Envisaging long-term urban dynamics: a spatially explicit analysis of local-scale population growth and natural balance

The present study assesses changes (1949-2008) in the structure of a Mediterranean urban area (Rome, Italy) in three phases (compact growth, medium-density growth, low-density growth) of its recent expansion which reflect different economic contexts at the local scale. Using a quantitative approach based on land-use indicators and landscape metrics, distribution and fragmentation of built-up areas were analyzed from high-resolution and diachronic digital maps covering the investigated area (1,500 km2). The analysis of the (changing) urban structure during the study period allows for an indirect evaluation of planning impact on Rome's expansion. City's morphology changed rapidly due to urbanization. While in the first examined phase (1949-1974) metrics indicated compactness and densification trends, the fractal dimension of urban settlements increased in the subsequent period together with patch fragmentation, dispersion and shape complexity. The study identified the indicators better characterizing Rome's expansion as a contribution to the understanding of long-term urban dynamics in the Mediterranean region.

Toward a New Cycle: Short-Term Population Dynamics, Gentrification, and Re-Urbanization of Milan (Italy)

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10093014 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (9) ◽

pp. 3014 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Margherita Carlucci ◽

Francesco Chelli ◽

Luca Salvati

Keyword(s):

Population Dynamics ◽

Population Growth ◽

Population Decline ◽

Population Expansion ◽

Local Scale ◽

City Centre ◽

Short Term ◽

Homogeneous Population ◽

Scale Population ◽

The City

After sequential cycles of urbanization and suburbanization, European cities underwent a (more or less intense) re-urbanization wave. The present study analyzes short-term population dynamics in the core of a large metropolitan region (Milan, northern Italy), providing evidence of spatially-heterogeneous re-urbanization characterized by spatially-complex population growth (or shrinkage) at a local scale. Population dynamics over 1999–2017 were assessed in 88 urban districts partitioning Milan′s municipal area and projected up to 2036 for the same spatial units. Empirical results identify spatially-complex and temporally non-linear dynamics with expanding or declining districts distributed heterogeneously across the study area. Multivariate analysis outlines a generalized population decline during 1999–2008 and an opposite pattern afterward (2008–2017), with spatially-homogeneous population expansion expected in the near future. Spatial analysis finally highlights that local-scale population growth rates were more clustered in 2008–2017 than in 1999–2008. While the population decreased continuously in the inner districts (<1 km from the city centre), sub-central districts (1–5 km far from the city centre) experienced mixed patterns of population growth and stability. These results confirm the relevance of local-scale policies managing urban renewal and rehabilitation and promoting metropolitan expansion in a spatially-coordinated manner.

Population Dynamics in Southern Europe: A Local-Scale Analysis, 1961–2011

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11010109 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 109 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Ilaria Zambon ◽

Kostas Rontos ◽

Pere Serra ◽

Andrea Colantoni ◽

Luca Salvati

Keyword(s):

Population Dynamics ◽

Settlement Patterns ◽

Population Distribution ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Local Scale ◽

Spatially Explicit ◽

Southern Europe ◽

Scale Analysis ◽

Demographic Trends ◽

Explicit Analysis

Different socioeconomic, historical, political, and cultural factors have influenced long-term settlement patterns and demographic structures in Europe. Southern Europe is considered a relatively homogeneous region as far as settlement characteristics and population dynamics are concerned. Within-country local variability in the spatial distribution of population is high, and inherent differences across countries may outline distinct demographic patterns at regional scale. A comparative, local-scale analysis of population distribution in five countries (Spain, Italy, Croatia, Greece, and Cyprus) over a relatively long time period (1961–2011) contributes to identify latent demographic trends in Mediterranean Europe at the spatial scale of Local Administrative Units (LAU). A spatially-explicit analysis of basic indicators of population density and demographic change allows identification of territorial disparities, reflecting local-scale settlement patterns common to different countries (e.g., population growth along coastal districts). These patterns consolidate a metropolitan hierarchy centered on large—mainly compact—cities and more dispersed conurbations along coastal areas. At the same time, the examined countries present different territorial contexts resulting in distinct population dynamics in turn influenced by internal (e.g., national policies, culture and local identity, class segregation) and exogenous (e.g., economic cycle, urbanization models) factors. A spatially-explicit analysis of demographic trends at local scale may contribute to rethinking urban strategies and adapting spatial planning to heterogeneous socioeconomic contexts across Europe.

