scholarly journals Heterogeneous snowpack response and snow drought occurrence across river basins of northwestern North America under 1.0°C to 4.0°C global warming

2021 ◽  
Vol 164 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh R. Shrestha ◽  
Barrie R. Bonsal ◽  
James M. Bonnyman ◽  
Alex J. Cannon ◽  
Mohammad Reza Najafi
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North America ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Large River ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Northwestern North America

AbstractAnthropogenic climate change is affecting the snowpack freshwater storage, with socioeconomic and ecological impacts. We present an assessment of maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) change in large river basins of the northwestern North America region using the Canadian Regional Climate Model 50-member ensemble under 1.0 °C to 4.0 °C global warming thresholds above the pre-industrial period. The projections indicate steep SWEmax decline in the warmer coastal/southern basins (i.e., Skeena, Fraser and Columbia), moderate decline in the milder interior basins (i.e., Peace, Athabasca and Saskatchewan), and either a small increase or decrease in the colder northern basins (i.e., Yukon, Peel, and Liard). A key factor for these spatial differences is the proximity of winter mean temperature to the freeze/melt threshold, with larger SWEmax declines for the basins closer to the threshold. Using the random forests machine-learning model, we find that the SWEmax change is primarily temperature controlled, especially for warmer basins. Further, under a categorical framework of below-normal SWEmax defined as snow drought (SD), we find that above-normal temperature and precipitation are the dominant conditions for SD occurrences under higher global warming thresholds. This implies a limited capacity of precipitation increase to compensate the temperature-driven snowpack decline. Additionally, the frequency and severity of SD occurrences are projected to be most extreme in the southern basins where current water demands are highest. Overall, the results of this study, including insights on snowpack changes, their climatic controls, and the framework for SD classification, are applicable for basins spanning a range of hydro-climatological regimes.

scholarly journals Assessing Climatic Drivers of Spring Mean and Annual Maximum Flows in Western Canadian River Basins

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1617
Author(s):  
Yonas B. Dibike ◽  
Rajesh R. Shrestha ◽  
Colin Johnson ◽  
Barrie Bonsal ◽  
Paulin Coulibaly
Keyword(s):  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Spring Precipitation ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Maximum Flows

Flows originating from cold and mountainous watersheds are highly dependent on temperature and precipitation patterns, and the resulting snow accumulation and melt conditions, affecting the magnitude and timing of annual peak flows. This study applied a multiple linear regression (MLR) modelling framework to investigate spatial variations and relative importance of hydroclimatic drivers of annual maximum flows (AMF) and mean spring flows (MAMJflow) in 25 river basins across western Canada. The results show that basin average maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), April 1st SWE and spring precipitation (MAMJprc) are the most important predictors of both AMF and MAMJflow, with the proportion of explained variance averaging 51.7%, 44.0% and 33.5%, respectively. The MLR models’ abilities to project future changes in AMF and MAMJflow in response to changes to the hydroclimatic controls are also examined using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) output for RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show considerable spatial variations depending on individual watershed characteristics with projected changes in AMF ranging from −69% to +126% and those of MAMJflow ranging from −48% to +81% by the end of this century. In general, the study demonstrates that the MLR framework is a useful approach for assessing the spatial variation in hydroclimatic controls of annual maximum and mean spring flows in the western Canadian river basins. However, there is a need to exercise caution in applying MLR models for projecting changes in future flows, especially for regulated basins.

scholarly journals Adaptation and Application of the large LAERTES-EU RCM Ensemble for Modeling Hydrological Extremes: A pilot study for the Rhine basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Ehmele ◽  
Lisa-Ann Kautz ◽  
Hendrik Feldmann ◽  
Yi He ◽  
Martin Kadlec ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pilot Study ◽  
Central Europe ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Large River ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Large River Basins

Abstract. Enduring and extensive heavy precipitation associated with widespread river floods are among the main natural hazards affecting Central Europe. Since such events are characterized by long return periods, it is difficult to adequately quantify their frequency and intensity solely based on the available observations of precipitation. Furthermore, long-term observations are rare, not homogeneous in space and time, and thus not suitable to run hydrological models (HMs) with respect to extremes. To overcome this issue, we make use of the recently introduced LAERTES-EU (LArge Ensemble of Regional climaTe modEl Simulations for EUrope) data set, which is an ensemble of regional climate model simulations providing over 12.000 simulated years. LAERTES-EU is adapted for the use in an HM to calculate discharges for large river basins by applying a quantile mapping with a fixed density function to correct the mainly positive bias in model precipitation. The Rhine basin serves as a pilot area for calibration and validation. The results show clear improvements in the representation of both precipitation (e.g., annual cycle and intensity distributions) and simulated discharges by the HM after the bias correction. Furthermore, the large size of LAERTES-EU improves the statistical representativeness also for high return values above 100 years of discharges. We conclude that the bias-corrected LAERTES-EU data set is generally suitable for hydrological applications and posterior risk analyses. The results of this pilot study will soon be applied to several large river basins in Central Europe.

