scholarly journals ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS SENTIMENTS IN INDONESIAN POLITICS: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2017 JAKARTA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Nathanael Gratias Sumaktoyo
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Religious Influence ◽  
Ethnic Chinese ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Gubernatorial Election

Abstract Studies have documented how ethnic and religious sentiments shape the voting behavior of Indonesian Muslims. However, to date no studies have carefully measured the relative influence of these sentiments. I fill this gap in the literature by taking advantage of the candidacy of a Christian, ethnic Chinese candidate in the 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election in Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok). Employing an original survey of Jakartan Muslims, I show through experimental and correlational analyses that Muslim voters are more opposed to Ahok than non-Muslim voters are and that this opposition is driven more by Ahok's ethnicity, as opposed to his religion. I also show that Muslim voters’ feelings toward ethnic Chinese shape their support for Ahok more than their feelings toward Christians. I discuss how these findings inform our understanding of the limits and extent of religious influence on Muslim voting behavior.

scholarly journals Preferences, vote choice, and the politics of social investment: Addressing the puzzle of unequal benefits of childcare provision

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
ERIK NEIMANNS
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Investment ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
Original Survey

Abstract Research on the politics of social investment finds public opinion to be highly supportive of expansive reforms and expects this support to matter for the politics of expanding social investment. Expanding social investment, it is argued, should be particularly attractive to left-wing voters and parties because of the egalitarian potential of such policies. However, few studies have examined to what extent individual preferences concerning social investment really matter politically. In this paper, I address this research gap for the crucial policy field of childcare by examining how individual-level preferences for expanding childcare provision translate into voting behavior. Based on original survey data from eight European countries, I find that preferences to expand public childcare spending indeed translate into electoral support for the left. However, this link from preferences to votes turns out to be socially biased. Childcare preferences are much more decisive for voting the further up individuals are in the income distribution. This imperfect transmission from preferences to voting behavior implies that political parties could have incentives to target the benefits of childcare reforms to their more affluent voters. My findings help to explain why governments frequently fail to reduce social inequality of access to seemingly egalitarian childcare provision.

Understanding Michigan's Electoral Competitiveness: Swing Counties 1976-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 47 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-201
Author(s):  
JOHN S. KLEMANSKI ◽  
DAVID A. DULIO ◽  
DOUGLAS A. CARR
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Barack Obama ◽  
County Level ◽  
Major Focus ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Media Attention ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Electoral Competitiveness

ABSTRACT Considerable media attention was given to the so-called “pivot counties” in the U.S. and in Michigan that flipped from supporting Barack Obama twice to voting for Donald Trump in 2016. We first summarize theories of voting behavior and speculate about why Michigan has been consistently competitive over the years. We explore 40 years' worth of county-level presidential and gubernatorial election results in Michigan to determine how frequently counties have flipped across a large number of elections. We find that a number of Michigan counties frequently flip between elections, but the number of competitive Michigan counties has substantially declined in recent decades. Turnout in larger counties can affect election outcomes, and large counties that swing have been key bellwethers in past elections, and should be a major focus of research on future elections in Michigan.

Influence of Significant Others' Perceived Voting Behaviors on Children's Political Socialization

1982 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 995-1001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kitty G. Abraham
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Political Socialization ◽  
Significant Others ◽  
Relative Influence ◽  
Mothers And Fathers

This study investigated the relative influence of parents, peers, and teachers on children's voting behavior. 66 children in grades 3, 4, and 5 were interviewed about their voting preferences and perceptions of significant others' voting preferences. Analysis indicated that mothers and fathers held the most important positions of influence over their children relative to voting. Discussion focused on the implications of these findings for political socialization of children.

scholarly journals Religion and Voting Behavior: Evidence from the 2017 Jakarta Gubernatorial Election

2020 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 419-450
Author(s):  
Saiful Mujani
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Religious Identity ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Religious Identities ◽  
Public Opinion Surveys ◽  
Muslim Religiosity ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Rare Instance

