scholarly journals Future changes to high impact weather in the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen M. Hanlon ◽  
Dan Bernie ◽  
Giulia Carigi ◽  
Jason A. Lowe
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
The Uk

AbstractHigh impact weather events such as extreme temperatures or rainfall can cause significant disruption across the UK affecting sectors such as health, transport, agriculture and energy. In this study we draw on the latest set of UK climate projections, UKCP, to examine metrics relating to high-impact weather over the UK and how these change with different levels of future global warming from 1.5 °C to 4 °C above pre-industrial. The changes to these hazards show increases in the frequency of extremely hot days and nights, with a UK average increase in hot days of between 5 and 39 days per year between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming. Projections indicate an increase in cooling degree days of 134–627% and an increase in growing degree days of 19–60% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming. Extremely hot nights, which are currently rare, are emerging as more common occurrences. The frequency of high daily temperatures and rainfall increase systematically, while the frequency of very cold conditions (based on days where temperatures fall below 0 °C) is shown to decrease by 10 to 49 days per year. A reduction in heating degree days, of 11–32% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming, is projected. Levels of daily rainfall, which currently relate to increased risk of river flooding, are shown to increase across the country, with increases of days with high impact levels of rainfall occurring by 1 to 8 days per year between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming. Average drought severity is projected to increase for 3-, 6-, 12- and 36-month-long droughts. The largest changes in the severity of the 12-month drought are between −3 and +19% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming and for 36-month drought between −2 and +54% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming. The projected future changes in high impact weather from this study will enable the characterization of climate risks and ultimately be able to better inform adaptation planning in different sectors to support the increase in resilience of the UK to future climate variability and change.

scholarly journals Past and future trends in fire weather for the UK

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Charles Perry ◽  
Emilie Vanvyve ◽  
Richard A. Betts ◽  
Erika J. Palin
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Uk

Abstract. Past and future trends in the frequency of high danger fire weather conditions have been analysed for the UK. An analysis of satellite-derived burned area data from the last 18 years has identified the seasonal cycle with a peak in spring and a secondary peak in summer, the high level of interannual variability, and the lack of a significant trend despite some large events occurring in the last few years. These results were confirmed with a longer series of fire weather indices back to 1979. The Initial Spread Index (ISI) has been used for spring, as this reflects the moisture of fine fuel surface vegetation, whereas conditions conducive to summer wildfires are hot, dry weather reflected in the moisture of deeper organic layers which is encompassed in the Fire Weather Index (FWI). Future projections are assessed using an ensemble of regional climate models from the UK Climate Projections, combining variables to derive the fire weather indices. The results show a large increase in hazardous fire weather conditions in summer. At 2 °C global warming relative to 1850–1900, the frequency of days with “very high” fire danger is projected to double compared to a recent historical period. This frequency increases by 5 times at 4 °C of global warming. Smaller increases are projected for spring, with a 150 % increase for England at 2 °C of global warming and a doubling at 4 °C. A particularly large projected increase for late summer and early autumn suggests a possible extension of the wildfire season, depending on fuel availability. These results suggest that wildfire can be considered an “emergent risk” for the UK, as past events have not had widespread major impacts, but this could change in future. The large increase in risk between the 2 °C and 4 °C levels of global warming highlights the importance of global efforts to keep warming below 2 °C.

scholarly journals Resistance of Multiple Diploid and Tetraploid Perennial Ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.) Varieties to Three Projected Drought Scenarios for the UK in 2080

Agronomy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Lee ◽  
Victoria Howard-Andrews ◽  
Michael Chester
Keyword(s):  
Lolium Perenne ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Ploidy Levels ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Lolium Perenne L ◽  
Forage Plants ◽  
New Varieties ◽  
The Uk