Climate change decisive for Asia’s snow meltwater supply

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Kraaijenbrink ◽  
Emmy Stigter ◽  
Tandong Yao ◽  
Walter Immerzeel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Large River ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Snow ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Snow Model

<p>Meltwater from seasonal snow provides a substantial amount of runoff to many of the rivers that originate in the high mountains of Asia, yet the importance of snow in the region as streamflow component, its changes over the past decades, and its sensitivity to future climatic changes are relatively unknown. To understand future changes in the water supply to the millions of people living downstream, a better understanding of snow dynamics at large scale is key. Using a novel snow model, forced by ERA5 climate reanalysis and calibrated by MODIS remote sensing observations, we generate daily snow water equivalent output at 0.05° resolution covering all major river basins in Asia. We show that between 1979 and 2018 significant and spatially variable changes have occurred in snow meltwater availability and its timing, with melt peaks attenuating and/or advancing in time, and snowmelt seasons shortening. Additionally, our results reveal that snowmelt is a much more important contributor to streamflow than glacier melt in many of Asia's large river basins. In a bottom-up elasticity analysis we project strong changes in snowmelt in the future under changing temperature and precipitation. Sensitivity of snowmelt to climate change varies among basins, however, and actual losses are strongly dependent on the degree of future climate change. Limiting climate change in the current century is therefore crucial in order to sustain the role of seasonal snow packs in Asia’s water supply.</p>

scholarly journals Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dae Il Jeong ◽  
Alex J. Cannon ◽  
Xuebin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
North America ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Accretion ◽  
Ice Loads ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation (FP) can lead to severe damage and failure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projected changes to extreme ice loads – those used to design infrastructure over North America (NA) – for future periods of specified global mean temperature change (GMTC), relative to a recent 1986–2016 period, using a large 50 member initial condition ensemble of the CanRCM4 regional climate model driven by CanESM2 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The analysis is based on three-hourly ice accretions on horizontal, vertical, and radial surfaces calculated based on FP diagnosed by the offline Bourgouin algorithm as well as wind speed during FP. The CanRCM4 ensemble projects an increase in future design ice loads for most of northern NA and decreases for most of southern NA and some northeastern coastal regions. These changes are mainly caused by regional increases in future upper level and surface temperatures associated with global warming. Projected changes in design ice thickness are also affected by changes in future precipitation intensity and surface wind speed. Changes in upper level and surface temperature conditions for FP occurrence in CanRCM4 are in broad agreement with those from nine global climate models, but display regional differences under the same level of global warming, indicating that a larger multi-model, multi-scenario ensemble may be needed to better account for additional sources of structural and scenario uncertainty. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than 40° N are substantial and would have clear implications for future building and infrastructure design.

scholarly journals Land Surface Model influence on the simulated climatologies of temperature and precipitation extremes in the WRF v.3.9 model over North America

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almudena García-García ◽  
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero ◽  
Hugo Beltrami ◽  
J. Fidel González-Rouco ◽  
Elena García-Bustamante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract. The representation and projection of extreme temperature and precipitation events in regional and global climate models are of major importance for the study of climate change impacts. However, state-of-the-art global and regional climate model simulations yield a broad inter-model range of intensity, duration and frequency of these extremes. Here, we present a modeling experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to determine the influence of the land surface model (LSM) component on uncertainties associated with extreme events. First, we evaluate land-atmosphere interactions within four simulations performed by the WRF model using three different LSMs from 1980 to 2012 over North America. Results show LSM-dependent differences at regional scales in the frequency of occurrence of events when surface conditions are altered by atmospheric forcing or land processes. The inter-model range of extreme statistics across the WRF simulations is large, particularly for indices related to the intensity and duration of temperature and precipitation extremes. Areas showing large uncertainty in WRF simulated extreme events are also identified in a model ensemble from three different Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project, revealing the implications of these results for other model ensembles. This study illustrates the importance of the LSM choice in climate simulations, supporting the development of new modeling studies using different LSM components to understand inter-model differences in simulating temperature and precipitation extreme events, which in turn will help to reduce uncertainties in climate model projections.

scholarly journals Projected changes to extreme freezing precipitation and design ice loads over North America based on a large ensemble of Canadian regional climate model simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 857-872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dae Il Jeong ◽  
Alex J. Cannon ◽  
Xuebin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
North America ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Accretion ◽  
Ice Loads ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. Atmospheric ice accretion caused by freezing precipitation (FP) can lead to severe damage and the failure of buildings and infrastructure. This study investigates projected changes to extreme ice loads – those used to design infrastructure over North America (NA) – for future periods of specified global mean temperature change (GMTC), relative to the recent 1986–2016 period, using a large 50-member initial-condition ensemble of the CanRCM4 regional climate model, driven by CanESM2 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The analysis is based on 3-hourly ice accretions on horizontal, vertical and radial surfaces calculated based on FP diagnosed by the offline Bourgouin algorithm and wind speed during FP. The CanRCM4 ensemble projects an increase in future design ice loads for most of northern NA and decreases for most of southern NA and some northeastern coastal regions. These changes are mainly caused by regional increases in future upper-level and surface temperatures associated with global warming. Projected changes in design ice thickness are also affected by changes in future precipitation intensity and surface wind speed. Changes in upper-level and surface temperature conditions for FP occurrence in CanRCM4 are in broad agreement with those from nine global climate models but display regional differences under the same level of global warming, indicating that a larger multi-model, multi-scenario ensemble may be needed to better account for additional sources of structural and scenario uncertainty. Increases in ice accretion for latitudes higher than 40∘ N are substantial and would have clear implications for future building and infrastructure design.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 622
Author(s):  
Tugba Ozturk ◽  
F. Sibel Saygili-Araci ◽  
M. Levent Kurnaz
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Pronounced Increase ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Extreme Indices

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century.

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