Trend and decomposition analysis of risk factors of childbirths with no one present in Nigeria, 1990–2018

ObjectivesTo assess the trend and decompose the determinants of delivery with no one present (NOP) at birth with an in-depth subnational analysis in Nigeria.DesignCross-sectional.SettingNigeria, with five waves of nationally representative data in 1990, 2003, 2008, 2013 and 2018.ParticipantsWomen with at least one childbirth within 5 years preceding each wave of data collection.Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe outcome of interest is giving birth with NOP at delivery defined as childbirth assisted by no one. Data were analysed using Χ2 and multivariate decomposition analyses at a 5% significance level.ResultsThe prevalence of having NOP at delivery was 15% over the studied period, ranges from 27% in 1990 to 11% in 2018. Overall, the prevalence of having NOP at delivery reduced significantly by 35% and 61% within 2003–2018 and 1990–2018, respectively (p<0.001). We found wide variations in NOP across the states in Nigeria. The highest NOP practice was in Zamfara (44%), Kano (40%) and Katsina (35%); while the practice was 0.1% in Bayelsa, 0.8% in Enugu, 0.9% in Osun and 1.1% in Imo state. The decomposition analysis of the changes in having NOP at delivery showed that 85.4% and 14.6% were due to differences in women’s characteristics (endowment) and effects (coefficient), respectively. The most significant contributions to the changes were the decision-maker of healthcare utilisation (49%) and women educational status (24%). Only Gombe experienced a significant increase (p<0.05) in the level of having NOP between 2003 and 2018.ConclusionA long-term decreasing secular trend of NOP at delivery was found in Nigeria. NOP is more prevalent in the northern states than in the south. Achieving zero prevalence of NOP at delivery in Nigeria would require a special focus on healthcare utilisation, enhancing maternal education and healthcare utilisation decision-making power.

Lifestyle carbon footprints and changes in lifestyles to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, and ways forward for related research

This paper presents an approach for assessing lifestyle carbon footprints and lifestyle change options aimed at achieving the 1.5 °C climate goal and facilitating the transition to decarbonized lifestyles through stakeholder participatory research. Using data on Finland and Japan it shows potential impacts of reducing carbon footprints through changes in lifestyles for around 30 options covering food, housing, and mobility domains, in comparison with the 2030 and 2050 per-capita targets (2.5–3.2 tCO2e by 2030; 0.7–1.4 tCO2e by 2050). It discusses research opportunities for expanding the footprint-based quantitative analysis to incorporate subnational analysis, living lab, and scenario development aiming at advancing sustainability science on the transition to decarbonized lifestyles.

Reexamining the Effect of Refugees on Civil Conflict: A Global Subnational Analysis

A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been overlooked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil conflict at the subnational level, we find no evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict, prolongs existing conflict, or raises the number of violent events or casualties. Furthermore, we explore conditions where provinces are likely to experience substantively large decreases in conflict risk due to increased development. Analysis examining nighttime lights as a measure of development, coupled with expert interviews, support our claim. To address the possibility of selection bias, we use placebo tests and matching. Our research challenges assertions that refugees are security risks. Instead, we show that in many cases, hosting refugees can encourage local development and even conflict reduction.

Turning Over a New Leaf: A Subnational Analysis of ‘Coca Yes, Cocaine No’ in Bolivia

International pressure to suppress cocaine trafficking sustained decades of harsh drug laws in Bolivia against cocaleros (coca producers), thus affecting coca production for traditional consumption and for manufacturing illicit cocaine. These harsh drug laws caused social unrest in cocalero communities outside traditional coca zones. President Evo Morales, leader of the Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement toward Socialism, MAS) party, implemented ‘Coca Yes, Cocaine No’ (CYCN), a harm-reduction strategy that authorised ‘non-traditional’ farmers to cultivate legal coca and self-police production. This article compares CYCN outcomes in Bolivia's traditional and non-traditional coca regions and finds that strong cocalero organisations were vital to CYCN success in non-traditional areas. In contrast, organised resistance in traditional zones restricted CYCN success and added to regime instability in the lead-up to Morales’ forced resignation in 2019. Hence, while Morales harnessed state power to change drug policy, he was constrained by the rural grassroots organisations that brought him to power.

Party fragmentation and campaign spending: A subnational analysis of the German party system

Party finance allows elucidating parties’ behaviour in differing political and institutional contexts, yet only a few studies investigate expenditure patterns. Given that campaign activities are central for parties to fulfil their core functions in representative democracy, this study seeks to explain why parties invest in electoral campaigns to different degrees. We argue that high party fragmentation reinforces parties’ focus on electoral races in election years, a mechanism we refer to as the ‘campaign concentration effect’. By contrast, in less fragmented systems, parties invest more in campaigning on a continuous basis. A subnational analysis of the German party system between 2009 and 2017 provides evidence for this effect. Our results imply that growing party fragmentation nurtures parties’ efforts to succeed in elections, which is likely to intensify parties’ orientation towards short yet capital-intensive campaigns.