scholarly journals Reexamining the Effect of Refugees on Civil Conflict: A Global Subnational Analysis

Author(s):  
YANG-YANG ZHOU ◽  
ANDREW SHAVER

A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been overlooked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil conflict at the subnational level, we find no evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict, prolongs existing conflict, or raises the number of violent events or casualties. Furthermore, we explore conditions where provinces are likely to experience substantively large decreases in conflict risk due to increased development. Analysis examining nighttime lights as a measure of development, coupled with expert interviews, support our claim. To address the possibility of selection bias, we use placebo tests and matching. Our research challenges assertions that refugees are security risks. Instead, we show that in many cases, hosting refugees can encourage local development and even conflict reduction.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingsheng Liu ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Jiaming Zhang ◽  
Xiaoming Wang ◽  
Yuan Chang ◽  
...  

AbstractAchieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is a long-term task, which puts forward high requirements on the sustainability of related policies and actions. Using the text analysis method, we analyze the China National Sustainable Communities (CNSCs) policy implemented over 30 years and its effects on achieving SDGs. We find that the national government needs to understand the scope of sustainable development more comprehensively, the sustained actions can produce positive effects under the right goals. The SDGs selection of local governments is affected by local development levels and resource conditions, regions with better economic foundations tend to focus on SDGs on human well-being, regions with weaker foundations show priority to basic SDGs on the economic development, infrastructures and industrialization.


2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Mario Mustilli ◽  
Filomena Izzo ◽  
Domenico Graziano

Creative industries are one of the main productive factors that fuel quality and competition; driving forces of the Italian economy. Creative industries are leading the economic growth all over the world through their techniques, among which are Co-creation and Design Thinking. New business models are being developed which are having positive effects on other business sectors and on the urban areas where they are located.This research analyzes whether creative industries in the Goldsmith Center in Caserta (Tarì) are adopting the same innovative techniques (esp. Co-creation and Design Thinking) and if they are able to contribute to the territorial economic development.Interviews were carried out to determine the awareness of the innovative techniques (Co-creation and Design Thinking) and their potential.The results of the research indicate some confusion on the innovative techniques – Co-creation and Design Thinking – but there is a general consensus on the advantages, with positive effects on the local and/or regional business communities.The results, in short, show that the craftsmanship of the goldsmiths in Caserta, or rather, the creative sector in question, can have some positive effects even on other business sectors in the province of Caserta and, therefore, on local development.


2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 499-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaisa Hinkkainen Elliott ◽  
Joakim Kreutz

Previous studies on natural resources and civil wars find that the presence of natural resources increases both civil conflict risk and duration. At the same time, belligerents often cooperate over resource extraction, suggesting a temporal variation in the contest over this subnational space. This study argues that parties fight over natural resources primarily when they expect that the conflict is about to end, as the importance of controlling them increases in the post-conflict setting. In contrast, belligerents that anticipate a long war have incentives to avoid fighting near natural resources since excessive violence will hurt the extraction, trade, and subsequent taxation that provide conflict actors with income from the resource. We test our argument using yearly and monthly grid-cell-level data on African civil conflicts for the period 1989–2008 and find support for our expected spatial variation. Using whether negotiations are underway as an indicator about warring parties’ expectations on conflict duration, we find that areas with natural resources in general experience less intense fighting than other areas, but during negotiations these very areas witness most of the violence. We further find that the spatial shift in violence occurs immediately when negotiations are opened. A series of difference-in-difference estimations show a visible shift of violence towards areas rich in natural resources in the first three months after parties have initiated talks. Our findings are relevant for scholarship on understanding and predicting the trajectories of micro-level civil conflict violence, and for policymakers seeking to prevent peace processes being derailed.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mio Fredriksson ◽  
Inga-Britt Gustafsson ◽  
Ulrika Winblad

Abstract Background The sustainability of programmes and interventions is more rarely studied than initial implementation. The aim of this study was to investigate, from a sustainability perspective, the implementation of an extensive decommissioning programme in one of the local health systems in Sweden (a so-called region). Decommissioning may become increasingly relevant because health systems today face many challenges that increase the pressure on existing resources.Methods Interviews were performed with 26 clinic managers 3 years after initial implementation of a decommissioning programme. The analysis was based on a model of potential influences on sustainability by Wiltsey Stirman et al.Results Initial adoption was possible due to the involvement of the clinic managers in developing the programme, which comprised everything from closed and merged units to formalised admission criteria, altered prescription patterns and changed patient pathways. Conditions for sustainability were created by changed and intensified meeting structures that resulted in learning networks and through the clinic managers’ central role balancing the staff’s claims while trying to execute the region leadership’s demands. Factors working against sustainability were, among others, fragmented support from the health system’s central functions for HR and economy, altered local conditions with an escalating staffing crisis, too few follow-ups and a decline in the strategic leadership over the years.Conclusions We conclude that the programme was partly sustained and that the most important influences were intervention fit and modifications (i. innovation characteristics), clinic and health system leadership (ii. context), workforce and champions (iii. capacity) and shared decision-making and relationship building (iv. processes and interactions). Perhaps most important for sustainability was the continuous attention to the health system’s poor economy, visible via a great effort by the clinics to keep their budgets—a change in the culture at the clinics. Furthermore, the study shows that, although unpopular, there are also positive effects of decommissioning from the perspective of the primary implementers, e.g., opportunities to make difficult but necessary changes and increased collegial support when centralising services.


