The long-term effect of climate change on productivity of winter wheat in Denmark: a scenario analysis using three crop models

2017 ◽  
Vol 155 (5) ◽  
pp. 733-750 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. OZTURK ◽  
B. SHARIF ◽  
S. BABY ◽  
M. JABLOUN ◽  
J. E. OLESEN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Cropping System ◽  
Organic N ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
International Panel ◽  
N Input ◽  
Grain Nitrogen

SUMMARYThe response of grain yield, grain nitrogen (N), phenological development and evapotranspiration of winter wheat to climate change was analysed over an 80-year period based on climate change predictions of four regional circulation models (RCMs) under the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) A1B emission scenario for the 21st century using three process-based models; A 20-year set (1991–2010) of observed daily climate data from Aarslev, Denmark was used to form the baseline, from which the RCM data were generated. The simulation of crop growth was performed with increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) levels and under continuous mono-cropping system at different N input rates. Results indicated that grain yield and grain N will be reduced in the future despite increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. While the increased N input may increase yield, it will not increase grain N. The present study suggested that in Denmark, alternative strategies for organic N acquisition of plants must be developed. Statistical analyses showed that while the crop models were the main source of uncertainty in estimating crop performance indicators in response to climate change, the choice of RCM was the main source of uncertainty in relation to baseline estimations.

scholarly journals Winter Wheat Adaptation to Climate Change in Turkey

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
Yuksel Kaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Control Treatment ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Wheat Genotypes ◽  
Plant Characteristics

Climate change scenarios reveal that Turkey’s wheat production area is under the combined effects of heat and drought stresses. The adverse effects of climate change have just begun to be experienced in Turkey’s spring and the winter wheat zones. However, climate change is likely to affect the winter wheat zone more severely. Fortunately, there is a fast, repeatable, reliable and relatively affordable way to predict climate change effects on winter wheat (e.g., testing winter wheat in the spring wheat zone). For this purpose, 36 wheat genotypes in total, consisting of 14 spring and 22 winter types, were tested under the field conditions of the Southeastern Anatolia Region, a representative of the spring wheat zone of Turkey, during the two cropping seasons (2017–2018 and 2019–2020). Simultaneous heat (>30 °C) and drought (<40 mm) stresses occurring in May and June during both growing seasons caused drastic losses in winter wheat grain yield and its components. Declines in plant characteristics of winter wheat genotypes, compared to those of spring wheat genotypes using as a control treatment, were determined as follows: 46.3% in grain yield, 23.7% in harvest index, 30.5% in grains per spike and 19.4% in thousand kernel weight, whereas an increase of 282.2% in spike sterility occurred. On the other hand, no substantial changes were observed in plant height (10 cm longer than that of spring wheat) and on days to heading (25 days more than that of spring wheat) of winter wheat genotypes. In general, taller winter wheat genotypes tended to lodge. Meanwhile, it became impossible to avoid the combined effects of heat and drought stresses during anthesis and grain filling periods because the time to heading of winter wheat genotypes could not be shortened significantly. In conclusion, our research findings showed that many winter wheat genotypes would not successfully adapt to climate change. It was determined that specific plant characteristics such as vernalization requirement, photoperiod sensitivity, long phenological duration (lack of earliness per se) and vulnerability to diseases prevailing in the spring wheat zone, made winter wheat difficult to adapt to climate change. The most important strategic step that can be taken to overcome these challenges is that Turkey’s wheat breeding program objectives should be harmonized with the climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Soil nitrate accumulation and leaching in conventional, optimized and organic cropping systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 64 (No. 4) ◽  
pp. 156-163
Author(s):  
Wang Dapeng ◽  
Zheng Liang ◽  
Gu Songdong ◽  
Shi Yuefeng ◽  
Liang Long ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Cropping Systems ◽  
Cropping System ◽  
N Leaching ◽  
N Accumulation ◽  
Organic System ◽  
Grain Yields

Excessive nitrogen (N) and water input, which are threatening the sustainability of conventional agriculture in the North China Plain (NCP), can lead to serious leaching of nitrate-N (NO<sub>3</sub><sup>–</sup>-N). This study evaluates grain yield, N and water consumption, NO<sub>3</sub><sup>–</sup>-N accumulation and leaching in conventional and two optimized winter wheat-summer maize double-cropping systems and an organic alfalfa-winter wheat cropping system. The results showed that compared to the conventional cropping system, the optimized systems could reduce N, water consumption and NO<sub>3</sub><sup>–</sup>-N leaching by 33, 35 and 67–74%, respectively, while producing nearly identical grain yields. In optimized systems, soil NO<sub>3</sub><sup>–</sup>-N accumulation within the root zone was about 80 kg N/ha most of the time. In the organic system, N input, water consumption and NO<sub>3</sub><sup>–</sup>-N leaching was reduced even more (by 71, 43 and 92%, respectively, compared to the conventional system). However, grain yield also declined by 46%. In the organic system, NO<sub>3</sub><sup>–</sup>-N accumulation within the root zone was generally less than 30 kg N/ha. The optimized systems showed a considerable potential to reduce N and water consumption and NO<sub>3</sub><sup>–</sup>-N leaching while maintaining high grain yields, and thus should be considered for sustainable agricultural development in the NCP.  