Beyond the Transition: Long-Term Population Trends in a Disadvantaged Region of Southern Europe, 1861–2017

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13126636 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (12) ◽

pp. 6636

Author(s):

Rosanna Salvia ◽

Luca Salvati ◽

Giovanni Quaranta

Keyword(s):

Population Growth ◽

Demographic Transition ◽

Population Trends ◽

Population Increase ◽

High Fertility ◽

Homogeneous Population ◽

Scale Population ◽

Spatially Homogeneous ◽

Demographic Patterns

The long-term impact of demographic transitions on the spatial distribution of human settlements was occasionally evaluated in Europe. Assuming the distinctive role of urban–rural divides, our study investigates local-scale population trends (1861–2017) in Southern Italy, a disadvantaged region of Mediterranean Europe, as a result of long-term socioeconomic transformations. A quantitative analysis of municipal-scale population data based on descriptive and exploratory multivariate statistics, mapping, inferential approaches, and regression models identified four time intervals with distinctive demographic dynamics: (i) a spatially homogeneous population growth between 1861 and 1911, (ii) a moderate population increase rebalancing a traditional divide in coastal and internal areas (1911–1951), (iii) accelerated population growth enlarging spatial divides in urban and rural districts (1951–1981), and (iv) population stability (or slight decline) leading to heterogeneous demographic patterns since the early 1980s. The first three stages reflect a prolonged transition from high fertility and mortality to high fertility and low mortality, with accelerated population growth typical of the latest stage of the first demographic transition. Outcomes of time interval (iv) reflect the early stages of the second demographic transition, with lowest-low fertility and rising life expectancy. While the first transition reflected spatially homogeneous population trends along a considerable time spam, the second transition has been associated with heterogeneous (leapfrog) demographic patterns as a result of socially mixed (and spatially) fragmented dynamics of growth and change.

Leopard Density Estimation within an Enclosed Reserve, Namibia Using Spatially Explicit Capture-Recapture Models

Animals ◽

10.3390/ani9100724 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (10) ◽

pp. 724

Author(s):

Noack ◽

Heyns ◽

Rodenwoldt ◽

Edwards

Keyword(s):

Management Strategies ◽

Camera Traps ◽

Spatially Explicit ◽

Conservation Areas ◽

Term Survival ◽

New Class ◽

Capture Recapture ◽

Wildlife Populations ◽

Effective Conservation

The establishment of enclosed conservation areas are claimed to be the driving force for the long-term survival of wildlife populations. Whilst fencing provides an important tool in conservation, it simultaneously represents a controversial matter as it stops natural migration processes, which could ultimately lead to inbreeding, a decline in genetic diversity and local extinction if not managed correctly. Thus, wildlife residing in enclosed reserves requires effective conservation and management strategies, which are strongly reliant on robust population estimates. Here, we used camera traps combined with the relatively new class of spatially explicit capture-recaptured models (SECR) to produce the first reliable leopard population estimate for an enclosed reserve in Namibia. Leopard density was estimated at 14.51 leopards/100 km2, the highest recorded density in Namibia to date. A combination of high prey abundance, the absence of human persecution and a lack of top-down control are believed to be the main drivers of the recorded high leopard population. Our results add to the growing body of literature which suggests enclosed reserves have the potential to harbour high densities and highlight the importance of such reserves for the survival of threatened species in the future.

