Adaptive stochastic risk estimation of firm operating profit

Author(s):  
Ahmet Akca ◽  
Ethem Çanakoğlu
Author(s):  
W.N. Reynolds

Following the 2007/08 drought, we experienced poor pasture production and persistence on our dairy farm in north Waikato, leading to decreased milksolids production and a greater reliance on bought-in feed. It is estimated that the cost of this to our farming operation was about $1300 per hectare per year in lost operating profit. While climate and black beetle were factors, they did not explain everything, and other factors were also involved. In the last 3 years we have changed our management strategies to better withstand dry summers, the catalyst for which was becoming the DairyNZ Pasture Improvement Focus Farm for the north Waikato. The major changes we made were to reduce stocking rate, actively manage pastures in summer to reduce over-grazing, and pay more attention to detail in our pasture renewal programme. To date the result has been a reduced need for pasture renewal, a lift in whole farm performance and increased profitability. Keywords: Focus farm, over-grazing, pasture management, pasture persistence, profitability


2015 ◽  
Vol 77 ◽  
pp. 29-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.C. Beukes ◽  
S. Mccarthy ◽  
C.M. Wims ◽  
A.J. Romera

Paddock selection is an important component of grazing management and is based on either some estimate of pasture mass (cover) or the interval since last grazing for each paddock. Obtaining estimates of cover to guide grazing management can be a time consuming task. A value proposition could assist farmers in deciding whether to invest resources in obtaining such information. A farm-scale simulation exercise was designed to estimate the effect of three levels of knowledge of individual paddock cover on profitability: 1) "perfect knowledge", where cover per paddock is known with perfect accuracy, 2) "imperfect knowledge", where cover per paddock is estimated with an average error of 15%, 3) "low knowledge", where cover is not known, and paddocks are selected based on longest time since last grazing. Grazing management based on imperfect knowledge increased farm operating profit by approximately $385/ha compared with low knowledge, while perfect knowledge added a further $140/ha. The main driver of these results is the level of accuracy in daily feed allocation, which increases with improving knowledge of pasture availability. This allows feed supply and demand to be better matched, resulting in less incidence of under- and over-feeding, higher milk production, and more optimal post-grazing residuals to maximise pasture regrowth. Keywords: modelling, paddock selection, pasture cover


1994 ◽  
Vol 50 (5) ◽  
pp. 69-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sangit Chatterjee ◽  
William E. Jacques
Keyword(s):  

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