scholarly journals The content of Fusarium mycotoxins, grain yield and quality of winter wheat cultivars under organic and conventional cropping systems

2008 ◽  
Vol 54 (No. 9) ◽  
pp. 395-402 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Váňová ◽  
K. Klem ◽  
P. Míša ◽  
P. Matušinsky ◽  
J. Hajšlová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Protein Content ◽  
Crop Rotation ◽  
Cropping System ◽  
Kernel Weight ◽  
National Standard ◽  
Bread Making ◽  
Volume Weight ◽  
Significant Difference

Nine cultivars of winter wheat were compared in organic and conventional crop rotation systems. Bread-making quality was evaluated using three parameters [thousand-kernel weight (TKW) in g, volume weight in g/l, protein content in %]. Grain yield, TKW and protein content of winter wheat in organic cropping system were significantly lower as compared to any intensity in conventional cropping system. However, clover as a preceding crop to winter wheat in organic crop rotation ensured a sufficient amount of nitrogen for grain yield, which was 6.72 t/ha on average of the three years. The requirement of the Czech national standard for bread wheat minimum value of protein content (11.5%) was met in conventional crop rotation in all cases. Average value of protein content in organic crop rotation met this limit too, but it was below the required value in two cases. The required value (760 g/l) of volume weight was met in majority of cases in organic crop rotation. The following species of the genus <I>Fusarium were</I> found: <I>F. culmorum, F. graminearum, F. poae</I> and <I>F. avenaceum</I>. All samples were screened for the content of deoxynivalenol (DON). There was no significant difference in the DON content between winter wheat grain from organic crop rotation and conventional crop rotation at high intensity.

scholarly journals Impacts of future climate change on potential yields of major crops in China

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 617-647
Author(s):  
Y. Yin ◽  
Q. Tang ◽  
X. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Potential Yield ◽  
Crop Models

Abstract. Climate change may affect crop development and yield, and consequently cast a shadow of doubt over China's food self-sufficiency efforts. In this study we used the model projections of a couple of global gridded crop models (GGCMs) to assess the effects of future climate change on the potential yields of the major crops (i.e. wheat, rice, maize and soybean) over China. The GGCMs were forced with the bias-corrected climate data from 5 global climate models (GCMs) under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 which were made available by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). The results show that the potential yields of rice may increase over a large portion of China. Climate change may benefit food productions over the high-altitude and cold regions where are outside current main agricultural area. However, the potential yield of maize, soybean and wheat may decrease in a large portion of the current main crop planting areas such as North China Plain. Development of new agronomic management strategy may be useful for coping with climate change in the areas with high risk of yield reduction.

scholarly journals Water footprint of winter wheat under climate change: Trends and uncertainties associated to the ensemble of crop models

2019 ◽  
Vol 658 ◽  
pp. 1186-1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pasquale Garofalo ◽  
Domenico Ventrella ◽  
Kurt Christian Kersebaum ◽  
Anne Gobin ◽  
Miroslav Trnka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Crop Models

Evaluating planting date and variety management strategies for adapting winter wheat to climate change impacts in arid regions

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 846-863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iman Hesam Arefi ◽  
Mehri Saffari ◽  
Rooholla Moradi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Planting Date ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Wheat Grain ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Early Maturing

Purpose The purpose of this study is to simulate the climate change impacts on winter wheat production and evaluate the possibilities of using various varieties and shifting planting date as two climate change adaptation strategies in Kerman Province, Iran. Design/methodology/approach Two types of global circulation model and three scenarios for three periods were used. Daily climatic parameters were generated by LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator). The CERES-wheat model was used to simulate future winter wheat growth, development and production. Findings The results showed that CO2 had no effect on the phenology of winter wheat, and the negative impact of temperature on the grain yield was higher than the positive effect of CO2 enrichment. The length of the reproductive growth period of the winter wheat was significantly shortened as affected by the negative impacts of rise in temperature. The simulated results indicated that the grain yield of common (medium maturing) variety of winter wheat will decline, ranging from −0.27 to −18.71 per cent according to future climate changes. Adaptation strategies showed that the early maturing variety had a higher and more stable grain yield under climate change conditions than medium and delayed maturing varieties. Earlier planting date (20 October) increased wheat grain yield under future climatic conditions than common (November 5) planting date. In reverse, later planting (November 20) would accelerate harmful effects of climate change on wheat grain yield. Originality/value The results highlighted the potential of early maturing variety and early planting date as the appropriate agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful impacts of climate change on winter wheat production in arid regions.

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