The Measurement of Reproductivity

1948 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 288-337 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. H. Pollard
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
List Type ◽  
Popular Press ◽  
Statistical Measure ◽  
Australian Population ◽  
Female Rate ◽  
If Current ◽  
Current Fertility

The measurement of the rate of population growth has attracted considerable attention in scientific literature of recent years. This is, no doubt, a result of the continual decline in the birth-rate which has formed the topic of innumerable articles in the popular press and elsewhere. Several attempts have been made to obtain a simple statistical measure of the reproductivity of a population at a particular time—that is, a measure of the extent to which a population will be replacing itself if current fertility and mortality continue indefinitely. It is the aim of this paper, in section 1,to discuss the simple approximate formulae that have been suggested;in section 2,to discuss some more elaborate and more efficient formulae;in section 3,to analyse the effect on the formulae of section 2 of a change in the proportions married at a given age;in section 4,to outline the male versus female rate anomaly;in section 5,to suggest a formula which avoids the anomaly; and finally,in section 6,to discuss the application of these formulae to Australian population statistics.

The Measurement of the Rate of Population Growth

1934 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-77
Author(s):  
C. D Rich
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Past History ◽  
Popular Press ◽  
The Past ◽  
Theoretical View ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Size And Structure

The size of the population of this country is a question of considerable interest and importance. Attention has been drawn to it in recent years owing to the continued fall in the birth-rate, and it has formed the topic of innumerable articles in the popular press and elsewhere. The subject of population growth is one on which the actuary should be most qualified to judge and yet it is seldom discussed by actuaries as a whole. The reason probably is that to some extent it is cut and dried; the past history of the size and structure of the population is recorded and analysed in official publications and calls for little argument, while future estimates where they cannot be made by fairly straightforward methods are largely a matter of guesswork. The problem of the rate of population growth has been investigated from a theoretical view very fully by certain foreign writers. The purpose of this paper is to give a description of one aspect of the subject and to illustrate it by calculations based on the statistics of this country.

Dynamic monitoring of changes in medical and demographic indicators in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) from 1998 to 2018

2020 ◽  
pp. 33-36
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Rural Population ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Dynamic Monitoring ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Republic

We studied the medical and demographic indicators in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the last 20 years (1998–2018). A decrease in the population by 4,7 % (р<0,01) was revealed in the Russian Federation in the period 1998–2008, 3,4 % decrease, followed by its growth by 2,8 % (р<0,01); a decrease in the number of rural population in the republic and an increase in the urban population were observed. By the beginning of 2019, in comparison with the 2003 data, an increase in the population by 1.9% (р<0,01), a decrease in the number of able-bodied people in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) at the beginning of 2019, as compared to 1998, were revealed, by 8,2 %, in the Russian Federation – by 4,7 % (р<0,01). In the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) the birth rate remains high, the mortality rate is relatively low, and the natural population growth is maintained.

IMPLEMENTATION OF ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK IN PREDICTING BIRTH RATE IN BATAM CITY USING BACKPROPAGATION METHOD

JURTEKSI ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-94
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jufri
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Backpropagation Method ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City

Abstract: The population growth in Indonesia is increasing rapidly every year, so to help the government control the population growth through family planning programs, especially in the city of Batam. This study explains and describes one of the Artificial Terms Network methods, namely Backpropagation, where this method can predict what will happen in the future using data and information in the past. This study aims to predict the birth rate in the city of Batam to help the government with the family planning program. The data used is the annual data on the number of births in the city of Batam in 2016-2020 at The Civil Registry Office. To facilitate the analysis of research data, the data were tested using Matlab R2015b. In this study, the training process was carried out using 3 network architectures, namely 4-10-1, 5-18-1, and 4-43-1. Of these 3 architectures, the best is the 4-43-1 architecture with an accuracy rate of 91% and an MSE value of 0.0012205. The Backpropagation method can predict the amount of population growth in the city of Batam based on existing data in the past.           Keywords: artificial neural network; backpropagation; prediction   Abstrak: Pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk diindonesia yang setiap tahun meningkat dengan pesat, maka untuk membantu pemerintah mengendalikan jumlah pertumbuhan penduduk melalui program keluarga berencana khususnya dikota Batam. Penelitian ini  menjelaskan dan memaparkan tentang salah satu metode Jaringan Syarat Tiruan yaitu Backpropagation, dimana metode ini dapat memprediksi apa yang akan terjadi masa yang akan datang dengan menggunakan data dan informasi dimasa lalu. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi tingkat kelahiran di kota Batam sehingga membatu pemerintah untuk perencanaan keluarga berencana. Data yang digunakan yaitu data tahunan jumlah kelahiran di kota Batam pada tahun 2016-2020 pada Dinas Kependudukan dan Catatan Sipil. Untuk mempermudah analisis data penelitian maka, data diuji menggunakan Matlab R2015b. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan proses pelatihan menggunakan  3 arsitektur jaringan yaitu 4-10-1, 5-18-1, dan 4-43-1. Dari ke-3 arsitektur ini yang terbaik adalah arsitektur 4-43-1 dengan tingkat akurasi sebesar 91% dan nilai MSE 0,0012205. Metode backpropagation mampu memprediksi jumlah pertumbuhan penduduk di kota Batam berdasarkan data yang ada dimasa lalu. Kata kunci: backpropagation; jaringan syaraf tiruan; prediksi 

