Long-run trend in agricultural yield and climatic factors in Europe

AbstractReliable projections of crop production are an essential tool for the design of feasible policy plans to tackle food security and land allocation, and an accurate characterization of the long-run trend in crop yield is the key ingredient in such projections. We provide several contributions adding to our current understanding of the impact of climatic factors on crop yield. First of all, reflecting the complexity of agricultural systems and the time required for any change to diffuse, we show that crop yield in Europe has historically been characterized by a stochastic trend rather than the deterministic specifications normally used in the literature. Secondly, we found that, contrary to previous studies, the trend in crop yield has slowly changed across time rather than being affected by a single abrupt permanent change. Thirdly, we provide strong evidence that climatic factors have played a major role in shaping the long-run trajectory of crop yield over the decades, by influencing both the size and the statistical nature of the trend. In other words, climatic factors are important not only for the year-to-year fluctuations in crop yield but also for its path in the long-run. Finally, we find that, for most countries in this study, the trend in temperature is responsible for a reduction in the long-run growth rate of yield in wheat, whereas a small gain is produced in maize, except for Southern European countries.

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Analysis of Crop Yield Prediction of Kharif & Rabi Jowar Crops Using Data Mining Techniques

International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer Science and Software Engineering ◽

10.23956/ijarcsse.v7i11.468 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 7 (11) ◽

pp. 79

Author(s):

Sujata Mulik

Keyword(s):

Data Mining ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Production ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Yield Prediction ◽

Data Mining Techniques ◽

Agriculture Sector ◽

Using Data ◽

Rabi Crops

Agriculture sector in India is facing rigorous problem to maximize crop productivity. More than 60 percent of the crop still depends on climatic factors like rainfall, temperature, humidity. This paper discusses the use of various Data Mining applications in agriculture sector. Data Mining is used to solve various problems in agriculture sector. It can be used it to solve yield prediction. The problem of yield prediction is a major problem that remains to be solved based on available data. Data mining techniques are the better choices for this purpose. Different Data Mining techniques are used and evaluated in agriculture for estimating the future year's crop production. In this paper we have focused on predicting crop yield productivity of kharif & Rabi Crops.

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Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos12020172 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 172

Author(s):

Yuan Xu ◽

Jieming Chou ◽

Fan Yang ◽

Mingyang Sun ◽

Weixing Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Climatic Data ◽

The South ◽

The North ◽

Output Elasticity ◽

The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

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The Pitfalls of Relating Weeds, Herbicide Use, and Crop Yield: Don't Fall Into the Trap! A Critical Review

Frontiers in Agronomy ◽

10.3389/fagro.2020.615470 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2 ◽

Author(s):

Nathalie Colbach ◽

Sandrine Petit ◽

Bruno Chauvel ◽

Violaine Deytieux ◽

Martin Lechenet ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Crop Yield ◽

Weed Management ◽

Crop Production ◽

Yield Loss ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Cropping Systems ◽

Crop Productivity ◽

Arable Farming ◽

Herbicide Use ◽

The Impact

The growing recognition of the environmental and health issues associated to pesticide use requires to investigate how to manage weeds with less or no herbicides in arable farming while maintaining crop productivity. The questions of weed harmfulness, herbicide efficacy, the effects of herbicide use on crop yields, and the effect of reducing herbicides on crop production have been addressed over the years but results and interpretations often appear contradictory. In this paper, we critically analyze studies that have focused on the herbicide use, weeds and crop yield nexus. We identified many inconsistencies in the published results and demonstrate that these often stem from differences in the methodologies used and in the choice of the conceptual model that links the three items. Our main findings are: (1) although our review confirms that herbicide reduction increases weed infestation if not compensated by other cultural techniques, there are many shortcomings in the different methods used to assess the impact of weeds on crop production; (2) Reducing herbicide use rarely results in increased crop yield loss due to weeds if farmers compensate low herbicide use by other efficient cultural practices; (3) There is a need for comprehensive studies describing the effect of cropping systems on crop production that explicitly include weeds and disentangle the impact of herbicides from the effect of other practices on weeds and on crop production. We propose a framework that presents all the links and feed-backs that must be considered when analyzing the herbicide-weed-crop yield nexus. We then provide a number of methodological recommendations for future studies. We conclude that, since weeds are causing yield loss, reduced herbicide use and maintained crop productivity necessarily requires a redesign of cropping systems. These new systems should include both agronomic and biodiversity-based levers acting in concert to deliver sustainable weed management.

