scholarly journals Systemic criticality—a new assessment concept improving the evidence basis for CI protection

2021 ◽  
Vol 165 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip M. Kruse ◽  
Hanna C. Schmitt ◽  
Stefan Greiving
Keyword(s):  
Road Network ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Spatial Dimension ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
The Road ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Critical Facilities ◽  
Global Impacts ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWith high certainty, extreme weather events will intensify in their impact within the next 10 years due to climate change-induced increases in hazard probability of occurrence and simultaneous increases in socio-economic vulnerability. Data from previous mega-disasters show that losses from disruptions of critical services surpass the value of direct damages in the exposed areas because critical infrastructures [CI] are increasingly (inter-) dependent. Local events may have global impacts. Systemic criticality, which describes the relevance of a critical infrastructure due to its positioning within the system, needs to be addressed to reduce the likelihood of cascading effects. This paper presents novel approaches to operationalise and assess systemic criticality. Firstly, the paper introduces systemic cascade potential as a measurement of systemic criticality. It takes the relevance of a sector and the relevance of its interdependencies into account to generate a relative value of systemic importance for a CI sector. Secondly, an exemplary sectoral assessment of the road network allows reflecting the spatial manifestation of the first level of cascading effects. It analyses the impact of traffic interruptions on the accessibility of critical facilities to point out the systemically most critical segments of the municipal road network. To further operationalise the spatial dimension of criticality, a normative assertion determining the worthiness of protection of system components is required. A nationwide spatial flood protection plan incorporates this aspect in Germany for the first time. Its formal approval process was initiated in February 2020.

scholarly journals Roads at risk – traffic detours from debris flows in southern Norway

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (10) ◽  
pp. 6623-6651 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. K. Meyer ◽  
W. Schwanghart ◽  
O. Korup ◽  
F. Nadim
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Traffic Load ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Northwestern Part ◽  
Link Failure ◽  
The Road ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Southern Norway ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Globalization and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g., road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load expressed as vehicle kilometers because of debris-flow related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network, and quantify the associated path failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and northwestern part of the study area are associated with high link failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold, and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying of speedy delivery of services and goods.

Winter Storm Uri: A Test of Texas’ Water Infrastructure and Water Resource Resilience to Extreme Winter Weather Events

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yael R. Glazer ◽  
Darrel M. Tremaine ◽  
Jay L. Banner ◽  
Margaret Cook ◽  
Robert E. Mace ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Water Infrastructure ◽  
Winter Storm ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Small Water ◽  
Vulnerable Communities ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Infrastructure Resilience

We synthesize the interconnected impacts of Texas’ water and energy resources and infrastructure including the cascading effects due to Winter Storm Uri. The government’s preparedness, communication, policies, and response as well as storm impacts on vulnerable communities are evaluated using available information and data. Where knowledge gaps exist, we propose potential research to elucidate health, environmental, policy, and economic impacts of the extreme weather event. We expect that recommendations made here — while specific to the situation and outcomes of Winter Storm Uri — will increase Texas’ resilience to other extreme weather events not discussed in this paper. We found that out of 14 million residents who were on boil water notices, those who were served by very small water systems went, on average, a minimum of three days longer without potable water. Available county-level data do not indicate vulnerable communities went longer periods of time without power or water during the event. More resolved data are required to understand who was most heavily impacted at the community or neighborhood level. Gaps in government communication, response, and policy are discussed, including issues with identifying — and securing power to — critical infrastructure and the fact that the state’s Emergency Alert System was not used consistently to update Texans during the crisis. Finally, research recommendations are made to bolster weaknesses discovered during and after the storm including (1) reliable communication strategies, (2) reducing disproportionate impacts to vulnerable communities, (3) human health impacts, (4) increasing water infrastructure resilience, and (5) how climate change could impact infrastructure resilience into the future.

scholarly journals Roads at risk: traffic detours from debris flows in southern Norway

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 985-995 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. K. Meyer ◽  
W. Schwanghart ◽  
O. Korup ◽  
F. Nadim
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flows ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Linear Structure ◽  
Traffic Load ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Link Failure ◽  
The Road ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Southern Norway ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Globalisation and interregional exchange of people, goods, and services has boosted the importance of and reliance on all kinds of transport networks. The linear structure of road networks is especially sensitive to natural hazards. In southern Norway, steep topography and extreme weather events promote frequent traffic disruption caused by debris flows. Topographic susceptibility and trigger frequency maps serve as input into a hazard appraisal at the scale of first-order catchments to quantify the impact of debris flows on the road network in terms of a failure likelihood of each link connecting two network vertices, e.g. road junctions. We compute total additional traffic loads as a function of traffic volume and excess distance, i.e. the extra length of an alternative path connecting two previously disrupted network vertices using a shortest-path algorithm. Our risk metric of link failure is the total additional annual traffic load, expressed as vehicle kilometres, because of debris-flow-related road closures. We present two scenarios demonstrating the impact of debris flows on the road network and quantify the associated path-failure likelihood between major cities in southern Norway. The scenarios indicate that major routes crossing the central and north-western part of the study area are associated with high link-failure risk. Yet options for detours on major routes are manifold and incur only little additional costs provided that drivers are sufficiently well informed about road closures. Our risk estimates may be of importance to road network managers and transport companies relying on speedy delivery of services and goods.

