Strong direct and indirect influences of climate change on water yield confirmed by the Budyko framework

Modeling is a useful way to understand human and climate change impacts on the water resources of agricultural watersheds. Calibration and validation methodologies are crucial in forecasting assessments. This study explores the best calibration methodology depending on the level of hydrological alteration due to human-derived stressors. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to evaluate hydrology in South-West Europe in a context of intensive agriculture and water scarcity. The Index of Hydrological Alteration (IHA) is calculated using discharge observation data. A comparison of two SWAT calibration methodologies are done; a conventional calibration (CC) based on recorded in-stream water quality and quantity and an additional calibration (AC) adding crop managements practices. Even if the water quality and quantity trends are similar between CC and AC, water balance, irrigation and crop yields are different. In the context of rainfall decrease, water yield decreases in both CC and AC, while crop productions present opposite trends (+33% in CC and −31% in AC). Hydrological performance between CC and AC is correlated to IHA: When the level of IHA is under 80%, AC methodology is necessary. The combination of both calibrations appears essential to better constrain the model and to forecast the impact of climate change or anthropogenic influences on water resources.

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Simulating the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes of a Sparsely Gauged Mountainous Basin, Northern Pakistan

Water ◽

10.3390/w11102141 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (10) ◽

pp. 2141 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Saddique ◽

Usman ◽

Bernhofer

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

High Elevation ◽

Climate Simulation ◽

Water Yield ◽

Research Station ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Global Circulation Models ◽

The Impact

Projected climate changes for the 21st century may cause great uncertainties on the hydrology of a river basin. This study explored the impacts of climate change on the water balance and hydrological regime of the Jhelum River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Two downscaling methods (SDSM, Statistical Downscaling Model and LARS-WG, Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), three Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for three future periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2090s) were used to assess the climate change impacts on flow regimes. The results exhibited that both downscaling methods suggested an increase in annual streamflow over the river basin. There is generally an increasing trend of winter and autumn discharge, whereas it is complicated for summer and spring to conclude if the trend is increasing or decreasing depending on the downscaling methods. Therefore, the uncertainty associated with the downscaling of climate simulation needs to consider, for the best estimate, the impact of climate change, with its uncertainty, on a particular basin. The study also resulted that water yield and evapotranspiration in the eastern part of the basin (sub-basins at high elevation) would be most affected by climate change. The outcomes of this study would be useful for providing guidance in water management and planning for the river basin under climate change.

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Hydrological Responses to Climate and Land Use Changes in a Watershed of the Loess Plateau, China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su11051443 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 1443 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Rui Yan ◽

Yanpeng Cai ◽

Chunhui Li ◽

Xuan Wang ◽

Qiang Liu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Balance ◽

Loess Plateau ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Water Yield ◽

The Loess Plateau ◽

Runoff Water ◽

Lulc Change

This study researched the individual and combined impacts of future LULC and climate changes on water balance in the upper reaches of the Beiluo River basin on the Loess Plateau of China, using the scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The climate data indicated that both precipitation and temperature increased at seasonal and annual scales from 2020 to 2050 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The future land use changes were predicted through the CA-Markov model. The land use predictions of 2025, 2035, and 2045 indicated rising forest areas with decreased agricultural land and grassland. In this study, three scenarios including only LULC change, only climate change, and combined climate and LULC change were established. The SWAT model was calibrated, validated, and used to simulate the water balance under the three scenarios. The results showed that increased rainfall and temperature may lead to increased runoff, water yield, and ET in spring, summer, and autumn and to decreased runoff, water yield, and ET in winter from 2020 to 2050. However, LULC change, compared with climate change, may have a smaller impact on the water balance. On an annual scale, runoff and water yield may gradually decrease, but ET may increase. The combined effects of both LULC and climate changes on water balance in the future were similar to the variation trend of climate changes alone at both annual and seasonal scales. The results obtained in this study provide further insight into the availability of future streamflow and can aid in water resource management planning in the study area.

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Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Water ◽

10.3390/w12061801 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (6) ◽

pp. 1801 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Wakjira Takala Dibaba ◽

Tamene Adugna Demissie ◽

Konrad Miegel

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Resources ◽

Land Cover ◽

Surface Runoff ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Water Yield ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Ensemble Mean ◽

The Future

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change affect the availability of water resources by altering the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. The evaluation helps to identify the level of water resources exposure to the changes that could help to plan for potential adaptive capacity. In this research, Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov in IDRISI software was used to predict the future LULC scenarios and the ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used for the future climate scenarios. Distribution mapping was used to bias correct the RCMs outputs, with respect to the observed precipitation and temperature. Then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the watershed hydrological responses of the catchment under separate, and combined, LULC and climate change. The result shows the ensemble mean of the four RCMs reported precipitation decline and increase in future temperature under both representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios showing that RCP8.5 projection is warmer than RCP4.5. The changes in LULC brings an increase in surface runoff and water yield and a decline in groundwater, while the projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater and water yield. The combined study of LULC and climate change shows that the effect of the combined scenario is similar to that of climate change only scenario. The overall decline of annual flow is due to the decline in the seasonal flows under combined scenarios. This could bring the reduced availability of water for crop production, which will be a chronic issue of subsistence agriculture. The possibility of surface water and groundwater reduction could also affect the availability of water resources in the catchment and further aggravate water stress in the downstream. The highly rising demands of water, owing to socio-economic progress, population growth and high demand for irrigation water downstream, in addition to the variability temperature and evaporation demands, amplify prolonged water scarcity. Consequently, strong land-use planning and climate-resilient water management policies will be indispensable to manage the risks.

