scholarly journals A comparison between VAR processes jointly modeling GDP and Unemployment rate in France and Germany

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Di Iorio ◽  
Umberto Triacca
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Statistical Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Economic Convergence ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
European Economies ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Identical Product ◽  
Empirical Methodology

AbstractInvestigating the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment is one of the most important challenges in macroeconomics. In this paper, we compare French and German economies in terms of the dynamic linkage between these variables. In particular, we use an empirical methodology to investigate how much the relationship between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment growth rates are dynamically different in the two major European economies over the period 2003–2019. To this aim, a Vector Autoregressive model is specified for each country to jointly model the growth rate of the two variables. Then a new statistical test is proposed to assess the distance between the two estimated models. Results indicate that the dynamic linkage between Gross Domestic Product and unemployment is very similar in the two countries. This empirical evidence does not imply identical product and labor markets in France and Germany, but it ensures that in these markets there are common dynamics. This could favor the process of economic convergence between the two countries.

Abstract P360: Hypertension Treatment Rates And Health Worker Density: An Analysis Of Worldwide Data

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh Vedanthan ◽  
Mondira Ray ◽  
Valentin Fuster ◽  
Ellen Magenheim
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Worker ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Hypertension Treatment ◽  
Treatment Rate ◽  
Capita Gross Domestic Product ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction: Hypertension is the leading global risk for mortality and its prevalence is increasing in many low- and middle-income countries. Hypertension treatment rates are low worldwide, potentially in part due to insufficient human resources. However, the relationship between health worker density and hypertension treatment rates is unknown. Objective: To conduct an econometric analysis of the relationship between health worker density and hypertension treatment rates worldwide. Methods: Hypertension treatment rates were collected from published reports between 1980 and 2010. Data on health worker (physician and nurse) density were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO). Data for potential confounding variables--per capita gross domestic product, hospital bed density, burden of infectious diseases, land area and urban population--were obtained from WHO and World Bank databases. Potential interaction by per capita gross domestic product was evaluated. Multivariable logistic-logarithmic regression analysis was performed using Stata. Results: Full data were available from 146 countries spanning all World Bank income classification categories. Health worker density was significantly associated with hypertension treatment rate in the unadjusted model (beta = 0.23; p < 0.005). In the fully adjusted model, the association remained positive but was not statistically significant (beta = 0.30; p = 0.078) (Figure). Hypertension treatment rates were more strongly related to physician than nurse density (beta = 0.21 vs 0.08; p = 0.10 vs 0.49). Conclusion: Hypertension treatment rates across the world appear to be related to health worker density, although the relationship does not achieve strict statistical significance. Our results suggest that a 10% increase in health worker density is associated with a 2-3% increase in hypertension treatment rate. Given the global burden of hypertension and other chronic diseases, WHO guidelines for health workforce staffing may need to be reconsidered.

scholarly journals VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH AFTER FIRST DIFFERENCING: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF INFLATION AND ITS DETERMINANTS IN TANZANIA

2021 ◽  
pp. 43-56
Author(s):  
Rachel R. Cheti ◽  
Bahati Ilembo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

The objective of the study was to examine the trend of inflation and its key determinants in Tanzania. We used secondary time series data observed annually from January 1970 to 2020 which are inflation rate, GDP, Exchange rate and money supply. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model was employed for modeling. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF) found that inflation rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), exchange rate and Money supply (M3) were initially non-stationary but they became stationary after first differencing so as to proceed with the analysis. Preliminary tests before obtaining vector auto regressive model were carried out before determining the relationship between the variables. Diagnostic test such as serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, stability and normality were also important to evaluate the model assumptions and investigate whether or not there are observations with a large, undue influence on the analysis. We used Granger causality test (GCT) to determine causal- effect relationship between the variables. The results show that, there is a long run relationship between the variables, also the results showed that exchange rate and money supply (M3) both have a positive impact on inflation rate while gross domestic product (GDP) revealed a negative impact on inflation rate. Finally, the forecast of inflation rate for 15 years ahead was performed. The study recommends that the government should pursue both contractionary monetary policy and fiscal policy in order to control inflation in the country.

scholarly journals An analysis of the relationship of inflation and unemployment to the gross domestic product (gdp) in zimbabwe

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 156-162
Author(s):  
Tendai Makoni
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Yearly Data

The time series yearly data for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and unemployment from 1980 to 2012 was used in the study. First difference of the logged data became stationary as suggested by the time series plots. Johansen Maximum Likelihood Cointegration test indicated a long-run relationship among the variables. Granger Causality tests suggested unidirectional causality between inflation and GDP, implying that GDP is Granger caused by inflation in Zimbabwe. Another unidirectional causality was noted between unemployment and inflation. The causality between unemployment and inflation imply that unemployment do affect GDP indirectly since unemployment influences inflation which in turn positively affect GDP.

