scholarly journals Salvage surgery for continent ileostomies (CI) after a first successful revision: more long-term blame on the reservoir than the nipple valve

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl-Wilhelm Ecker ◽  
Mathias Tönsmann ◽  
Nils Karl Josef Ecker ◽  
Gabriela Möslein
Keyword(s):  
Revisional Surgery ◽  
Underlying Disease ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Nipple Valve ◽  
Retrospective Data Analysis ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Linear Rise ◽  
Cumulative Probabilities

Abstract Purpose The aim of the study was to investigate the underlying cause of long-term complications in patients requiring at least one revision surgery of a continent ileostomy (CI) and to analyze functional outcome. Methods Only patients with CI at least one revision were included in the retrospective data analysis. Four different classes of complications (Cl A–D) were defined: Cl A = Nipple valve (NV), Cl B = pouch, Cl C = outlet (stoma), and Cl D = afferent loop (AL). Associations between underlying disease and origin of complications were analyzed. Cumulative probabilities were calculated using Kaplan–Meier analysis. Results A total of 77 patients were identified with a follow-up of 30 years, requiring 133 surgeries for 148 complications (c.). Cl A 49 c. (33.1%), Cl B 50 c. (33.8%), Cl C 39 c. (26.4%), and Cl D 10 c. (6.8%). Cl A and C complications were not correlated to underlying disease, whereas Cl B and D complications were only found in ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease (CD). The cumulative probability of a second revision showed a linear rise, reaching 62.5% after 20 years. Cl A and B complications both reached 42.1%. Eleven (14.3%) patients (10 Cl B) had pouch failure in a follow-up period of 11.5 ± 8.7 years (1–31 years), whereas 66 (85.7%) had successful revisional surgery. Overall CI survival was 78.8% at 44 years. Conclusion CI survival is limited by inflammatory complications of the pouch based on the underlying disease and not by mechanical limitations of the NV. Trial registration numbers None.

Long-term functional outcomes of different subtypes of primary congenital glaucoma

2019 ◽  
pp. bjophthalmol-2019-315131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Sher Chaudhary ◽  
Amisha Gupta ◽  
Ajay Sharma ◽  
Shikha Gupta ◽  
Rayees Ahmad Sofi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Visual Acuity ◽  
Congenital Glaucoma ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Primary Congenital Glaucoma ◽  
Visual Outcomes ◽  
Post Surgery ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Significant Difference

AimTo analyse long-term visual outcomes across different subtypes of primary congenital glaucoma (PCG).MethodsPatients with PCG with a minimum of 5-year follow-up post surgery were included in the study. Snellen visual acuity recordings taken at their last follow-up were analysed. We evaluated the results using Kaplan-Meier curves to predict the probability of maintaining good vision (as defined by a visual acuity of 6/18 or better) in our patients after 30-year follow-up. The results were also analysed to determine whether there were any differences in the long-term visual acuities with time between the neonatal and infantile PCG. We also analysed the reasons for poor visual outcomes.ResultsWe assessed a cohort of 140 patients with PCG (235 eyes) with an average follow-up of 127±62.8 months (range 60–400 months). Overall, the proportion of eyes with good visual acuity was 89 (37.9%), those with fair visual acuity between 6/60 and 6/18 was 41 (17.4%), and those with poor visual acuity (≤6/60) was 105 (44.7%). We found a significant difference (p=0.047) between neonatal and infantile patients with PCG whereby the neonatal cohort fared worse off in terms of visual morbidity. On Kaplan-Meier analysis, the cumulative probability of survival of a visual acuity of 6/18 or better was more among the infantile PCG in comparison to the neonatal PCG (p=0.039) eyes, and more among the bilateral than the unilateral affected eyes (p=0.029). Amblyopia was the most important cause for poor visual acuity as shown on a Cox proportional-hazards regression model .ConclusionsLong-term visual outcomes of infantile are better than neonatal PCG. Eyes with unilateral have worse visual outcomes compared with those with bilateral PCG because of the development of dense amblyopia.

