scholarly journals Projecting the impact of behaviour and isolation interventions and super spreader events from mass gatherings and international travel on Malaysia’s COVID-19 epidemic trajectories using an augmented SEIR model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidonna Jan Ayub ◽  
Gregory Ho Wai Son ◽  
Khayriyyah Mohd Hanafiah
Keyword(s):  
International Travel ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Intervention Effectiveness ◽  
Behavioural Interventions ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundVarious levels of lockdown implemented to contain the rapid spread of COVID-19 are not long-term solutions due to socioeconomic implications.MethodsTo inform safe reopening, we used an augmented SEIR model to project the impact of 1) interventions and potential new epidemic trajectories arising from super spreader (SS) events and/or international travel and 2) re-introducing strong behavioural interventions on resurgence trajectories.ResultsOur model suggests that 50% behaviour intervention effectiveness (BIE) (from enforced social distancing during lockdown, early in the epidemic), along with 50% isolation intervention effectiveness (IIE) (from increased testing and isolating infected individuals) was achieved during lockdown, which curbed COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia. Post-lockdown, BIE plays a minimal role if IIE reaches or exceeds 46.9% when other variables are held constant. At IIE of 30% and BIE of 21.3%, SS events of 5,000 active cases risks COVID-19 resurgence, with 4-year projected 12.9mn cumulative cases and 1.1mn deaths. Earlier action to increase BIE to 50% on day 98 compared to day 111, prevented an additional 21,401 recovered cases and 257 deaths.ConclusionUntil a safe and effective vaccine is widely available, the risk of COVID-19 resurgence from large SS events warrants caution in decisions to allow for mass gatherings and regular international travel.

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of suspending Umrah, a global mass gathering in Saudi Arabia on the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sultanah M. Alshammari ◽  
Waleed K. Almutiry ◽  
Harsha Gwalani ◽  
Saeed M. Algarni ◽  
Kawther Saeedi
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Travel Restriction ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractSince the early days of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China, Saudi Arabia started to implement several preventative measures starting with the imposition of travel restrictions to and from China. Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19, and with the first confirmed case in Saudi Arabia in March 2019, more strict measures, such as international travel restriction, and suspension or cancellation of major events, social gatherings, prayers at mosques, and sports competitions, were employed. These non-pharmaceutical interventions aim to reduce the extent of the epidemic due to the implications of international travel and mass gatherings on the increase in the number of new cases locally and globally. Since this ongoing outbreak is the first of its kind in the modern world, the impact of suspending mass gatherings on the outbreak is unknown and difficult to measure. We use a stratified SEIR epidemic model to evaluate the impact of Umrah, a global Muslim pilgrimage to Mecca, on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic during the month of Ramadan, the peak of the Umrah season. The analyses shown in the paper provide insights into the effects of global mass gatherings such as Hajj and Umrah on the progression of the COVID-19 pandemic locally and globally.

Only vaccines or drugs will end social distancing

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Travel ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
London School ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Unemployed ◽  
The Impact

Significance Studies currently estimate that only a small fraction of people were infected prior to strict social-distancing enforcement. A major second wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths is likely if countries exit lockdowns without strategies to reduce transmissibility of the virus. However, policymakers have few tried-and-tested strategies to fall upon as the situation is unprecedented. Researchers are now rushing to produce models to estimate the impact of epidemic mitigation strategies while they wait for more data. Impacts A new London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine platform, pooling worldwide interventions, could help clarify intervention effects. Long-term social distancing will particularly harm the wellbeing of the unemployed, self-employed and elderly in particular. Continued remote working or cyclical return to work will help moderate demand on healthcare capacity in the medium term. International travel restrictions will have a lasting impact on the travel and tourism sectors.

scholarly journals Bayesian small-area modelling of COVID-19 cases and deaths in England and association with key risk factors: a combined space–time Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benn Sartorius ◽  
Andrew Lawson ◽  
Rachel L. Pullan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Small Area ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave

