scholarly journals PENILAIAN RISIKO KEGAGALAN BENDUNGAN KEDUNGOMBO SEBAGAI DASAR PRIORITAS PEMELIHARAAN BENDUNGAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 557
Author(s):  
Rais Buldan ◽  
Suharyanto Suharyanto ◽  
Sriyana Sriyana
Keyword(s):  
Traditional Method ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Safety Hazards ◽  
Performance Function ◽  
Priority Systems ◽  
Risk Probability ◽  
The Status ◽  
Tree Method

A dams must always be maintained for their performance, function, and safety, so it is necessary to carry out various maintenance, repairs, and rehabilitation on dams that have been built and operating. Priority systems for the implementation of repair and rehabilitation of dams can be arranged based on the status of safety hazards or the level of risk of failure due to natural disasters or other consequences. Based on this, it is necessary to carry out an assessment of the dam to estimate the magnitude of the risk to the dam. According to the Risk Analysis Guidelines, the estimation of the probability of failure can be done using two methods, namely the traditional method and the event tree method. Based on the results of assessment analysis, the risk probability of the Kedungombo Dam with the traditional method and the event tree method is 4,010 x 10-1 and 1,548 x 10-3 where the acceptable limit conditions for the existing dam are a maximum of 1,000 x 10-5. The risk probability value of the Kedungombo Dam does not meet the requirements of an acceptable risk value. Therefore, it is necessary to recommend risk reduction for the risk assessment results. ABSTRAKBendungan harus selalu dijaga kinerja operasi, fungsi, dan keamanannya, sehingga perlu dilakukan berbagai kegiatan pemeliharaan, perbaikan, dan rehabilitasi pada bendungan yang sudah terbangun dan beroperasi. Sistem prioritas pada pelaksanaan kegiatan perbaikan dan rehabilitasi pada bendungan dapat disusun berdasarkan status bahaya bendungan dari segi keamanan atau besarnya risiko terhadap kegagalan bendungan akibat bencana alam maupun akibat lain. Berdasarkan hal tersebut, maka perlu dilakukan penilaian risiko pada bendungan untuk memperkirakan besarnya risiko bahaya pada bendungan. Berdasarkan Pedoman Analisis Risiko, perkiraan probabilitas kegagalan dapat dilakukan dengan dua metode yaitu metode tradisional dan metode pohon kejadian (event tree). Berdasarkan hasil analisis penilaian risiko, probabilitas risiko Bendungan Kedungombo metode tradisional dan metode pohon kejadian sebesar 4,010 x 10-1 dan 1,548 x 10-3 dimana syarat batas yang dapat diterima untuk bendungan eksisting maksimum 1,000 x 10-5. Nilai probabilitas risiko Bendungan Kedungombo tidak memenihi syarat nilai risiko yang dapat diterima. Dengan demikian, diperlukan rekomendasi tindakan pengurangan risiko untuk risiko hasil penilaian tersebut. 

scholarly journals Evaluation of flood risk as a step in determining the “Acceptable Risk” criteria. Case study: Dengkeng River, Klaten, Central Java

2021 ◽  
Vol 894 (1) ◽  
pp. 012045
Author(s):  
A Sarminingsih ◽  
M Hadiwidodo
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Public Works ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Performance Function ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Flood Discharge ◽  
Potential Risks

Abstract The planning of a flood control system in Indonesia is based on the planning criteria issued by the Ministry of Public Works. Flood control planning is based on flood discharge with a specific return period depending on the order of the river and the number of protected populations. Flood events in areas where the flood control system has been planned continue to occur almost every year, meaning that the probability of being exceeded is not as planned. This study is intended to evaluate the criteria for the magnitude of the designed flood discharge in flood control planning that considers the acceptable risk. Potential risks are evaluated against system reliability. The probability of failure of the flood control system occurs if the resistance is smaller than the load expressed as a performance function. By knowing the performance function associated with the level of flood risk, then the flood discharge can be selected with the appropriate return period according to the acceptable risk.

Risk Assessment of Enterprise Merger and Acquisition Based on Event Tree Method and Fuzzy Set Theory

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 4819-4825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guang-Rong Li ◽  
Chun-He Li ◽  
Xiu-Hong Niu ◽  
Li-Ping Yang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Merger And Acquisition ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Tree Method

Estimation on probability of radiological hazards for nuclear facilities decommissioning based on fuzzy and event tree method

2011 ◽  
Vol 38 (11) ◽  
pp. 2606-2611 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kwan-Seong Jeong ◽  
Kune-Woo Lee ◽  
Seong-Young Jeong ◽  
Hyeon-Kyo Lim
Keyword(s):  
Event Tree ◽  
Nuclear Facilities ◽  
Radiological Hazards ◽  
Tree Method

Computational Models to Predict the Structural Reliability of Aerospace Systems

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert G. Tryon ◽  
Animesh Dey ◽  
Richard A. Holmes ◽  
Ganapathi Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Performance Function ◽  
Auxiliary Power Unit ◽  
Auxiliary Power ◽  
Statistical Variation ◽  
Commercial Airline ◽  
Reliability Method ◽  
Turbine Disks

Three case studies are presented in which computational-based methodologies have been used to assess structural reliability in the aerospace industry. The studies involve hot section turbine disks of a helicopter engine, fan blades of a commercial airline engine and bearings in an auxiliary power unit. In all cases, the results of the computational models were used to support the certification process for design and application changes. The statistical variation in design and usage parameters including geometry, materials, speed, temperature and other environmental factors are considered. The response surface approach was used to construct a durability performance function. This performance function is used with the first order reliability method (FORM) to determine the probability of failure and the sensitivity of the failure to the design and usage parameters. A hybrid combination of perturbation analysis and Monte Carlo simulation is used to incorporate time dependent random variables. System reliability is used to determine the system probability of failure, and the sensitivity of the system durability to the design and usage parameters.

