scholarly journals Minnesota—too late for a Sovereign Wealth Fund?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher R. McIntosh ◽  
Neil A. Wilmot ◽  
Adrienne Dinneen ◽  
Jason F. Shogren
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Resources ◽  
Iron Ore ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
Funding Mechanism ◽  
Investment Return ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Fund Size ◽  
Forward Looking

AbstractTen states have created natural-resource-based Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) to allow a fraction of the wealth derived from the extraction of non-renewable resources to be available for future use. Minnesota does not have a SWF, even though companies have been mining in the state for over 100 years. Herein, we present backward and forward-looking scenarios to estimate the potential magnitude of a “what-if” extraction-based fund. A 1.5% of value tax is suggested as an SWF funding mechanism. Based on historical extraction, prices, and investment returns, a large SWF could already exist. In the forward-looking section, we begin by econometrically estimating the supply and demand of US iron ore production to better understand how an increase in mining taxes would likely effect mining output (i.e., the production effect). After accounting for an estimated 4% production loss, results suggest enough minerals could still be extracted to create a permanent fund with between $930 million (US) and $1.6 billion dollars (US) in direct contributions by 2050 (depending on price). Using reasonable assumptions of a 2% inflation rate and a 5% annual investment return, the fund size could range from $3 billion to $5 billion by 2050.

Solar Renewable Energy Credit Price Volatility and Investment Returns: Have Policies Stranded Capital Investment?

Commonwealth ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Somayeh Youssefi ◽  
Patrick L. Gurian
Keyword(s):  
Solar Energy ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
The United States ◽  
Investment Model ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Investment Returns

Pennsylvania is one of a number of U.S. states that provide incentives for the generation of electricity by solar energy through Solar Renewal Energy Credits (SRECs). This article develops a return on investment model for solar energy generation in the PJM (mid-­Atlantic) region of the United States. Model results indicate that SREC values of roughly $150 are needed for residential scale systems to break even over a 25-­year project period at 3% interest. Market prices for SRECs in Pennsylvania have been well below this range from late 2011 through the first half of 2016, indicating that previous capital investments in solar generation have been stranded as a result of steep declines in the value of SRECs. A simple conceptual supply and demand model is developed to explain the sharp decline in market prices for SRECs. Also discussed is a possible policy remedy that would add unsold SRECs in a given year to the SREC quota for the subsequent year.

scholarly journals Movement of Inflation and New Keynesian Phillips Curve in ASEAN

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Adhitya Wardhono ◽  
M. Abd. Nasir ◽  
Ciplis Gema Qori’ah ◽  
Yulia Indrawati
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Method Of Moment ◽  
Inflation Model ◽  
Wage Inflation ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moment ◽  
Forward Looking

The development of the theory of dynamic inflation begins by linking wage inflation and unemployment. In further developments, factor of expectation is classified into inflation model. The study used inflation data is important for ASEAN, because ASEAN is one of the strengths of the international economy. This study analyzes the dynamics of inflation in the ASEAN using framework the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model. The data used is the quarterly panel data from 5 ASEAN members in the period 2005.QI–2018.QIV. The study of this dynamic inflation applies quarter to quarter inflation data, meaning that the inflation rate is the percentage change in the general price of the current quarter compared to last quarter general price divided by the last quarter. The empirical results are estimated by using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM), both of the system and first different indicates that the pattern formation of inflation expectations are backward-looking and forward-looking. In addition, the estimated NKPC models show the backward-looking behavior is more dominant than the forward looking. Changes in inflation are not entirely influenced by expectations of inflation in each country. Changes in inflation are also influenced by the output gap, changes in money supply, and exchange rate. Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the NKPC models can explain the dynamics of inflation in each country in the ASEAN region.

scholarly journals DOES FAITH HAS IMPACT ON INVESTMENT RETURN: EVIDENCE FROM REITS

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 378-389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weiwei Zhang ◽  
Tiezhu Sun ◽  
Zilong Wang ◽  
Vishnu Raj Kumar ◽  
Yechi Ma
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Sample Analysis ◽  
Investment Return ◽  
Investment Returns

This paper investigates whether faith has impact on investment returns. Specifically, we choose the Shariah compliance and REITs investment for the purpose of investigation. Synthetic Shariah compliant portfolios are constructed with various interpretation of compliance. We compare the performance of Shariah compliant portfolios with US Equity REIT portfolio during 1993–2017 by examining the abnormal returns using CAPM and Carhart four-factor model. We find no evidence of underperformance or outperformance of the Shariah compliant investments. This is also true during the financial crisis periods which is confirmed by the sub-sample analysis. Our findings suggest that Shariah compliant REIT investor faces no cost or gain in his investments as a result of his faith.

