scholarly journals Epidemiokinetic Tools to Monitor Lockdown Efficacy and Estimate the Duration Adequate to Control SARS-CoV-2 Spread

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 321-325
Author(s):  
Bruno Mégarbane ◽  
Fanchon Bourasset ◽  
Jean-Michel Scherrmann
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Time Course ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Hospital Organization ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Health Objectives

AbstractVarious key performance indicators (KPIs) are communicated daily to the public by health authorities since the COVID-19 pandemic has started. “Upstream” KPIs mainly include the incidence of detected Sars-CoV-2-positive cases in the population, and “downstream” KPIs include daily hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions and fatalities. Whereas “downstream” KPIs are essential to evaluate and adapt hospital organization, “upstream” KPIs are the most appropriate to decide on the strength of restrictions such as lockdown set up and evaluate their effectiveness. Here, we suggested tools derived from pharmacokinetic calculations to improve understanding the epidemic progression. From the time course of the number of new cases of SARS-coV-2 infection in the population, it is possible to calculate the infection rate constant using a simple linear regression and determine its corresponding half-life. This epidemic regression half-life is helpful to measure the potential benefits of restriction measures and to estimate the adequate duration of lockdown if implemented by policymakers in relation to the decided public health objectives. In France, during the first lockdown, we reported an epidemic half-life of 10 days. Our tools allow clearly acknowledging that the zero-COVID target is difficult to reach after a period of lockdown as seven half-lives are required to clear 99.2% of the epidemic and more than 10 half-lives to almost reach the objective of eliminating 100% of the contaminations.

Unit processes in the formation of representations in the memory of Octopus

1960 ◽  
Vol 153 (950) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Nervous System ◽  
Half Life ◽  
Time Course ◽  
The Other ◽  
Effect Of Food ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The One ◽  
High Level ◽  
Successive Feeding

An index of the changes in responsiveness of octopuses to moving figures can be obtained by studying a set of animals and recording the number of them that come out to attack on each occasion, and the delay. During the period of 1 to 2 h after feeding, untrained octopuses show an increased tendency to attack. This period of increased attacks corresponds to that for which food remains within the crop. However, such attacks do not result in the setting up in the memory of representations that promote later attacks. If food is given after showing a figure the tendency to attack is greatly increased. It remains at a high level for longer than when the food is given before showing, but ultimately declines. However, if the figure is presented again with food within 10 to 24 h the tendency to attack is raised still higher and declines more slowly. After a number of such presentations the animals come out regularly to attack the figure. The changes in tendency to respond after each showing of the figure with food thus provide an estimate of the time course of decay of the increased excitability in certain pathways in the nervous system. The half-life of the change after the first rewarded presentation is 1 to 2 h. Similarly it is possible to map the time course of the reduced tendency to attack that follows the giving of a shock after attack on a moving figure. This time depends on the extent to which the figure had previously been made ‘positive’ by association with food. By successive feeding and shocking the tendency to attack a given figure by a group of octopuses can thus be raised and lowered. The effects are partly general to all moving figures, but are greater for those that resemble the figure shown when the food (or shock) was administered. Using this effect animals can be trained without shocks to attack certain figures but not others, pathways ‘representing’ these figures having been specifically facilitated by feeding. In octopuses without vertical lobes the effects of food or shock in increasing or lowering the tendency to attack are similar to those in normal animals, but persist for a shorter tune. In these animals lasting representations ensuring or preventing attack are less readily set up. When food is given as reward for attacks at one figure, shocks for a different one, normal octopuses learn within a few trials to attack the one and avoid the other. In animals without vertical lobes the effect of food is to increase the tendency to attack both figures and the effect of shocks is to depress the attacks on both. With alternate trials the tendency to attack thus swings up and down, the animals responding according to the influence of the immediately previous stimulus. The effect of the vertical lobe is therefore to ensure persistence in the memory of appropriate distinct representations of the figures and the associated food or shock, so that there are ‘correct’ responses after a few trials.

