scholarly journals Spatio-temporal characteristics and control strategies in the early period of COVID-19 spread: a case study of the mainland China

Author(s):  
Jiachen Ning ◽  
Yuhan Chu ◽  
Xixi Liu ◽  
Daojun Zhang ◽  
Jinting Zhang ◽  
...  
Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 120
Author(s):  
Haoran Zhai ◽  
Jiaqi Yao ◽  
Guanghui Wang ◽  
Xinming Tang

Based on measurement data from air quality monitoring stations, the spatio-temporal characteristics of the concentrations of particles with aerodynamic equivalent diameters smaller than 2.5 and 10 μm (PM2.5 and PM10, respectively) in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region from 2015 to 2018 were analysed at yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily and hourly scales. The results indicated that (1) from 2015 to 2018, the annual average values of PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations and the PM2.5/PM10 ratio in the study area decreased each year; (2) the particulate matter (PM) concentration in winter was significantly higher than that in summer, and the PM2.5/PM10 ratio was highest in winter and lowest in spring; (3) the PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations exhibited a pattern of double peaks and valleys throughout the day, reaching peak values at night and in the morning and valleys in the morning and afternoon; and (4) with the use of an improved sine function to simulate the change trend of the monthly mean PM concentration, the fitting R2 values for PM2.5 and PM10 in the whole study area were 0.74 and 0.58, respectively. Moreover, the high-value duration was shorter, the low-value duration was longer, and the concentration decrease rate was slower than the increase rate.


Author(s):  
Xiang-Sha Kong ◽  
Feng Liu ◽  
Hai-Bo Wang ◽  
Rui-Feng Yang ◽  
Dong-Bo Chen ◽  
...  

AbstractAt the end of 2019, an outbreak of unknown pathogen pneumonia occurred in China, then it was named corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19). With the rapid spread of COVID-19, a series of strict prevention and control measures were implemented to cut the spread of the epidemic. Influenza as a respiratory tract infection disease as COVID-19 might also be controlled. To assess the effects, we used the total passenger numbers sent in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and the daily number of railway passenger (DNRP) flow in 2020 during Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and further to analyze newly and cumulative confirmed COVID-19 and influenza. We found that with implementing the series measures on COVID-19, not only COVID-19, but also influenza mitigated in China. The prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used in controlling respiratory tract diseases, and reducing the national health economic burden. When other countries issue measures on COVID-19 and influenza, they should consider adopting more aggressive epidemic prevention and control strategies.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chittaranjan Mondal ◽  
Debadatta Adak ◽  
Abhijit Majumder ◽  
Nandadulal Bairagi

The Covid-19 pandemic has put the world under immeasurable stress. There is no specific drug or vaccine that can cure the infection or protect people from the infection of coronavirus. It is therefore prudent to use the existing resources and control strategies in an optimal way to contain the virus spread and provide the best possible treatments to the infected individuals. Use of the repurposing drugs along with the non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies may be the right way for fighting against the ongoing pandemic. It is the objective of this work to demonstrate through mathematical modelling and analysis how and to what extent such control strategies can improve the overall Covid-19 epidemic burden. The criteria for disease elimination & persistence were established through the basic reproduction number. A case study with the Indian Covid-19 epidemic data is presented to visualize and illustrate the effects of lockdown, maintaining personal hygiene & safe distancing, and repurposing drugs. It is shown that India can significantly improve the overall Covid-19 epidemic burden through the combined use of NPIs and repurposing drugs though containment of spreading is difficult without serious community participation.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Lin ◽  
Weihao Huang ◽  
Muchen Wen ◽  
Shuyi Ma ◽  
Jiawen Hua ◽  
...  

