Projection of vegetation distribution to 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming on the Tibetan Plateau

2021 ◽  
pp. 103525
Author(s):  
Dongsheng Zhao ◽  
Yu Zhu ◽  
Shaohong Wu ◽  
Du Zheng
Author(s):  
Cheryl Colopy

From a remote outpost of global warming, a summons crackles over a two-way radio several times a week: . . . Kathmandu, Tsho Rolpa! Babar Mahal, Tsho Rolpa! Kathmandu, Tsho Rolpa! Babar Mahal, Tsho Rolpa! . . . In a little brick building on the lip of a frigid gray lake fifteen thousand feet above sea level, Ram Bahadur Khadka tries to rouse someone at Nepal’s Department of Hydrology and Meteorology in the Babar Mahal district of Kathmandu far below. When he finally succeeds and a voice crackles back to him, he reads off a series of measurements: lake levels, amounts of precipitation. A father and a farmer, Ram Bahadur is up here at this frigid outpost because the world is getting warmer. He and two colleagues rotate duty; usually two of them live here at any given time, in unkempt bachelor quarters near the roof of the world. Mount Everest is three valleys to the east, only about twenty miles as the crow flies. The Tibetan plateau is just over the mountains to the north. The men stay for four months at a stretch before walking down several days to reach a road and board a bus to go home and visit their families. For the past six years each has received five thousand rupees per month from the government—about $70—for his labors. The cold, murky lake some fifty yards away from the post used to be solid ice. Called Tsho Rolpa, it’s at the bottom of the Trakarding Glacier on the border between Tibet and Nepal. The Trakarding has been receding since at least 1960, leaving the lake at its foot. It’s retreating about 200 feet each year. Tsho Rolpa was once just a pond atop the glacier. Now it’s half a kilometer wide and three and a half kilometers long; upward of a hundred million cubic meters of icy water are trapped behind a heap of rock the glacier deposited as it flowed down and then retreated. The Netherlands helped Nepal carve out a trench through that heap of rock to allow some of the lake’s water to drain into the Rolwaling River.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuonan Cao ◽  
Peter Kühn ◽  
Thomas Scholten

<p>The Tibetan Plateau is the third-largest glaciated area of the world and is one of the most sensitive regions due to climate warming, such as fast-melting permafrost, dust blow and overgrazing in recent decades. In the past 50 years, the warming rate on the Tibetan Plateau is higher than the global average warming rate with 0.40 ± 0.05 °C per decade. The climate warming is most distinct in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, implying increasing air and surface temperatures as well as duration and depth of thawing. The main ecological consequences are a disturbed vegetation cover of the surface and a depletion of nutrient-rich topsoils (Baumann et al., 2009, 2014) coupled with an increase of greenhouse gas emissions, mainly CO<sub>2</sub> (Bosch et al., 2017). Due to the extreme environmental conditions resulting from the intense and rapid tectonic uplift, highly adaptive and sensitive ecosystem have developed, and the Plateau is considered to be a key area for the environmental evolution of Earth on regional and global scales, which is particularly sensitive to global warming (Jin et al., 2007; Qiu, 2008). Climate warming and land-use change can reduce soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks as well as soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) contents and soil quality. Many species showed their distributions by climate-driven shifts towards higher elevation. In Tibetan Plateau, however, the elevational variations of the alpine grassland are rare (Huang et al., 2018) and it is largely unknown how the grass line will respond to global warming and whether soils play a major role. With this research, the hypothesis is tested that soil quality, given by SOC, N and P stocks and content, is a driving factor for the position and structure of the grass line and that soil quality is one of the major controls of biodiversity and biomass production in high-mountain grassland ecosystems.</p><p>A Fourier transformation near and mid-infrared spectroscopy (FT-NMIRS) should be used to measure soil P fractions rapid and for large numbers of soil samples, and analyze environmental factors, including temperature, precipitation, soil development, soil fertility, and the ability of plants to adapt to the environmental impact of climate using FT-NMIRS.</p><p>We explored first near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) in soils from grassland on the Tibetan Plateau, northwestern China and extracted P fractions of 196 samples from Haibei Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Research Station, Chinese Academy of Sciences, at four depths increments (0-10 cm 10-20 cm 20-40 cm and 40-70 cm) with different pre-nutrient additions of nitrogen (N) an P. The fractionation data were correlated with the corresponding NIRS soil spectra and showed significant differences for depth increments and fertilizer amendments. The R<sup>2</sup> of NIRS calibrations to predict P in traditional Hedley fractions ranged between 0.12 and 0.90. The model prediction quality was higher for organic than for inorganic P fractions and changed with depth and fertilizer amendment. The results indicate that using NIRS to predict the P fractions can be a promising approach compared with traditional Hedley fractionation for soils in alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau.</p>


Author(s):  
Yanling Song ◽  
Chunyi Wang ◽  
Hans W. Linderholm ◽  
Jinfeng Tian ◽  
Ying Shi ◽  
...  

