Estimation on probability of radiological hazards for nuclear facilities decommissioning based on fuzzy and event tree method

This work is typical of the efforts of the gifted practitioner concerned with an important problem encountered in pediatric practice. It has all the limitations which time and sampling impose and does not satisfy the more precise investigative criteria for control populations, statistical treatment and other considerations which further studies by this group may encompass. It represents an effort which seeks a practical solution and it enlists allies in a well known safety organization. It is the method of collaboration and the clues that are developed which makes this paper a vital contribution. The practitioner requires supportive workers in this type of investigation, but is in a superb position to give additional information about the child and his family, and to implement findings that might be related to prevention. The "event tree" method of study and action which is proposed and illustrated offers a model for injury control of many types. Community workers who are concerned about the problem of falls as the leading method of childhood injury are hereby offered a useful method of study which does not require extensive or complicated efforts. The leads that the paper offers with respect to cultural differences in types of falls and circumstances should be explored. It is unclear either in this work or in the literature whether the method of control posters, campaigns, etc. are indeed effective or not. All existing methods of fall control should be encouraged as they raise the level of awareness of the hazards to children, but a number of investigators have indicated that it is the mother's attitude and distractions from childbearing which offer a strong current of causation. Approaches with the same population using evaluated techniques suggested by the authors are a next step.

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Hybrid Event Tree Analysis of Ship Grounding Probability

Volume 2: Safety and Reliability; Pipeline Technology ◽

10.1115/omae2003-37343 ◽

2003 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Dianqing Li ◽

Wenyong Tang ◽

Shengkun Zhang

Keyword(s):

Failure Probability ◽

Human Error ◽

Sensitivity Index ◽

Event Tree ◽

Fuzzy Probability ◽

Event Tree Analysis ◽

Probability Of Occurrence ◽

Ship Grounding ◽

Tree Method ◽

Hybrid Event

The probability of occurrence of human-error-dominated event can not be effectively handled by using conventional event tree method. Furthermore, it is impossible to consider the sensitivity and uncertainty of basic events’ probabilities in conventional event tree method. To overcome these disadvantages, the concepts of the fuzzy error rate and the fuzzy error possibility were introduced to represent the failure probability of human-error-dominated event, while the fuzzy probability was used to represent the failure probability of non-human-error-dominated event. Based on them, the fuzzy probability of ship grounding with piloting failure was calculated by hybrid event tree method. Moreover, the fuzzy sensitivity index and the fuzzy uncertainty index were defined. Some grounding probability reducing measures were verified by sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results indicate that the proposed approach is very useful in analyzing the probability of occurrence of human-error-dominated event.

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Optimal selection of voltage sag mitigation solution based on event tree method

2012 Electric Power Quality and Supply Reliability ◽

10.1109/pq.2012.6256214 ◽

2012 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Muhammad Yasir ◽

Shahram Kazemi ◽

Matti Lehtonen ◽

Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

Keyword(s):

Voltage Sag ◽

Optimal Selection ◽

Event Tree ◽

Tree Method ◽

Selection Of

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PENILAIAN RISIKO KEGAGALAN BENDUNGAN KEDUNGOMBO SEBAGAI DASAR PRIORITAS PEMELIHARAAN BENDUNGAN

JMTS: Jurnal Mitra Teknik Sipil ◽

10.24912/jmts.v0i0.12616 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 557

Author(s):

Rais Buldan ◽

Suharyanto Suharyanto ◽

Sriyana Sriyana

Keyword(s):

