scholarly journals Measuring the impact of suspending Umrah, a global mass gathering in Saudi Arabia on the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sultanah M. Alshammari ◽  
Waleed K. Almutiry ◽  
Harsha Gwalani ◽  
Saeed M. Algarni ◽  
Kawther Saeedi
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Travel Restriction ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractSince the early days of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, Saudi Arabia started to implement several preventative measures starting with the imposition of travel restrictions to and from China. Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, and with the first confirmed case in Saudi Arabia in March 2019, more strict measures, such as international travel restriction, and suspension or cancellation of major events, social gatherings, prayers at mosques, and sports competitions, were employed. These non-pharmaceutical interventions aim to reduce the extent of the epidemic due to the implications of international travel and mass gatherings on the increase in the number of new cases locally and globally. Since this ongoing outbreak is the first of its kind in the modern world, the impact of suspending mass gatherings on the outbreak is unknown and difficult to measure. We use a stratified SEIR epidemic model to evaluate the impact of Umrah, a global Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during the month of Ramadan, the peak of the Umrah season. The analyses shown in the paper provide insights into the effects of global mass gatherings such as Hajj and Umrah on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic locally and globally.

scholarly journals Effects of worldwide interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 between waves and countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Ge ◽  
Wenbin Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Liu ◽  
Corrine W Ruktanonchai ◽  
Maogui Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Worldwide governments have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, together with the large-scale rollout of vaccines since late 2020. However, the effect of these individual NPI and vaccination measures across space and time has not been sufficiently explored. By the decay ratio in the suppression of COVID-19 infections, we investigated the performance of different NPIs across waves in 133 countries, and their integration with vaccine rollouts in 63 countries as of 25 March 2021. The most effective NPIs were gathering restrictions (contributing 27.83% in the infection rate reductions), facial coverings (16.79%) and school closures (10.08%) in the first wave, and changed to facial coverings (30.04%), gathering restrictions (17.51%) and international travel restrictions (9.22%) in the second wave. The impact of NPIs had obvious spatiotemporal variations across countries by waves before vaccine rollouts, with facial coverings being one of the most effective measures consistently. Vaccinations had gradually contributed to the suppression of COVID-19 transmission, from 0.71% and 0.86% within 15 days and 30 days since Day 12 after vaccination, to 1.23% as of 25 March 2021, while NPIs still dominated the pandemic mitigation. Our findings have important implications for continued tailoring of integrated NPI or NPI-vaccination strategies against future COVID-19 waves or similar infectious diseases.

scholarly journals The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Chinazzi ◽  
Jessica T. Davis ◽  
Marco Ajelli ◽  
Corrado Gioannini ◽  
Maria Litvinova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Disease Transmission Model ◽  
The Impact

AbstractMotivated by the rapid spread of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of both domestic and international travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the evidence of internationally imported cases before the implementation of the travel quarantine of Wuhan. By assuming a generation time of 7.5 days, the reproduction number is estimated to be 2.4 [90% CI 2.2-2.6]. The median estimate for number of cases before the travel ban implementation on January 23, 2020 is 58,956 [90% CI 40,759 - 87,471] in Wuhan and 3,491 [90% CI 1,924 - 7,360] in other locations in Mainland China. The model shows that as of January 23, most Chinese cities had already received a considerable number of infected cases, and the travel quarantine delays the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days. The travel quarantine has a more marked effect at the international scale, where we estimate the number of case importations to be reduced by 80% until the end of February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

scholarly journals Projecting the impact of behaviour and isolation interventions and super spreader events from mass gatherings and international travel on Malaysia’s COVID-19 epidemic trajectories using an augmented SEIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidonna Jan Ayub ◽  
Gregory Ho Wai Son ◽  
Khayriyyah Mohd Hanafiah
Keyword(s):  
International Travel ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Intervention Effectiveness ◽  
Behavioural Interventions ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundVarious levels of lockdown implemented to contain the rapid spread of COVID-19 are not long-term solutions due to socioeconomic implications.MethodsTo inform safe reopening, we used an augmented SEIR model to project the impact of 1) interventions and potential new epidemic trajectories arising from super spreader (SS) events and/or international travel and 2) re-introducing strong behavioural interventions on resurgence trajectories.ResultsOur model suggests that 50% behaviour intervention effectiveness (BIE) (from enforced social distancing during lockdown, early in the epidemic), along with 50% isolation intervention effectiveness (IIE) (from increased testing and isolating infected individuals) was achieved during lockdown, which curbed COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia. Post-lockdown, BIE plays a minimal role if IIE reaches or exceeds 46.9% when other variables are held constant. At IIE of 30% and BIE of 21.3%, SS events of 5,000 active cases risks COVID-19 resurgence, with 4-year projected 12.9mn cumulative cases and 1.1mn deaths. Earlier action to increase BIE to 50% on day 98 compared to day 111, prevented an additional 21,401 recovered cases and 257 deaths.ConclusionUntil a safe and effective vaccine is widely available, the risk of COVID-19 resurgence from large SS events warrants caution in decisions to allow for mass gatherings and regular international travel.