An Agent-Based Model to Forecast the Inflation Rate in the Eurozone

2017 ◽  
pp. 72-92
Author(s):  
Juan Luis Santos ◽  
Jagoda Anna Kaszowska ◽  
Tomás Mancha Navarro
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Single Agent ◽  
Market Equilibrium ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inflation Rates

The aim of the agent-based model presented in this chapter is to explain the determinants of inflation and to forecast the inflation rate in the Eurozone for the next five years. The behaviors of agents and their expectations are interrelated and explained by macroeconomic models applied to heterogeneous agents of three classes: individuals, companies and financial institutions. In addition, the behavior of public sector and central bank is also modeled with a single agent of each kind. Once the quantitative easing policy is implemented, the quantitative theory of money expects higher inflation rates in the long run. Inflation should remain low taking into account the Phillips-Curve. Last, according to the Aggregated Supply and Demand as well as to the Money Market equilibrium, the behaviors modeled allow forecasting low inflation. However, an external shock, as it would be an increase in the price of important commodities, can alter the inflation rate to a great extent.

Financier Search and Boundaries of the Angel and VC Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 1223-1249
Author(s):  
Gurupdesh Pandher
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Venture Capitalists ◽  
Entrepreneurial Finance ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Agency Model ◽  
Investment Return ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Venture Funding ◽  
Funding Cycle

This paper studies how critical entrepreneurial finance outcomes such as the investment return and equity division are shaped by venture characteristics, financier risk preferences, and competitive searching. Our analysis uses a double-hazard agency model in which financiers determine the equity division to maximize the expected utility of their investment return while entrepreneurs search for the best deal. Model results provide new theoretical insights on the venture funding cycle, the coexistence of angels/venture capitalists (VCs) with heterogeneous risk aversion, and risk separation in the entrepreneurial finance market. The model predicts that financiers with higher funding capacity and advisory capabilities (e.g., VC firms) will prefer to fund at later stages as their expected investment return rises with the venture’s initial value and financier productivity. Competitive searching by entrepreneurs enables financiers with a diverse set of risk preferences to coexist profitably by reducing the advantage (disadvantage) of lower (higher) risk aversion financiers and making investment returns more similar. Further, the model shows the emergence of a risk separation cutoff beyond which only angels/VCs with lower levels of risk aversion can profitably fund riskier ventures.

Phillips curve and long-run inflation under commitment

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-35
Author(s):  
Dario Pontiggia
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Monetary Authority ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rule Of Thumb ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Forward Looking

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to study the optimal long-run rate of inflation in the presence of a hybrid Phillips curve, which nests a purely backward-looking Phillips curve and the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) as special limiting cases.Design/methodology/approachThis paper derives the long-run rate of inflation in a basic New Keynesian (NK) model, characterized by sticky prices and rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters. The monetary authority possesses commitment and its objective function stems from an approximation to the utility of the representative household.FindingsCommitment solution for the monetary authority leads to steady-state outcomes in which inflation, albeit small, is positive. Rising from zero under the purely forward-looking NKPC, the optimal long-run rate of inflation reaches its maximum under the purely backward-looking Phillips curve. In this case, inflation bias arises, while, under the hybrid Phillips curve, positive long-run inflation is associated with an output gain.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper serves as a clarification against the misperception that log-linearized models take as given the steady-state inflation rate rather than being capable of determining it. Analysis is sensitive to the basic NK setting, with the assumed rule-of-thumb behavior by price setters and price staggering.Originality/valueThe results are the first to quantify the optimal long-run rate of inflation in a fully microfounded model that nests different Phillips curves.

scholarly journals What Explains the Size of Sovereign Wealth Funds?

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonia Ficova ◽  
Juraj Sipko
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Sovereign Wealth Funds ◽  
The Public ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
Rapid Appearance

Abstract Reasons for the rapid appearance and growth of SWFs is contributed by increase in oil prices and the accumulation of large balance-of-payments surpluses. Purpose of the article is to investigate size of observed Sovereign Wealth Funds in 2013. Moreover, to describe what explain differences in the size of SWFs, on the other hand what determines the amount of foreign exchange reserves. Is the size of observed funds closely related to rate of growth of the countries? Is return of observed funds is closely related to fund value bn USD, GDP growth (annual %) and inflation rate of the country? Methodology/methods deployed in this paper has been done illustrations by using available data from official websites of funds, Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, International Monetary Fund, CIA The World Factbook and author’s calculations due the fact that most of funds do not provide data to the public. In addition to this, we present the estimations by using regression analysis, transferring observed data using the least squares method, The two-sample t-test for mean value, ANOVA, TINV. Scientific aim is to examine whether AUM of SWFs, moreover the size of 14 observed funds is closely related to rate of growth of the countries at 90 percent of probability. Second, if return of 14 observed funds is closely related to fund value bn USD, GDP growth (annual %) and inflation rate of the country at 95 percent of probability. Third, if there are significant differences between return in 2010 and 2013. Findings indicates that paper came to the conclusion that the return of 14 observed funds is closely related to fund value bn USD, GDP growth (annual %) and inflation rate of the country at 95 percent of probability. Furthermore, there are significant differences between return in 2010 and 2013. Conclusions (limits, implications etc) pointed out that the influence of SWFs has become undeniable, with total assets topping 6,585tn USD in June 2014, these investors have reached a size comparable to that of the entire alternative assets industry.