Traditional Method ◽

Probability Of Failure ◽

Event Tree ◽

Acceptable Risk ◽

Safety Hazards ◽

Performance Function ◽

Priority Systems ◽

Risk Probability ◽

The Status ◽

Tree Method

A dams must always be maintained for their performance, function, and safety, so it is necessary to carry out various maintenance, repairs, and rehabilitation on dams that have been built and operating. Priority systems for the implementation of repair and rehabilitation of dams can be arranged based on the status of safety hazards or the level of risk of failure due to natural disasters or other consequences. Based on this, it is necessary to carry out an assessment of the dam to estimate the magnitude of the risk to the dam. According to the Risk Analysis Guidelines, the estimation of the probability of failure can be done using two methods, namely the traditional method and the event tree method. Based on the results of assessment analysis, the risk probability of the Kedungombo Dam with the traditional method and the event tree method is 4,010 x 10-1 and 1,548 x 10-3 where the acceptable limit conditions for the existing dam are a maximum of 1,000 x 10-5. The risk probability value of the Kedungombo Dam does not meet the requirements of an acceptable risk value. Therefore, it is necessary to recommend risk reduction for the risk assessment results. ABSTRAKBendungan harus selalu dijaga kinerja operasi, fungsi, dan keamanannya, sehingga perlu dilakukan berbagai kegiatan pemeliharaan, perbaikan, dan rehabilitasi pada bendungan yang sudah terbangun dan beroperasi. Sistem prioritas pada pelaksanaan kegiatan perbaikan dan rehabilitasi pada bendungan dapat disusun berdasarkan status bahaya bendungan dari segi keamanan atau besarnya risiko terhadap kegagalan bendungan akibat bencana alam maupun akibat lain. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, maka perlu dilakukan penilaian risiko pada bendungan untuk memperkirakan besarnya risiko bahaya pada bendungan. Berdasarkan Pedoman Analisis Risiko, perkiraan probabilitas kegagalan dapat dilakukan dengan dua metode yaitu metode tradisional dan metode pohon kejadian (event tree). Berdasarkan hasil analisis penilaian risiko, probabilitas risiko Bendungan Kedungombo metode tradisional dan metode pohon kejadian sebesar 4,010 x 10-1 dan 1,548 x 10-3 dimana syarat batas yang dapat diterima untuk bendungan eksisting maksimum 1,000 x 10-5. Nilai probabilitas risiko Bendungan Kedungombo tidak memenihi syarat nilai risiko yang dapat diterima. Dengan demikian, diperlukan rekomendasi tindakan pengurangan risiko untuk risiko hasil penilaian tersebut.

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Analysis and risk assessment of risk technical systems to develop of methodology for teaching students using the method event tree (event tree analysis)

Yearbook Telecommunications ◽

10.33919/ytelecomm.19.6.7 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 ◽

pp. 63-73

Author(s):

Tsvetelina Simeonova

Keyword(s):

Risk Assessment ◽

Risk Analysis ◽

Event Tree ◽

Event Tree Analysis ◽

Tree Analysis ◽

Sample Sequence ◽

Student Training ◽

Technical Systems ◽

Risk Analysis And Management ◽

Tree Method

The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for risk analysis, assessment and management using the event tree method. A sample sequence of risk analysis actions is shown with the use the event tree method in determining the probability of realizing a dangerous event including an exemplary event tree pattern according the example under consideration and with the possibility of calculations and for determining the risk at the accepted value of the damage. A methodology for risk analysis is proposed based on the event tree applicable to student training on risk analysis and management.

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Risk analysis in the implementation of a Medalj stream regulation project

Glasnik Sumarskog fakulteta ◽

10.2298/gsf2022091n ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 91-106

Author(s):

Petar Neskovic ◽

Nada Dragovic ◽

Tijana Vulevic ◽

Jelena Panic

Keyword(s):

Risk Analysis ◽

Fault Tree ◽

Event Tree ◽

Risk Matrix ◽

Unexpected Events ◽

Risk Event ◽

Fmea Method ◽

Tree Method ◽

Event Occurrence ◽

Level Of Risk

During the construction of the regulation of a watercourse, a large number of unexpected events can occur and increase the risk associated with the project hindering its successful realization. Risk events can result in breaking deadlines, increasing costs, reducing quality, etc. This paper analyzes the risk in the implementation of the Medalj stream regulation project, using the appropriate method that gives the best results for each phase of the risk analysis. Thus, the HAZOP method was used to identify risk events, the risk matrix to define the level of risk, the FMEA method to propose actions to reduce the possibility of risk event occurrence, the Fault tree method to determine the cause of risk event occurrence and the Event tree method to determine possible outcomes of risk events. The obtained results showed that the key risk event was ?Only a part of the planned soil excavated?, so the paper will present the results related to earthworks, although the analysis referred to the entire project.

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Application of the FTA and ETA Method for Gas Hazard Identification for the Performance of Safety Systems in the Industrial Department

Management Systems in Production Engineering ◽

10.2478/mspe-2018-0003 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 26 (1) ◽

pp. 23-26

Author(s):

Jolanta Ignac-Nowicka

Keyword(s):

Hazard Identification ◽

Event Tree ◽

Human Errors ◽

Gas Industry ◽

Threat Analysis ◽

Gas Hazard ◽

Technical Risks ◽

Basic Features ◽

Safety Systems ◽

Tree Method

Abstract The paper analyzes the conditions of safe use of industrial gas systems and factors influencing gas hazards. Typical gas installation and its basic features have been characterized. The results of gas threat analysis in an industrial enterprise using FTA error tree method and ETA event tree method are presented. Compares selected methods of identifying hazards gas industry with respect to the scope of their use. The paper presents an analysis of two exemplary hazards: an industrial gas catastrophe (FTA) and an explosive gas explosion (ETA). In both cases, technical risks and human errors (human factor) were taken into account. The cause-effect relationships of hazards and their causes are presented in the form of diagrams in the drawings.

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