Abstract Background: COVID-19 caseloads in England appear have passed through a first peak, with evidence of an emerging second wave. To ensure continued response to the epidemic is most effective, it is imperative to better understand both retrospectively and prospectively the geographical evolution of COVID-19 caseloads and deaths, identify localised areas in space-time at significantly higher risk, quantify the impact of changes in localised population mobility (or movement) on caseloads, identify localised risk factors for increased mortality and project the likely course of the epidemic at small-area resolution in coming weeks.Methods: We applied a Bayesian space–time SEIR model to assess the spatiotemporal variability of COVID-19 caseloads (transmission) and deaths at small-area scale in England (Middle Layer Super Output Area [MSOA], 6791 units) and by week (using observed data from week 5 to 34), including key determinants, the modelled transmission dynamics and spatial-temporal random effects. We also estimate the number of cases and deaths at small-area resolution with uncertainty projected forward in time by MSOA (up to week 51 of 2020), the impact mobility reductions (and subsequent easing) have had on COVID-19 caseloads and quantify the impact of key socio-demographic risk factors on COVID-19 related mortality risk by MSOA.Results: Reductions in population mobility due the course of the first lockdown had a significant impact on the reduction of COVID-19 caseloads across England, however local authorities have had a varied rate of reduction in population movement which our model suggest has substantially impacted the geographic heterogeneity in caseloads at small-area scale. The steady gain in population mobility, observed from late April, appears to have contributed to a slowdown in caseload reductions towards late June and subsequent steady increase signalling the start of the second wave. MSOA with higher proportions of elderly (70+ years of age) and elderly living in deprivation, both with very distinct geographic distributions, have a significantly elevated COVID-19 mortality rates.Conclusions: While non-pharmaceutical interventions (that is, reductions in population mobility and social distancing) had a profound impact on the trajectory of the first wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in England, increased population mobility appears to have contributed to the current increase signalling the start of the second wave. A number of contiguous small-areas appear to be at a significant elevated risk of high COVID-19 transmission, many of which are also at increased risk for higher mortality rates. A geographically staggered re-introduction of intensified social distancing measures is advised and limited cross MSOA movement if the magnitude and geographic extent of the second wave is to be reduced.

scholarly journals The price of the lockdown: The effects of social distancing on the Indian economy and business during the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-99
Author(s):  
Hasnan Baber ◽  
Rao Tripati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Business Activity ◽  
Religious Activities ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The decision on immediate lockdown in India put economic, social and religious activities to a grinding halt. The paper examines the impact of the lockdown and social distancing policies on economic activities in India, using a multivariate econometric model for the data collected in the period from 1st January to 31st August 2020. While the social distancing policy is captured in terms of internal movement, domestic travel and international travel restrictions, its effect on the economic activity and the business activity is captured through stock prices, purchasing managers' index and the exchange rate. Confirmed COVID-19 cases and related deaths are also used as the independent variables. The results reveal a significant negative impact of social distancing policies on the economic activity and the business activity, the stock market and the exchange rate. Furthermore, the economic stimulus provided by the Government could not bring a positive influence on the stock market.

scholarly journals Domestic and international mobility trends in the United Kingdom during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of facebook data

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry E. R. Shepherd ◽  
Florence S. Atherden ◽  
Ho Man Theophilus Chan ◽  
Alexandra Loveridge ◽  
Andrew J. Tatem
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
International Mobility ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies, future pandemic planning and in providing broader insights on the population geography of the country. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying in near-real time the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods Here we explore patterns of change in densities, domestic and international flows and co-location of Facebook users in the UK from March 2020 to March 2021. Results We find substantial heterogeneities across time and region, with large changes observed compared to pre-pademic patterns. The impacts of periods of lockdown on distances travelled and flow volumes are evident, with each showing variations, but some significant reductions in co-location rates. Clear differences in multiple metrics of mobility are seen in central London compared to the rest of the UK, with each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showing significant deviations from England at times. Moreover, the impacts of rapid changes in rules on international travel to and from the UK are seen in substantial fluctuations in traveller volumes by destination. Conclusions While questions remain about the representativeness of the Facebook data, previous studies have shown strong correspondence with census-based data and alternative mobility measures, suggesting that findings here are valuable for guiding strategies.