In voting behavior studies, the effect of religion on partisan choice relative to psychological factors and political economy has not been conclusively determined. In Indonesian politics, religion has frequently been understood as a typology of Muslim religiosity, i.e. santri versus abangan, or orthodox versus heterodox Muslim. This conception does not significantly predict election outcomes. The effect of religious identity, i.e. Islam versus other religion, on voting is not discernable so far because it has not been systematically tested. The 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election is a rare instance in which the contestants have different religious identities in an almost homogenous society. This setting is ideal. This essay reports the results of a test from public opinion surveys prior to and an exit poll on election day. The result verified that religion explains very significantly how the Muslim candidate won. Political economy and partisanship, however, save the incumbent from a big loss. These findings have more systematically revised the existing comparative and Indonesian literature on the relationship between religion and voting behavior.[Dalam studi perilaku memilih, perbandingan pengaruh agama, faktor psikologis, maupun ekonomi politik, terhadap pilihan partai atau calon dalam pemilihan umum belum konklusif. Dalam politik Indonesia, agama sering difahami dalam tipologi keberagamaan santri versus abangan, atau Muslim puritan versus Muslim sinkretis. Konsepsi agama ini tidak punya pengaruh signifikan terhadap perilaku memilih dalam pemilihan umum sejauh ini. Sementara itu pengaruh identitas agama, yakni Islam versus agama lainnya, terhadap perilaku memilih sejauh ini juga tidak banyak terlihat karena belum teruji secara sistematik. Pemilihan gubernur DKI Jakarta 2017 adalah contoh kasus langka di Indonesia di mana calon-calon gubernurnya punya identitas agama berbeda sementara pemilihnya hampir homogen dilihat dari identitas agamanya. Keadaan ini ideal untuk menguji pengaruh identitas agama terhadap perilaku memilih. Artikel ini merupakan laporan hasil uji perbandingan pengaruh identitas agama, faktor psikologis, dan ekonomi-politik pada perilaku memilih gubernur, dan bersandar pada data survei opini publik sebelum dan di hari pemilihan. Hasilnya membuktikan bahwa identitas agama sangat mempengaruhi bagimana calon gubernur beragama Islam menang dalam pemilihan tersebut. Namun demikian, pengaruh ekonomi-politik dan identitas kepartaian menolong petahana yang non-Muslim dari kekalahan telak. Temuan-temuan ini merevisi referensi studi politik perbandingan dan Indonesia terkait hubungan agama dan perilaku memilih.]

scholarly journals How “Us” and “Them” Relates to Voting Behavior—Social Structure, Social Identities, and Electoral Choice

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402199750
Author(s):  
Simon Bornschier ◽  
Silja Häusermann ◽  
Delia Zollinger ◽  
Céline Colombo
Keyword(s):  
Social Structure ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
New Left ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Social Identities ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Group Boundaries ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
Group Identities ◽  
Original Survey

The last decades have seen the emergence of a divide pitting the new left against the far right in advanced democracies. We study how this universalism-particularism divide is crystallizing into a full-blown cleavage, complete with structural, political and identity elements. So far, little research exists on the identities that voters themselves perceive as relevant for drawing in- and out-group boundaries along this divide. Based on an original survey from Switzerland, a paradigmatic case of electoral realignment, we show that voters’ “objective” socio-demographic characteristics relate to distinctive, primarily culturally connoted identities. We then inquire into the degree to which these group identities have been politicized, that is, whether they divide new left and far right voters. Our results strongly suggest that the universalism-particularism “cleavage” not only bundles issues, but shapes how people think about who they are and where they stand in a group conflict that meshes economics and culture.

scholarly journals Chinese Ethnic Youth's Voting Behavior in the 2018 Palembang Mayoral Election

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-91
Author(s):  
Khairunnas Khairunnas ◽  
Leo Agustino ◽  
Widya Setiabudi Sumadinata
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Survey Design ◽  
Voter Behavior ◽  
Leadership Performance ◽  
Chinese Youth ◽  
Ethnic Chinese ◽  
Mayoral Election ◽  
Rational Choices ◽  
History Of ◽  
The City

The emergence of demographic issues makes research related to the behavior of beginner voters very interesting to do, some studies have managed to find a tendency for beginner voter behavior, and several other studies have also succeeded in finding trends in voting behavior against ethnic identity. Therefore researchers are interested in discussing and describing the tendency of voter behavior in certain age categories which are also clashed with ethnicity factors. Chinese ethnicity is an ethnic minority that has a long history on the Indonesian political stage, and the city of Palembang is one of the cities in Indonesia that has left a lot of evidence of the history of Chinese civilization, even from the time of the Srivijaya Empire. This study aims to determine the behavioral trends of choosing Chinese Ethnic Youth in the Mayor and Deputy Mayor of Palembang in 2018. The method used in this study is a quantitative method with a survey design. The unit of analysis of this study was ethnic Chinese youth who were members of the Indonesian Chinese Youth Association (IPTI) in Palembang City. This study uses a voter behavior approach with an analysis of three models, namely sociological, psychological and rational choices. Based on the results of the research in the field it can be concluded that the behavior of choosing Chinese Ethnic Youth in the Mayor and Deputy Mayor of Palembang in 2018 has a tendency towards psychological and rational voting behavior. Psychologically, the behavior of choosing ethnic Chinese youth tends to be influenced by indicators of the influence of campaigns and figures of candidates, while rationally tends to be influenced by the leadership performance indicators of candidates in the previous period. Keywords: voting behavior, youth, Chinese ethnic group, 2018 Palembang mayoral election Abstrak Munculnya isu demografi membuat penelitian terkait perilaku pemilih pemula sangat menarik untuk dilakukan, beberapa penelitian berhasil menemukan kecenderungan perilaku pemilih pemula, dan beberapa penelitian lainnya juga berhasil menemukan kecenderungan perilaku memilih yang dilatarbelakangi identitas etnis. Oleh sebab itu peneliti tertarik membahas dan menguraikan kecenderungan perilaku pemilih dalam kategori usia tertentu yang juga dibenturkan dengan faktor etnisitas. Etnis Tionghoa merupakan etnis minoritas yang memiliki sejarah panjang di panggung politik Indonesia, dan Kota Palembang merupakan salah satu kota di Indonesia yang banyak meninggalkan bukti sejarah peradaban Tionghoa, bahkan sejak zaman Kerajaan Sriwijaya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kecenderungan perilaku memilih Pemuda Etnis Tionghoa pada Pemilihan Walikota dan Wakil Walikota Palembang tahun 2018. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode kuantitatif dengan rancangan survei. Unit analisis penelitian ini adalah pemuda Etnis Tionghoa yang tergabung dalam Ikatan Pemuda Tionghoa Indonesia (IPTI) Kota Palembang. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan perilaku pemilih dengan analisis tiga Model, yakni Model sosiologis, psikologis dan pilihan rasional. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian di lapangan dapat disimpulkan bahwa perilaku memilih Pemuda Etnis Tionghoa pada Pemilihan Walikota dan Wakil Walikota Palembang tahun 2018 memiliki kecenderungan perilaku pemilih psikologis dan rasional. Secara psikologis perilaku memilih pemuda Etnis Tionghoa cenderung dipengaruhi oleh indikator pengaruh kampanye dan ketokohan calon, sedangkan secara rasional cenderung dipengaruhi oleh indikator prestasi kepemimpinan calon pada periode sebelumnya. Kata kunci: perilaku memilih, pemuda, etnis Tionghoa, pilkada kota Palembang 2018