Reinforcement Rings for Deficient Acetabular Bone in Revision Surgery: Long-Term Results

1997 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Garcia-Cimbrelo ◽  
J. Alonso-Biarge ◽  
J. Cordero-Ampuero
Keyword(s):  
Revision Surgery ◽  
Clinical Results ◽  
Long Term Results ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Metal Ring ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Medial Migration ◽  
Cemented Cup

This study analyzes the long-term results of 23 metal ring supports used in revision surgery since 1979. Only a metallic ring and a cemented cup were used in this series. Bone grafts and cementless cups were excluded from this study. One deep infection was excluded from the follow-up study. In the 22 cases analyzed, the mean follow-up period was 10 years for all cases and 12.2 years for unrevised cases. Bone defects according to the AAOS classification were: Grade 1, 1 case, Grade 2, 1 case, Grade 3, 10 cases, and Grade 4, 10 cases. A Müller ring was indicated in an anterior or medial wall defect (12 cases) and a Burch-Schneider ring was indicated in an anterior or posterior column defect or in pelvic discontinuity (10 cases). The clinical results were good in 8 cases, fair in 8 cases, and poor in 6 cases. Six cases were rerevised or removed, resulting in a total cumulative probability of rerevison or removal of 23.8% after 10 years according to the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Postoperatively, 18 cases had neutral rings, 2 cases had horizontal rings, and 2 cases had vertical rings. Radiological cup migration was found in 12 cases, resulting in a total cumulative probability of migration of 56.8% after 13 years according to the Kaplan-Meier analysis. Changes in the acetabular angle were present in 2 cases, vertical migration in 12 cases, and medial migration in 10 cases. Our data suggest that the metal ring and cemented cup alone could be used for salvage surgery in elderly patients and in low-demand patients. Possibly, adding bone graft could improve these results.

scholarly journals OP21 Predictive value of Milan Ultrasound Criteria in Ulcerative Colitis: A prospective observational cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S020-S021
Author(s):  
M Allocca ◽  
C Dell’Avalle ◽  
F Furfaro ◽  
V Craviotto ◽  
A Zilli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ulcerative Colitis ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Non Invasive ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Endoscopic Remission ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Treatment Escalation ◽  
Line P

Abstract Background Endoscopic remission is associated with better outcomes in ulcerative colitis (UC). However, colonoscopy (CS) is invasive and poorly tolerated by patients. Recently, we developed and externally validated non-invasive ultrasonography based criteria [Milan ultrasound criteria (MUC)] to assess and grade endoscopic activity in UC. We also confirmed that a MUC score > 6.2 is a valid cut-off to discriminate endoscopic activity, defined by a Mayo endoscopic subscore > 2. Aim of this study was to assess the predictive role of MUC on disease course in a prospective cohort of UC patients. Methods UC consecutive patients were followed for at least 12 months after performing baseline bowel US. UC-related outcomes, including need of treatment escalation (defined as the need of corticosteroids or change/optimization of immunosuppressants), hospitalization and surgery, were assessed at 1 year by logistic regression analysis, and were analyzed after long term follow-up (5 years) using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Fig. 1A and 1B. Kaplan–Meier curves for the cumulative probability of hospitalization and surgery in patients with Milan ultrasound criteria (MUC) < 6.2 (solid line) or MUC > 6.2 (dotted line). (p= 0.046; p= 0.023; respectively). Fig. 1C and 1D. Kaplan–Meier curves for the cumulative probability of hospitalization and surgery in patients with Mayo endoscopic subscore 0–1 (solid line) or 2–3 (dotted line). (p= 0.035; p= 0.071; respectively). Results 87 UC consecutive patients were included in the study, 31 (36%) were in endoscopic remission (Mayo endoscopic subscore 0–1) and 56 (64%) in endoscopic activity (Mayo endoscopic subscore 2–3). MUC and Mayo endoscopic subscore significantly correlated at baseline (Spearman’s rank correlations [rho]= 0.642; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.499 to 0.751; p < 0.001). The multivariable analysis identified as independent predictors of need of treatment escalation throughout the 12-month period as being: MUC > 6.2 (OR: 5.95, 95% CI: 1.32–26.76, p < 0.020) and a partial Mayo score (PMS) > 2 (OR: 26.88, 95% CI: 5.01–144.07, p < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of long-term follow up demonstrated a lower cumulative probability of need for surgery and hospitalization in patients with MUC < 6.2 compared to MUC > 6.2 (Fig. 1A and 1B), as well as in patients with a Mayo endoscopic subscore of < 1 compared to Mayo endoscopic subscore of 2–3 (Fig. 1C and 1D). Conclusion MUC is a novel non invasive tool that predicts the course of UC in the short and long term follow-up.