Forage plants underpin the livestock industry. Selective breeding, including polyploidization, where genome size is increased by whole genome duplication, changes the productivity and stress tolerance of new varieties. We conducted a growth chamber experiment to investigate the likely responses of Lolium perenne L. to drought, testing four diploid and four tetraploid varieties. We simulated projected spring and summer temperatures for the South-West of England in 2080, applying three projected rainfall scenarios, which varied in drought severity. Drought caused a reduction in productivity, but there was substantial variation between varieties (up to 82%), with the optimal variety changing depending on drought severity. Across three harvests, productivity declined by 43% and 27% (dry biomass) for the severe and likely drought scenarios, respectively. In the final harvest, tetraploids exhibited a greater biomass under severe drought, whereas diploids had a greater biomass under the current rainfall and likely drought scenarios. Longer stomata were observed in tetraploids; however, stomatal conductance was not significantly different between ploidy levels. Trait selection will be important for future drought adaptation. Local climate projections will need to be consulted when selecting L. perenne varieties to tolerate the spatially variable reductions in future rainfall.

scholarly journals Urban warming and future air-conditioning use in an Asian megacity: importance of positive feedback

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuya Takane ◽  
Yukihiro Kikegawa ◽  
Masayuki Hara ◽  
C. Sue B. Grimmond
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Air Conditioning ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Anthropogenic Heat ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Urban Warming ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of feedback between urban warming and air-conditioning (AC) use on temperatures in future urban climates is explored in this study. Pseudo-global warming projections are dynamically downscaled to 1 km using a regional climate model (RCM) coupled to urban canopy and building energy models for current and six future global warming (ΔTGW) climates based on IPCC RCP8.5. Anthropogenic heat emissions from AC use is projected to increase almost linearly with ΔTGW, causing additional urban warming. This feedback on urban warming reaches 20% of ΔTGW in residential areas. This further uncertainty in future projections is comparable in size to that associated with: a selection of emission scenarios, RCMs, and urban planning scenarios. Thus this feedback should not be neglected in future urban climate projections, especially in hot cities with large AC use. The impact of the feedback during the July 2018 Japanese heat waves is calculated to be 0.11 °C.

scholarly journals Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming–driven increase in heavy rainfall.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie Farquharson ◽  
Falk Amelung
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Volcanic Arcs ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Wide Range

Heavy rainfall drives a range of eruptive and noneruptive volcanic hazards; over the Holocene, the incidence of many such hazards has increased due to rapid climate change. Here we show that extreme heavy rainfall is projected to increase with continued global warming throughout the 21st century in most subaerial volcanic regions, dramatically increasing the potential for rainfall-induced volcanic hazards. This result is based on a comparative analysis of nine general circulation models, and is prevalent across a wide range of spatial scales, from countries and volcanic arcs down to individual volcanic systems. Our results suggest that if global warming continues unchecked, the incidence of primary and secondary rainfall-related volcanic activity—such as dome explosions or flank collapse—will increase at more than 700 volcanoes around the globe. Improved coupling between scientific observations—in particular, of local and regional precipitation—and policy decisions, may go some way towards mitigating the increased risk throughout the next 80 years.

Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation over an Urban Agglomeration with Future Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang-Van Doan ◽  
Fei Chen ◽  
Hiroyuki Kusaka ◽  
Anurag Dipankar ◽  
Ansar Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Urban Agglomeration ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Future Global Warming

Using a convection permitting model ensemble for projecting future change in high-impact events

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Kendon ◽  
Giorgia Fosser ◽  
Steven Chan
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Hourly Precipitation ◽  
Realistic Representation ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impact Events

<p>For the first time internationally a model at a resolution on par with operational weather forecast models has been used for national climate scenarios. As part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) project, an ensemble of 12 projections at 2.2km resolution have been carried out over the UK. These were launched in September 2019, with the aim of providing an improved simulation of extreme precipitation and also other high-impact events at local scales for the coming decades. At such high (2.2km) resolution, convection can be represented explicitly (‘permitted’) without the need for a parameterisation scheme, leading to a much more realistic representation of hourly precipitation characteristics, including extremes. In this talk initial results from the UKCP local (2.2km) projections will be presented. This includes new understanding of changes in winter mean precipitation, as well as projected changes in hourly precipitation extremes and the frequency of hot spells. I will also discuss remaining outstanding issues and the future outlook for convective-scale climate modelling.</p>

scholarly journals Socioeconomic Inequalities and Ethnicity Are Associated with a Positive COVID-19 Test among Cancer Patients in the UK Biobank Cohort

