Examinations of cloud variability and future change in the coupled model intercomparison project phase 3 simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun-Hee Shin ◽  
Myong-In Lee ◽  
Ok-Yeon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Future Change ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Intercomparison Project

scholarly journals Atmospheric and Surface Contributions to Planetary Albedo

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (16) ◽  
pp. 4402-4418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Donohoe ◽  
David S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Radiation Model ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Surface Reflection ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Planetary Albedo

Abstract The planetary albedo is partitioned into a component due to atmospheric reflection and a component due to surface reflection by using shortwave fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere in conjunction with a simple radiation model. The vast majority of the observed global average planetary albedo (88%) is due to atmospheric reflection. Surface reflection makes a relatively small contribution to planetary albedo because the atmosphere attenuates the surface contribution to planetary albedo by a factor of approximately 3. The global average planetary albedo in the ensemble average of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) preindustrial simulations is also primarily (87%) due to atmospheric albedo. The intermodel spread in planetary albedo is relatively large and is found to be predominantly a consequence of intermodel differences in atmospheric albedo, with surface processes playing a much smaller role despite significant intermodel differences in surface albedo. The CMIP3 models show a decrease in planetary albedo under a doubling of carbon dioxide—also primarily due to changes in atmospheric reflection (which explains more than 90% of the intermodel spread). All models show a decrease in planetary albedo due to the lowered surface albedo associated with a contraction of the cryosphere in a warmer world, but this effect is small compared to the spread in planetary albedo due to model differences in the change in clouds.

scholarly journals A new end-to-end workflow for the Community Earth System Model (version 2.0) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5567-5581
Author(s):  
Sheri Mickelson ◽  
Alice Bertini ◽  
Gary Strand ◽  
Kevin Paul ◽  
Eric Nienhouse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Previous Generation ◽  
Data Volume ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Version 2.0 ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Compressed Data

Abstract. The complexity of each Coupled Model Intercomparison Project grows with every new generation. The Phase 5 effort saw a dramatic increase in the number of experiments that were performed and the number of variables that were requested compared to its previous generation, Phase 3. The large increase in data volume stressed the resources of several centers including at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. During Phase 5, we missed several deadlines and we struggled to get the data out to the community for analysis. In preparation for the current generation, Phase 6, we examined the weaknesses in our workflow and addressed the performance issues with new software tools. Through this investment, we were able to publish approximately 565 TB of compressed data to the community, with another 30 TB yet to be published. When compared to the volumes we produced in the previous generation, 165 TB of uncompressed data, we were able to provide 6 times the amount of data and we accomplish this within one-third of the time. This provided us with an approximate 18 times faster speedup. While this paper discusses the improvements we have made to our own workflow for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we hope to encourage other centers to evaluate and invest in their own workflows in order to be successful in these types of modeling campaigns.

scholarly journals Understanding the CMIP3 Multimodel Ensemble

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (16) ◽  
pp. 4529-4538 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. D. Annan ◽  
J. C. Hargreaves
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Ensemble Size ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Climate Research ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
And Behavior

Abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel ensemble has been widely utilized for climate research and prediction, but the properties and behavior of the ensemble are not yet fully understood. Here, some investigations are undertaken into various aspects of the ensemble’s behavior, in particular focusing on the performance of the multimodel mean. This study presents an explanation of this phenomenon in the context of the statistically indistinguishable paradigm and also provides a quantitative analysis of the main factors that control how likely the mean is to outperform the models in the ensemble, both individually and collectively. The analyses lend further support to the usage of the paradigm of a statistically indistinguishable ensemble and indicate that the current ensemble size is too small to adequately sample the space from which the models are drawn.

scholarly journals The Interannual Relationship between the Latitude of the Eddy-Driven Jet and the Edge of the Hadley Cell

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 563-568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah M. Kang ◽  
Lorenzo M. Polvani
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Hadley Cell ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Universal Ratio

