The impact of earthquake risk on banks’ lending behavior: evidence from local Chinese banks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Wu ◽  
Xianhang Qian ◽  
Yun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Chinese Banks ◽  
Lending Behavior ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The impact of a and b value uncertainty on loss estimation in the reinsurance industry

2000 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Liechti ◽  
E. Ruettener ◽  
S. Eugster ◽  
R. Streit
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Loss Estimation ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Seismic Risk Analysis ◽  
Earthquake Catalogues ◽  
Local Soil ◽  
Average Annual Loss ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Loss Level

In the reinsurance industry different probabilistic models are currently used for seismic risk analysis. A credible loss estimation of the insured values depends on seismic hazard analysis and on the vulnerability functions of the given structures. Besides attenuation and local soil amplification, the earthquake occurrence model (often represented by the Gutenberg and Richter relation) is a key element in the analysis. However, earthquake catalogues are usually incomplete, the time of observation is too short and the data themselves contain errors. Therefore, a and b values can only be estimated with uncertainties. The knowledge of their variation provides a valuable input for earthquake risk analysis, because they allow the probability distribution of expected losses (expressed by Average Annual Loss (AAL)) to be modelled. The variations of a and b have a direct effect on the estimated exceeding probability and consequently on the calculated loss level. This effect is best illustrated by exceeding probability versus loss level and AAL versus magnitude graphs. The sensitivity of average annual losses due to different a to b ratios and magnitudes is obvious. The estimation of the variation of a and b and the quantification of the sensitivity of calculated losses are fundamental for optimal earthquake risk management. Ignoring these uncertainties means that risk management decisions neglect possible variations of the earthquake loss estimations.

scholarly journals Model Percepatan Tanah Maksimum Di Kota Manado Menggunakan Metode Donovan dan McGuire

Jurnal MIPA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Guntur Pasau ◽  
Maria Daurina Bobanto ◽  
Dolfie P. Pandara
Keyword(s):  
Peak Ground Acceleration ◽  
Observation Interval ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
The North ◽  
A Value ◽  
Earthquake Hypocenter ◽  
Acceleration Analysis ◽  
Mitigation Effort ◽  
The Impact

Telah dilakukan analisis percepatan tanah maksimum gempa bumi di Kota Manado menggunakan metode Donovan dan McGuire. Kota Manado merupakan bagian dari lengan utara Pulau Sulawesi terletak pada batas pertemuan beberapa lempeng besar sehingga wilayah ini sangat rawan akan goncangan gempa bumi. Upaya mitigasi perlu dilakuakn sejak dini untuk memperkecil dampak resiko gempa bumi tersebut. Salah satu upaya mitigasi adalah memetakan percepatan tanah maksimum (peak ground acceleration) di permukaan. Penentuan variasi nilai percepatan tanah maksimum menggunakan metode Donovan dan metode McGuire. Data yang digunakan adalah data hypocenter gempa yang dikumpulkan dari dua katalog yakni data USGS dan ANSS selama selang pengamatan Februari 1963 sampai Agustus 2017 meliputi radius 500 km dari Kota Manado. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa percepatan tanah maksimum di Kota Manado menggunkan metode Donovan sekitar 42.12 gal sampai dengan 51.82 gal sedangkan metode Mc Guire diperoleh nilai percepatan tanah sekitar 59.13 gal sampai 72.53 gal.The peak ground acceleration analysis in Manado city has been done using Donovan and McGuire method. Manado City is part of the north arm of Sulawesi Island located at the boundary of several major plate meetings so that this region is very prone to earthquake shocks. Mitigation efforts need to be done early to minimize the impact of the earthquake risk. One mitigation effort is to map the peak ground acceleration on the surface. Determination of peak ground acceleration variation using the Donovan and McGuire method. The data used are earthquake hypocenter data collected from two catalogs namely USGS and ANSS data during the observation interval February 1963 to August 2017 covering a radius of 500 km from Manado City. The result of the analysis shows that the peak ground acceleration in Manado City uses Donovan method about 42.12 gal up to 51.82 gal while Mc Guire method obtained the peak ground acceleration a value of  about 59.13 gal to 72.53 gal.

