Assessment of Inter-Model Variability in Meteorological Drought Characteristics Using CMIP5 GCMs over South Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (9) ◽  
pp. 2824-2834
Author(s):  
Jang Hyun Sung ◽  
Junehyeong Park ◽  
Jong-June Jeon ◽  
Seung Beom Seo
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Gcms

scholarly journals Elucidating Diverse Drought Characteristics from Two Meteorological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI) in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1513-1530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingcheng Li ◽  
Dunxian She ◽  
Hui Zheng ◽  
Peirong Lin ◽  
Zong-Liang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Drought Characteristics

AbstractThis study elucidates drought characteristics in China during 1980–2015 using two commonly used meteorological drought indices: standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results show that SPEI characterizes an overall increase in drought severity, area, and frequency during 1998–2015 compared with those during 1980–97, mainly due to the increasing potential evapotranspiration. By contrast, SPI does not reveal this phenomenon since precipitation does not exhibit a significant change overall. We further identify individual drought events using the three-dimensional (i.e., longitude, latitude, and time) clustering algorithm and apply the severity–area–duration (SAD) method to examine the drought spatiotemporal dynamics. Compared to SPI, SPEI identifies a lower drought frequency but with larger total drought areas overall. Additionally, SPEI identifies a greater number of severe drought events but a smaller number of slight drought events than the SPI. Approximately 30% of SPI-detected drought grids are not identified as drought by SPEI, and 40% of SPEI-detected drought grids are not recognized as drought by SPI. Both indices can roughly capture the major drought events, but SPEI-detected drought events are overall more severe than SPI. From the SAD analysis, SPI tends to identify drought as more severe over small areas within 1 million km2 and short durations less than 2 months, whereas SPEI tends to delineate drought as more severe across expansive areas larger than 3 million km2 and periods longer than 3 months. Given the fact that potential evapotranspiration increases in a warming climate, this study suggests SPEI may be more suitable than SPI in monitoring droughts under climate change.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Drought Characteristics: Regional Analysis for South Korea under CMIP5 Projections

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 437-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinyoung Rhee ◽  
Jaepil Cho
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Average Duration ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Northeastern Asia ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
The Future

Abstract The future changes in drought characteristics were examined on a regional scale for South Korea, in northeastern Asia, using 17 bias-corrected projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) of representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. The frequency of severe or extreme drought, based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), with time scales of 1, 3, and 12 months (i.e., SPI1, SPI3, SPI12, SPEI1, SPEI3, and SPEI12), was considered, as well as the average duration based on SPEI1. A multimodel ensemble (MME) was produced using selected models, and future changes were investigated in terms of both drought frequency and the average duration for the entire area and four river basins. The changes in drought frequency largely depend on the selection of a drought index, rather than climate projection scenarios. SPEI3 mostly projected future increases in drought frequency, while SPI3 showed varied projections. SPI12 projected decreases in drought frequency for both scenarios in the study area, while differences between river basins were observed for SPEI12. Increases in the average duration of droughts were projected based on SPEI1, indicating an increase in persistent short-term droughts in the future. The results emphasize the importance of regional- and subregional-scale analysis in northeastern Asia. The findings of the study provide valuable information that can be used for drought-related decision-making, which could not be obtained from studies on a global spatial scale.

scholarly journals Hydrological Drought Characteristics Based on Groundwater and Runoff Across Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 383 ◽  
pp. 281-290
Author(s):  
Samuel Jonson Sutanto ◽  
Henny A. J. Van Lanen
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Southeast Europe ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Groundwater Drought