Abstract A strong correlation between the latitudes of the eddy-driven jet and of the Hadley cell edge, on interannual time scales, is found to exist during austral summer, in both the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and the models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3). In addition, a universal ratio close to 1:2 characterizes the robust connection between these two latitudes on a year-to-year basis: for a 2° shift of the eddy-driven jet, the edge of the Hadley cell shifts by 1°. This 1:2 interannual ratio remains the same in response to climate change, even though the values of the two latitudes increase. The corresponding trends are also highly correlated; in the CMIP3 scenario integrations, however, no universal ratio appears to exist connecting these long-term trends. In austral winter and in the Northern Hemisphere, no strong interannual correlations are found.

scholarly journals Future changes in monsoon duration and precipitation using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suyeon Moon ◽  
Kyung-Ja Ha
Keyword(s):  
Rainy Season ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Future Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Regional Monsoon ◽  
Thermodynamic Factors

AbstractFuture change in summertime rainfall under a warmer climate will impact the lives of more than two-thirds of the world’s population. However, the future changes in the duration of the rainy season affected by regional characteristics are not yet entirely understood. We try to understand changes in the length of the rainy season as well as the amounts of the future summertime precipitation, and the related processes over regional monsoon domains using phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project archive. Projections reveal extensions of the rainy season over the most of monsoon domains, except over the American monsoon. Enhancing the precipitation in the future climate has various increasing rates depending on the subregional monsoon, and it is mainly affected by changes in thermodynamic factors. This study promotes awareness for the risk of unforeseen future situations by showing regional changes in precipitation according to future scenarios.

scholarly journals A New End-to-End Workflow for the Community Earth System Model (version 2.0) for CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheri Mickelson ◽  
Alice Bertini ◽  
Gary Strand ◽  
Kevin Paul ◽  
Eric Nienhouse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Atmospheric Research ◽  
Previous Generation ◽  
Community Earth System Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Version 2.0 ◽  
New Generation

Abstract. The complexity of each Coupled Model Intercomparison Project grows with every new generation. The Phase 5 effort saw a large increase in the number of experiments that were performed and the number of variables that were requested compared to its previous generation, Phase 3. Many centers were not prepared for the large demand and this stressed the resources of several centers including at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. During Phase 5, we missed several deadlines and we struggled to get the data out to the community for analysis. In preparation for the current generation, Phase 6, we examined the weaknesses in our workflow and addressed the performance issues with new software tools. Through this investment, we were able to publish approximately six times the amount of data to the community compared to the volumes we produced in the previous generation and we were able to accomplish this within one-third of the time, providing an 18 times speedup. This paper discusses the improvements we have made to accomplish this success for Phase 6 and further improvements we hope to make for the next generation.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6760
Author(s):  
Isaac Kwesi Nooni ◽  
Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan ◽  
Guojie Wang ◽  
Waheed Ullah ◽  
Jiao Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Near Future

The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

scholarly journals Changes in the Tropical Pacific SST Trend from CMIP3 to CMIP5 and Its Implication of ENSO

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (21) ◽  
pp. 7764-7771 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang-Wook Yeh ◽  
Yoo-Geun Ham ◽  
June-Yi Lee
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Sst Anomaly ◽  
Earth System Models ◽  
Background State ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

This study assesses the changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) trend and ENSO amplitude by comparing a historical run of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase-5 multimodel ensemble dataset (CMIP5) and the CMIP phase-3 dataset (CMIP3). The results indicate that the magnitude of the SST trend in the tropical Pacific basin has been significantly reduced from CMIP3 to CMIP5, which may be associated with the overestimation of the response to natural forcing and aerosols by including Earth system models in CMIP5. Moreover, the patterns of tropical warming over the second half of the twentieth century have changed from a La Niña–like structure in CMIP3 to an El Niño–like structure in CMIP5. Further analysis indicates that such changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific and an increase in the sensitivity of the atmospheric response to the SST changes in the eastern tropical Pacific have influenced the ENSO properties. In particular, the ratio of the SST anomaly variance in the eastern and western tropical Pacific increased from CMIP3 to CMIP5, indicating that a center of action associated with the ENSO amplitude has shifted to the east.

scholarly journals Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 Models: RCP and Historical Simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (18) ◽  
pp. 7187-7197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Cheng ◽  
John C. H. Chiang ◽  
Dongxiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
First Century ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
The North ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Twenty First Century

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ~60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed.

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