scholarly journals EARTHQUAKE RISK MITIGATION: THE IMPACT OF SEISMIC RETROFITTING STRATEGIES ON URBAN RESILIENCE

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiago Miguel FERREIRA ◽  
Rui MAIO
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Seismic Retrofitting ◽  
Structural Safety ◽  
City Centre ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Masonry Building ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
The Impact

It is recognized that both community and urban resilience depends on the capacity of built environment to maintain acceptable structural safety levels during and after unforeseeable events, such as earthquakes, as well as to recover their original functionality. Investing in disaster risk mitigation policies is a great step towards promoting urban resilience and community preparedness, implicitly limiting damage to the built environment and subsequently reducing human, economic and environmental losses. Portugal is a moderate to high seismic prone area as the latest estimates indicate that within the next 50 years the country could be severely hit by a strong quake similar to the histori­cal 1755 event, which left a trail of destruction and death, mainly in densely populated areas, such as Lisbon. This manuscript aims to mitigate the impact of earthquake damage scenarios on social and economical terms, as well as evaluating the outcome of implementing traditional retrofitting strategies to existing masonry building stock located in urban areas of high seismic risk, using the old city centre of Horta, Faial island (Azores, Portugal), as a case study.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of Syrian refugees on earthquake casualty estimations in southeast Turkey

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley Wilson ◽  
Thomas Paradise
Keyword(s):  
Population Distribution ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Fault Zones ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Displaced Populations ◽  
Geographically Distributed ◽  
Earthquake Casualty ◽  
Semi Empirical ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The influx of millions of Syrian refugees into Turkey has rapidly changed the population distribution along the Dead Sea Rift and East Anatolian fault zones. In contrast to other countries in the Middle East where refugees are accommodated in camp environments, the majority of displaced individuals in Turkey are integrated into local cities, towns, and villages – placing stress on urban settings and increasing potential exposure to strong earthquake shaking. Yet, displaced populations are often unaccounted for in the census based population models used in earthquake casualty estimations. Accordingly, this study constructs a refugee inclusive gridded population model and analyzes its impact on semi-empirical casualty estimations across southeast Turkey. Daytime and nighttime fatality estimates were calculated for five geographically distributed fault zones at earthquake magnitudes 5.8, 6.4, and 7.0. Total casualty estimates ranged from 28–7723 individuals, with the contribution of refugees varying from 1 %–26 % of total estimated casualties. On average, these percentages correspond to casualty underestimations of tens to hundreds of individuals. These findings communicate the necessity of incorporating refugee statistics into earthquake risk analyses in southeast Turkey and the ongoing importance of placing environmental hazards in their appropriate regional and temporal context.

scholarly journals Modelling the impact of earthquake activity on real estate values: a multi-level approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berna Keskin ◽  
Richard Dunning ◽  
Craig Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Earthquake Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Environmental Events ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to explore the impact of a recent earthquake activity on house prices and their spatial distribution in the Istanbul housing market. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a multi-level approach within an event study framework to model changes in the pattern of house prices in Istanbul. The model allows the isolation of the effects of earthquake risk and explores the differential impact in different submarkets in two study periods – one before (2007) and one after (2012) recent earthquake activity in the Van region, which although in Eastern Turkey served to alter the perceptions of risk through the wider geographic region. Findings The analysis shows that there are variations in the size of price discounts in submarkets resulting from the differential influence of a recent earthquake activity on perceived risk of damage. The model results show that the spatial impacts of these changes are not transmitted evenly across the study area. Rather it is clear that submarkets at the cheaper end of the market have proportionately larger negative impacts on real estate values. Research limitations/implications The robustness of the models would be enhanced by the addition of further spatial levels and larger data sets. Practical implications The methods introduced in this study can be used by real estate agents, valuers and insurance companies to help them more accurately assess the likely impacts of changes in the perceived risk of earthquake activity (or other environmental events such as flooding) on the formation of house prices in different market segments. Social implications The application of these methods is intended to inform a fairer approach to setting insurance premiums and a better basis for determining policy interventions and public investment designed to mitigate potential earthquake risk. Originality/value The paper represents an attempt to develop a novel extension of the standard use of hedonic models in event studies to investigate the impact of natural disasters on real estate values. The value of the approach is that it is able to better capture the granularity of the spatial effects of environmental events than the standard approach.