The Tibetan plateau is one of the most sensitive areas in China and has been significantly affected by global warming. From 1961 to 2017, the annual air temperature increased by 0.32 °C/decade over the Tibetan Plateau, which is the highest in the whole of China. Furthermore, this is a trend that is projected to continue by 0.30 °C/decade from 2018 to 2050 due to global warming using the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). The increased temperature trend in recent decades has been highest in winter, which has been positive for the safe dormancy of winter wheat. In order to investigate agricultural adaptation to climate change in the Tibetan plateau, we used the World Food Studies (WOFOST) cropping systems model and weather data from the regional climate model RegCM4, to simulate winter wheat production in Guide county between 2018 and 2050. The simulated winter wheat potential yields amounted to 6698.3 kg/ha from 2018 to 2050, which showed the wheat yields would increase by 81%, if winter wheat was planted instead of spring wheat in the Tibetan Plateau with the correct amount of irrigation water. These results indicate that there are not only risks to crop yields from climate change, but also potential benefits. Global warming introduced the possibility to plant winter wheat instead of spring wheat over the Tibetan Plateau. These findings are very important for farmers and government agencies dealing with agricultural adaptation in a warmer climate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (12) ◽  
pp. 5141-5154
Author(s):  
Qinglong You ◽  
Fangying Wu ◽  
Hongguo Wang ◽  
Zhihong Jiang ◽  
Nick Pepin ◽  
...  

AbstractSnow water equivalent (SWE) is a critical parameter for characterizing snowpack, which has a direct influence on the hydrological cycle, especially over high terrain. In this study, SWE from 18 coupled model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is validated against the Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE) SWE. The model simulations under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 are employed to investigate projected changes in spring/winter SWE over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) under global warming of 1.5° and 2°C. Most CMIP5 models overestimate the CanSISE SWE. A decrease in mean spring/winter SWE for both RCPs over most regions of the TP is predicted in the future, with most significant reductions over the western TP, consistent with pronounced warming in that region. This is supported by strong positive correlations between SWE and mean temperature in the future in both seasons. Compared with the preindustrial period, spring/winter SWE over the TP under global warming of 1.5° and 2°C will reduce significantly, at faster rates than over China as a whole and the Northern Hemisphere. SWE changes over the TP do not show a simple elevation dependency under global warming of 1.5° and 2°C, with maximum changes in the elevation band of 4000–4500 m. Moreover, there are also strong positive correlations between projected SWE and historical mean SWE, indicating that the initial conditions of SWE are an important parameter of future SWE under specific global warming scenarios.


2012 ◽  
Vol 58 (211) ◽  
pp. 879-888 ◽  
Author(s):  
Baotian Pan ◽  
Bo Cao ◽  
Jie Wang ◽  
Guoliang Zhang ◽  
Chen Zhang ◽  
...  

AbstractGlobal warming is causing widespread glacier retreat, with small glaciers disappearing. We investigate changes in glaciers over the western Lenglongling mountains, located in the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Glacier extent over the western Lenglongling mountains is estimated by comparing digitized glacier outlines obtained from aerial photographs and satellite imagery. These results suggest that all 179 glaciers in the western Lenglongling mountains shrunk between 1972 and 2007. The total area loss was ~24.4 km2, accounting for ~28.3% (0.81% a-1) of the glacierized area in 1972. The average area retreat rates differ over different time intervals: they are approximately 0.68, 0.90, 0.77 and 0.56 km2 a-1 over the periods 1972-95,1995-99,1999-2002 and 2002-07, respectively. Based on analysis of meteorological data, glacier shrinkage in the study area can probably be attributed to the increase in air temperature. Furthermore, the smaller glaciers display a higher shrinkage rate than larger glaciers, and glaciers on southwest-facing slopes appear to retreat faster than those on northeast- facing slopes.


2012 ◽  
Vol 195 (2) ◽  
pp. 427-436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinzhan Liu ◽  
Junpeng Mu ◽  
Karl J. Niklas ◽  
Guoyong Li ◽  
Shucun Sun

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shixue Li ◽  
Tomonori Sato ◽  
Tetsu Nakamura

<p>This study investigates the controlling factors of the interannual variability of Tibetan Plateau snow cover (TPSC) in winter. Since snow observation in Tibetan Plateau is limited in space and time, high-resolution multi-satellite data for TPSC were analyzed during 1982-2016. In addition, a large ensemble AGCM experiment from d4PDF (hereafter, HIST), driven by observed SST and anthropogenic forcings were analyzed during 1951-2010 to compare the contributions arising from internal variability and external forcings including the change in greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentration on TPSC variation. In this study TPSC fraction (hereafter, TPSCF) is defined as the percentage of the snow-covered area over the Tibetan Plateau. For both observation and HIST, high and low TPSCF years determined by the standardized January-March TPSCF were analyzed. The range of interannual TPSCF variation (i.e., TPSCF difference between high and low TPSCF years) is about 11% in both observation and the model, suggesting the AGCM well reproduced the TPSCF variability in the interannual timescale. </p><p>We found that high TPSCF is linked to a positive-AO-like pattern. The interannual variation of the observed AO index and TPSCF are significantly correlated. In d4PDF high TPSCF more likely appears with a higher (positive) AO index and vice versa. In high TPSCF years, the subtropical jet is strengthened, which significantly enhances zonal water vapor flux reaching the plateau supporting more precipitation. Another interesting result is a disagreement for ENSO’s contribution to TPSC appears between observation and HIST. However, several members in HIST show a feature close to the observation, in which TPSCF anomalies are not sensitive to the El Niño/La Niña events. Thus, this weak linkage between ENSO and TPSCF is more likely due to the limited cases of observations rather than the model bias. Finally, by comparing HIST and non-warming experiments (NAT), we found historical global warming has decreased the snow-to-rain ratio over TP. Nonetheless, increased precipitation compensates for it. As a result, the impact of historical global warming on TPSCF could be considered negligibly weak.</p>


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