Improving productivity of Australian wheat by adapting sowing date and genotype phenology to future climate

As sowing dates are critical for appropriate yield forecasting, a national survey of Australian wheat farmers was undertaken. This revealed that wheat sowing generally takes 2-4 weeks to complete between the middle of May and the middle of June. Distinct regional differences occur in the way sowing is completed and these are related to soil and climatic effects. In Western Australia, sowing follows a more distinct `break in the season" and the midpoint of farm sowing is fairly uniform across cropping areas. As one progresses into south-eastern and then north-eastern cropping areas the spatial variability in sowing increases. The combination of fallowing practices, unreliable autumn rainfall, and heavier soils (that delay operations when conditions are wet or dry), all add to the variability in sowing date and sowing duration in north-eastern areas. The range of midpoint in sowing (between years) generally decreases as the progression is made from a farm, to a State, to a national scale. Reduced variability at a national scale is enhanced by broad-scale weather patterns causing sowing opportunities to contrast markedly on different sides of the country. During the 1980s, sowing progressed a day earlier per year at a national scale. The most pronounced changes occurred in Queensland and Western Australia, where a 2-3-week shift to earlier sowing was recorded. Coinciding with this was a trend in all areas to reduced or minimum tillage techniques. Late opening rains in South Australia restricted early sowing opportunities during this time.

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Modelling biophysical vulnerability of wheat to future climate change: A case study in the eastern Australian wheat belt

Ecological Indicators ◽

10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106290 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 114 ◽

pp. 106290 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Bin Wang ◽

Puyu Feng ◽

De Li Liu ◽

Cathy Waters

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Australian Wheat ◽

Biophysical Vulnerability

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Impacts of Future Climate Predictions on Second Season Maize in an Agrosystem on a Biome Transition Region in Mato Grosso State

Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia ◽

10.1590/0102-77863340241 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 34 (2) ◽

pp. 335-347 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Maria Carolina da Silva Andrea ◽

Rivanildo Dallacort ◽

João Danilo Barbieri ◽

Rafael Cesar Tieppo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Practices ◽

Field Experiments ◽

Sowing Date ◽

Future Climate ◽

Climate Projections ◽

Intergovernmental Panel ◽

Mato Grosso ◽

Sowing Dates ◽

Negative Impacts

Abstract Climate change promotes variations in climatic elements necessary for crop growth and development, such as temperature and rainfall, potentially impacting yields of staple crops. The objective of this study was to assess future climate projections, derived from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and their impacts on second season maize in a region of Mato Grosso state. Field experiments in the 15/16 season comprising different sowing dates and hybrids maturities in rainfed conditions were used for crop model adjustment and posterior simulation of experiments. Crop simulations comprised historical (1980-2010) and future (2010-2100) time frames combined with local crop management practices. Results showed decreases of 50-89% in grain yields, with the most pessimistic scenarios at the latest sowing date at the end of the century. Decreases in the duration of crop cycle and in the efficiency of water use were observed, indicating the negative impacts of projected higher temperatures and drier conditions in crop development. Results highlight the unfeasibility of practicing late sowing dates in second season for maize in the future, indicating the necessity of adjusting management practices so that the double-cropping production system is possible.

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Ear emergence of Australian, Mexican, and European wheats in relation to time of sowing and their response to vernalization and daylength

Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture ◽

10.1071/ea9680578 ◽

1968 ◽

Vol 8 (34) ◽

pp. 578 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

JR Syme

Keyword(s):

High Sensitivity ◽

Sowing Date ◽

Vernalization Response ◽

Wheat Varieties ◽

Early Autumn ◽

Australian Wheat ◽

Glasshouse Experiment ◽

Low Sensitivity ◽

Autumn Sowing ◽

Late Sowing

Seven Australian wheat varieties were compared with six Mexican and four European spring wheats for the influence of sowing date on time to ear emergence in the field. Their sensitivities to daylength and vernalization were compared in a glasshouse experiment. The Australian varieties were intermediate in their response to daylength. Those suited to early autumn sowing depended on their vernalization sensitivity to delay ear emergence past the frost-liable period in the spring. The European varieties, with no vernalization response, were also suited to early sowing, the delay of ear emergence depending entirely on their high sensitivity to daylength. The Mexican varieties, with nil or small vernalization response and a low sensitivity to daylength developed too rapidly for early sowing, but were more suited to late sowing than the Australian varieties.