Abstract. Hydrological drought often gets less attention compared to meteorological drought. For water resources managers, information on hydrological drought characteristics is prerequisite for adequate drought planning and management. Therefore, the aim of this study is to analyse hydrological drought characteristics in the pan-European region based on past drought events from 1990 to 2017. The annual average drought duration, deficit volume, onset, termination, and intensity during drought years were calculated using daily runoff and groundwater data. All data were simulated with the LISFLOOD hydrological model (resolution 5×5 km) fed with gridded time series of observed weather data. Results based on runoff and groundwater data show that regions in Northeast to Southeast Europe, which stretched out from Poland to Bulgaria, were identified as profound regions to severe hydrological drought hazards. The most severe droughts during our study period were observed in 1992 to 1997, where on average Europe experienced drought events, which lasted up to 4 months. Long average drought durations up to 4 and 8 months in runoff and groundwater occurred in a few parts of the European regions (around 10 % area). Longer drought durations and a lower number of drought events were found in groundwater drought than in runoff, which proved that slow responding variables (groundwater) are better in showing extreme drought compared to fast responding variables (runoff). Based on our results, the water managers can better prepare for upcoming drought and foster drought adaptation actions.

scholarly journals Future changes in meteorological drought characteristics over Bangladesh projected by the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

2020 ◽  
Vol 162 (2) ◽  
pp. 667-685
Author(s):  
Jamal Uddin Khan ◽  
A. K. M. Saiful Islam ◽  
Mohan K. Das ◽  
Khaled Mohammed ◽  
Sujit Kumar Bala ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Drought Characteristics

scholarly journals Multivariate groundwater drought analysis using copulas

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 666-685
Author(s):  
Bahram Saghafian ◽  
Hamid Sanginabadi
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Copula Models ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Groundwater Drought

Abstract Drought characteristics are among major inputs in the planning and management of water resources. Although numerous studies on probabilistic aspects of meteorological drought characteristics and their joint distribution functions have been reported, multivariate analysis of groundwater (GW) drought is rarely available. In this paper, while proposing a framework for statistical analysis of disturbed hydrological systems, copula-based multivariate GW drought analysis was performed in an over-drafted aquifer. For this purpose, a 1,000-year synthetic time series of naturalized GW level was produced. GW drought was monitored via the Standardized GW Index (SGI) index while the multivariate GW drought probability and return period were determined via copulas. Comparison between the copula and empirical GW drought probabilities using statistical goodness-of-fit tests proved sufficient accuracy of copula models in multivariate drought analysis. The results showed strong dependence among GW drought characteristics. Generally speaking, multivariate GW drought analysis incorporates major drought characteristics and provides concrete scientific basis for planning drought management strategies.

Future Precipitation-Driven Meteorological Drought Changes in the CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles under 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (9) ◽  
pp. 2177-2196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanhao Wu ◽  
Pat J.-F. Yeh ◽  
Yi-Ying Chen ◽  
Bill X. Hu ◽  
Guoru Huang
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
North America ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Northern Asia ◽  
Drought Characteristics

AbstractAnthropogenic forcing is anticipated to increase the magnitude and frequency of precipitation-induced extremes such as the increase in drought risks. However, the model-projected future changes in global droughts remain largely uncertain, particularly in the context of the Paris Agreement targets. Here, by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), we present a multiscale global assessment of the precipitation-driven meteorological drought characteristics at the 1.5° and 2°C warming levels based on 28 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) under three representative concentration pathways scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The results show large uncertainties in the timing reaching 1.5° and 2°C warming and the changes in drought characteristics among GCMs, especially at longer time scales and under higher RCP scenarios. The multi-GCM ensemble mean projects a general increase in drought frequency (Df) and area (Da) over North America, Europe, and northern Asia at both 1.5° and 2°C of global warming. The additional 0.5°C warming from 1.5° to 2°C is expected to result in a trend toward wetter climatic conditions for most global regions (e.g., North America, Europe, northern Asia, and northern Africa) due to the continuing increase in precipitation under the more intensified 2°C warming. In contrast, the increase in Df is projected only in some parts of southwest Asia, South America, southern Africa, and Australia. Our results highlight the need to consider multiple GCMs in drought projection studies under the context of the Paris Agreement targets to account for large model-dependent uncertainties.

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