ANALISIS PENGARUH PEMBANGUNAN JALAN LAYANG JANTI TERHADAP PERKEMBANGAN TATA RUANG KAWASAN JANTI STUDI KASUS : KAWASAN JANTI, DESA CATURTUNGGAL, KABUPATEN SLEMAN, D. I. YOGYAKARTA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 255
Author(s):  
Jeky El Boru
Keyword(s):  
Road Network ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Qualitative Description ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Open Spaces ◽  
The Road ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Linkage Method ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Parking Place

Abstract: This research aims to analyze the impact of Janti Flyover Construction toward the growth of layout at Janti Urban Area, including structured space, open space, and linkage. Method used for data collecting are observation, air photograph monitoring, and interview, whereas the analysis method is qualitative description, which is the superimposed method of two layers, that are the layout condition before and after flyover construction. The result shows that the impact of Janti Flyover construction can be seen on building mass (solid), the increasing number of open spaces, including the road network, parking place, and park, whereas the relation between spaces, visually and structurally, can be seen on the growth of buildings which have new shapes and styles, therefore the performance of the overall building does not have a proportional shape. Considering Janti Street at the collective relation, its role is getting stronger as the main frame road network.Keywords: Flyover construction, layout changing, Janti AreaAbstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pembangunan Jalan Layang Janti terhadap perkembangan tata ruang Kawasan Janti, meliputi ruang terbangun, ruang terbuka, serta hubungan antar ruang (“linkage”). Metode pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui observasi, pengamatan foto udara, dan wawancara; sedangkan metode analisis melalui deskripsi secara kualitatif yang berupa “superimposed method” dari dua lapisan kondisi lahan, yakni kondisi tata ruang sebelum dan sesudah pembangunan jalan layang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh pembangunan Jalan Layang Janti terdapat pada massa bangunan (“solid”), pertambahan ruang terbuka yang berupa jaringan jalan, parkir, dan taman; sedangkan pada hubungan antar ruang ̶ secara visual dan struktural ̶ yakni tumbuhnya bangunan dengan bentuk dan gaya baru, sehingga bentuk tampilan bangunan secara keseluruhan tidak proporsional. Pada hubungan kolektif, Jalan Janti semakin kuat perannya sebagai kerangka utama jaringan jalan.Kata kunci : Pembangunan jalan layang, tata ruang, Kawasan Janti

scholarly journals Extreme Meteorological Events in a Coastal Lagoon Ecosystem: The Ria de Aveiro Lagoon (Portugal) Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 727
Author(s):  
José Fortes Lopes ◽  
Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽  
João Miguel Dias
Keyword(s):  
Water Temperature ◽  
Coastal Lagoon ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Ria De Aveiro ◽  
Physical Conditions ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

Extreme weather events (EWEs) represent meteorological hazards for coastal lagoon hydrodynamics, of which intensity and frequency are increasing over the last decades as a consequence of climate changes. The imbalances they generated should affect primarily vulnerable low-lying areas while potentially disturbing the physical balances (salt and water temperature) and, therefore, the ecosystem equilibrium. This study arises from the need to assess the impact of EWEs on the Ria de Aveiro, a lagoon situated in the Portuguese coastal area. Furthermore, it was considered that those events occur under the frame of a future sea-level rise, as predicted by several climate change scenarios. Two EWEs scenarios, a dry and an extremely wet early summer reflecting past situations and likely to occur in the future, were considered to assess the departure from the system baseline functioning. It was used as a biogeochemistry model that simulates the hydrodynamics, as well as the baseline physical and biogeochemistry state variables. The dry summer scenario, corresponding to a significant reduction in the river’s inflow, evidences a shift of the system to a situation under oceanic dominance characterized by colder and saltier water (~18 °C; 34 PSU) than the baseline while lowering the concentration of the nutrients and reducing the phytoplankton population to a low-level limit. Under a wet summer scenario, the lagoon shifted to a brackish and warmer situation (~21 °C, <15 PSU) in a time scale of some tidal periods, driven by the combining effect of the tidal transport and the river’s inflow. Phytoplankton patterns respond to variability on local and short-term scales that reflect physical conditions within the lagoon, inducing nutrient-supported growth. Overall, the results indicate that EWEs generate local and transient changes in physical conditions (namely salinity and water temperature) in response to the characteristic variability of the lagoon’s hydrodynamics associated with a tidal-dominated system. Therefore, in addition to the potential impact of changing physical conditions on the ecosystem, saline intrusion along the lagoon or the transfer of brackish water to the mouth of the system are the main consequences of EWEs, while the main biogeochemistry changes tend to remain moderate.