Water Pollution and Its Impact on Environment of Society

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Thyagaraju
Keyword(s):  
Water Pollution ◽  
Pollution Prevention ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government ◽  
Living Organisms ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Biological Entities ◽  
Micro Organisms

The present seminar paper mainly highlight  the concept of  water pollution, causes of water pollution,  Its Effects, Elements of  pollutants, Methods  used to prevent the water pollution in environment  and the mandatory initiatives taken by the concerned authorities for prevention of  water pollution. Water   is essential for survival of all living organisms on the earth. Thus for human beings and plants to survive on land, water should be easily accessible. The term “Pollution” is generally refers to addition of any foreign body either living or non – living or deletion of anything that naturally exists. The basic Sources of Water pollution causes due to Culmination into lakes, rivers, ponds, seas, oceans etc. Domestic drainage and sanitary waste, Industrial drainage and sewage, Industrial waste from factories, Dumping of domestic garbage, Immersion of Idols made of plaster of Paris, Excess use of Insecticides , pesticides, fungicides, Chemical fertilizers, Soil erosion during heavy rains and floods, Natural disasters, tsunami etc. General pollutants  which are also caused for water pollution  which include Organic, Inorganic, and Biological entities, Insecticides, Pesticides, Disinfectants ,Detergents, Industrial solvents, Acids, Ammonia fertilizers, heavy metals, Harmful bacteria, Virus, Micro –Organisms and worms, Toxic chemicals. Agricultural lands become infertile and thereby production also drops, Spread of epidemic diseases like Cholera, Dysentery, Typhoid, Diarrhea, Hepatitis, Jaundice etc. The  basic responsibility of the Government, NGOs, National Pioneer scientific Research Institutions may conduct  research oriented programs on control of water pollution by create  awareness among the public through mass media and Environmental Education on recycling units,  and  water treatment plants must be established both at domestic levels and Industry levels, Every citizen must feel responsible to control water pollution. There have been many water pollution prevention acts that have been set up by the governments of the world. But these are not enough for permanent water pollution solutions. Each of us needs to take up the responsibility and do something at an everyday at individual level. Otherwise we can’t survive in a society forever in a future. 

scholarly journals Astronomy to understand a human environment

1998 ◽  
Vol 162 ◽  
pp. 211-213
Author(s):  
S. Isobe
Keyword(s):  
School System ◽  
Environmental Science ◽  
The Other ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Science Courses ◽  
The Public ◽  
Global Environmental Problems ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Set Up ◽  
School Period

Astronomy is an important science in understanding a human environment. However, it is thought by most politicians, economists, and members of the public that astronomy is a pure science having no contribution to daily human activities except a few matters relating to time. The Japanese government is studying a reorganisation of our school system to have 5 school days per week, instead of 6 days per week, and this July its committee made a recommendation to reduce school hours for science and set up new courses for practical computers and environmental science. I currently made a proposal. It is very difficult for most of the school pupils, who will have non-scientific jobs, to understand science courses currently taught in school, because each science is taught independently from the other sciences. Therefore, their knowledge of sciences obtained during their school period does not greatly help their understanding of global environmental problems.

Scottish Health Authorities Revenue Equalisation

1978 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-212 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. D. Forwell
Keyword(s):  
Equal Opportunity ◽  
Working Party ◽  
Health Department ◽  
Individual Health ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Comprehensive Examination ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Urban Deprivation ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Health Boards

A working party was set up by the Scottish Home and Health Department to consider the system of allocation of money to health boards. The system advocated (SHARE Report) is predictable from the NHS structure and the analogous report (RAWP) in England. The Secretary of State has announced his decision to accept SHARE in general principle. In principle, the Report is to be welcomed as a first step toward rationalising the distribution of health service money. However, work already published suggests the assumptions in SHARE require examination. SHARE would encourage individual health boards to plan for their own populations although thereby the greatest improvement in health services in Scotland may not be achieved. The SHARE objective of equal opportunity of securing access is open to various interpretations. Emphasis is laid on the recommendation in the Report for a comprehensive examination of the inter-relationship of social circumstances (in particular, urban deprivation), morbidity and mortality.