Cancers ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1514
Author(s):  
Shing Fung Lee ◽  
Maja Nikšić ◽  
Bernard Rachet ◽  
Maria-Jose Sanchez ◽  
Miguel Angel Luque-Fernandez
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Socioeconomic Inequalities ◽  
Uk Biobank ◽  
Incident Cancer ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Exposure Variable ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Deprived Areas

We explored the role of socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 incidence among cancer patients during the first wave of the pandemic. We conducted a case-control study within the UK Biobank cohort linked to the COVID-19 tests results available from 16 March 2020 until 23 August 2020. The main exposure variable was socioeconomic status, assessed using the Townsend Deprivation Index. Among 18,917 participants with an incident malignancy in the UK Biobank cohort, 89 tested positive for COVID-19. The overall COVID-19 incidence was 4.7 cases per 1000 incident cancer patients (95%CI 3.8–5.8). Compared with the least deprived cancer patients, those living in the most deprived areas had an almost three times higher risk of testing positive (RR 2.6, 95%CI 1.1–5.8). Other independent risk factors were ethnic minority background, obesity, unemployment, smoking, and being diagnosed with a haematological cancer for less than five years. A consistent pattern of socioeconomic inequalities in COVID-19 among incident cancer patients in the UK highlights the need to prioritise the cancer patients living in the most deprived areas in vaccination planning. This socio-demographic profiling of vulnerable cancer patients at increased risk of infection can inform prevention strategies and policy improvements for the coming pandemic waves.

scholarly journals Paediatric rotavirus vaccination, coeliac disease and type 1 diabetes in children: a population-based cohort study

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Inns ◽  
Kate M. Fleming ◽  
Miren Iturriza-Gomara ◽  
Daniel Hungerford
Keyword(s):  
Type 1 Diabetes ◽  
Cohort Study ◽  
Coeliac Disease ◽  
Practice Research ◽  
Clinical Practice Research Datalink ◽  
Rotavirus Vaccine ◽  
Rotavirus Vaccination ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk

Abstract Background Rotavirus infection has been proposed as a risk factor for coeliac disease (CD) and type 1 diabetes (T1D). The UK introduced infant rotavirus vaccination in 2013. We have previously shown that rotavirus vaccination can have beneficial off-target effects on syndromes, such as hospitalised seizures. We therefore investigated whether rotavirus vaccination prevents CD and T1D in the UK. Methods A cohort study of children born between 2010 and 2015 was conducted using primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Children were followed up from 6 months to 7 years old, with censoring for outcome, death or leaving the practice. CD was defined as diagnosis of CD or the prescription of gluten-free goods. T1D was defined as a T1D diagnosis. The exposure was rotavirus vaccination, defined as one or more doses. Mixed-effects Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Models were adjusted for potential confounders and included random intercepts for general practices. Results There were 880,629 children in the cohort (48.8% female). A total of 343,113 (39.0%) participants received rotavirus vaccine; among those born after the introduction of rotavirus vaccination, 93.4% were vaccinated. Study participants contributed 4,388,355 person-years, with median follow-up 5.66 person-years. There were 1657 CD cases, an incidence of 38.0 cases per 100,000 person-years. Compared with unvaccinated children, the adjusted HR for a CD was 1.05 (95% CI 0.86–1.28) for vaccinated children. Females had a 40% higher hazard than males. T1D was recorded for 733 participants, an incidence of 17.1 cases per 100,000 person-years. In adjusted analysis, rotavirus vaccination was not associated with risk of T1D (HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.68–1.19). Conclusions Rotavirus vaccination has reduced diarrhoeal disease morbidity and mortality substantial since licencing in 2006. Our finding from this large cohort study did not provide evidence that rotavirus vaccination prevents CD or T1D, nor is it associated with increased risk, delivering further evidence of rotavirus vaccine safety.

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