Climate change–induced variations in future extreme precipitation intensity–duration–frequency in flood-prone city of Adama, central Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 193 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dejene Tesema Bulti ◽  
Birhanu Girma Abebe ◽  
Zelalem Biru
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Central Ethiopia ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency

scholarly journals Machine Learning for Projecting Extreme Precipitation Intensity for Short Durations in a Changing Climate

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 209
Author(s):  
Huiling Hu ◽  
Bilal M. Ayyub
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
Drainage Systems ◽  
Idf Curves ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency

Climate change is one of the prominent factors that causes an increased severity of extreme precipitation which, in turn, has a huge impact on drainage systems by means of flooding. Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves play an essential role in designing robust drainage systems against extreme precipitation. It is important to incorporate the potential threat from climate change into the computation of IDF curves. Most existing works that have achieved this goal were based on Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analysis combined with various circulation model simulations. Inspired by recent works that used machine learning algorithms for spatial downscaling, this paper proposes an alternative method to perform projections of precipitation intensity over short durations using machine learning. The method is based on temporal downscaling, a downscaling procedure performed over the time scale instead of the spatial scale. The method is trained and validated using data from around two thousand stations in the US. Future projection of IDF curves is calculated and discussed.

Comparative Analysis or Precipitation Variation Characteristics between Subtropical Monsoon Climate and Temperate Monsoon Climate-Take Changsha and Chengde for Example

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1113-1122
Author(s):  
Bo Chen ◽  
Shi-jun Xu ◽  
Xin-ping Zhang ◽  
Yi Xie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Average Precipitation ◽  
Autumn And Winter ◽  
Average Annual Precipitation

Using the methods of literature review, regression analysis and moving average, this paper selects the daily precipitation of Changsha and Chengde from 1951 to 1986 as samples, and analyzes the average precipitation, precipitation frequency, precipitation intensity, extreme precipitation time and other indicators of Changsha and Chengde from the perspective of interannual and seasonal changes Trends. The researches show that: the average precipitation of Changsha in the 36 years is 1151.2mm, spring is the wet season, autumn and winter are the dry seasons, and the maximum average precipitation is in spring; the average annual precipitation, precipitation frequency in spring, summer and winter, annual precipitation frequency, annual precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation events show a decreasing trend. The average annual precipitation of Chengde city is 454.1 mm, wet season in summer and dry season in spring, autumn and winter; the average annual precipitation, precipitation in four seasons, annual precipitation frequency, precipitation frequency in spring, autumn and winter, annual precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation events show a decreasing trend, while the precipitation frequency in summer shows an increasing trend. The study of regional climate change based on the time series data of this stage is of great significance to comprehensively understand the law of regional climate change and predict the future trend of climate change.

scholarly journals Why increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water security

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (11) ◽  
pp. 5935-5946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joris P. C. Eekhout ◽  
Johannes E. Hunink ◽  
Wilco Terink ◽  
Joris de Vente
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An increase in extreme precipitation is projected for many areas worldwide in the coming decades. To assess the impact of increased precipitation intensity on water security, we applied a regional-scale hydrological and soil erosion model, forced with regional climate model projections. We specifically considered the impact of climate change on the distribution of water between soil (green water) and surface water (blue water) compartments. We show that an increase in precipitation intensity leads to a redistribution of water within the catchment, where water storage in soil decreases and reservoir inflow increases. This affects plant water stress and the potential of rainfed versus irrigated agriculture, and increases dependency on reservoir storage, which is potentially threatened by increased soil erosion. This study demonstrates the crucial importance of accounting for the fact that increased precipitation intensity leads to water redistribution between green and blue water, increased soil erosion, and reduced water security. Ultimately, this has implications for design of climate change adaptation measures, which should aim to increase the water holding capacity of the soil (green water) and to maintain the storage capacity of reservoirs (blue water), benefiting rainfed and irrigated agriculture.

scholarly journals Why increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water security

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joris P. C. Eekhout ◽  
Johannes E. Hunink ◽  
Wilco Terink ◽  
Joris de Vente
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An increase of extreme precipitation is projected for many areas worldwide in the coming decades. To assess the impact of increased precipitation intensity on water security, we applied a regional scale hydrological and soil erosion model, forced with Regional Climate Model projections. We specifically considered the impact of climate change on the distribution of water between soil (green water) and surface water (blue water) compartments. We show that an increase in precipitation intensity leads to a redistribution of water within the catchment, where water storage in soil decreases and reservoir inflow increases. This affects plant water stress and the potential of rainfed versus irrigated agriculture, and increases dependency on reservoir storage, that is increasingly threatened by an increase of soil erosion. This study demonstrates the crucial importance of accounting for the fact that increased precipitation intensity leads to water redistribution between green and blue water, increased soil erosion, and reduced water security.

scholarly journals Temporal change of extreme precipitation intensity–duration–frequency relationships in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Yamoat ◽  
R. Hanchoowong ◽  
S. Sriboonlue ◽  
A. Kangrang
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Intensity ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Idf Curves ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency

Abstract Due to climate change, many research studies have derived the updated extreme precipitation intensity–duration–frequency relationship (IDF curve) from forecasted sub-hourly rainfall intensity time series, which is one of the most important tools for the planning and designing of hydraulic infrastructures. In this study, the IDF curves (1990–2016) of the six regions and procedures are used in accordance with those of the Royal Irrigation Department (RID)’s study (1950–1988). Each set of IDF relationships consists of 81 intensity values which are the combination of nine durations and nine return periods. The intensity ratios of this study and RID are compared. A greater-than-1 ratio indicates extreme intensity increment from the past to the present. Considering 81 ratios for each region, the number of greater-than-1 ratios for the North, Northeast, Central, East, West, and South regions are 8, 2, 31, 34, 6, and 7, respectively. These ratio numbers are far below 81 which means that the majority of extreme rainfall intensities do not increase from the past to the present. The study found that using accurate historical sub-hourly rainfall time series to create a set of IDF curves would be more reliable than using forecasted rainfall modeling.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

The effect of climate change on urban drainage: an evaluation based on regional climate model simulations

2006 ◽  
Vol 54 (6-7) ◽  
pp. 9-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Grum ◽  
A.T. Jørgensen ◽  
R.M. Johansen ◽  
J.J. Linde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Rainfall Extremes ◽  
The Future ◽  
Precipitation Events

That we are in a period of extraordinary rates of climate change is today evident. These climate changes are likely to impact local weather conditions with direct impacts on precipitation patterns and urban drainage. In recent years several studies have focused on revealing the nature, extent and consequences of climate change on urban drainage and urban runoff pollution issues. This study uses predictions from a regional climate model to look at the effects of climate change on extreme precipitation events. Results are presented in terms of point rainfall extremes. The analysis involves three steps: Firstly, hourly rainfall intensities from 16 point rain gauges are averaged to create a rain gauge equivalent intensity for a 25 × 25 km square corresponding to one grid cell in the climate model. Secondly, the differences between present and future in the climate model is used to project the hourly extreme statistics of the rain gauge surface into the future. Thirdly, the future extremes of the square surface area are downscaled to give point rainfall extremes of the future. The results and conclusions rely heavily on the regional model's suitability in describing extremes at time-scales relevant to urban drainage. However, in spite of these uncertainties, and others raised in the discussion, the tendency is clear: extreme precipitation events effecting urban drainage and causing flooding will become more frequent as a result of climate change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document