scholarly journals Impact of Road Network Topology on Public Transportation Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Minzhi Chen ◽  
Fan Wu ◽  
Min Yin ◽  
Jiangang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Public Transportation ◽  
Road Network ◽  
Road Networks ◽  
Urban Road Network ◽  
Urban Road ◽  
The Road ◽  
Layout Structure ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Transportation Development ◽  
The Impact

Planning of road networks is fundamental for public transportation. The impact of road network density on public transportation has been extensively studied, but few studies in this regard involved evaluation indicators for connectivity and layout of road networks. With 29 cities in China as the study cases, this paper quantifies the layout structure of the road network based on the network’s betweenness centralization and establishes a multivariate linear regression model to perform regression of the logarithm of the frequency of per capita public transportation on betweenness centralization. It is found in the present work that there is a significant correlation between the layout structure of an urban road network and the residents’ utilization degree of public transportation. A greater betweenness centralization of the urban road network, namely a more centralized road network, means a higher frequency of per capita public transportation of urban residents and a higher degree of the residents’ utilization of public transportation. In the development of public transportation, centralized and axial-shaped layout structures of road networks can be promoted to improve the utilization of public transportation.

Evaluating the effect of climate change on snow load on structures

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi ◽  
Francesca Marsili
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Greenhouse Gasses ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Impact

<p>As consequence of global warming extreme weather events might become more frequent and severe across the globe. The evaluation of the impact of climate change on extremes is then a crucial issue for the resilience of infrastructures and buildings and is a key challenge for adaptation planning. In this paper, a suitable procedure for the estimation of future trends of climatic actions is presented starting from the output of regional climate models and taking into account the uncertainty in the model itself. In particular, the influence of climate change on ground snow loads is discussed in detail and the typical uncertainty range is determined applying an innovative algorithm for weather generation. Considering different greenhouse gasses emission scenarios, some results are presented for the Italian Mediterranean region proving the ability of the method to define factors of change for climate extremes also allowing a sound estimate of the uncertainty range associated with different models.</p>

Impact of Climate Change on Rural Livelihood: A Case Study of Central Rajasthan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-27
Author(s):  
Saifuddin Soz ◽  
Dhananjay Mankar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Household Level ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The People ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Rural Livelihood ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is already bringing tremendous influence on people’s lives, particularly the underprivileged. It’s already visible in a variety of ways. In recent decades, Asia and the Pacific have seen consistent warming trends as well as more frequent and powerful extreme weather events such as droughts, cyclones, floods, and hailstorms. This study was done in Ajmer District of Rajasthan, to find out the climate variation in the last 10 years. The study describes the effects due to climate change on the livelihoods of the people, so a descriptive research design was used for the study to find out the impact of climate change on rural livelihood in central Rajasthan. The study is based on a large representative of sample, quantitative data was collected to gain an idea of the impact on the livelihoods due to climate change at the household level. It shows the negative impact of climate change on rural livelihood which forced the people to change their livelihood directly or indirectly. It was found that climate change had an impact on people’s lives and people do understand the variation in climate change in terms of changes in the weather, unseasonal rain, and drought.

The Impact of Climate Change in the Modern Enterprise

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 26-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasios Danos ◽  
Konstantina Boulouta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Weather Patterns ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Modern Enterprise ◽  
The World ◽  
Rising Sea Levels ◽  
The Impact

This article analyses the profound and rapid climate changes that have taken place worldwide in the past two decades and their effects on modern enterprise. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and developing strategies to adapt to and counterbalance future impacts of climate change sustainably are among the most pressing needs of the world today. Global temperatures are predicted to continue rising, bringing changes in weather patterns, rising sea levels, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Such climatic events can have a major impact on households, businesses, critical infrastructure and vulnerable sections of society, as well as having a major economic impact. Therefore, society must prepare to cope with living in a changing climate. The effects of a changing climate have considerable impacts on modern enterprises. In some parts of the world, these impacts are increasingly becoming evident.

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