding these mechanisms is essential to improve predictability of hydroclimate in the Mediterranean region, leading to adaptation strategies that mitigate the effect of climate change on the vulnerable population.

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Gamasina Mites (Acari: Mesostigmata) Associated with Animal Remains in the Mediterranean Region of Navarra (Northern Spain)

Insects ◽

10.3390/insects10010005 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 5 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Sandra Pérez-Martínez ◽

María Lourdes Moraza ◽

Marta Inés Saloña-Bordas

Keyword(s):

Population Dynamics ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Mediterranean Region ◽

New Records ◽

Abundant Species ◽

Spring Season ◽

Northern Spain ◽

Animal Remains ◽

The Mediterranean

Mites should not be overlooked as a forensic tool, as many are commonly associated with decomposing animal matter and are closely associated with specific insect carriers and habitats. It is necessary to increase our understanding of the diversity of mites that are found in human and animal remains, their geographical distribution, and their population dynamics. This work is the first study of the role of mites in forensic science in the Mediterranean region of Navarra (northern Spain). Samples were taken using three types of traps (96 modified McPhail, 96 modified pitfall, and 32 carrion on surface) baited with pig carrion during the period between 11 April and 24 June, 2017. Insects were collected in 100% of the traps and only 27% of them contained mites. Information on 26 species of mites belonging to seven families, their ontogenetic phoretic stage/s, their abundance, and presence/absence during the spring season of the study is given. The most abundant species collected were Macrocheles merdarius, Poecilochirus austroasiaticus, and Poecilochirus subterraneus. We are contributing 16 new records for the Iberian Peninsula: seven species of Parasitidae, three species of Macrochelidae, four species of Eviphididae, one species of Halolaelapidae, and one species of Laelapidae.

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