Incidence, Timing of Onset and Severity of Post-Thrombotic Syndrome after Acute Symptomatic Deep Vein Thrombosis: Two-Year Results from a Canadian Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study (The VETO Study).

Blood ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 106 (11) ◽  
pp. 1636-1636
Author(s):  
Susan R. Kahn ◽  
Thierry Ducruet ◽  
Louise Arsenault ◽  
Marie Jose Miron ◽  
Andre Roussin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Data ◽  
Venous Thrombosis ◽  
Late Onset ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Study Cohort ◽  
Post Thrombotic Syndrome ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Timing Of Onset

Abstract Background and Objectives: The post thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is a chronic complication of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). It is difficult to provide DVT patients with long-term prognostic information as there is little longitudinal data on the occurrence of PTS after DVT. We performed a prospective multicenter study of long-term outcomes after DVT (the Venous Thrombosis Outcomes [VETO] Study) to determine the incidence, timing of onset and severity of PTS. Methods: Consecutive patients with objectively diagnosed acute DVT were recruited at 7 participating hospital centres from April 2001-July 2002. Patients attended study visits at Baseline, 4, 8, 12 and 24 months. Clinical data were recorded and standardized assessments for PTS (using Villalta scale) were performed by trained study personnel at each follow-up visit. Patients were classified as having developed PTS if the ipsilateral Villalta score was ≥ 5 on at least 2 visits or at the final follow-up visit, and having severe PTS if a score of >14 or a venous ulcer was documented on any one occasion. The Kaplan-Meier survival method was used to estimate the cumulative probability of PTS and of severe PTS over time. Results: The study cohort consisted of 359 patients. The mean age was 56 years, 50% were male, 2/3 were outpatients, 55% had proximal DVT and 20% had previous DVT. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of cumulative risk of PTS were 29% at 4 months, 33% at 8 months, 35% at 12 months and 37% at 24 months. Corresponding risks of severe PTS were 6.6%, 6.9%, 6.9% and 6.9%, respectively. When the analysis was stratified according to history of DVT, the cumulative incidence of PTS in patients without previous DVT was 25%, 28%, 30% and 31% at 4, 8, 12 and 24 months. Corresponding rates of PTS in patients with previous DVT were 45%, 51%, 53% and 57%. Conclusions: More than one third of patients in our cohort developed PTS within 2 years of DVT, and of these, 1 in 6 was classified as severe. Most cases of PTS and of severe PTS were apparent by 4 months after DVT. Patients with previous DVT had a higher frequency of PTS and of late onset PTS. Our study provides longitudinal data on prognosis that is relevant both to patients with DVT and their treating physicians.