The impact of COVID-19 on residents, relatives and staff in care homes

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (9) ◽  
pp. 1-2
Author(s):  
Adrian Ashurst
Keyword(s):  
Care Homes ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

We are now only beginning to realise the long-term implications of living alongside COVID-19. Adrian Ashurst investigates the impact of social distancing guidelines and restricted visitation

scholarly journals Respiratory patient experience of measures to reduce risk of COVID-19: findings from a descriptive cross-sectional UK wide survey

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. e040951 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keir Philip ◽  
Andrew Cumella ◽  
Joe Farrington-Douglas ◽  
Michael Laffan ◽  
Nicholas Hopkinson
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Social Consequences ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Pulmonary Endometriosis ◽  
Reduce Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Respiratory Conditions

ObjectivesTo assess the experience of people with long-term respiratory conditions regarding the impact of measures to reduce risk of COVID-19.DesignAnalysis of data (n=9515) from the Asthma UK and British Lung Foundation partnership COVID-19 survey collected online between 1 and 8 April 2020.SettingCommunity.Participants9515 people with self-reported long-term respiratory conditions. 81% female, age ranges from ≤17 years to 80 years and above, from all nations of the UK. Long-term respiratory conditions reported included asthma (83%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (10%), bronchiectasis (4%), interstitial lung disease (2%) and ‘other’ (<1%) (eg, lung cancer and pulmonary endometriosis).Outcome measuresStudy responses related to impacts on key elements of healthcare, as well as practical, psychological and social consequences related to the COVID-19 pandemic and social distancing measures.Results45% reported disruptions to care, including cancellations of appointments, investigations, pulmonary rehabilitation, treatment and monitoring. Other practical impacts such as difficulty accessing healthcare services for other issues and getting basic necessities such as food were also common. 36% did not use online prescriptions, and 54% had not accessed online inhaler technique videos. Psychosocial impacts including anxiety, loneliness and concerns about personal health and family were prevalent. 81% reported engaging in physical activity. Among the 11% who were smokers, 48% reported they were planning to quit smoking because of COVID-19.ConclusionsCOVID-19 and related social distancing measures are having profound impacts on people with chronic respiratory conditions. Urgent adaptation and signposting of services is required to mitigate the negative health consequences of the COVID-19 response for this group.

scholarly journals Dynamical SPQEIR model assesses the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Proverbio ◽  
Françoise Kemp ◽  
Stefano Magni ◽  
Andreas Husch ◽  
Atte Aalto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Online Tool ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractAgainst the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to suppress it, but the efficacy of distinct measures is not yet well quantified. In this paper, we propose a novel tool to achieve this quantification. In fact, this paper develops a new extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions, to assess the value of several suppression approaches. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of suppression parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model on data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lock-down is an effective pandemic suppression measure, a combination of social distancing and contact tracing can achieve similar suppression synergistically. This quantitative understanding will support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model.

scholarly journals Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in Europe in 2020: a quasi-experimental non-equivalent group and time series design study

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (28) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul R Hunter ◽  
Felipe J Colón-González ◽  
Julii Brainard ◽  
Steven Rushton
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
At Home

Introduction The current pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is unparalleled in recent history as are the social distancing interventions that have led to a considerable halt on the economic and social life of so many countries. Aim We aimed to generate empirical evidence about which social distancing measures had the most impact in reducing case counts and mortality. Methods We report a quasi-experimental (observational) study of the impact of various interventions for control of the outbreak through 24 April 2020. Chronological data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our complementary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models and in STATA using multilevel mixed-effects regression models. Results From both sets of modelling, we found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay-at-home orders and closure of additional non-essential businesses was not associated with any independent additional impact. Conclusions Our findings are that schools and some non-essential businesses operating ‘as normal’ as well as allowing mass gatherings were incompatible with suppressing disease spread. Closure of all businesses and stay at home orders are less likely to be required to keep disease incidence low. Our results help identify what were the most effective non-pharmaceutical interventions in this period.

scholarly journals The impact of early social distancing at COVID-19 Outbreak in the largest Metropolitan Area of Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiana Ganem ◽  
Fabio Macedo Mendes ◽  
Silvano Barbosa de Oliveira ◽  
Victor Bertollo Gomes Porto ◽  
Wildo Navegantes de Araújo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWe calculated the impact of early social distancing on the COVID-19 transmission in the São Paulo metropolitan area and forecasted the ICU beds needed to cope the epidemic demand by using an age-stratified SEIR model. Within 60 days, these measures would avoid 89,133 deaths.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document