scholarly journals Preferences, vote choice, and the politics of social investment: Addressing the puzzle of unequal benefits of childcare provision

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
ERIK NEIMANNS
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Investment ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Preferences ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
Original Survey

Abstract Research on the politics of social investment finds public opinion to be highly supportive of expansive reforms and expects this support to matter for the politics of expanding social investment. Expanding social investment, it is argued, should be particularly attractive to left-wing voters and parties because of the egalitarian potential of such policies. However, few studies have examined to what extent individual preferences concerning social investment really matter politically. In this paper, I address this research gap for the crucial policy field of childcare by examining how individual-level preferences for expanding childcare provision translate into voting behavior. Based on original survey data from eight European countries, I find that preferences to expand public childcare spending indeed translate into electoral support for the left. However, this link from preferences to votes turns out to be socially biased. Childcare preferences are much more decisive for voting the further up individuals are in the income distribution. This imperfect transmission from preferences to voting behavior implies that political parties could have incentives to target the benefits of childcare reforms to their more affluent voters. My findings help to explain why governments frequently fail to reduce social inequality of access to seemingly egalitarian childcare provision.

Partisanship, Militarized International Conflict, and Electoral Support for the Incumbent

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 172-183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shane P. Singh ◽  
Jaroslav Tir
Keyword(s):  
Political Behavior ◽  
Comparative Politics ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Interstate Disputes ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Militarized Interstate Disputes

Comparative politics scholarship often neglects to consider how militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) shape political behavior. In this project, we advance an argument that considers voter responses to international conflict at the individual level. In particular, we consider how the well-known conditioning effects of partisanship manifest in relation to militarized international conflict. Examining individual- and macro-level data across ninety-seven elections in forty-two countries over the 1996–2011 period, we find consistent evidence of militarized conflict impacting vote choice. This relationship is, however, moderated by partisanship, conflict side (initiator or target), and conflict hostility level. Among non-copartisan voters, the incumbent benefits the most electorally from initiating low-hostility MIDs or when the country is a target of a high-hostility MID; the opposite scenarios (initiator of a high-hostility MID or target of a low-hostility MID) lead to punishment among this voter group. Copartisans, meanwhile, tend to either maintain or intensify their support in most scenarios we examine; when a country is targeted in a low-hostility MID, copartisan support erodes mildly.

Mobilization Against the Left? Partisan Consequences of Voter Turnout in the Post-Communist Context

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Nový
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Explanatory Mechanism

AbstractDoes higher turnout support left-wing parties, as many previous studies assume? Theoretical discussions thus far have been relatively inconclusive. This study proposes three different explanatory mechanisms for examining an aggregate-level relationship between turnout and electoral support for political parties in the post-communist milieu. The conventional hypothesis, based on the assumptions of a successful re-stratification of society and the relevance of class voting, states that higher turnout benefits the left. The second hypothesis is derived from the Michigan model of party identification. In this case, political parties with less loyal electorates would be expected to profit from higher rates of electoral participation. However, this article makes the case for a third possible explanation, termed simply “mobilization against the left,” which reverses the conventional hypothesis. The idea is that the more people come to the polls, the stronger the post-communist right-wing parties will be. This analysis includes two Czech regions that can be said to be farthest away from each other in terms of their socioeconomic and political characteristics. Having analyzed the 2010 Czech parliamentary election results across 1444 electoral districts in two regions, Central Bohemia and Moravia-Silesia, we conclude that there is certain empirical evidence that supports the proposed explanatory mechanism regarding the relationship between voter turnout and share of votes for political parties.

The Class Basis of Arqentine Political Parties

1969 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 163-167
Author(s):  
Peter G. Snow
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The Other ◽  
Industrial Workers ◽  
Middle Classes ◽  
Party Leaders ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
The Social

Students of Latin American political parties have long assumed a strong correlation between social class and party identification, yet this assumption has never been tested empirically in any of the Latin American nations. This is probably due in large part to the lack of reliable survey data; however, even the mass of aggregate voting data has seldom been analyzed systematically. As a result, most of what we know—or think we know—about voting behavior in Latin America is based upon the intuitive assumptions of North American scholars. “If I were a member of the Chilean middle class, I would probably vote for the Radicals or Christian Democrats, but on the other hand if I were quite wealthy I would probably vote for the Conservatives.”Students of Argentine politics assume that the Conservative parties, always representing the interests of the nation's aristocracy, have received the bulk of their votes from the large landowners; that the interests of this group consistently have been opposed by the Radical parties who receive their electoral support from the urban middle classes; and that the more recently formed Peronist parties have championed the cause of, and been supported at the polls by, the industrial workers. It is the purpose of this article to test these assumptions, primarily through analysis of aggregate voting data, but also by examining the social backgrounds of party leaders and their actions while in power.