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Impact of Stomtal Resistance on ET and Water Yield in Climate Change Modeling

Bridging the Gap ◽

10.1061/40569(2001)337 ◽

2001 ◽

Author(s):

Ping Chen ◽

Rollin H. Hotchkiss ◽

Claudio O. Stockle

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Yield

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CLIMATE- AND LAND USE-INDUCED RISKS TO WATERSHED SERVICES IN THE NYANDO RIVER BASIN, KENYA

Experimental Agriculture ◽

10.1017/s001447971100007x ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 47 (2) ◽

pp. 339-356 ◽

Cited By ~ 14

Author(s):

MWANGI GATHENYA ◽

HOSEA MWANGI ◽

RICHARD COE ◽

JOSEPH SANG

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Sediment Yield ◽

Land Surface ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Surface Condition ◽

Water Yield ◽

Minor Effect ◽

Watershed Services

SUMMARYClimate change and land use change are two forces influencing the hydrology of watersheds and their ability to provide ecosystem services, such as clean and well-regulated streamflow and control of soil erosion and sediment yield. The Soil Water Assessment Tool, SWAT, a distributed, watershed-scale hydrological model was used with 18 scenarios of rainfall, temperature and infiltration capacity of land surface to investigate the spatial distribution of watershed services over the 3587 km2 Nyando basin in Western Kenya and how it is affected by these two forces. The total annual water yield varied over the 50 sub-basins from 35 to 600 mm while the annual sediment yield ranged from 0 to 104 tons ha−1. Temperature change had a relatively minor effect on streamflow and sediment yield compared to change in rainfall and land surface condition. Improvements in land surface condition that result in higher infiltration are an effective adaptation strategy to moderate the effects of climate change on supply of watershed services. Spatial heterogeneity in response to climate and land use change is large, and hence it is necessary to understand it if interventions to modify hydrology or adapt to climate change are to be effective.

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Declining water yield from forested mountain watersheds in response to climate change and forest mesophication

Global Change Biology ◽

10.1111/gcb.13309 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 22 (9) ◽

pp. 2997-3012 ◽

Cited By ~ 51

Author(s):

Peter V. Caldwell ◽

Chelcy F. Miniat ◽

Katherine J. Elliott ◽

Wayne T. Swank ◽

Steven T. Brantley ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Yield ◽

Mountain Watersheds

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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER YIELD IN THE UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN1

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association ◽

10.1111/j.1752-1688.2000.tb04271.x ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 36 (2) ◽

pp. 321-336 ◽

Cited By ~ 53

Author(s):

Michael D. Stonefelt ◽

Thomas A. Fontaine ◽

Rollin H. Hotchkiss

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Yield ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MISSOURI RWER BASIN WATER YIELD

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association ◽

10.1111/j.1752-1688.2001.tb03626.x ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 37 (5) ◽

pp. 1119-1129 ◽

Cited By ~ 70

Author(s):

Mark C. Stone ◽

Rollin H. Hotchkiss ◽

Carter M. Hubbard ◽

Thomas A. Fontaine ◽

Linda O. Mearns ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Yield ◽

Basin Water ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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STUDI HIDROLOGI BERDASARKAN CLIMATE CHANGES MENGGUNAKAN MODEL SWAT DI DAERAH TANGKAPAN AIR WADUK JATILUHUR

Jurnal Sains & Teknologi Modifikasi Cuaca ◽

10.29122/jstmc.v16i2.1047 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 16 (2) ◽

pp. 55

Author(s):

Budi Darmawan Supatmanto ◽

Sri Malahayati Yusuf

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Catchment Area ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Water Yield ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Hydrological Process ◽

Coverage Area ◽

Catchment Areas ◽

The Impact ◽

Total Coverage

Daerah Tangkapan waduk Jatiluhur berada diantara 107011'36” - 107032'36" BT and 6029'50" - 6040'45" LS di Jawa Barat, Indonesia. Area dengan luas 380 km2 merupakan 8% dari seluruh total area Hulu Sungai Citarum seluas 4500 km2. Fungsi dari daerah ini untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air untuk pertanian di Karawang dan Bekasi dan memenuhi kebutuhan air di Jakarta. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk meneliti dampak dari perubahan ik (Climate Changes) terhadap hasil hidrologi di daerah tangkapan. Perubahan iklim ditentukan oleh beberapa scenario perubahan iklim yang disiapkan sebagai input dalam SWAT hidrologi model. Simulasi dilakukan sesudah model dikalibrasi untuk mendapatkan parameter model yang sesuai dengan model hidrologi. Setelah itu model divalidasi untuk mengetahui bahwa model menggambarkan keadaan lapangan. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai-nilai limpasan dan hasil air yang bervariasi berdasarkan perubahan iklim. Oleh karena itu, perlu adanya untuk mempertimbangkan faktor-faktor perubahan iklim untuk mempelajari proses hidrologi di Daerah Tangkapan Air.Kata Kunci: SWAT, hidrologi, skenario perubahan iklim dan area tangkapan=Jatiluhur Reservoir Catchment Area is located between 107011'36” - 107032'36" BT and 6029'50" - 6040'45" LS in West Java, Indonesia. The catchment area embraces 380 km2, which is 8% of the total coverage area in the upstream of Citarum River with the total area of 4500 km2. The functions of this catchment are essential for meeting the needs of water for agriculture in Karawang and Bekasi area, and drinking water needs for Jakarta area. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology yield in the catchment. Changes in climate are discovered by several different climate changes scenarios, prepared as input for hydrological model SWAT. Simulation scenarios conducted after the model is calibrated in order to obtain model parameters that are sensitive to the hydrological response. Afterwards models are validated to find out that the model has described the state of the field. The result showed that the values of runoff and water yield are varies based on climate change. Therefore, there is a need to consider the factors of climate change in order to study hydrological process of a watershed.Keywords: SWAT, hydrology, climate changes scenarios and catchment areas.

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