AbstractThe novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread globally and the meteorological factors vary greatly across the world. Understanding the effect of meteorological factors and control strategies on COVID-19 transmission is critical to contain the epidemic. Using individual-level data in mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and the number of confirmed cases in other regions, we explore the effect of temperature, relative humidity, and control measures on the spread of COVID-19. We found that high temperature mitigates the transmission of the disease. High relative humidity promotes COVID-19 transmission when temperature is low, but tends to reduce transmission when temperature is high. Implementing classical control measures can dramatically slow the spread of the disease. However, due to the occurrence of pre-symptomatic infections, the effect of the measures to shorten onset-to-isolation time is markedly reduced and the importance of contact tracing and quarantine and social distancing increases. The analytic results also highlight the importance of early intervention to contain the spread of COVID-19.


1998 ◽  
Vol 353 (1378) ◽  
pp. 2153-2162 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. A. N. Filipe ◽  
G. J. Gibson

A class of simple spatio–temporal stochastic models for the spread and control of plant disease is investigated. We consider a lattice–based susceptible–infected model in which the infection of a host occurs through two distinct processes: a background infective challenge representing primary infection from external sources, and a short–range interaction representing the secondary infection of susceptibles by infectives within the population. Recent data–modelling studies have suggested that the above model may describe the spread of aphid–borne virus diseases in orchards. In addition, we extend the model to represent the effects of different control strategies involving replantation (or recovery). The Contact Process is a particular case of this model. The behaviour of the model has been studied using Cellular–Automata simulations. An alternative approach is to formulate a set of deterministic differential equations that captures the essential dynamics of the stochastic system. Approximate solutions to this set of equations, describing the time evolution over the whole parameter range, have been obtained using the pairwise approximation (PA) as well as the most commonly used mean–field approximation (MF). Comparison with simulation results shows that PA is significantly superior to MF, predicting accurately both transient and long–run, stationary behaviour over relevant parts of the parameter space. The conditions for the validity of the approximations to the present model and extensions thereof are discussed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Nahye Cho ◽  
Youngok Kang

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In this study, we visualized and analyzed log data in order to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of “moving” and “staying activities”. As a case study, we collected and preprocessed GPS log data generated by students participating in field activities. STP (Space-Time Path) was used to visualize movement logs. “Movement” and staying places were distinguished through density-based clustering, and the time “stayed” and activities performed at staying places were examined. The problem of over-measuring time at some staying places was examined. To resolve this, the 3D Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Application with Noise (DBSCAN) was used to more accurately measure the time spent at staying places. We propose 3D DBSCAN as methodology to accurately measure spatiotemporal data. We believe this method will remain effective even as this data becomes more numerous.</p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Bertacchini ◽  
Eleonora Bilotta ◽  
Pietro S. Pantano

The behaviour of SARS-CoV-2 virus is certainly one of the most challenging in contemporary world. Although the mathematical modelling of the virus has made relevant contributions, the unpredictable behaviour of the virus is still not fully understood. To identify some aspects of the virus elusive behaviour, we focused on the temporal characteristics of its course. We have analysed the latency trends the virus has realized worldwide, the outbreak of the hot spots, and the decreasing trends of the pandemic. We found that the spatio-temporal pandemic dynamics shows a power law distribution. As with physical systems, these changes in the pandemic's course, which we have called transitional stages of contagion, highlight shared characteristics in many countries. The main results of this work is that the pandemic progression rhythms have been clearly identified for each country, providing the processes and the stages at which the virus develops, thus giving important information on the activation of containment and control measures.


Author(s):  
Raffaella Sette

The on-line course on criminological topics carried out in an undergraduate course for “Security and Social Control Operators” (Faculty of Political Science “Ruffilli”, University of Bologna) represented a real challenge for three different reasons: 1) it was inserted in the syllabus of a three year undergraduate course which was the first university course in Italy intended for the training of operators to carry out an activity which calls for being able to manage modern investigative, security and control strategies; 2) it dealt with the teaching of criminology and it is useful to emphasise that, in Italy, criminology has a difficult time freeing itself from similar disciplines (legal medicine, criminal law, sociology, psychology), even while knowing that it has to maintain a good relationship with them; and 3) it dealt with one of the first on-line courses activated at the Faculty “Ruffilli”. The case study describes and critically analyses the implementation of the online criminology course.


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