Evaluation of high-resolution WRF model forecasts and their use for cloud seeding decisions

2022 ◽  
pp. 105825
Author(s):  
K. Gayatri ◽  
J. Sandeep ◽  
P. Murugavel ◽  
S. Chowdhuri ◽  
M. Konwar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Cloud Seeding

Examining Terrain Effects on an Upstate New York Tornado Event Utilizing a High-Resolution Model Simulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke J. LeBel ◽  
Brian H. Tang ◽  
Ross A. Lazear
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Streamwise Vorticity ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Severe Convection ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe complex terrain at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys of New York has an impact on the development and evolution of severe convection in the region. Specifically, previous research has concluded that terrain-channeled flow in the Mohawk and Hudson valleys likely contributes to increased low-level wind shear and instability in the valleys during severe weather events such as the historic 31 May 1998 event that produced a strong (F3) tornado in Mechanicville, New York.The goal of this study is to further examine the impact of terrain channeling on severe convection by analyzing a high-resolution WRF model simulation of the 31 May 1998 event. Results from the simulation suggest that terrain-channeled flow resulted in the localized formation of an enhanced low-level moisture gradient, resembling a dryline, at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys. East of this boundary, the environment was characterized by stronger low-level wind shear and greater low-level moisture and instability, increasing tornadogenesis potential. A simulated supercell intensified after crossing the boundary, as the larger instability and streamwise vorticity of the low-level inflow was ingested into the supercell updraft. These results suggest that terrain can have a key role in producing mesoscale inhomogeneities that impact the evolution of severe convection. Recognition of these terrain-induced boundaries may help in anticipating where the risk of severe weather may be locally enhanced.

Statistical Postprocessing of High-Resolution Regional Climate Model Output

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (5) ◽  
pp. 1533-1553 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo A. Mendoza ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
Martyn P. Clark ◽  
Kyoko Ikeda ◽  
Roy M. Rasmussen
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Value Theory ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Regional Climate Model Output ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Statistical postprocessing techniques have become essential tools for downscaling large-scale information to the point scale, and also for providing a better probabilistic characterization of hydrometeorological variables in simulation and forecasting applications at both short and long time scales. In this paper, the authors assess the utility of statistical postprocessing methods for generating probabilistic estimates of daily precipitation totals, using deterministic high-resolution outputs obtained with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. After a preliminary assessment of WRF simulations over a historical period, the performance of three postprocessing techniques is compared: multinomial logistic regression (MnLR), quantile regression (QR), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA)—all of which use WRF outputs as potential predictors. Results demonstrate that the WRF Model has skill in reproducing observed precipitation events, especially during fall/winter. Furthermore, it is shown that the spatial distribution of skill obtained from statistical postprocessing is closely linked with the quality of WRF precipitation outputs. A detailed comparison of statistical precipitation postprocessing approaches reveals that, although the poorest performance was obtained using MnLR, there is not an overall best technique. While QR should be preferred if skill (i.e., small probability forecast errors) and reliability (i.e., match between forecast probabilities and observed frequencies) are target properties, BMA is recommended in cases when discrimination (i.e., prediction of occurrence versus nonoccurrence) and statistical consistency (i.e., equiprobability of the observations within their ensemble distributions) are desired. Based on the results obtained here, the authors believe that future research should explore frameworks reconciling hierarchical Bayesian models with the use of the extreme value theory for high precipitation events.

scholarly journals Comparing high resolution WRF-VPRM simulations and two global CO<sub>2</sub> transport models with coastal tower measurements of CO<sub>2</sub>

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 807-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Ahmadov ◽  
C. Gerbig ◽  
R. Kretschmer ◽  
S. Körner ◽  
C. Rödenbeck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Concentration Data ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Global Models ◽  
Diurnal Variability ◽  
Resolution Model