scholarly journals A multipurpose tool to evaluate the nutritional quality of individual foods: Nutrimap®

2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 690-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
E Labouze ◽  
C Goffi ◽  
L Moulay ◽  
V Azaïs-Braesco
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Nutritional Quality ◽  
Nutritional Composition ◽  
Consumer Information ◽  
Food Category ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Public Health Authorities ◽  
Nutritional Needs ◽  
Health Objectives

AbstractBackground/objectivesWith obesity and nutrition-related diseases rising, public health authorities have recently insisted nutritional quality be included when advertising and labelling food. The concept of nutritional quality is, however, difficult to define. In this paper we present an innovative, science-based nutrient profiling system, Nutrimap®, which quantifies nutritional assets and weaknesses of foods.MethodsThe position of a food is defined according to its nutritional composition, food category, the consumer's nutritional needs, consumption data and major public health objectives for nutrition. Amounts of each of 15 relevant nutrients (in 100 kcal) are scored according to their ability to ‘rebalance’ or ‘unbalance’ the supply in the whole diet, compared with current recommendations and intakes. These scores are weighted differently in different food categories according to the measured relevance of the category to a nutrient's supply. Positive (assets) and negative (weaknesses) scores are totalled separately.ResultsNutrimap®provides an overall estimate of the nutritional quality of same-category foods, enabling easy comparisons as exemplified for cereals and fruit/vegetables. Results are consistent with major nutritional recommendations and match classifications provided by other systems. Simulations for breakfasts show that Nutrimap®can help design meals of controlled nutritional value.ConclusionsCombining objective scientific bases with pragmatic concerns, Nutrimap®appears to be effective in comparing food items. Decision-makers can set their own limits within the Nutrimap®-defined assets and weaknesses of foods and reach categorisations consistent with their objectives – from regulatory purposes to consumer information or support for designing meals (catering) or new products (food industry).

Showcasing Science

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Art Museum ◽  
Scientific Instrument ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Role ◽  
Electrostatic Generator ◽  
History Of ◽  
World Class ◽  
Hendrik Antoon Lorentz ◽  
Set Up

Teylers Museum was founded in 1784 and soon thereafter became one of the most important centres of Dutch science. The Museum’s first director, Martinus van Marum, famously had the world’s largest electrostatic generator built and set up in Haarlem. This subsequently became the most prominent item in the Museum’s world-class, publicly accessible, and constantly growing collections. These comprised scientific instruments, mineralogical and palaeontological specimens, prints, drawings, paintings, and coins. Van Marum’s successors continued to uphold the institution’s prestige and use the collections for research purposes, while it was increasingly perceived as an art museum by the public. In the early twentieth century, the Nobel Prize laureate Hendrik Antoon Lorentz was appointed head of the scientific instrument collection and conducted experiments on the Museum’s premises. Showcasing Science: A History of Teylers Museum in the Nineteenth Century charts the history of Teylers Museum from its inception until Lorentz’ tenure. From the vantage point of the Museum’s scientific instrument collection, this book gives an analysis of the changing public role of Teylers Museum over the course of the nineteenth century.

La réforme régionale italienne : Un bilan à l'occasion des élections régionales des 8 et 9 juin 1980

Res Publica ◽  
1980 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 547-562
Author(s):  
Catherine Guillermet ◽  
Johan Ryngaert
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Communist Party ◽  
Central Government ◽  
The Political ◽  
Geographical Differences ◽  
The Public ◽  
Political Bargaining ◽  
Italian Regions ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Political Differences

Ten years after they were set up, the Italian regions have fallen into general discredit. They are discredited by the central government who regards them as a source of support for the opposing Communist Party and has sought to undermine this reform by depriving the regions of all true autonomy. The regions are discredited by the public opinion by not fulfilling the expectations placed in them. Such an assessment does not stand up to a close examination of regional practices : some geographical differences rapidly become obvious, but especially evident are the political differences. In fact, the regions are the product of an apparent agreement between the political parties and have always suffered from political bargaining which explains the national scale of the issues raised at the last elections. Strengthened by the favorable results obtained in certain regions, the Communist Party was quick to turn this statement of the electoral opinion into a « referendum » about the newly formed Cossiga government.