The Relationship Between Climate Change and Financial Stability

2021 ◽  
pp. 118-133
Author(s):  
Joan Mwihaki Nyika
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Financial Systems ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Climate Risk Management ◽  
Liability Risks ◽  
The Relationship

Climate change is the greatest challenge of the modern day with the capacity to destabilize global financial systems and socioeconomic welfare. This chapter explores the uncertainties posed by climate change, its effects on the economy, the risks associated with the phenomenon, and approaches to manage them through risk management. Using documented evidence, climate change is shown to result in gross domestic product reductions; physical, transition, and liability risks that result to systemic financial problems characterized by liquidation of companies, losses for, and closure of financial firms and their intermediaries; and inability of investors to pay debts. Climate risk management is proposed as a solution to adapt to climate change and reduce its associated risks.

scholarly journals Economic Crisis in Europe: Panel Analysis of Inflation, Unemployment and Gross Domestic Product Growth Rates

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bibi Rouksar-Dussoyea ◽  
Ho Ming-Kang ◽  
Raja Rajeswari ◽  
Benjamin Chan Yin-Fah
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
European Crisis ◽  
The Relationship

This panel analysis study is conducted to examine the relationship between inflation rates (CPI) and unemployment rates (HUR) with the Gross Domestic Product growth rates (GDP), before and after the 2008 European crisis. Quarterly data for 18 consecutive years and six sample countries from Europe (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary and United Kingdom) have been considered in the panel. In order to get a more profound understanding of the impacts of the European crisis on the relationship between the variables, the panel data set has been classified into 3 separate panels, such that Panel 1 (1999Q1-2007Q4) represents before-crisis panel, Panel 2 (2008Q1-2016Q4) represents the during/after crisis panel and lastly, Panel 3 (1999Q1-2016Q4) represents the long-run panel. Panel 1 is subject to the Fixed Effects with LSDV model, whereby four out of the six countries are significant, and CPI and HUR are insignificant predictors of the GDP. Both Panel 2 and Panel 3 are subject to the Two-way Random Effects model, whereby both CPI and HUR have negative significant effect on GDP. Granger Causality test has also been carried out to determine whether causality is present among variables, based on each panel.

War Making and the Building of State Capacity: Expanding the Bivariate Relationship

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen A. Rasler ◽  
William R. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
State Capacity ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Regime Type ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Representative Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Do So

A central cleavage in the war making-state making literature is between advocates of the notion that warfare has been the principal path to developing stronger states and critics who argue that the relationship no longer holds, especially in non-European contexts. It is suggested that the problem is simply one of theoretical specification. Increasingly intensive warfare, as manifested in European combat, made states stronger. Less intensive warfare, particularly common after 1945, is less likely to do so. Empirical analysis of a more representative data set on state capacity (revenues as a proportion of gross domestic product [GDP]), focusing on cases since 1870, strongly supports this point of view. The intensiveness of war is not the only factor at work—regime type and win/loss outcomes matter as well—but the relationship does not appear to be constrained by the level of development.

The Causal Links Between Foreign Direct Investment And Economic Growth In Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najid Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Farhat Hayat ◽  
Muhammad Luqman ◽  
Shafqat Ullah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Economic Progress ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
The Relationship

This paper investigates the relationship between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Pakistan. The co-integration and error correction model is used to show the relationship between foreign direct investment and gross domestic product in Pakistan. Gross domestic product is taken as dependent variable while foreign direct investment, labor force and domestic capital as independent variables. The results suggest that there is a positive relation between foreign direct investment and gross domestic product in short as well as long run. If we want to make economic progress then there is a need to invite foreign investors because foreign direct investment increases GDP that is economic growth.

scholarly journals The Asymmetrical Effects of Economic Development on Consumption-based and Production-based Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1990 to 2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 237802311877362 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaorui Huang ◽  
Andrew K. Jorgenson
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
National Data ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cross National

The authors examine the potentially asymmetrical relationship between economic development and consumption-based and production-based CO2 emissions. They decompose economic development into economic expansions and contractions, measured separately as increases and decreases in gross domestic product per capita, and examine their unique effects on emissions. Analyzing cross-national data from 1990 to 2014, the authors find no statistical evidence of asymmetry for the overall sample. However, for a sample restricted to nations with populations larger than 10 million, the authors observe a contraction-leaning asymmetry whereby the effects of economic contraction on both emissions outcomes are larger in magnitude than the effects of economic expansion. This difference in magnitude is more pronounced for consumption-based emissions than for production-based emissions. The authors provide tentative explanations for the variations in results across the different samples and emissions measures and underscore the need for more nuanced research and deeper theorization on potential asymmetry in the relationship between economic development and anthropogenic emissions.

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