Industrial development and application of biobased oleochemicals

2007 ◽  
Vol 79 (11) ◽  
pp. 1999-2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karlheinz Hill
Keyword(s):  
Vegetable Oils ◽  
Renewable Resources ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Fats And Oils ◽  
Major Research ◽  
Industrial Use ◽  
Increasing Demand ◽  
Technology Area

In concepts for new products, performance, product safety, and product economy criteria are equally important. They are taken into account already when the raw materials base for a new industrial product development is defined. Here, renewable resources gain-again after the earlier "green trend" in the 1980s-increasing attention as an alternative raw materials source compared to fossil feedstock. The industrial use of carbohydrates, proteins, and vegetable oils aligns perfectly with the principles of Responsible Care and is an important part of green chemistry and sustainability in general. Since the 1950s, oleochemistry has grown to a major research and technology area in several institutions and industries. A large variety of products based on fats and oils have been developed since then for different uses, such as specialties for polymer applications, biodegradable mineral oil replacements for lubricants, and surfactants and emulsifiers for the home and personal-care industries. However, at present it seems that the use of renewable resources, especially vegetable oils, has to compete more and more with the increasing demand for bioenergy, which could cause an unbalanced supply and demand in the future or even a threat for the increasing demand for food in certain areas of the world.

scholarly journals SURVEY MEASURES OF INFLATION EXPECTATION

2012 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 421-456
Author(s):  
Endy Dwi Tjahjono ◽  
Harmanta Harmanta ◽  
Nur M. Adhi Purwato
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Directional Information ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Short Horizon ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Forward Looking

The research objective was to analyze various survey measures of inflation expectation in Indonesia. We found that the heterogeneity of inflation expectationamong economic agents and professional forecastersfor short forecast horizon is very low. Survey measures of inflation expectation appear to be forward looking, but only for relatively short horizon. Although the magnitude and length vary across measures of inflation expectation, we find that shock to inflation expectation significantly affect the dynamics of the actual inflation rate. Based on the accuracy, the effect on actual inflation and directional information that they have in predicting current and future inflation, inflation expectation from Consensus Forecast outperformed the others.Keywords: Inflation expectation, Vector Auto Regression, balanced score.JEL Classification: C42, E31.

scholarly journals Is Inflation Target Announced by Bank Indonesia the Most Accurate Inflation Forecast?

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (2) ◽  
pp. 98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faisal Rachman
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Multivariate Time Series ◽  
Accurate Method ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Evaluation Period ◽  
Inflation Expectation ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Inflation Targets ◽  
Forward Looking

This article investigates whether following Bank Indonesia’s explicit inflation targets (forward-looking) is a more accurate method of predicting inflation rate in Indonesia than forecast methods utilizing past information of macroeconomic data (backward-looking). The analysis is conducted by performing naive, univariate, and multivariate time-series models with an out-of-sample forecast evaluation period of January 2014–December 2016. It is found that the backward-looking approach outperforms the forward-looking approach at all forecast horizons, indicating that Bank Indonesia still does not succeed to anchor inflation expectation towards the desired level.AbstrakArtikel ini mencoba untuk meneliti apakah mengikuti target inflasi yang dikeluarkan oleh Bank Indonesia (forward-looking) adalah metode yang lebih akurat untuk memprediksi tingkat inflasi suatu periode tertentu di Indonesia ketimbang metode peramalan inflasi dengan menggunakan data informasi makroekonomi lampau (backward-looking). Analisa dilakukan dengan membandingkan model runtun waktu naif, satu peubah, dan peubah ganda dengan periode Januari 2014–Desember 2016 digunakan sebagai periode evaluasi sampel peramalan. Tulisan ini menyimpulkan bahwa performa peramalan metode backward-looking lebih unggul dari pada metode forward-looking untuk setiap jangka waktu peramalan yang mengindikasikan bahwa Bank Indonesia masih belum berhasil dalam mengendalikan ekspektasi publik terhadap inflasi ketingkat yang diinginkan.Kata kunci: Inflasi; Forward-Looking; Backward-Looking; ARMA; VARJEL classifications: C22; C32; E31; E37; E52

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