Abstract. In order to better understand the effects that mesoscale transport has on atmospheric CO2 distributions, we have used the atmospheric WRF model coupled to the diagnostic biospheric model VPRM, which provides high resolution biospheric CO2 fluxes based on MODIS satellite indices. We have run WRF-VPRM for the period from 16 May to 15 June in 2005 covering the intensive period of the CERES experiment, using the CO2 fields from the global model LMDZ for initialization and lateral boundary conditions. The comparison of modeled CO2 concentration time series against observations at the Biscarosse tower and against output from two global models – LMDZ and TM3 – clearly reveals that WRF-VPRM can capture the measured CO2 signal much better than the global models with lower resolution. Also the diurnal variability of the atmospheric CO2 field caused by recirculation of nighttime respired CO2 is simulated by WRF-VRPM reasonably well. Analysis of the nighttime data indicates that with high resolution modeling tools such as WRF-VPRM a large fraction of the time periods that are impossible to utilize in global models, can be used quantitatively and may help to constrain respiratory fluxes. The paper concludes that we need to utilize a high-resolution model such as WRF-VPRM to use continental observations of CO2 concentration data with more spatial and temporal coverage and to link them to the global inversion models.

scholarly journals High-Resolution Solar Climate Atlas for Greece under Climate Change Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodoros Katopodis ◽  
Iason Markantonis ◽  
Nadia Politi ◽  
Diamando Vlachogiannis ◽  
Athanasios Sfetsos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Clear Sky ◽  
The Future ◽  
Weather Research

In the context of climate change and growing energy demand, solar technologies are considered promising solutions to mitigate Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and support sustainable adaptation. In Greece, solar power is the second major renewable energy, constituting an increasingly important component of the future low-carbon energy portfolio. In this work, we propose the use of a high-resolution regional climate model (Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF) to generate a solar climate atlas for the near-term climatological future under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The model is set up with a 5 × 5 km2 spatial resolution, forced by the ERA-INTERIM for the historic (1980–2004) period and by the EC-EARTH General Circulation Models (GCM) for the future (2020–2044). Results reaffirm the high quality of solar energy potential in Greece and highlight the ability of the WRF model to produce a highly reliable future climate solar atlas. Projected changes between the annual historic and future RCPs scenarios indicate changes of the annual Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) in the range of ±5.0%. Seasonal analysis of the GHI values indicates percentage changes in the range of ±12% for both scenarios, with winter exhibiting the highest seasonal increases in the order of 10%, and autumn the largest decreases. Clear-sky fraction fclear projects increases in the range of ±4.0% in eastern and north continental Greece in the future, while most of the Greek marine areas might expect above 220 clear-sky days per year.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Evaluation of WRF Downscaling Capabilities over Western Australia in Simulating Rainfall and Temperature Extremes

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (2) ◽  
pp. 370-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Andrys ◽  
Thomas J. Lyons ◽  
Jatin Kala
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Climate Simulations

AbstractThe authors evaluate a 30-yr (1981–2010) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model regional climate simulation over the southwest of Western Australia (SWWA), a region with a Mediterranean climate, using ERA-Interim boundary conditions. The analysis assesses the spatial and temporal characteristics of climate extremes, using a selection of climate indices, with an emphasis on metrics that are relevant for forestry and agricultural applications. Two nested domains at 10- and 5-km resolution are examined, with the higher-resolution simulation resolving convection explicitly. Simulation results are compared with a high-resolution, gridded observational dataset that provides daily rainfall, minimum temperatures, and maximum temperatures. Results show that, at both resolutions, the model is able to simulate the daily, seasonal, and annual variation of temperature and precipitation well, including extreme events. The higher-resolution domain displayed significant performance gains in simulating dry-season convective precipitation, rainfall around complex terrain, and the spatial distribution of frost conditions. The high-resolution domain was, however, influenced by grid-edge effects in the southwestern margin, which reduced the ability of the domain to represent frontal rainfall along the coastal region. On the basis of these results, the authors feel confident in using the WRF Model for regional climate simulations for the SWWA, including studies that focus on the spatial and temporal representation of climate extremes. This study provides a baseline climatological description at a high resolution that can be used for impact studies and will also provide a benchmark for climate simulations driven by general circulation models.

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