Christian Right Horticulture: Grassroots Support in a Republican Primary Campaign

2008 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Djupe ◽  
Jacob R. Neiheisel
Keyword(s):  
Social Structure ◽  
Christian Right ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Comprehensive Model ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Grassroots Support ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
Effective Group

AbstractSeizing upon the opportunity afforded by a Republican primary contest in which a candidate backed by the Christian Right took on a candidate with connections to the party establishment, we examine the strength of the Christian right at the grassroots in Ohio. Using individual-level data compiled from an original survey instrument administered to over 1,000 Republican primary voters just after the May, 2006 primary, we present a more comprehensive model of both Christian Right support and the effect of Christian Right support on the vote choice. Instead of assuming a grassroots presence underpinning the movement, we assert and test the argument that natural elements of the social structure inhibit effective group access to collections of supporters. In doing so, we provide an explanation for the often observed gulf between movement identifiers and opinion-based supporters.

Economic Considerations and the 2008 Presidential Election

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (03) ◽  
pp. 473-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Holbrook
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Personal Finances ◽  
Incumbent Party ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Economic Considerations

The idea that economic conditions influence election outcomes and voting behavior is hardly novel and would appear to be close to uniformly accepted, especially in the case of American presidential elections. Beginning with the early aggregate studies (Arcelus and Meltzer 1975; Bloom and Price 1975; Kramer 1971; Tufte 1978) and the important individual-level work that followed soon thereafter (Kiewiet 1983; Kinder and Kiewiet 1979, 1981; Fiorina 1981), election scholars have devoted considerable attention to the influence of the economy on voting behavior and election outcomes. Although the findings are many and sometimes disparate, a few general conclusions have emerged: economic voting is incumbency oriented rather than policy oriented (Fiorina 1981; Kiewiet 1983); at the individual level, evaluations of the national economy are more closely tied to vote choice than are evaluations of personal finances (Kiewiet 1983; Kinder and Kiewiet 1979, 1981; Kinder, Adams, and Gronke 1989); and, with the exception of 2000, the incumbent party is habitually returned to office when economic times are good and tossed out when economic times are bad (Campbell and Garand 2000). In short, we know a lot about how the economy influences voters and elections, and it would seem that there are few issues left to resolve.

scholarly journals Euroscepticism as a radical left party strategy for success

2021 ◽  
pp. 135406882110389
Author(s):  
Sarah Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Right Wing ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Political Debate ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
Party Strategy ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Left Party ◽  
Radical Left

The European Union has gained salience as an issue in political debate. Recent literature shows that successful radical right-wing parties are frequently in opposition to European integration. This article looks at how radical left-wing parties’ positions on EU integration affect their electoral support. It argues that radical left parties can mobilize voters in their favour through positioning in opposition to EU integration because this allows voters to combine their left-wing economic and anti-EU preferences. Using expert and individual-level survey data, this research demonstrates that radical left-wing parties that position themselves against EU integration are more likely to gain individuals’ vote choice. This finding is surprising, given that traditionally radical left-wing parties are defined through their economic, rather than their non-economic, positions. This article demonstrates that variation in positioning around non-economic issues such as EU integration can explain differences in voter support across radical left-wing parties.

scholarly journals Think Twice before Jumping on the Bandwagon: Clarifying Concepts in Research on the Bandwagon Effect

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 553-574 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Barnfield
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Potential Influence ◽  
Bandwagon Effect ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Individual Vote ◽  
Nuanced Understanding ◽  
Underlying Processes ◽  
Bandwagon Effects ◽  
Made In