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The interaction of seasonal rainfall and nitrogen fertiliser rate on soil N2O emission, total N loss and crop yield of dryland sorghum and sunflower grown on sub-tropical Vertosols

Soil Research ◽

10.1071/sr15286 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 54 (5) ◽

pp. 604 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

G. D. Schwenke ◽

B. M. Haigh

Keyword(s):

Crop Yield ◽

Crop Production ◽

Field Experiments ◽

N2o Emission ◽

N2o Emissions ◽

N Loss ◽

N Losses ◽

Total N ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

The Impact

Summer crop production on slow-draining Vertosols in a sub-tropical climate has the potential for large emissions of soil nitrous oxide (N2O) from denitrification of applied nitrogen (N) fertiliser. While it is well established that applying N fertiliser will increase N2O emissions above background levels, previous research in temperate climates has shown that increasing N fertiliser rates can increase N2O emissions linearly, exponentially or not at all. Little such data exists for summer cropping in sub-tropical regions. In four field experiments at two locations across two summers, we assessed the impact of increasing N fertiliser rate on both soil N2O emissions and crop yield of grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) or sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) in Vertosols of sub-tropical Australia. Rates of N fertiliser, applied as urea at sowing, included a nil application, an optimum N rate and a double-optimum rate. Daily N2O fluxes ranged from –3.8 to 2734g N2O-Nha–1day–1 and cumulative N2O emissions ranged from 96 to 6659g N2O-Nha–1 during crop growth. Emissions of N2O increased with increased N fertiliser rates at all experimental sites, but the rate of N loss was five times greater in wetter-than-average seasons than in drier conditions. For two of the four experiments, periods of intense rainfall resulted in N2O emission factors (EF, percent of applied N emitted) in the range of 1.2–3.2%. In contrast, the EFs for the two drier experiments were 0.41–0.56% with no effect of N fertiliser rate. Additional 15N mini-plots aimed to determine whether N fertiliser rate affected total N lost from the soil–plant system between sowing and harvest. Total 15N unaccounted was in the range of 28–45% of applied N and was presumed to be emitted as N2O+N2. At the drier site, the ratio of N2 (estimated by difference)to N2O (measured) lost was a constant 43%, whereas the ratio declined from 29% to 12% with increased N fertiliser rate for the wetter experiment. Choosing an N fertiliser rate aimed at optimum crop production mitigates potentially high environmental (N2O) and agronomic (N2+N2O) gaseous N losses from over-application, particularly in seasons with high intensity rainfall occurring soon after fertiliser application.

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Design of an Innovative Test Rig for Industrial Bearing Monitoring with Self-Balancing Layout

Machines ◽

10.3390/machines10010054 ◽

2022 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 54

Author(s):

Eugenio Brusa ◽

Cristiana Delprete ◽

Lorenzo Giorio ◽

Luigi Gianpio Di Maggio ◽

Vittorio Zanella

Keyword(s):