Exposure to Video Games and Decision Making

2019 ◽  
pp. 117-131
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Curcio ◽  
Sara Peracchia
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Video Games ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Computer Games ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Short Review ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Popular Press ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
The Brain

In the last years, it is ever more frequent to read popular press stories about the effects of video and/or computer games on the brain and on the behavior. In some cases, we can read something claiming that video games “damage the brain,” while in others these activities can “boost brain power,” and such conflicting proclamation create confusion about the real or potential effects of this activity on human beings. Thus, it is very interesting to deeply understand the effect that exposure to video games (VGs) can have on cognitive processes, with particular attention to decision making. Only a few studies have been carried out on this issue: the main aim of this contribution is to clarify these aspects, critically reviewing the existing scientific literature. Particular attention has been dedicated to normal and pathological players, different types of VGs, and moral aspects of decision making vulnerable to VGs. It has been concluded that research in this area is still in its early days, and this short review aims at discussing several issues and challenges that should be addressed to forward this research field.

scholarly journals Demographic Self-Regulation in Terms of Population Growth and Decline

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 84-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander B. Sinelnikov
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Natural Population ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Self Regulation ◽  
State Intervention ◽  
Environmental Situation ◽  
Size Number ◽  
Demographic Policy

The author of this article A.B. Sinelnikov polemizes with A.G. Vishnevsky and asks him several questions. Vishnevsky considers the population as a self-regulating system. This system itself brings its size (number of inhabitants) in line with the economic and environmental situation. Vishnevsky considers state intervention in the process of demographic self-regulation to be ineffective, when it comes to measures aimed at increasing birth rate. According to Sinelnikov, self-regulation can slow down population growth (“demographic explosion”). However, there is no self-regulation to protect against natural population decline (depopulation). This problem can only be solved through demographic policy.

Turkish birth rate will resist government policy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Rates

Underlying Turkey’s slowing population growth in 2020 is a steady decline in both the crude birth and fertility rates

Medical and demographic indicators of the Orenburg Region

2021 ◽  
pp. 65-71
Author(s):  
Lyubov Kuzminichna Grigorieva ◽  
Sergey Aleksandrovich Kuzmin
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Death Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Orenburg Region ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Gradual Process

The analysis of the medical and demographic indicators of the Orenburg Region from 2015 to 2019 showed that over this time period, there was a gradual process of population decline. The dynamics of the birth and death rates of the population was characterized by a stable decline. Over a five-year period, the birth rate decreased by 30.78 %, and the death rate by 8.8 %. The natural population growth in 2015 was positive, and since 2016, there has been a negative population growth, i.e. the number of citizens who died annually exceeded the number of births. The region has seen slight changes in the ratio of urban and rural residents. Life expectancy has increased for both sexes from 69.63 years in 2015 to 72.04 years in 2019. The growth of this indicator for men was 4.31 %, and for women — 2.43 %. Studies of the sex composition of the population of the Orenburg Region over the past five years have demonstrated that there have been minor changes in the ratio of the male and female population in the region under study. So, in 2015 and 2016, there were 1149 women per 1000 men; in 2017–1148, in 2018–1147, in 2019–1146. Over the studied period, the number of marriages registered in the Orenburg Region decreased from a maximum of 15418 in 2015 to a minimum of 12304 in 2019, which was 20.2 %. The number of divorces did not decrease so rapidly, from 8,717 maximum in 2015 to 8,424 minimum in 2019, which was 3.36 %. The adoption of managerial decisions aimed at improving the standard of living and health of the population, as well as the environmental situation at the level of legislative and executive authorities will contribute to an increase in life expectancy, reduction in the death rate, and an increase in the birth rate of the population.

Virtual Agency

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Spirit Possession ◽  
Pretend Play ◽  
Dissociative Identity Disorder ◽  
Human Agency ◽  
Popular Press ◽  
Role Enactment ◽  
The World

This chapter discusses the experience of losing the authorship of one's action to an imagined agent. This transformation is sufficiently bizarre that it has been something of an obsession in both the popular press and in scientific literature. Much of the liveliness of the field of anthropology, for instance, has to do with the documentation of intriguing practices of spirit possession in various cultures around the world. To confront the topic of virtual authorship, then, is to try to understand how the very seat of human agency can be transformed. The chapter examines action projection to imaginary agents of all kinds, beginning with ordinary forms of pretend play and role enactment, and proceeding to cases of channeling and mediumship, spirit possession, and dissociative identity disorder.

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