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Assessment of crop-management strategies to improve soybean resilience to climate change in Southern Brazil

Crop and Pasture Science ◽

10.1071/cp17293 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 69 (2) ◽

pp. 154 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Rafael Battisti ◽

Paulo C. Sentelhas ◽

Phillip S. Parker ◽

Claas Nendel ◽

Gil M. De S. Câmara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Crop Management ◽

Sowing Date ◽

Future Climate ◽

Planting Density ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Southern Brazil ◽

Maturity Group ◽

Supplementary Irrigation

Management is the most important handle to improve crop yield and resilience under climate change. The aim of this study was to evaluate how irrigation, sowing date, cultivar maturity group and planting density can contribute for increasing the resilience of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) under future climate in southern Brazil. Five sites were selected to represent the range of Brazilian production systems typical for soybean cultivation. Yields were obtained from a crop-model ensemble (CROPGRO, APSIM and MONICA). Three climate scenarios were evaluated: baseline (1961–2014), and two future climate scenarios for the mid-century (2041–70) with low (+2.2°C, A1BLs) and high (+3.2°C, A1BHs) deltas for air temperature and with atmospheric [CO2] of 600 ppm. Supplementary irrigation resulted in higher and more stable yields, with gains in relation to a rainfed crop of 543, 719, 758 kg ha–1, respectively, for baseline, A1BLs and A1BHs. For sowing date, the tendencies were similar between climate scenarios, with higher yields when soybean was sown on 15 October for each simulated growing season. Cultivar maturity group 7.8 and a plant density of 50 plants m−2 resulted in higher yields in all climate scenarios. The best crop-management strategies showed similar tendency for all climate scenarios in Southern Brazil.

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Optimizing Sowing Date and Planting Density Can Mitigate the Impacts of Future Climate on Maize Yield: A Case Study in the Guanzhong Plain of China

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy11081452 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (8) ◽

pp. 1452

Author(s):

Fang Xu ◽

Bin Wang ◽

Chuan He ◽

De Li Liu ◽

Puyu Feng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Plant Density ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Sowing Date ◽

Future Climate ◽

Planting Density ◽

Summer Maize ◽

Potential Yield ◽

Adaptation Measures ◽

Spring Maize ◽

Adaptation Options

We used the APSIM-Maize model to simulate maize potential yield (Yp) and rain-fed yield (Yw) when adaptation options of sowing date and planting density were adopted under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 in the Guanzhong Plain of China. The results showed that Yp would decrease by 10.6–14.9% and 15.0–31.4% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for summer maize, and 13.9–19.7% and 18.5–36.3% for spring maize, respectively. The Yw would decrease by 17.1–19.0% and 23.6–41.1% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for summer maize, and 20.9–24.5% and 27.8–45.5% for spring maize, respectively. The loss of Yp and Yw could be reduced by 2.6–9.7% and 0–9.9%, respectively, under future climate for summer maize through countermeasures. For spring maize, the loss of Yp was mitigated by 14.0–25.0% and 2.0–21.8% for Yw. The contribution of changing sowing date and plant density on spring maize yield was more than summer maize, and the optimal adaptation options were more effective for spring maize. Additionally, the influences of changing sowing date and planting density on yields become weak as climate changes become more severe. Therefore, it is important to investigate the potential of other adaptation measures to cope with climate change in the Guanzhong Plain of China.