Research from China finds no significant difference in impact of public service motivation (PSM) in public and private sectors

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Employee Performance ◽  
Intention To Leave ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The authors assumed PSM would be higher in the public sector, but they set up a trial to find out if this was the case. Design/methodology/approach To test their theories, the authors conducted two independent surveys. The first consisted of 220 usable responses from public sector employees in Changsha, China. The second survey involved 260 usable responses from private sector employees taking an MBA course at a university in the Changsha district. A questionnaire was used to assess attitudes. Findings The results found no significant difference between the impact of public sector motivation (PSM) on employee performance across the public and private sectors. The data showed that PSM had a significant impact on self-reported employee performance, but the relationship did not differ much between sectors. Meanwhile, it was in the private sector that PSM had the greatest impact on intention to leave. Originality/value The authors said the research project was one of the first to test if the concept of PSM operated in the same way across sectors. It also contributed, they said, to the ongoing debate about PSM in China.

How prediction statistics can help us cope when we are shaken, scared and irrational

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yavor Kamer ◽  
Shyam Nandan ◽  
Stefan Hiemer ◽  
Guy Ouillon ◽  
Didier Sornette
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Earthquake Forecasting ◽  
Skill Assessment ◽  
Surveillance Network ◽  
The Public ◽  
Predictive Skill ◽  
Earthquake Predictability ◽  
Set Up

<p>Nature is scary. You can be sitting at your home and next thing you know you are trapped under the ruble of your own house or sucked into a sinkhole. For millions of years we have been the figurines of this precarious scene and we have found our own ways of dealing with the anxiety. It is natural that we create and consume prophecies, conspiracies and false predictions. Information technologies amplify not only our rational but also irrational deeds. Social media algorithms, tuned to maximize attention, make sure that misinformation spreads much faster than its counterpart.</p><p>What can we do to minimize the adverse effects of misinformation, especially in the case of earthquakes? One option could be to designate one authoritative institute, set up a big surveillance network and cancel or ban every source of misinformation before it spreads. This might have worked a few centuries ago but not in this day and age. Instead we propose a more inclusive option: embrace all voices and channel them into an actual, prospective earthquake prediction platform (Kamer et al. 2020). The platform is powered by a global state-of-the-art statistical earthquake forecasting model that provides near real-time earthquake occurrence probabilities anywhere on the globe (Nandan et al. 2020). Using this model as a benchmark in statistical metrics specifically tailored to the prediction problem, we are able to distill all these voices and quantify the essence of predictive skill. This approach has several advantages. Rather than trying to silence or denounce, we listen and evaluate each claim and report the predictive skill of the source. We engage the public and allow them to take part in a scientific experiment that will increase their risk awareness. We effectively demonstrate that anybody with an internet connected device can make an earthquake prediction, but that it is not so trivial to achieve skillful predictive performance.</p><p>Here we shall present initial results from our global earthquake prediction experiment that we have been conducting on www.richterx.com for the past two years, yielding more than 10,000 predictions. These results will hopefully demystify the act of predicting an earthquake in the eyes of the public, and next time someone forwards a prediction message it would arouse more scrutiny than panic or distaste.<br><br>Nandan, S., Kamer, Y., Ouillon, G., Hiemer, S., Sornette, D. (2020). <em>Global models for short-term earthquake forecasting and predictive skill assessment</em>. European Physical Journal ST. doi: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000259-3<br>Kamer, Y., Nandan, S., Ouillon, G., Hiemer, S., Sornette, D. (2020). <em>Democratizing earthquake predictability research: introducing the RichterX platform.</em> European Physical Journal ST. doi: 10.1140/epjst/e2020-000260-2 </p>

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