Climate Variability, Climate Change and Fisheries

La variabilidad climática es la norma que ha modulado la vida en el planeta. Este trabajo demuestra que las pesquerías y acuicultura costera ecuatorianas no son la excepción, puesto que tales actividades están fuertemente influenciadas por la variabilidad ENSO (El Niño-Oscilación del Sur) y PDO (Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico), planteándose que la señal del cambio climático debe contribuir a esta influencia. Se destaca también que, en el análisis de los efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre los recursos pesqueros, el esfuerzo extractivo también debe ser considerado. Por su parte, la acción actual de la PDO está afectando la señal del cambio climático, encontrándose actualmente en fases opuestas. Se espera que estas señales entren en fase a finales de esta década, y principalmente durante la década de los 20 y consecuentemente se evidencien con mayor fuerza los efectos del Cambio Climático. Palabras Clave: Variabilidad Climática, Cambio Climático, ENSO, PDO, Pesquerías, Ecuador. ABSTRACT Climate variability is the standard that has modulated life in the planet. This work shows that the Ecuadorian fisheries and aquaculture are not the exception, since such activities are strongly influenced by ENSO variability (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), considering that the signal of climate change should contribute to this influence. It also emphasizes that in the analysis of the effects of climate variability on the fishing resources, the extractive effort must also be considered. For its part, the current action of the PDO is affecting the signal of climate change, now found on opposite phases. It is hoped that these signals come into phase at the end of this decade, and especially during the decade of the 20’s and more strongly evidencing the effects of climate change. Keywords: Climate variability, climate change, ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); fisheries, Ecuador. Recibido: mayo, 2012Aprobado: agosto, 2012

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Less Rain and More Heat”: Smallholders’ Perception and Climate Change Adaptation Strategies in Tropical Environments

Sociedad y Ambiente ◽

10.31840/sya.v0i21.2040 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 77-104 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Karla Diana Infante Ramírez ◽

Ana Minerva Arce Ibarra

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Tropical Forest ◽

Climate Change Adaptation ◽

Coastal Zone ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Seasonal Migration ◽

Forest Zone ◽

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

The main objective of this study was to analyze local perceptions of climate variability and the different adaptation strategies of four communities in the southern Yucatán Peninsula, using the Social-Ecological System (SES) approach. Four SESs were considered: two in the coastal zone and two in the tropical forest zone. Data were collected using different qualitative methodological tools (interviews, participant observation, and focal groups) and the information collected from each site was triangulated. In all four sites, changes in climate variability were perceived as “less rain and more heat”. In the tropical forest (or Maya) zone, an ancestral indigenous weather forecasting system, known as “Xook k’íin” (or “las cabañuelas”), was recorded and the main activity affected by climate variability was found to be slash-and burn farming or the milpa. In the coastal zone, the main activities affected are fishing and tourism. In all the cases analyzed, local climate change adaptation strategies include undertaking alternative work, and changing the calendar of daily, seasonal and annual labor and seasonal migration. The population of all four SESs displayed concern and uncertainty as regards dealing with these changes and possible changes in the future.

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North Atlantic Oscillation; a Climatic Indicator to Predict Hydropower Availability in Scandinavia

Hydrology Research ◽

10.2166/nh.2002.0016 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 33 (5) ◽

pp. 415-424 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Cintia B. Uvo ◽

Ronny Berndtsson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Spatial Distribution ◽

Climate Variability ◽

North Atlantic Oscillation ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Winter Precipitation ◽

Model Driven ◽

The World ◽

Hydropower Production ◽

Precipitation And Temperature

Climate variability and climate change are of great concern to economists and energy producers as well as environmentalists as both affect the precipitation and temperature in many regions of the world. Among those affected by climate variability is the Scandinavian Peninsula. Particularly, its winter precipitation and temperature are affected by the variations of the so-called North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The objective of this paper is to analyze the spatial distribution of the influence of NAO over Scandinavia. This analysis is a first step to establishing a predictive model, driven by a climatic indicator such as NAO, for the available water resources of different regions in Scandinavia. Such a tool would be valuable for predicting potential of hydropower production one or more seasons in advance.