Evidence for local‐scale community assembly processes from long‐term observations of biodiversity in a grassland chronosequence

Journal of Vegetation Science ◽

10.1111/jvs.13065 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Mark J. McKone ◽

Evelyn W. Williams ◽

Jared J. Beck

Keyword(s):

Community Assembly ◽

Local Scale

Inferring Long-Term Demand of Newly Established Stations for Expansion Areas in Bike Sharing System

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11156748 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (15) ◽

pp. 6748

Author(s):

Hsun-Ping Hsieh ◽

Fandel Lin ◽

Jiawei Jiang ◽

Tzu-Ying Kuo ◽

Yu-En Chang

Keyword(s):

New York ◽

Feature Extraction ◽

Real World ◽

Extraction Methods ◽

Real World Data ◽

Urban Dynamics ◽

Bike Sharing ◽

The Government ◽

Short Time

Research on flourishing public bike-sharing systems has been widely discussed in recent years. In these studies, many existing works focus on accurately predicting individual stations in a short time. This work, therefore, aims to predict long-term bike rental/drop-off demands at given bike station locations in the expansion areas. The real-world bike stations are mainly built-in batches for expansion areas. To address the problem, we propose LDA (Long-Term Demand Advisor), a framework to estimate the long-term characteristics of newly established stations. In LDA, several engineering strategies are proposed to extract discriminative and representative features for long-term demands. Moreover, for original and newly established stations, we propose several feature extraction methods and an algorithm to model the correlations between urban dynamics and long-term demands. Our work is the first to address the long-term demand of new stations, providing the government with a tool to pre-evaluate the bike flow of new stations before deployment; this can avoid wasting resources such as personnel expense or budget. We evaluate real-world data from New York City’s bike-sharing system, and show that our LDA framework outperforms baseline approaches.

Long-term dynamic modeling of global population and built-up area in a spatially explicit way: HYDE 3.1

The Holocene ◽

10.1177/0959683609356587 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 20 (4) ◽

pp. 565-573 ◽

Cited By ~ 322

Author(s):

Kees Klein Goldewijk ◽

Arthur Beusen ◽

Peter Janssen

Keyword(s):

Dynamic Modeling ◽

Spatially Explicit ◽

Global Population

Applying the FEW nexus concept at the local scale

10.32942/osf.io/fu27s ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Henry P. Huntington ◽

Jennifer Schmidt ◽

Philip A. Loring ◽

Erin Whitney ◽

Srijan Aggarwal ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Renewable Energy ◽

Local Scale ◽

Theory And Practice ◽

Food Energy ◽

Cross Domain ◽

Rural Alaska ◽

Domain Interactions ◽

The Cross

The food-energy-water (FEW) nexus describes interactions among domains that yield gains or tradeoffs when analyzed together rather than independently. In a project about renewable energy in rural Alaska communities, we applied this concept to examine the implications for sustainability and resilience. The FEW nexus provided a useful framework for identifying the cross-domain benefits of renewable energy, including gains in FEW security. However, other factors such as transportation and governance also play a major role in determining FEW security outcomes in rural Alaska. Here we show the implications of our findings for theory and practice. The precise configurations of and relationships among FEW nexus components vary by place and time, and the range of factors involved further complicates the ability to develop a functional, systematic FEW model. Instead, we suggest how the FEW nexus may be applied conceptually to identify and understand cross-domain interactions that contribute to long-term sustainability and resilience.

Fluvial response a decade after wildfire in the northern Yellowstone ecosystem: a spatially explicit analysis

Geomorphology ◽

10.1016/s0169-555x(02)00332-x ◽

2003 ◽

Vol 54 (3-4) ◽

pp. 119-136 ◽

Cited By ~ 45

Author(s):

Carl J Legleiter ◽

Rick L Lawrence ◽

Mark A Fonstad ◽

W Andrew Marcus ◽

Richard Aspinall

Keyword(s):

Spatially Explicit ◽

Explicit Analysis ◽

Fluvial Response