scholarly journals Long-Term Clinical Results of Trabectome Surgery

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasemin Un ◽  
Cihan Buyukavsar ◽  
Dogukan Comerter ◽  
Murat Sonmez
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Glaucoma Surgery ◽  
Long Term Results ◽  
Cumulative Probability ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Trabectome Surgery ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Purpose: To analyze the long-term results of trabectome surgery and to characterize risk factors for failure.Method: This is a single-center retrospective study including 66 eyes of 56 patients who underwent trabectome alone (TA) or phacotrabectome (TP) surgeries between 2012-2016. Surgical success was defined as intraocular pressure (IOP) drop by 20% or IOP ≤21 mmHg and no further glaucoma surgery. Risk factors for further surgeries were analyzed with Cox proportional hazard ratio models. Cumulative success analysis of subgroups was completed with the Kaplan Meier analysis.Results: Mean follow-up period was 59.7±14.1 months. During the follow-up period, 15 of 62 (24.2%) eyes had additional glaucoma surgery. The mean preoperative IOP was 26.8±6.5 mmHg. The mean last visit IOP was 18.7±4.5 mmHg (p<0.01). IOP decreased 30.1% from baseline at the last visit. Average numbers of medications used were 3.42 ±0.76 (range 1-4) and 2.45±1.33 (range 0-4) at preoperative and last visit, respectively (p<0.01). The risk factors for further surgery requirements were higher baseline IOP (HR:1.12, p:0.01), higher central corneal thickness (CCT) (HR:1.01, p:0.04), and higher amounts of preoperative drugs (HR:2.22, p:0.08). The cumulative probability of success was 93.5%, 90.5%, 85.5%, 80.6%, and 77.4% at 3, 12, 24, 36, and 60 months, respectively. Kaplan Meier survival plots indicating the time of additional glaucoma surgery in the subgroups showed higher survival probability in primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), males, phacotrabectome cases, early stage glaucoma, and eyes without previous glaucoma surgery. Conclusion: Trabectome success ratio was 50% at 59 months. Higher baseline IOP and thicker CCT are associated with an increased risk of further glaucoma surgery.

Microvascular Transposition Without Teflon: A Single Institution's 17-Year Experience Treating Trigeminal Neuralgia

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-405
Author(s):  
Andrew R Pines ◽  
Richard J Butterfield ◽  
Evelyn L Turcotte ◽  
Jose O Garcia ◽  
Noel De Lucia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Sclerosis ◽  
Postoperative Pain ◽  
Trigeminal Neuralgia ◽  
Fibrin Glue ◽  
Microvascular Decompression ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Trigeminal Nerve Root

Abstract BACKGROUND Trigeminal neuralgia (TN) refractory to medical management is often treated with microvascular decompression (MVD) involving the intracranial placement of Teflon. The placement of Teflon is an effective treatment, but does apply distributed pressure to the nerve and has been associated with pain recurrence. OBJECTIVE To report the rate of postoperative pain recurrence in TN patients who underwent MVD surgery using a transposition technique with fibrin glue without Teflon. METHODS Patients were eligible for our study if they were diagnosed with TN, did not have multiple sclerosis, and had an offending vessel that was identified and transposed with fibrin glue at our institution. All eligible patients were given a follow-up survey. We used a Kaplan-Meier (KM) model to estimate overall pain recurrence. RESULTS A total of 102 patients met inclusion criteria, of which 85 (83%) responded to our survey. Overall, 76 (89.4%) participants responded as having no pain recurrence. Approximately 1-yr pain-free KM estimates were 94.1% (n = 83), 5-yr pain-free KM estimates were 94.1% (n = 53), and 10-yr pain-free KM estimates were 83.0% (n = 23). CONCLUSION Treatment for TN with an MVD transposition technique using fibrin glue may avoid some cases of pain recurrence. The percentage of patients in our cohort who remained pain free at a maximum of 17 yr follow-up is on the high end of pain-free rates reported by MVD studies using Teflon. These results indicate that a transposition technique that emphasizes removing any compression near the trigeminal nerve root provides long-term pain-free rates for patients with TN.

scholarly journals Coronary artery aneurysms: outcomes following medical, percutaneous interventional and surgical management