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Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 ‘slowdown’ in global warming

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-21815-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Xavier Rodó ◽

Pamela P. Martinez ◽

Amir Siraj ◽

Mercedes Pascual

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Marked Decrease ◽

Transmission Model ◽

Pronounced Increase ◽

Ethiopian Highland ◽

Epidemic Size ◽

Seasonal Epidemic ◽

Malaria Trends

AbstractA counterargument to the importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been that regions where an effect of warmer temperatures is expected, have experienced a marked decrease in seasonal epidemic size since the turn of the new century. This decline has been observed in the densely populated highlands of East Africa at the center of the earlier debate on causes of the pronounced increase in epidemic size from the 1970s to the 1990s. The turnaround of the incidence trend around 2000 is documented here with an extensive temporal record for malaria cases for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in an Ethiopian highland. With statistical analyses and a process-based transmission model, we show that this decline was driven by the transient slowdown in global warming and associated changes in climate variability, especially ENSO. Decadal changes in temperature and concurrent climate variability facilitated rather than opposed the effect of interventions.

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Calcium and Potassium Nutrition Increases the Water Use Efficiency in Coffee: A Promising Strategy to Adapt to Climate Change

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology8020075 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 75

Author(s):

Victor Hugo Ramírez-Builes ◽

Jürgen Küsters

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Water Use Efficiency ◽

Water Use ◽

Agricultural Sector ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Caribbean Region ◽

Coffee Production ◽

Use Efficiency

Coffee (Coffea spp.) represents one of the most important sources of income and goods for the agricultural sector in Central America, Colombia, and the Caribbean region. The sustainability of coffee production at the global and regional scale is under threat by climate change, with a major risk of losing near to 50% of today’s suitable area for coffee by 2050. Rain-fed coffee production dominates in the region, and under increasing climate variability and climate change impacts, these production areas are under threat due to air temperature increase and changes in rainfall patterns and volumes. Identification, evaluation, and implementation of adaptation strategies for growers to cope with climate variability and change impacts are relevant and high priority. Incremental adaptation strategies, including proper soil and water management, contribute to improved water use efficiency (WUE) and should be the first line of action to adapt the coffee crop to the changing growing conditions. This research’s objective was to evaluate at field level over five years the influence of fertilization with calcium (Ca+2) and potassium (K+) on WUE in two coffee arabica varieties: cv. Castillo and cv. Caturra. Castillo has resistance against coffee leaf rust (CLR) (Hemileia vastatrix Verkeley and Brome), while Caturra is not CLR-resistant. WUE was influenced by yield changes during the years by climate variability due to El Niño–ENSO conditions and CLR incidence. Application of Ca+2 and K+ improved the WUE under such variable conditions. The highest WUE values were obtained with an application of 100 kg CaO ha−1 year−1 and between 180 to 230 kg K2O ha−1 year−1. The results indicate that adequate nutrition with Ca+2 and K+ can improve WUE in the long-term, even underwater deficit conditions and after the substantial incidence. Hence, an optimum application of Ca+2 and K+ in rain-fed coffee plantations can be regarded as an effective strategy to adapt to climate variability and climate change.

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Climate Variability Since 1970 and Farmers’ Observations in Northern Ghana

Sustainable Agriculture Research ◽

10.5539/sar.v5n2p41 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 5 (2) ◽

pp. 41 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Emmanuel Nyadzi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Water Conservation ◽

Crop Production ◽

Meteorological Data ◽

Northern Region ◽

Northern Ghana ◽

Climate Variability And Change ◽

Urban Centers ◽

Access To Credit

The study examines how farmers’ observations of climate variability and change correspond with 42 years (1970-2011) meteorological data of temperature and rainfall. It shows how farmers in the Northern Region of Ghana adjust to the changing climate and explore the various obstacles that hinder the implementation of their adaptation strategies. With the help of an extension officer, 200 farmers from 20 communities were randomly selected based on their farming records. Temperatures over the last four decades (1970-2009) increased at a rate of 0.04 (± 0.41) ˚C and 0.3(± 0.13)˚C from 2010-2011 which is consistent to the farmers (82.5%) observations. Rainfall within the districts are characterised by inter-annual and monthly variability. It experienced an increased rate of 0.66 (± 8.30) mm from 1970-2009, which was inconsistent with the farmers (81.5%) observation. It however decreased from 2010-2011 at a huge rate of -22.49 (±15.90) mm which probably was the reason majority of the respondents claim rainfall was decreasing. Only 64.5% of the respondents had adjusted their farming activities because of climate variability and change. They apply fertilizers and pesticides, practice soil and water conservation, and irrigation for communities close to dams. Respondents desire to continue their current adaptation methods but may in the future consider changing crop variety, water-harvesting techniques, change crop production to livestock keeping, and possibly migrate to urban centers. Lack of climate change education, low access to credit and agricultural inputs are some militating factors crippling the farmers’ effort to adapt to climate change.