scholarly journals Effects of worldwide interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 between waves and countries

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Ge ◽  
Wenbin Zhang ◽  
Haiyan Liu ◽  
Corrine W Ruktanonchai ◽  
Maogui Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Worldwide governments have rapidly deployed non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, together with the large-scale rollout of vaccines since late 2020. However, the effect of these individual NPI and vaccination measures across space and time has not been sufficiently explored. By the decay ratio in the suppression of COVID-19 infections, we investigated the performance of different NPIs across waves in 133 countries, and their integration with vaccine rollouts in 63 countries as of 25 March 2021. The most effective NPIs were gathering restrictions (contributing 27.83% in the infection rate reductions), facial coverings (16.79%) and school closures (10.08%) in the first wave, and changed to facial coverings (30.04%), gathering restrictions (17.51%) and international travel restrictions (9.22%) in the second wave. The impact of NPIs had obvious spatiotemporal variations across countries by waves before vaccine rollouts, with facial coverings being one of the most effective measures consistently. Vaccinations had gradually contributed to the suppression of COVID-19 transmission, from 0.71% and 0.86% within 15 days and 30 days since Day 12 after vaccination, to 1.23% as of 25 March 2021, while NPIs still dominated the pandemic mitigation. Our findings have important implications for continued tailoring of integrated NPI or NPI-vaccination strategies against future COVID-19 waves or similar infectious diseases.

scholarly journals UNWTO World Tourism Barometer and Statistical Annex, October 2020

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1-36 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
The European Union ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Slow Virus ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Main Barrier ◽  
The Impact

International travel plunges 70% in the first eight months of 2020 International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) declined 70% in the first eight months of 2020 over the same period of last year, amid global travel restrictions including many borders fully closed, to contain the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. International arrivals plunged 81% in July and 79% in August, traditionally the two busiest months of the year and the peak of the Northern Hemisphere summer season. Despite such large declines, this represents a relative improvement over the 90% or greater decreases of the previous months, as some destinations started to reopen to international tourism, mostly in the European Union. The decline in January-August 2020 represents 700 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 730 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 8 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic, saw a 79% decrease in arrivals in January-August 2020. Africa and the Middle East both recorded a 69% drop this eight-month period, while Europe saw a 68% decline and the Americas 65%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel, though in several large markets such as the United States, Germany and Italy there is a small uptick in spending in the months of July and August. Based on latest trends, a 75% decrease in international arrivals is estimated for the month of September and a drop of close to 70% for the whole of 2020. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism is strengthening recovery in several large markets such as China and Russia. The UNWTO Confidence Index continues at record lows. Most UNWTO Panel Experts expect a rebound in international tourism by the third quarter of 2021 and a return to pre-pandemic 2019 levels not before 2023. Experts consider travel restrictions as the main barrier weighing on the recovery of international tourism, along with slow virus containment and low consumer confidence.

COVID-19 Border Closures: A Violation of Non-Refoulement Obligations in International Refugee and Human Rights Law?

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 32-48
Author(s):  
Kate Ogg ◽  
Chanelle Taoi
Keyword(s):  
Human Rights ◽  
International Law ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Legal Analysis ◽  
Human Rights Law ◽  
Refugee Protection ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Border Policy ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Travel Restriction

Abstract COVID-19 has presented a number of challenges for the international refugee protection regime. An issue that has received little attention is the relationship between states tightening their borders in an effort to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and their non-refoulement obligations. This raises the question of how international law responds when non-refoulement obligations may conflict with other international human rights such as the rights to life and health. Further, the legal analysis of whether a particular COVID-19 border policy is in violation of non-refoulement obligations must take into account how the travel restriction will be implemented. This article provides an overarching analysis of non-refoulement provisions in international refugee and human rights law and which COVID-19 international travel restrictions may be in breach of these obligations. We examine different types of COVID-19 travel restrictions and argue that many are undoubtedly violations of non-refoulement, but others raise unsettled questions of international law. Nevertheless, there is jurisprudence and scholarship to support the proposition that a state’s non-refoulement obligations can be triggered even in these more contested scenarios.