The potential influence of perceived popularity of political parties or candidates on individual vote choice is most commonly studied in terms of a ‘bandwagon effect’. However, there is confusion over exactly what the bandwagon effect is. In this article, I seek to remedy this confusion by providing a clear definition and typology of bandwagon effects, grounded in a review which reappraises existing scholarship. I argue that the bandwagon effect is a distinct social phenomenon involving an individual-level change in vote choice or turnout decision towards a more or increasingly popular candidate or party, motivated initially by this popularity. I then break this down employing a typology which draws on distinctions made in the literature between static and dynamic, and conversion and mobilisation effects. This conception of the bandwagon effect leaves it open to the operation of a variety of possible underlying processes. Scholars should apply such clear concepts as are proposed here in bandwagon research, to situate and clarify their contributions theoretically and offer a more nuanced understanding of whether, how and why bandwagon effects occur across different political contexts.

scholarly journals The measurement, structure, and cross-cultural equivalence of political party perception. Evidence from Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-224
Author(s):  
Oleg Gorbaniuk ◽  
Michał Wilczewski ◽  
Ana Ivanova ◽  
Halyna Bevz ◽  
Julia Gorbaniuk
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Structural Model ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Cross Cultural ◽  
Dimensional Structure ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Political Preferences

This paper examines the cross-cultural universality of the structural model of (voter) perception of political parties (PPP) in three ex-communist countries with party-centered systems, but with different economic and cultural backgrounds, and different levels of democracy development. We conducted a confirmatory study of a five-dimensional structure of PPP, which had been established through lexical research, using data from voters in Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine. The structure involved personality-related dimensions (Strength, Disagreeableness, and Integrity) and non-personality dimensions, such as worldview (Left Wing vs. Right Wing) and evaluation (Backwardness vs. Modernity). The study revealed the configural and metric invariance of the structure of PPP. Its dimensions explain political preferences in each country at the individual level, but also differentiate between PPPs at the between-country level, both in the group of supporters and opponents of political parties. We linked voter perceptions with political preferences by presenting a five-factor model of PPP established on a valid and reliable psychometric inventory.

Pack Your Politics! Assessing the Vote Choice of Latino Interstate Migrants

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 130-165
Author(s):  
Robert R. Preuhs
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Political ◽  
Underlying Assumption ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Data Limitations ◽  
Previous State ◽  
Migratory Patterns ◽  
Destination State

AbstractWhile popular narratives regarding the destiny of demographics assume Latino interstate migrants will alter destination state politics as Latinos disperse across the states, no studies directly assess the empirical validity of the underlying assumption of migrant's political preferences. Moreover, established theories of domestic migrant preferences suggest a variety of potential individual-level behaviors that often diverge from the underlying assumption of a uniform introduction of more liberal voters. Employing data from the 2016 Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey, this study presents an analysis on Latino interstate migrant voting behavior, while also overcoming a variety of data limitations in existing studies. Countering some previous findings that homophily, adaptation, or even a static liberal orientation describes migrant voting behavior, the results suggest that Latino interstate migrant preferences vary by the political context of their previous state of residence. The results imply that the destiny of demographics will be conditioned, to some extent, by the migratory patterns of Latinos and the dyad of departure and destination states. When Latinos leave liberal (conservative) states, they bring more liberal (conservative) policies. In short, Latinos seem to pack their politics when moving across state lines.

scholarly journals Mobilizace proti levici? Stranické konsekvence volební účasti v kontextu postkomunismu

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Nový
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Party Support

Does higher turnout support left-wing parties, as many previous studies assume? And does communist legacy somehow project on the mentioned relationship? The theoretical discussion is still relatively unclear. This study proposes three different explanatory mechanisms of examining aggregate-level relationship between turnout and electoral support for political parties in the post-communist milieu. The mainstream hypothesis, based on the assumptions of a successful re-stratification of the society and the relevance of class voting, states that higher turnout benefits the left. The second option is derived from the Michigan model of party identification. In this case, political parties with less loyal electorate should profit from higher rates of electoral participation. However, this article makes a case for a third possible explanation, which turns the conventional hypothesis upside down and can be termed simply as „mobilization against the left“. The idea is that the more people come to the polls, the stronger the post-communist right wing parties will be. Moreover, I include in my analysis only two electoral districts (regions) that can be said to be the farthest away from each other in their socioeconomic and political characteristics. Such an approach makes it possible to answer the question whether the expected effect is uniform or unequal across electoral districts in one country. Based on the analysis of election results in 1444 constituencies of two electoral districts in the Central Bohemian and Moravian-Silesian regions in the 2010 Parliamentary elections, I conclude that the proposed approach to the issue of party support and voter turnout has strong empirical support.

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