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Vulnerability Assessment to Climate Variability and Climate Change in Tijuana, Mexico

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su10072352 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 2352 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Roberto Sánchez Rodríguez ◽

Aarón Morales Santos

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Vulnerability Assessment

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Detecting Climate Fingerprints in Southern Ocean Carbon using a Biogeochemical Ocean Model

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11116 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Rebecca Wright ◽

Corinne Le Quéré ◽

Erik Buitenhuis ◽

Dorothee Bakker

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Southern Ocean ◽

Observational Data ◽

Ecosystem Dynamics ◽

Global Ocean ◽

Subsurface Waters ◽

Climatic Drivers ◽

Ocean Carbon ◽

And Storage

The Southern Ocean plays an important role in the uptake, transport and storage of carbon by the global oceans. These properties are dominated by the response to the rise in anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, but they are modulated by climate variability and climate change. Here we explore the effect of climate variability and climate change on ocean carbon uptake and storage in the Southern Ocean. We assess the extent to which climate change may be distinguishable from the anthropogenic CO2 signal and from the natural background variability. We use a combination of biogeochemical ocean modelling and observations from the GLODAPv2020 database to detect climate fingerprints in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC).We conduct an ensemble of hindcast model simulations of the period 1920-2019, using a global ocean biogeochemical model which incorporates plankton ecosystem dynamics based on twelve plankton functional types. We use the model ensemble to isolate the changes in DIC due to rising anthropogenic CO2 alone and the changes due to climatic drivers (both climate variability and climate change), to determine their relative roles in the emerging total DIC trends and patterns. We analyse these DIC trends for a climate fingerprint over the past four decades, across spatial scales from the Southern Ocean, to basin level and down to regional ship transects. Highly sampled ship transects were extracted from GLODAPv2020 to obtain locations with the maximum spatiotemporal coverage, to reduce the inherent biases in patchy observational data. Model results were sampled to the ship transects to compare the climate fingerprints directly to the observational data.Model results show a substantial change in DIC over a 35-year period, with a range of more than +/- 30 &#181;mol/L. In the surface ocean, both anthropogenic CO2 and climatic drivers act to increase DIC concentration, with the influence of anthropogenic CO2 dominating at lower latitudes and the influence of climatic drivers dominating at higher latitudes. In the deep ocean, the anthropogenic CO2 generally acts to increase DIC except in the subsurface waters at lower latitudes, while climatic drivers act to decrease DIC concentration. The combined fingerprint of anthropogenic CO2 and climatic drivers on DIC concentration is for an increasing trend at the surface and decreasing trends in low latitude subsurface waters. Preliminary comparison of the model fingerprints to observational ship transects will also be presented.

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Investigating the effects of climate change on structural resistance and actions

10.2749/ghent.2021.0974 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andre Orcesi ◽

Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga ◽

Olga Markogiannaki ◽

Yue Li ◽

Franck Schoefs ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Natural Hazards ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Performance Indicator ◽

Design Life ◽

Structural Durability ◽

Structural Resistance ◽

Physical And Chemical ◽

Life Function

One major issue when considering the effects of climate change is to understand, qualify and quantify how natural hazards and the changing climate will likely impact infrastructure assets and services as it strongly depends on current and future climate variability, location, asset design life, function and condition. So far, there is no well-defined and agreed performance indicator that isolates the effects of climate change for structures. Rather, one can mention some key considerations on how climate change may produce changes of vulnerability due to physical and chemical actions affecting structural durability or changes of the exposure in terms of intensity/frequency of extreme events. This paper considers these two aspects and associated challenges, considering some recent activities of members of the IABSE TG6.1.

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