Open Heart ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001440
Author(s):  
Shameer Khubber ◽  
Rajdeep Chana ◽  
Chandramohan Meenakshisundaram ◽  
Kamal Dhaliwal ◽  
Mohomed Gad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Surgical Management ◽  
Medical Management ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Artery Bypass ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Coronary Artery Aneurysms ◽  
Kaplan Meier

BackgroundCoronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) are increasingly diagnosed on coronary angiography; however, controversies persist regarding their optimal management. In the present study, we analysed the long-term outcomes of patients with CAAs following three different management strategies.MethodsWe performed a retrospective review of patient records with documented CAA diagnosis between 2000 and 2005. Patients were divided into three groups: medical management versus percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) versus coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). We analysed the rate of major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) over a period of 10 years.ResultsWe identified 458 patients with CAAs (mean age 78±10.5 years, 74.5% men) who received medical therapy (N=230) or underwent PCI (N=52) or CABG (N=176). The incidence of CAAs was 0.7% of the total catheterisation reports. The left anterior descending was the most common coronary artery involved (38%). The median follow-up time was 62 months. The total number of MACCE during follow-up was 155 (33.8%); 91 (39.6%) in the medical management group vs 46 (26.1%) in the CABG group vs 18 (34.6%) in the PCI group (p=0.02). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that CABG was associated with better MACCE-free survival (p log-rank=0.03) than medical management. These results were confirmed on univariate Cox regression, but not multivariate regression (OR 0.773 (0.526 to 1.136); p=0.19). Both Kaplan-Meier survival and regression analyses showed that dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) and anticoagulation were not associated with significant improvement in MACCE rates.ConclusionOur analysis showed similar long-term MACCE risks in patients with CAA undergoing medical, percutaneous and surgical management. Further, DAPT and anticoagulation were not associated with significant benefits in terms of MACCE rates. These results should be interpreted with caution considering the small size and potential for selection bias and should be confirmed in large, randomised trials.

Atrial fibrillation associated with increased risk of venous thromboembolism

2015 ◽  
Vol 113 (01) ◽  
pp. 185-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Cheng Wang ◽  
Cheng-Li Lin ◽  
Guei-Jane Wang ◽  
Chiz-Tzung Chang ◽  
Fung-Chang Sung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Venous Thromboembolism ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Vein Thrombosis ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Long Term Follow Up ◽  
Deep Vein

SummaryWhether atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains controversial. From Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 (LHID2000), we identified 11,458 patients newly diagnosed with AF. The comparison group comprised 45,637 patients without AF. Both cohorts were followed up to measure the incidence of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE). Univariable and multivariable competing-risks regression model and Kaplan-Meier analyses with the use of Aelon-Johansen estimator were used to measure the differences of cumulative incidences of DVT and PE, respectively. The overall incidence rates (per 1,000 person-years) of DVT and PE between the AF group and non-AF groups were 2.69 vs 1.12 (crude hazard ratio [HR] = 1.92; 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 1.54-2.39), 1.55 vs 0.46 (crude HR = 2.68; 95 % CI = 1.97-3.64), respectively. The baseline demographics indicated that the members of the AF group demonstrated a significantly older age and higher proportions of comorbidities than non-AF group. After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, the risks of DVT and PE remained significantly elevated in the AF group compared with the non-AF group (adjusted HR = 1.74; 95 %CI = 1.36-2.24, adjusted HR = 2.18; 95 %CI = 1.51-3.15, respectively). The Kaplan-Meier curve with the use of Aelon-Johansen estimator indicated that the cumulative incidences of DVT and PE were both more significantly elevated in the AF group than in the non-AF group after a long-term follow-up period (p<0.01). In conclusion, the presence of AF is associated with increased risk of VTE after a long-term follow-up period.

scholarly journals Long-term outcomes of transvaginal mesh surgery for pelvic organ prolapse: a retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaojuan Wang ◽  
Yisong Chen ◽  
Changdong Hu ◽  
Keqin Hua
Keyword(s):  
Pelvic Organ Prolapse ◽  
Patient Characteristics ◽  
Pelvic Organ ◽  
Transvaginal Mesh ◽  
Recurrence Rates ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Mesh Surgery ◽  
Patient Global Impression