Analysis of domino effect in the process industry using the event tree method

2017 ◽  
Vol 97 ◽  
pp. 10-19 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nassim Alileche ◽  
Damien Olivier ◽  
Lionel Estel ◽  
Valerio Cozzani
Keyword(s):  
Process Industry ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
Tree Method

scholarly journals A TRIZ Approach to Reliable Megaproject Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Chen ◽  
Andrew Agapiou ◽  
Heng Li ◽  
Qian Xu
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Research And Development ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
System Reliability ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Relevant Evidence ◽  
System Reliability Analysis ◽  
Strategic Review ◽  
The Status

Purposes: This article presents a recent research into megaproject sustainability with a particular focus on identifying a structure of its body of knowledge so as to establish the methodology of megaproject assessment on sustainability (MAS), which consists of a research roadmap toward megaproject sustainability and a system reliability analysis. In response to the research topic on “Reviews for Advanced Construction Management” at Frontiers in Built Environment, this article aims to make a contribution with the description about a generic approach to conducting literature review based on a whole range of relevant evidence in a systemic way.Methodology: The research described in this article is underpinned by the use of several methods. The nine-square process (NSP) of Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) is the method for facilitating a systemic evidence-based learning (EBL) process to identify further research into MAS. A normal process to establish research roadmap was then introduced to summarize what has been identified as specific research tasks alongside lifecycle processes on megaproject delivery, to which RIBA Plan of Work 2020 was adopted as the prototype. An event tree analysis (ETA) was eventually introduced by incorporating the novel measurements on system reliability to support quantitative MAS in terms of both practices and research.Findings: This article presents several findings from the described research, and these include that the use of NSP led to the formation of a systematic procedure for literature review, a procedure to support MAS, a research roadmap to facilitate efforts to be made for megaproject sustainability, and the feasibility of system reliability analysis to measure the status of sustainability underpinned by research and practices throughout megaproject lifecycle.Implications: The described research provides four modules to foster further research into megaproject sustainability, and these include a TRIZ-based module to facilitate systemic literature review for EBL, a lifecycle process module for MAS, a prototype research roadmap to guide research and development for megaproject sustainability, and an ETA module to support a system reliability analysis in the dynamic process of research and practices toward megaproject sustainability.Value: The research described in this article has made an initial effort to conduct a strategic review, development, analysis, and discussion about tactics for research and development toward megaproject sustainability. Research findings can be used for related research and practices with regard to technical guidance and best practices in megaproject delivery.

ACCIDENTAL FALLS FROM ELEVATED SURFACES IN INFANTS FROM BIRTH TO ONE YEAR OF AGE

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1969 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 869-876
Author(s):  
Harvey Kravitz ◽  
Gerald Driessen ◽  
Raymond Gomberg ◽  
Alvin Korach
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Differences ◽  
Statistical Treatment ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Pediatric Practice ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Strong Current ◽  
One Year ◽  
Injury Control ◽  
Tree Method ◽  
Investigative Criteria

This work is typical of the efforts of the gifted practitioner concerned with an important problem encountered in pediatric practice. It has all the limitations which time and sampling impose and does not satisfy the more precise investigative criteria for control populations, statistical treatment and other considerations which further studies by this group may encompass. It represents an effort which seeks a practical solution and it enlists allies in a well known safety organization. It is the method of collaboration and the clues that are developed which makes this paper a vital contribution. The practitioner requires supportive workers in this type of investigation, but is in a superb position to give additional information about the child and his family, and to implement findings that might be related to prevention. The "event tree" method of study and action which is proposed and illustrated offers a model for injury control of many types. Community workers who are concerned about the problem of falls as the leading method of childhood injury are hereby offered a useful method of study which does not require extensive or complicated efforts. The leads that the paper offers with respect to cultural differences in types of falls and circumstances should be explored. It is unclear either in this work or in the literature whether the method of control posters, campaigns, etc. are indeed effective or not. All existing methods of fall control should be encouraged as they raise the level of awareness of the hazards to children, but a number of investigators have indicated that it is the mother's attitude and distractions from childbearing which offer a strong current of causation. Approaches with the same population using evaluated techniques suggested by the authors are a next step.

Hybrid Event Tree Analysis of Ship Grounding Probability

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dianqing Li ◽  
Wenyong Tang ◽  
Shengkun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Failure Probability ◽  
Human Error ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Fuzzy Probability ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Ship Grounding ◽  
Tree Method ◽  
Hybrid Event

The probability of occurrence of human-error-dominated event can not be effectively handled by using conventional event tree method. Furthermore, it is impossible to consider the sensitivity and uncertainty of basic events’ probabilities in conventional event tree method. To overcome these disadvantages, the concepts of the fuzzy error rate and the fuzzy error possibility were introduced to represent the failure probability of human-error-dominated event, while the fuzzy probability was used to represent the failure probability of non-human-error-dominated event. Based on them, the fuzzy probability of ship grounding with piloting failure was calculated by hybrid event tree method. Moreover, the fuzzy sensitivity index and the fuzzy uncertainty index were defined. Some grounding probability reducing measures were verified by sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results indicate that the proposed approach is very useful in analyzing the probability of occurrence of human-error-dominated event.

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