Industrial Applications ◽

The Novel ◽

Axial Loads ◽

Test Rig ◽

System Failures ◽

Novel Concept ◽

Time Required ◽

The Impact ◽

Bearing Monitoring

The remote prognosis and diagnosis of bearings can prevent industrial system failures, but the availability of realistic experimental data, being as close as possible to those detected in industrial applications, is essential to validate the monitoring algorithms. In this paper, an innovative bearing test rig architecture is presented, based on the novel concept of “self-contained box”. The monitoring activity is applicable to a set of four middle-sized bearings simultaneously, while undergoing the independent application of radial and axial loads in order to simulate the behavior of the real industrial machinery. The impact of actions on the platform and supports is mitigated by the so-called “self-contained box” layout, leading to self-balancing of actions within the rotor system. Moreover, the high modularity of this innovative layout allows installing various sized bearings, just changing mechanical adapters. This leads to a reduction of cost as well as of system down-time required to change bearings. The test rig is equipped with suitable instrumentation to develop effective procedures and tools for in- and out-monitoring of the system. An initial characterization of the healthy system is presented.

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Priming Fresh and Aged Seed of Soybean (Glycine max L.)

Legume Research - An International Journal ◽

10.18805/lr-462 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Z. Miladinov ◽

I. Maksimovic ◽

S. Balesevic Tubic ◽

P. Canak ◽

J. Miladinovic ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Crop Production ◽

Seed Quality ◽

Potassium Nitrate ◽

Seed Aging ◽

Germination Energy ◽

Yield Production ◽

Stable Production ◽

Aged Seed ◽

Time Required ◽

The Impact

Background: High and stable production requires quality seed. Seed quality is the basis of efficient crop production and farmers need such seeds for optimum yield production. Therefore, various procedures are applied in seed production technology that aim to improve not only the germination of seeds but also the speed of its germination. These methods can reduce of seed aging and the effects of different agroecological factors. Methods: For research the impact of priming used seed aged seven months (fresh seeds) and seed was nineteen months old (aged seed). The seed was treated with following solutions: potassium nitrate (1%), ascorbic acid (100mgl-1) and potassium chloride (1%) for 6 hours and then germinated at 25°C in 8 days. Result: The analysis showed that seed aging resulted in a decrease in its germination energy and germination. Moreover, time required for germination is prolonged, the lipid peroxidation intensity and content of free proline are increased and the amount of vitamin C is reduced. The results showed that the effect of priming is dependable on variety selection, seed age and treatments. Therefore, we can conclude that there is no universal use of one only primer, as it may not be suitable for each particular cultivar and can ultimately lead to a decrease in the germination energy and germination.

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The Impact of Spatial Soil Variability on Simulation of Regional Maize Yield

Transactions of the ASABE ◽

10.13031/trans.12374 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 60 (6) ◽

pp. 2137-2148 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Vaishali Sharda ◽

Cameron Handyside ◽

Bernardo Chaves ◽

Richard T. McNider ◽

Gerrit Hoogenboom

Keyword(s):

Climate Variability ◽

Soil Properties ◽

Crop Yield ◽

Climatic Factors ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Climatic Variability ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Soil Variability ◽

Large Variability ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The study of climate variability and its impacts on crop production has become a continuous effort for the scientific community over the past two decades. However, the impact of spatial soil variability along with climatic factors on crop yield remains uncertain. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of soil and climatic variability on maize yield. We used Alabama as a case study because the agriculture is predominantly rainfed and there is a large variability in growing season precipitation due to the influence of climate variability signals such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The cropping system model CERES-Maize of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate growth, development, and grain yield for maize for the top ten maize-producing counties in Alabama under rainfed conditions during dry and wet ENSO years. Maize yield simulations were compared for one prominent agricultural soil in each county, the top three prominent agricultural soils in each county, and spatially distributed SSURGO soils in each county. Simulated yields were then compared with maize yields reported by the National Agricultural Statistical Services (NASS). The simulation results showed that maize yield was impacted by both climate variability and spatial soil variability. Statistical relationships were established between crop yield, yield changes, and soil properties. This simulation study established the clear importance of soil variability in crop-climate impact studies. Keywords: Crop Modeling, DSSAT, Database, Soil properties, Spatial variability.