scholarly journals Discussion on the Influence of Overseas Financial Institutions’ Participation in Shares on the Operation Efficiency of China’s Banking Industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Guo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
World Trade ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Operating Efficiency ◽  
Literature Research ◽  
The World ◽  
Chinese Banks ◽  
Reform And Opening Up ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Opening Up

With the implementation of China’s reform and opening up policy and China’s successful accession to the World Trade Organization, more and more overseas financial institutions are participating in various Chinese banks, and the amount of investment is also expanding. Therefore, it is particularly important to study the impact of overseas financial institutions participating in the Chinese Banks on the operating efficiency of the China’s banking industry. Therefore, based on the previous literature research, this paper constructs six models to explore whether foreign financial institutions participate in shares and the impact of shareholding ratio on the operating efficiency of China’s banking industry.

scholarly journals The Role of Earthquake Insurance in Earthquake Risk Reduction and Resilience Building

2021 ◽  
pp. 277-286
Author(s):  
Fouad Bendimerad
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Early Experiment ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Insurance Policy ◽  
Earthquake Insurance ◽  
Building Resilience ◽  
The Impact

AbstractResilience is defined as “The ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from and more successfully adapt to adverse events” (US National Academies). Resilience has four pillars: • Anticipate: the ability to anticipate and reduce the impact of shocks through preparedness and planning, • Absorb the ability to absorb and cope with the impacts of shocks and stresses. • Adapt: the ability to change in response to multiple, long-term and future risks, and to learn and adjust after a shock materializes. • Transform: the ability to take deliberate steps to change the systems that create risk, vulnerability and or inequality. How does insurance intervene in building resilience? The outcome of insurance is to restore property and livelihoods in case of an adverse effect. It does that by providing a cash infusion into the socio-economic system of the affected communities immediately after the event. The cash is used to restore property and avoid interruption of commercial and industrial activity. Insurance also intervenes in terms of reducing impact of stresses (which are the more extensive types of risk) since it enables a system of “maintenance” by providing funds for recovery under minor but more frequent events. For most developing countries, governments have been the insurer of last resort when it comes to catastrophe risk (referred to as Cat Risk in the insurance industry). The reason is that level of cat insurance penetration in most developing countries is very low, sometimes lower than 1%. The assurance of government intervention coupled with the lack of effectiveness of the financial transaction associated with a traditional insurance policy negate any incentive for individuals to acquire a cat insurance policy. The Turkish Compulsory Insurance Program or TCIP is one of the early experiment to change that paradigm and to provide a meaningful role for cat insurance in emerging economies. After a slow start, TCIP has now developed the financial capacity and the spread of coverage to play a significant role both in the financing of risk but also in supporting earthquake risk reduction in Turkey. New cat insurance products based on parametric indexing have since emerged. These insurance products could further improve the efficiency of TCIP and other cat insurance pools by making them more attractive to individuals, thereby scaling up their contribution to building resilience.

FACTORS AFFECTING SEISMIC BEHAVIOUR OF REINFORCED CONCRETE STRUCTURES AFTER FIRE EXPOSURE

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (Special Issue on First SACEE'19) ◽  
pp. 31-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alper Ilki ◽  
Ugur Demir
Keyword(s):  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Seismic Performance ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
Load Capacity ◽  
Lateral Load ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Fire Damage ◽  
Seismic Behaviour ◽  
Rc Structures ◽  
The Impact

In the areas under high earthquake risk, the impact of fire damage on the seismic performance of the reinforced concrete (RC) structures ought to be realistically taken into account while assessing the fire damage to develop reuse/repair/replace strategies through the remaining service life. In the scope of this study, a literature review is conducted on the changes of mechanical characteristics of concrete and reinforcement caused by a fire with a particular emphasis on the post-cooling stage. Post-cooling behaviour of RC members is different than the behaviour under elevated temperatures and hence it is of vital importance on structural seismic performance assessment after a fire. Apart from material-wise assessment methodologies, post-fire seismic performance of RC structural members is also discussed through post-fire simulated seismic loading tests conducted on full-scale cast-in-place and precast columns. The test results pointed out to a reduction in lateral load bearing capacity of the cast-in-place columns subjected to fire whereas fire-exposed precast columns demonstrated better performance in terms of residual lateral load capacity due to the lower axial load and larger heights. All columns exhibited satisfactory performance in terms of ductility.

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