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Will climate change affect sugar beet establishment of the 21st century? Insights from a simulation study using a crop emergence model

10.1101/541276 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Jay Ram Lamichhane ◽

Julie Constantin ◽

Jean-Noël Aubertot ◽

Carolyne Dürr

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sugar Beet ◽

Sowing Date ◽

Crop Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Crop Establishment ◽

The Past ◽

Cumulative Rainfall ◽

Sowing Dates

AbstractOngoing climate change has been reported to have far-reaching impact on crop development and yield in many regions of the globe including Europe. However, little is known about the potential impact of climate change on specific stages of the crop cycle including crop establishment, although it is a crucial stage of the annual crop cycles. For the first time, we performed a simulation study to pinpoint how sugar beet sowing conditions of the next eight decades will be altered under future climate change and if these variations will affect sowing dates, germination and emergence as well as bolting rates of this crop. We chose Northern France as an important study site, representative of sugar beet growing basin in Northern Europe. Sugar beet emergence simulations were performed for a period between 2020 and 2100, taking into account five sowing dates (mid-February, 1st March, mid-March, 1st April and mid-April). Soil water contents and temperatures in the 0-10 cm soil horizon were first simulated with the STICS soil-crop model using the most pessimistic IPCC scenario (RCP 8.5) to feed the SIMPLE crop emergence model. We also evaluated the probability of field access for the earlier sowings, based on the amount of cumulated rainfall during February and March. When analyzed by sowing date and for successive 20-year period from 2020 to 2100, there was a significant increase in seedbed temperatures by 2°C after 2060 while no change in cumulative rainfall was found before and after sowings, compared with the past. Emergence rate was generally higher for 2081-2100, while time to reach the maximum emergence rate decreased by about one week, compared with other periods, due to higher average seedbed temperatures. The rate of non-germinated seeds decreased, especially for the earlier sowing dates, but the frequency of non-emergence due to water stress increased after 2060 for all sowing dates, including the mid-February sowing. Bolting remains a risk for sowings before mid-March although this risk will be markedly decreased after 2060. The changes in seedbed conditions will be significant after 2060 in terms of temperatures. However, the possibility of field access will be a main limiting factor for earlier sowings, as no significant changes in cumulative rainfall, compared with the past, will occur under future climate change. When field access is not a constraint, an anticipation of the sowing date, compared to the currently practiced sowing (i.e. mid-March), will lead to decreased risks for the sugar beet crop establishment and bolting. The use of future climate scenarios coupled with a crop model allows a precise insight into the future sowing conditions, and provide helpful information to better project future farming systems.

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Adapting wheat sowing dates to projected climate change in the Australian subtropics: analysis of crop water use and yield

Crop and Pasture Science ◽

10.1071/cp11324 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 63 (10) ◽

pp. 974 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

Davide Cammarano ◽

Bruno Basso ◽

Lydia Stefanova ◽

Peter Grace

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Use ◽

Air Temperature ◽

Sowing Date ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Sowing Dates ◽

Daily Weather Data ◽

The Impact

Projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) and air temperature associated with future climate change are expected to affect crop development, crop yield, and, consequently, global food supplies. They are also likely to change agricultural production practices, especially those related to agricultural water management and sowing date. The magnitude of these changes and their implications to local production systems are mostly unknown. The objectives of this study were to: (i) simulate the effect of projected climate change on spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv. Lang) yield and water use for the subtropical environment of the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia; and (ii) investigate the impact of changing sowing date, as an adaptation strategy to future climate change scenarios, on wheat yield and water use. The multi-model climate projections from the IPCC Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) for the period 2030–2070 were used in this study. Climate scenarios included combinations of four changes in air temperature (0°C, 1°C, 2°C, and 3°C), three [CO2] levels (380 ppm, 500 ppm, and 600 ppm), and three changes in rainfall (–30%, 0%, and +20%), which were superimposed on observed station data. Crop management scenarios included a combination of six sowing dates (1 May, 10 May, 20 May, 1 June, 10 June, and 20 June) and three irrigation regimes (no irrigation (NI), deficit irrigation (DI), and full irrigation (FI)). Simulations were performed with the model DSSAT 4.5, using 50 years of daily weather data. We found that: (1) grain yield and water-use efficiency (yield/evapotranspiration) increased linearly with [CO2]; (2) increases in [CO2] had minimal impact on evapotranspiration; (3) yield increased with increasing temperature for the irrigated scenarios (DI and FI), but decreased for the NI scenario; (4) yield increased with earlier sowing dates; and (5) changes in rainfall had a small impact on yield for DI and FI, but a high impact for the NI scenario.

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