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Drought Trend Analysis Based on the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index Using NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections, High Spatial Resolution Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Projections, and Assessment of Potential Impacts on China’s Crop Yield in the 21st Century

Water ◽

10.3390/w11122455 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 2455

Author(s):

Xiaolin Guo ◽

Yuan Yang ◽

Zhansheng Li ◽

Liangzhi You ◽

Chao Zeng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Crop Yield ◽

Spatial Resolution ◽

Crop Production ◽

Southern China ◽

Extreme Drought ◽

Severe Drought ◽

High Latitudes ◽

Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽

Climate Data ◽

The Impact

Drought is among the costliest natural disasters on both ecosystems and agroeconomics in China. However, most previous studies have used coarse resolution data or simply stopped short of investigating drought projection and its impact on crop yield. Motivated by the newly released higher-resolution climate projection dataset and the crucial need to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural production, the overarching goal of this study was to systematically and comprehensively predict future droughts at unprecedented resolutions over China as a whole. rather than region-specific projections, and then to further investigate its impact on crop yield by innovatively using a soil water deficit drought index. Methodologically, the drought projections were quantified from very high resolution climate data and further predicted impacts on crop yield over China using the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at a relatively high (25 km) spatial resolution from NASA’s Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP). The results showed that (1) overall, China is projected to experience a significant decrease in SPEI (−0.15/decade under RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5; −0.14/decade under RCP8.5). Seasonally, the decreasing rate of SPEI is projected to be largest in winter (−0.2/decade and −0.31/decade) and the least in summer (−0.08/decade and −0.10/decade) under respective RCPs. (2) Regionally, winter/spring will get drier, especially at high latitudes/altitudes (North China and Tibetan plateau), and summer/autumn will get wetter in southern China. (3) Both the frequency and duration for medium and severe drought are projected to decrease, while extreme drought, particularly in high latitudes/altitudes, is projected to increase. (4) The percentage of the potential crop production affected by drought would increase to 36% (47%) by 2100 under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Especially, the ratio impacted by extreme drought is projected to increase over time and with much worse magnitude under RCP8.5; thus, adaptive crop policies are expected to address such a risk.

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Legumes crop rotation can improve food and nutrition security in Nepal

Agronomy Journal of Nepal ◽

10.3126/ajn.v3i0.9014 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 3 ◽

pp. 123-127 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

S Pokhrel ◽

S Pokhrel

Keyword(s):

Soil Erosion ◽

Crop Rotation ◽

Food Production ◽

Crop Production ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Nutrition Security ◽

Long Run ◽

Cost Controls ◽

Food And Nutrition ◽

The Impact

An intensive review of the literatures was made to access the importance of crop rotation for sustainable agriculture in Nepal. Result shows that an appropriate crop sequences improves soil fertility, reduces fertilizer cost, controls soil erosion, makes environment healthy, increases crop yields and develop sustainable crop production in the long run. Based on the study, identification of location specific crop sequences, their extension and evaluation of the impact on food production are recommended. Agronomy Journal of Nepal (Agron JN) Vol. 3. 2013, Page 123-127 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/ajn.v3i0.9014

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The Impact of Insurance Provision on Household Production and Financial Decisions

American Economic Journal Economic Policy ◽

10.1257/pol.20130371 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 44-88 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Jing Cai

Keyword(s):

Crop Production ◽

Relative Proportion ◽

Household Production ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Agricultural Insurance ◽

Financial Decisions ◽

Long Run ◽

Triple Difference ◽

Saving Behavior ◽

The Impact

This paper uses a natural experiment to study the impact of an agricultural insurance program on household production, borrowing, and saving behavior. The empirical strategy includes difference-in-differences and triple difference estimations. The results show that insurance provision increases the insured crop production by 16 percent and raises borrowing by 29 percent. Interestingly, it does not affect total household savings; however, it does affect the relative proportion of flexible-term savings. Furthermore, effects on production and savings persist in the long run, while effects on borrowing are significant in only the medium run. Lastly, calibration results suggest that the policy is both welfare improving and cost-effective. (JEL D13, D14, G22, O16, P32, P36, Q12)

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