Effects of the reduction of aircraft noise emission due to the travel restriction during the COVID-19 pandemic at residential areas around Tan Son Nhat Airport

2021 ◽  
Vol 263 (1) ◽  
pp. 5114-5124
Author(s):  
Thulan Nguyen ◽  
Tran Thi Hong Nhung Nguyen ◽  
Bach Lien Trieu ◽  
Makoto Morinaga ◽  
Yasuhiro Hiraguri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Aircraft Noise ◽  
Residential Areas ◽  
Noise Levels ◽  
Noise Emission ◽  
Acoustic Environment ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Travel Restriction

The travel restrictions caused by the epidemic outbreak in early 2020 worldwide have caused many changes in all aspects of life, especially in the acoustic environment. This study examines the impact of this environmental change at Tan Son Nhat International Airport (TSN), the largest airport in Vietnam, by comparing the situations before and after the airport stopped operating all international flights in March 2020. The after-the-change survey was conducted in 2 phases, June and September 2020, three months and six months after the stop decision. The number of flights observed in August 2019 was 728; this number is 413 and 299 for the two surveys in 2020. The range of noise levels estimated for 12 sites around TSN decreased from 63-81 dB in 2019 to 32-67 dB in June 2020 and 33-69 dB in September 2020. At the same aircraft noise level, the percentage of highly annoyed (% HA) and the percentage of insomnia (%ISM) in the 2020 survey are higher than those in the 2019 survey. The comparison results of reaction to noise before and after the TSN's noise change indicated an increase in negative responses to noise might happen in the increased noise and reduced noise situation.

scholarly journals ЮНВТО Всемирная туристская Барометр, и статистическое приложение Обновленная информация, Декабрь 2020 года

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Travel ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

International tourism expected to decline over 70% in 2020, back to levels of 30 years ago International tourist arrivals (overnight visitors) fell by 72% in January-October 2020 over the same period last year, curbed by slow virus containment, low traveller confidence and important restrictions on travel still in place, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline in the first ten months of the year represents 900 million fewer international tourist arrivals compared to the same period in 2019, and translates into a loss of US$ 935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, more than 10 times the loss in 2009 under the impact of the global economic crisis. Asia and the Pacific saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in January-October 2020. The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop this ten-month period. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%. Data on international tourism expenditure continues to reflect very weak demand for outbound travel. However, some large markets such as the United States, Germany and France have shown some shy signs of recovery in the recent months. While demand for international travel remains subdued, domestic tourism continues to grow in several large markets such as China and Russia, where domestic air travel demand has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels. Based on current trends, UNWTO expects international arrivals to decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020. This would mean that international tourism could have returned to levels of 30 years ago. The estimated decline in internationals tourism in 2020 is equivalent to a loss of about 1 billion arrivals and US$ 1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts. This plunge in international tourism could result in an estimated economic loss of over US$ 2 trillion in global GDP, more than 2% of the world’s GDP in 2019. Looking ahead, the announcement and the roll-out of a vaccine are expected to gradually increase consumer confidence and contribute to ease travel restrictions. UNWTO’s extended scenarios for 2021-2024 point to a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021. Nonetheless, a return to 2019 levels in terms of international arrivals could take 2½ to 4 years.

scholarly journals Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe in 2020: a quasi-experimental non-equivalent group and time series design study

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (28) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R Hunter ◽  
Felipe J Colón-González ◽  
Julii Brainard ◽  
Steven Rushton
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
At Home

Introduction The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a considerable halt on the economic and social life of so many countries. Aim We aimed to generate empirical evidence about which social distancing measures had the most impact in reducing case counts and mortality. Methods We report a quasi-experimental (observational) study of the impact of various interventions for control of the outbreak through 24 April 2020. Chronological data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our complementary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models and in STATA using multilevel mixed-effects regression models. Results From both sets of modelling, we found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay-at-home orders and closure of additional non-essential businesses was not associated with any independent additional impact. Conclusions Our findings are that schools and some non-essential businesses operating ‘as normal’ as well as allowing mass gatherings were incompatible with suppressing disease spread. Closure of all businesses and stay at home orders are less likely to be required to keep disease incidence low. Our results help identify what were the most effective non-pharmaceutical interventions in this period.

scholarly journals Music industry in crisis: The impact of a novel coronavirus on touring metal bands, promoters, and venues

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle J. Messick
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Interviews ◽  
Music Industry ◽  
The United States ◽  
Metal Music ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
Live Music ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Financial Losses

In March of 2020 the world began to take widespread preventative measures against the spread of a novel coronavirus through travel restrictions, quarantines, and limitations on group gatherings. These restrictions resulted in the immediate closing of many businesses, including concerts venues, and also put an abrupt end to live music performances across Europe and the United States. This had immediate implications for touring bands, as bands earn most of their income touring, and many found themselves in a situation where they experienced substantial financial losses alongside negative affective ramifications. This article utilized evidence from qualitative interviews and public statements to draw inferences about the impact of COVID-19 on the music industry, with a particular focus on touring musicians and their respective managers, promoters, booking agencies, and record labels. Musicians reported negative affective and financial ramifications as a result of COVID-19, but they also reported overwhelming support from metal music fans that made the fallout from the pandemic less severe.

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