scholarly journals Silent Political Apathy in Urban Society: The Case of Medan 2018 Election

2021 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 171
Author(s):  
Derajad Sulistyo Widhyharto ◽  
Desi Rahmawati ◽  
Norin Mustika Rahadiri Abheseka
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Social Aspects ◽  
Social Cleavages ◽  
Social Perspectives ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The Social ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Political Apathy ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
North Sumatra

Studies on non-voting behavior and which depart from social perspectives have long been stagnated due to the dominance of analysis that puts systems, institutionalization, political mechanisms and participation as the main viewpoints of the studies. This study using social perspectives is useful to explain why voters were not present at polling stations during the Medan 2018 Election. It elaborates the social aspects that influenced non-voting behavior in the urban area of Medan in North Sumatra, Indonesia during the 2018 gubernatorial election. Utilizing mix- method strategies, instead of citing social aspects as a mere research context, this article argues that social aspects in the form of social cleavages worked behind the silent apathy, namely apathy that was implicitly indicated by voters who were not present at polling stations. Social cleavages including ethnicity, religion and gender indicated a paradox since they—with the exception of gender—were used by candidates as the main campaign substance. On the other hand, large numbers of people showed disinterest in these social cleavages during the election. This article explains why abstained voters hid their disinterest behind their excuses for not being present at the polling stations for economic (working activities) and other reasons.

scholarly journals Does the Media Matter? A Field Experiment Measuring the Effect of Newspapers on Voting Behavior and Political Opinions

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan S Gerber ◽  
Dean Karlan ◽  
Daniel Bergan
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiment ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Control Treatment ◽  
Washington Post ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
The Media ◽  
Media Slant ◽  
Gubernatorial Election ◽  
Political Opinions

We conducted a field experiment to measure the effect of exposure to newspapers on political behavior and opinion. Before the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial election, we randomly assigned individuals to a Washington Post free subscription treatment, a Washington Times free subscription treatment, or a control treatment. We find no effect of either paper on political knowledge, stated opinions, or turnout in post-election survey and voter data. However, receiving either paper led to more support for the Democratic candidate, suggesting that media slant mattered less in this case than media exposure. Some evidence from voting records also suggests that receiving either paper led to increased 2006 voter turnout. (JEL D72, L82)

scholarly journals Noncooperation by Popular Vote: Expectations, Foreign Intervention, and the Vote in the 2015 Greek Bailout Referendum

2018 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 969-994 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanie Walter ◽  
Elias Dinas ◽  
Ignacio Jurado ◽  
Nikitas Konstantinidis
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
International Agreements ◽  
The Other ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Powerful Effect ◽  
Foreign Intervention ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Costly Signals

AbstractWhen popular referendums fail to ratify new international agreements or succeed in reversing existing ones, it not only affects domestic voters but also creates negative spillovers for the other parties to such agreements. We explore how voters respond to this strategic environment. We use original survey data from a poll fielded just one day before the 2015 Greek bailout referendum—a referendum in which the stakes for other countries were particularly high—to investigate how expectations about the likely foreign response to a noncooperative referendum outcome influence voting behavior and to what extent foreign policymakers can influence those expectations. Our analysis of the Greek referendum shows that such expectations had a powerful effect on voting behavior: voters expecting that a noncooperative referendum outcome would force Greece to leave the eurozone were substantially more likely to vote cooperatively than those believing that it would result in renewed negotiations with the country's creditors. Leveraging the bank closure that took place right before the vote, we also show that costly signals by foreign actors made voters more pessimistic about the consequences of a noncooperative vote and substantially increased the share of cooperative votes.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document