Abstract Background The objective of this study was to evaluate the overall outcomes and complications of transvaginal mesh (TVM) placement for the management of pelvic organ prolapse (POP) with different meshes with a greater than 10-years of follow-up. Methods We performed a retrospective review of patients with POP who underwent prolapse repair surgery with placement of transvaginal mesh (Prolift kit or self-cut Gynemesh) between January 2005 and December 2010. Baseline of patient characteristics were collected from the patients’ medical records. During follow-up, the anatomical outcomes were evaluated using the POP Quantification system, and the Patient Global Impression of Improvement (PGI-I) was used to assess the response of a condition to therapy. Overall postoperative satisfaction was assessed by the following question: “What is your overall postoperative satisfaction, on a scale from 0 to 10?”. Relapse-free survival was analyzed using Kaplan–Meier curves. Results In total, 134 patients were included. With a median 12-year (range 10–15) follow-up, 52 patients (38.8%) underwent TVM surgery with Prolift, and Gynemesh was used 82 (61.2%). 91% patients felt that POP symptom improved based on the PGI-I scores, and most satisfied after operation. The recurrence rates of anterior, apical and posterior compartment prolapse were 5.2%, 5.2%, and 2.2%, respectively. No significant differences in POP recurrence, mesh-associated complications and urinary incontinence were noted between TVM surgery with Prolift versus Gynemesh. Conclusions Treatment of POP by TVM surgery exhibited long-term effectiveness with acceptable morbidity. The outcomes of the mesh kit were the same as those for self-cutmesh.

scholarly journals Long term outcomes of acute and transient psychotic disorders: The missed opportunity of preventive interventions

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 126-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grazia Rutigliano ◽  
Sergio Merlino ◽  
Amedeo Minichino ◽  
Rashmi Patel ◽  
Cathy Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Psychotic Disorders ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Acute Onset ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Schizophrenia Spectrum ◽  
National Health Service Trust ◽  
Icd 10

AbstractBackground:Acute and transient psychotic disorders (ATPD) are characterized by an acute onset and a remitting course, and overlap with subgroups of the clinical high-risk state for psychosis. The long-term course and outcomes of ATPD are not completely clear.Methods:Electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study, including all patients who received a first index diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10) within the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) National Health Service Trust, between 1 st April 2006 and 15th June 2017. The primary outcome was risk of developing persistent psychotic disorders, defined as the development of any ICD-10 diagnoses of non-organic psychotic disorders. Cumulative risk of psychosis onset was estimated through Kaplan-Meier failure functions (non-competing risks) and Greenwood confidence intervals.Results:A total of 3074 patients receiving a first index diagnosis of ATPD (F23, ICD-10) within SLaM were included. The mean follow-up was 1495 days. After 8-year, 1883 cases (61.26%) retained the index diagnosis of ATPD; the remaining developed psychosis. The cumulative incidence (Kaplan-Meier failure function) of risk of developing any ICD-10 non-organic psychotic disorder was 16.10% at 1-year (95%CI 14.83–17.47%), 28.41% at 2-year (95%CI 26.80–30.09%), 33.96% at 3-year (95% CI 32.25–35.75%), 36.85% at 4-year (95%CI 35.07–38.69%), 40.99% at 5-year (95% CI 39.12–42.92%), 42.58% at 6-year (95%CI 40.67–44.55%), 44.65% at 7-year (95% CI 42.66–46.69%), and 46.25% at 8-year (95% CI 44.17–48.37%). The cumulative risk of schizophrenia-spectrum disorder at 8-year was 36.14% (95% CI 34.09–38.27%).Conclusions:Individuals with ATPD have a very high risk of developing persistent psychotic disorders and may benefit from early detection and preventive treatments to improve their outcomes.

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