2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (53) ◽  
pp. 311-322
Author(s):  
Oleg Gurshev

AbstractThis article focuses on the determinants of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) in Russia. The article briefly describes the historical context of foreign investment policymaking in Russia since the beginning of the economic transition to an open market economy after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. When compared to other developing countries, Russia's FDI stocks continue to lag despite a set of proactive measures undertaken by the national government. Following the literature review, the most commonly cited determinants explaining inward FDI in Russia include market size, labour productivity, trade and investment barriers, domestic exchange rate, rule of law and institutional framework.This article aims to contribute empirically to the study of determinants of inward FDI in Russia.This article uses the Pseudo-Poisson Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation technique, the robustness of the PPML estimation is then verified using a standard autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the Durbin–Watson autocorrelation test.Our benchmark results suggest the efficiency-seeking motive of FDI over a market seeking and horizontal motive as a main reason for inward FDI in Russia. The ARIMA regression indicates the absence of statistical significance of economic openness and variables of labour productivity. Overall, the market size and tax rate variables have the most positive effects on the inward FDI, while barriers to trade and sanctions have the most negative effects. The results confirm that for transitional economies, integration into the world economy, proactive local development and tax cuts for outside investors remain to be critical when it comes to attracting FDI.


2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiyu Han

In this article, it discusses the differences in economic development between urban and rural areas and regions in our country from the perspective of education investment and fixed asset investment. Based on the provincial data of 31 provinces from 1999 to 2017 released by National Bureau of Statistics, it expends the Cobb-Douglas model and Lucas model, and analyses the data with multiple linear regression models. From the study, it finds that compared with investment in fixed assets, investment in education has a larger role in promoting economic development, which is more obvious in the underdeveloped central and western regions and rural areas. However, at the same time it needs to note that the positive effects of education investment will be restricted by the economic structure and policy environment, and education expenditure policies should also be implemented in accordance with time and local conditions.


2022 ◽  
pp. 106-130
Author(s):  
Mafalda Marques ◽  
João Reis

This research focuses on slow tourism in low-density areas of Beiras and Serra da Estrela, Portugal, and explores how these genuine and authentic spaces can become attractive for tourism development. Compared to visitors who travel to a destination to visit as many attractions as possible in the shortest time, slow tourists refuse to be treated as a number and seek to receive from and give to their destination in the same proportion. Their involvement in a host community, practiced in a personalized, deep, and informed way, contributes to their well-being. The community's inhabitants recognize that their cultural identity is valued, feel motivated to serve as ambassadors, and note that tourist activities can lead to improvements in their quality of life. This research includes the results of interviews, a benchmarking in Italy, and an analysis of a village tourism. The findings reveal the opportunities they hold for slow tourism, with very positive effects for local development.


2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elisa Ticci ◽  
Javier Escobal

AbstractDuring the last 20 years, the mining sector in Peru has been experiencing sustained growth. Using census, administrative, nationally and regionally representative data we compare districts in the Peruvian Highlands with a recent mining development with suitable counterfactuals. We find that the new mining activities attract migration inflows, and have some positive effects over educational indicators, and that these impacts, on average, are smaller in districts with lower levels of corporate social expenditure. However, the results of this study suggest that the local potential welfare impact of the mining boom is largely untapped and corporate social responsibility has had a limited role in improving this effect.


Games ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Atin Basuchoudhary

Empirical investigation suggests that conflict is path-dependent, i.e., current conflict leads to more conflict in the future. However, there is very little formal theory for why conflict path dependence exists. We propose a mathematical model to explore one possible pathway to explain the persistence of conflict once it starts. In this model, there are three types of cultures in two boundedly rational populations. The two populations are State Actors and Insurgents. The three cultures are Peaceable, Warring, or Bargainers. The distribution of these types is different in each population. Evolutionary dynamics determine which of these three cultures might predominate. Our simulations suggest that it is rational for people to learn to be warlike even in environments where State Actors are willing to give large side payments to “buy” peace to avoid bargaining failure. War can also be learned when State Actors and Insurgents are extremely patient and, therefore, potentially committed to Pareto improving peace deals. The outcomes of these simulations suggest that cultural learning can be a hitherto ignored explanation for why conflict is path dependent. If culture is indeed a possible cause for conflict, the best intentions of technocratic peacemakers trying to build frameworks for resource sharing and/or institutional building may fail, simply because such structures are not suited to local conditions. On the flip side, our model also provides theoretical reasoning for the observation that conflict is not a deterministic outcome of bargaining and commitment failures.


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